<p>有些预测非常大胆，而另一些则可能很快成为现实。我即将做出一个属于后者的预测。</p>
<p>我预测 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 0.01%) 即将超过 <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT 0.89%)，成为全球最有价值的公司。当我说 “即将超过” 时，我的意思是这可能在接下来的几周甚至几天内发生。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg3NzAvZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItd2l0aC1pdC1zcGVjaWFsaXN0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg3NzAvZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItd2l0aC1pdC1zcGVjaWFsaXN0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 已经紧追 Microsoft</h2>
<p>我并不是在大胆预测。Nvidia 只需要大约 4% 的涨幅，其市值就能超过 Microsoft。只需一些好消息就足以让这家图形处理单元 (GPU) 制造商实现这一目标。我们可能不需要等太久。</p>
<p>Nvidia 计划在 2025 年 5 月 28 日市场收盘后公布其 2026 财年第一季度的业绩，季度更新通常会提供积极的催化剂。Nvidia 的财年第一季度更新是否足以引发 4% 或更高的涨幅？绝对有可能。</p>
<p>华尔街预计 Nvidia 将报告约 430 亿美元的收入和每股 0.87 美元的收益。该公司的第一季度指引预计收入与分析师的预期相符，波动范围在正负 2% 之内。</p>
<p>不过，如果 Nvidia 的收入和收益显著超出预期，其股票可能会飙升。也许更好的故事是，如果公司对未来一年的展望特别乐观。</p>
<p>Nvidia 的季度更新是否一定能给它带来超越 Microsoft 的所需推动？不一定。然而，积极的消息至少可以为 Nvidia 在接下来的几个月中逐步提升市值铺平道路，并最终成为全球最有价值的公司。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 和 Microsoft 的比较</h2>
<p>当然，Microsoft 的市值也可能增长得和 Nvidia 一样快，甚至更快。但我认为这不会发生。为什么？让我们看看这两只科技股之间的比较。</p>
<p>首先，在收入增长方面，Nvidia 远远超过 Microsoft。Microsoft 在其 2025 财年第三季度（截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日）报告了 13% 的同比收入增长。Nvidia 在其 2025 财年第四季度的收入同比飙升了 78%。</p>
<p>在收益方面也是类似的故事。Microsoft 最近一个季度的收益同比增长了 18%。而 Nvidia 的收益（基于公认会计原则 GAAP）同比飙升了 82%，其非 GAAP 收益比去年同期高出 78%。</p>
<p>重要的是，Microsoft 的增长已经在其股价中反映得更多，而 Nvidia 则相对较少。Microsoft 的市盈率增长比率 (PEG) 为 2.13，基于分析师的五年收益增长预测。Nvidia 的 PEG 比率为 1.94，反映出在考虑增长前景时更具吸引力的估值。</p>
<h2>这个预测可能会如何错误？</h2>
<p>当我做出预测时，我喜欢承认我可能会错——而且我可能会错在 Nvidia 超过 Microsoft 上。如果真是这样，可能是因为对美国贸易政策的担忧、对人工智能 (AI) 芯片需求放缓以及竞争加剧使 Nvidia 受到限制。</p>
<p>由于这些问题，我也可能只是短暂地正确。Nvidia 的市值可能会暂时超过 Microsoft，但很快又会失去领先地位。</p>
<p>另一方面，我的预测也可能会以惊人的方式实现，并且是可持续的。我可以想象一些可能发生的情景。例如，重大的人工智能突破（也许是人工通用智能）可能会导致对 Nvidia 的 GPU 需求激增。</p>
<p>我们可能很快就会知道 Nvidia 是否会成为全球最有价值的公司。即使没有，我也预计该股票在本十年剩余时间内将为投资者带来强劲回报。</p>

英伟达

<p>预计英伟达将在几周内超越微软，成为全球最有价值的公司，仅需市场价值增长 4%。随着 2025 年 5 月 28 日财年第一季度业绩的公布，华尔街预计收入为 430 亿美元，每股收益为 0.87 美元。英伟达的收入增长速度超过微软，其 PEG 比率表明更具吸引力的估值。然而，潜在风险包括贸易政策担忧和人工智能芯片需求。重大的人工智能突破可能进一步提升英伟达的地位，为投资者在未来几年带来丰厚回报</p>

