<p>投资者对 <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 0.20%)(GOOGL 0.17%) 的股票持极其负面的看法。从表面上看，他们可能有充分的理由这样认为，因为 Alphabet 的主要业务正受到各方的攻击。对 Alphabet 当前运营的三大主要威胁是：人工智能、经济逆风和政府。这三者都可能给 Alphabet 带来麻烦，但我仍然认为这些担忧不足以解释 Alphabet 的股票价格如此低廉。</p>
<p>Alphabet 的股票很少会便宜到这种程度，现在可能是十年来一次的机会，以历史低估值购买其股票。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTgzODEvY2VsZWJyYXRpbmctc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LXN1Y2Nlc3MuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTgzODEvY2VsZWJyYXRpbmctc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LXN1Y2Nlc3MuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>对 Alphabet 业务的威胁是真实的</h2>
<p>首先，让我们来解决我为 Alphabet 的业务概述的三大担忧。显然，人工智能是投资者担心的一个问题，尤其是当 <strong>Apple</strong>(NASDAQ: AAPL) 的高管在联邦法庭作证时，他们认为传统搜索引擎将被人工智能取代。谷歌搜索在第一季度占据了 56% 的收入，因此这显然是其商业模式的重要组成部分。</p>
<p>认为 Alphabet 的管理层对这一威胁完全视而不见是一个错误，他们正在通过在谷歌搜索引擎的结果顶部推广人工智能搜索摘要来应对。这在许多消费者之间架起了传统搜索与人工智能之间的桥梁，这可能足以让谷歌保持领先。此外，谷歌搜索在第一季度的收入同比增长了 10%。生成式人工智能模型已经推出近三年，如果使用谷歌搜索的人流失，结果现在应该已经显现出来。</p>
<p>转向一般广告收入，Alphabet 对这一收入来源的依赖极大。在第一季度，77% 的收入来自广告（谷歌搜索被归入这一领域）。广告是周期性的，广告需求随着整体经济情绪的变化而起伏。许多企业担心我们正直接走向衰退，原因是关税。无论这种情况是否会发生，这里真正的问题是；投资者需要知道广告收入随着经济周期的波动而波动。因此，仅仅因为 Alphabet 的广告收入未来可能会下降，并不意味着一旦经济恢复正常，它不会迅速反弹。</p>
<p>最后，Alphabet 被判定为经营两项非法垄断，一项是在搜索业务，另一项是在其广告平台上。提出的补救措施之一是强迫 Alphabet 出售其谷歌浏览器，尽管在这一方面仍有更多讨论。我们仍然远未知道政府将如何拆分 Alphabet，如果真的拆分。此外，各种上诉程序可能会将此案提交至最高法院，这将需要更多时间。</p>
<p>预测此案的结果几乎是不可能的，投资者也不应尝试。然而，市场已经假设会有负面结果，这就是为什么该股票的交易价格如此便宜。</p>
<h2>Alphabet 的股票很少如此便宜</h2>
<p>从市盈率（P/E）的角度来看，Alphabet 的股票很少达到这些估值水平。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/92e8461f7679c73d89723d70ba26853f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/92e8461f7679c73d89723d70ba26853f.png"/></p>
<p>GOOGL 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>如果投资者看到一只股票的交易价格为 18 倍的过去收益，而在第一季度收入和每股收益（EPS）分别增长了 12% 和 49%，你会认为这是一个毫无疑问的买入机会。但由于 Alphabet 的名字与之相关，投资者却感到担忧。</p>
<p>市场对 Alphabet 面临的外部威胁极为担忧，尽管这些威胁是真实存在的，但我认为市场已经为这三者的最坏情况定价，尽管我认为 Alphabet 在应对其中两个威胁方面准备充分（政府威胁是真实的，但无法预测）。</p>
<p>因此，我认为投资者可以谨慎地在 Alphabet 股票上建立头寸，预计它可能需要一些时间才能恢复。如果恢复，它可能会成为未来十年表现最佳的投资之一，得益于增长和估值扩张的双重推动。</p>

谷歌-A

谷歌-C

<p>投资者目前对 Alphabet（GOOG, GOOGL）股票持负面态度，原因包括人工智能的威胁、经济逆风和政府监管。尽管存在这些担忧，该股票的估值处于历史低位，提供了潜在的买入机会。Alphabet 来自 Google 搜索的收入同比增长了 10%，虽然广告收入具有周期性，但随着经济复苏可能会反弹。该股票的市盈率较低，暗示其可能被低估。投资者被鼓励谨慎考虑 Alphabet 股票的长期增长潜力</p>

<p>Investors are incredibly negative on <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 0.20%)(GOOGL 0.17%) stock. On the surface, they may have a good reason to be, as Alphabet's primary business is under attack from all directions. There are three primary threats to Alphabet's current operation: AI, economic headwinds, and government. All three of these could spell trouble for Alphabet, but I still think that these concerns aren't enough to warrant Alphabet's dirt cheap stock price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者对 <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 0.20%)(GOOGL 0.17%) 的股票持极其负面的看法。从表面上看，他们可能有充分的理由这样认为，因为 Alphabet 的主要业务正受到各方的攻击。对 Alphabet 当前运营的三大主要威胁是：人工智能、经济逆风和政府。这三者都可能给 Alphabet 带来麻烦，但我仍然认为这些担忧不足以解释 Alphabet 的股票价格如此低廉。</p>
</div><p>Alphabet's stock rarely gets this cheap, and right now could be a once-in-a-decade opportunity to scoop up shares at a historically low valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alphabet 的股票很少会便宜到这种程度，现在可能是十年来一次的机会，以历史低估值购买其股票。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTgzODEvY2VsZWJyYXRpbmctc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LXN1Y2Nlc3MuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F818381%2Fcelebrating-stock-market-success.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The threats to Alphabet's business are real</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>对 Alphabet 业务的威胁是真实的</h2>
</div><p>First, let's tackle the three concerns that I've outlined for Alphabet's business. AI is obviously one that investors are worried about, especially when high-ranking managers from <strong>Apple</strong>(NASDAQ: AAPL) testify in a federal court that they believe traditional search engines will be replaced by AI. Google search accounted for 56% of revenue in Q1, so this is clearly a massive part of its business model.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，让我们来解决我为 Alphabet 的业务概述的三大担忧。显然，人工智能是投资者担心的一个问题，尤其是当 <strong>Apple</strong>(NASDAQ: AAPL) 的高管在联邦法庭作证时，他们认为传统搜索引擎将被人工智能取代。谷歌搜索在第一季度占据了 56% 的收入，因此这显然是其商业模式的重要组成部分。</p>
</div><p>To think that Alphabet's management is completely blind to this threat is a mistake, and they're combating it by promoting AI search summaries at the top of results on its Google search engine. This bridges the gap between traditional search and AI for many consumers, which may be enough to keep Google at the top. Additionally, Google search saw its revenue rise 10% year over year in the first quarter. Generative AI models have been out for nearly three years now, and if there were an exodus from using Google search, it likely would have shown up in the results by now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>认为 Alphabet 的管理层对这一威胁完全视而不见是一个错误，他们正在通过在谷歌搜索引擎的结果顶部推广人工智能搜索摘要来应对。这在许多消费者之间架起了传统搜索与人工智能之间的桥梁，这可能足以让谷歌保持领先。此外，谷歌搜索在第一季度的收入同比增长了 10%。生成式人工智能模型已经推出近三年，如果使用谷歌搜索的人流失，结果现在应该已经显现出来。</p>
</div><p>Moving to general advertising revenue, Alphabet is incredibly dependent on this revenue stream. In Q1, 77% of revenue came from advertisements (Google search is grouped into this area). Advertising is cyclical, as demand for ads rises and falls with general economic sentiment. Many businesses fear that we're heading directly for a recession due to tariffs. Whether this pans out isn't really the point here; investors need to know that advertising revenue rises and falls with economic cycles. So, just because Alphabet's ad revenue <em>may</em> fall in the future, it doesn't mean it won't come roaring back once the economy has gotten back on track.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>转向一般广告收入，Alphabet 对这一收入来源的依赖极大。在第一季度，77% 的收入来自广告（谷歌搜索被归入这一领域）。广告是周期性的，广告需求随着整体经济情绪的变化而起伏。许多企业担心我们正直接走向衰退，原因是关税。无论这种情况是否会发生，这里真正的问题是；投资者需要知道广告收入随着经济周期的波动而波动。因此，仅仅因为 Alphabet 的广告收入未来可能会下降，并不意味着一旦经济恢复正常，它不会迅速反弹。</p>