<p>Some predictions are far out on a limb, while others could easily become reality. I'm about to make one that's in the latter category.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有些预测非常大胆，而另一些则可能很快成为现实。我即将做出一个属于后者的预测。</p>
</div><p>I predict that <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 0.01%) is about to leap past <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT 0.89%) to become the world's most valuable company. And when I say &#34;about to leap past,&#34; I mean it could happen within the next few weeks or even days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我预测 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 0.01%) 即将超过 <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT 0.89%)，成为全球最有价值的公司。当我说 “即将超过” 时，我的意思是这可能在接下来的几周甚至几天内发生。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg3NzAvZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItd2l0aC1pdC1zcGVjaWFsaXN0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F818770%2Fdata-center-with-it-specialist.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia's already breathing down Microsoft's neck</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 已经紧追 Microsoft</h2>
</div><p>I'm by no means going out on a limb with my prediction. Nvidia only needs a gain of around 4% for its market cap to eclipse Microsoft's. All it would take is some good news for the graphics processing unit (GPU) maker. We might not have to wait long.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我并不是在大胆预测。Nvidia 只需要大约 4% 的涨幅，其市值就能超过 Microsoft。只需一些好消息就足以让这家图形处理单元 (GPU) 制造商实现这一目标。我们可能不需要等太久。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia is scheduled to announce results for its fiscal 2026 first quarter following the market close on May 28, 2025, and quarterly updates can frequently provide positive catalysts. Could Nvidia's fiscal Q1 update be enough to spark a gain of 4% or more? Absolutely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 计划在 2025 年 5 月 28 日市场收盘后公布其 2026 财年第一季度的业绩，季度更新通常会提供积极的催化剂。Nvidia 的财年第一季度更新是否足以引发 4% 或更高的涨幅？绝对有可能。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street expects Nvidia to report revenue of roughly $43 billion and earnings of $0.87 per share. The company's Q1 guidance calls for revenue in line with analysts' estimates, within a range of plus or minus 2%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街预计 Nvidia 将报告约 430 亿美元的收入和每股 0.87 美元的收益。该公司的第一季度指引预计收入与分析师的预期相符，波动范围在正负 2% 之内。</p>
</div><p>Should Nvidia significantly beat revenue and earnings expectations, though, its stock could soar. Perhaps an even better story to come out of its Q1 update, though, would be if the company provides an especially upbeat outlook for the rest of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，如果 Nvidia 的收入和收益显著超出预期，其股票可能会飙升。也许更好的故事是，如果公司对未来一年的展望特别乐观。</p>
</div><p>Is it a slam dunk that Nvidia's quarterly update will give it the needed bump to vault past Microsoft? No. However, positive news could at least set the stage for Nvidia to slowly build its market cap over the next few months and still become the world's most highly valued company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 的季度更新是否一定能给它带来超越 Microsoft 的所需推动？不一定。然而，积极的消息至少可以为 Nvidia 在接下来的几个月中逐步提升市值铺平道路，并最终成为全球最有价值的公司。</p>
</div><h2>How Nvidia and Microsoft stack up</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 和 Microsoft 的比较</h2>
</div><p>Of course, Microsoft's market cap could grow just as fast -- or even faster than -- Nvidia's. I don't think that will happen, though. Why? Let's look at how these two tech stocks stack up against each other.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，Microsoft 的市值也可能增长得和 Nvidia 一样快，甚至更快。但我认为这不会发生。为什么？让我们看看这两只科技股之间的比较。</p>
</div><p>First, Nvidia beats Microsoft like a drum when it comes to revenue growth. Microsoft reported year-over-year revenue growth of 13% in its fiscal 2025 Q3, which ended on March 31, 2025. Nvidia's revenue soared 78% year over year in its fiscal 2025 Q4.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，在收入增长方面，Nvidia 远远超过 Microsoft。Microsoft 在其 2025 财年第三季度（截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日）报告了 13% 的同比收入增长。Nvidia 在其 2025 财年第四季度的收入同比飙升了 78%。</p>
</div><p>It's a similar story with earnings. Microsoft's earnings jumped 18% year over year in its latest quarter. Nvidia's earnings, based on generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), skyrocketed 82% year over year, while its non-GAAP earnings were 78% higher than the prior-year period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在收益方面也是类似的故事。Microsoft 最近一个季度的收益同比增长了 18%。而 Nvidia 的收益（基于公认会计原则 GAAP）同比飙升了 82%，其非 GAAP 收益比去年同期高出 78%。</p>
</div><p>Importantly, more of Microsoft's growth is baked into its share price than is the case for Nvidia. Microsoft's price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio (PEG), which is based on analysts' five-year earnings growth projections, is 2.13. Nvidia's PEG ratio is 1.94, reflecting a more attractive valuation when growth prospects are factored in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，Microsoft 的增长已经在其股价中反映得更多，而 Nvidia 则相对较少。Microsoft 的市盈率增长比率 (PEG) 为 2.13，基于分析师的五年收益增长预测。Nvidia 的 PEG 比率为 1.94，反映出在考虑增长前景时更具吸引力的估值。</p>
</div><h2>How could this prediction be wrong?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这个预测可能会如何错误？</h2>
</div><p>When I make a prediction, I like to acknowledge that I could be wrong -- and I could be wrong about Nvidia leaping past Microsoft. If that turns out to be the case, it will probably be because concerns about U.S. trade policies, slowing demand for artificial intelligence (AI chips), and increasing competition hold Nvidia back.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当我做出预测时，我喜欢承认我可能会错——而且我可能会错在 Nvidia 超过 Microsoft 上。如果真是这样，可能是因为对美国贸易政策的担忧、对人工智能 (AI) 芯片需求放缓以及竞争加剧使 Nvidia 受到限制。</p>
</div><p>I could also be right only briefly as a result of these issues. It's quite possible that Nvidia's market cap will temporarily grow larger than Microsoft's, only to quickly relinquish the lead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于这些问题，我也可能只是短暂地正确。Nvidia 的市值可能会暂时超过 Microsoft，但很快又会失去领先地位。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, my prediction could come true spectacularly and sustainably. I can envision some scenarios where this could happen. For example, a major AI breakthrough (perhaps with artificial general intelligence) could create surging demand for Nvidia's GPUs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，我的预测也可能会以惊人的方式实现，并且是可持续的。我可以想象一些可能发生的情景。例如，重大的人工智能突破（也许是人工通用智能）可能会导致对 Nvidia 的 GPU 需求激增。</p>
</div><p>We could soon find out if Nvidia will become the world's most valuable company. Even if it doesn't, I expect the stock to deliver strong returns for investors over the rest of this decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们可能很快就会知道 Nvidia 是否会成为全球最有价值的公司。即使没有，我也预计该股票在本十年剩余时间内将为投资者带来强劲回报。</p>
</div>

Prediction: Nvidia Is About to Leap Past Microsoft to Become the World's Most Valuable Company

- Nvidia 可能在未来几周内超越微软，成为全球最有价值公司。  
- 预计 Nvidia 财报将显示约 430 亿美元收入，盈利 0.87 美元每股。  
- 若超出预期，Nvidia 股价可能大幅上涨，推动市值增长。  

预测：英伟达即将超越微软，成为全球市值最高的公司