</div><p>Lastly, Alphabet has been found guilty of operating two illegal monopolies, one in the search business and another on its advertising platform. One of the remedies that has been proposed is forcing Alphabet to sell its Google Chrome browser, although there is still more discussion involved on this front. We're still far from knowing how the government will break up Alphabet, if it does so at all. Additionally, various appeal processes will likely land this case in front of the Supreme Court, which will take even more time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，Alphabet 被判定为经营两项非法垄断，一项是在搜索业务，另一项是在其广告平台上。提出的补救措施之一是强迫 Alphabet 出售其谷歌浏览器，尽管在这一方面仍有更多讨论。我们仍然远未知道政府将如何拆分 Alphabet，如果真的拆分。此外，各种上诉程序可能会将此案提交至最高法院，这将需要更多时间。</p>
</div><p>Predicting the outcome of this case is practically impossible, and investors shouldn't attempt to. However, the market has already assumed that there will be a negative result, which is why the stock trades for as cheap a price tag as it does.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预测此案的结果几乎是不可能的，投资者也不应尝试。然而，市场已经假设会有负面结果，这就是为什么该股票的交易价格如此便宜。</p>
</div><h2>Alphabet's stock is seldom this cheap</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Alphabet 的股票很少如此便宜</h2>
</div><p>From a price-to-earnings (P/E) standpoint, Alphabet's stock rarely reaches these valuation levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从市盈率（P/E）的角度来看，Alphabet 的股票很少达到这些估值水平。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/92e8461f7679c73d89723d70ba26853f.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/92e8461f7679c73d89723d70ba26853f.png"/></p>
<p>GOOGL PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>GOOGL 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>If an investor were presented a stock that trades at 18 times trailing earnings that grew revenue and earnings per share (EPS) by 12% and 49%, respectively, in Q1, you'd think this was a no-brainer buy.But, because Alphabet's name is attached to it, investors are worried.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果投资者看到一只股票的交易价格为 18 倍的过去收益，而在第一季度收入和每股收益（EPS）分别增长了 12% 和 49%，你会认为这是一个毫无疑问的买入机会。但由于 Alphabet 的名字与之相关，投资者却感到担忧。</p>
</div><p>The market is incredibly concerned about external threats facing Alphabet, and while those threats are real, I think the market has already priced in a worst-case scenario for all three, even though I think Alphabet is well equipped to face two of them (the government threat is real but impossible to predict).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场对 Alphabet 面临的外部威胁极为担忧，尽管这些威胁是真实存在的，但我认为市场已经为这三者的最坏情况定价，尽管我认为 Alphabet 在应对其中两个威胁方面准备充分（政府威胁是真实的，但无法预测）。</p>
</div><p>As a result, I think investors can cautiously take a position in Alphabet stock with the expectation that it might take some time for it to recover. If it does, it could be one of the best-performing investments over the next decade thanks to a one-two punch of growth and multiple expansion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，我认为投资者可以谨慎地在 Alphabet 股票上建立头寸，预计它可能需要一些时间才能恢复。如果恢复，它可能会成为未来十年表现最佳的投资之一，得益于增长和估值扩张的双重推动。</p>
</div>

A Once-in-a-Decade Opportunity: Here's Why I'm Buying Alphabet Stock Like There's No Tomorrow

- 投资者对 Alphabet 的股票持极度负面态度，主要因 AI、经济逆风和政府监管三大威胁。  
- 尽管面临挑战，Alphabet 的股票估值极低，可能是十年一遇的买入机会。  
- 第一季度广告收入增长 10%，显示出其业务韧性，投资者可谨慎布局。

十年难得的机会：这就是为什么我迫不及待地购买 Alphabet 股票