<p><strong>英特尔</strong>（INTC -0.70%）曾是长期投资者可靠的蓝筹股支柱。作为全球最大的 x86 CPU 制造商，专注于个人电脑和服务器，它实现了稳定的增长，持续回购自己的股票，并支付了可靠的股息。</p>
<p>不幸的是，其净收入在过去六年中持续下降，过去四年没有回购任何股票，并且在 2024 年底暂停了股息。在过去五年中，其股价暴跌超过 60%，而 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 则翻了一番。去年 11 月，它还被剔除出 <strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong>。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg3MzEvaWxsdXN0cmF0aW9uLW9mLWEtc2VtaWNvbmR1Y3Rvci5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg3MzEvaWxsdXN0cmF0aW9uLW9mLWEtc2VtaWNvbmR1Y3Rvci5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>英特尔的衰退主要是由于其自有工厂的制造问题、市场份额被复苏的 <strong>超微半导体</strong> 夺走，以及在过去七年中四位不同首席执行官下的剧烈战略转变。但价值寻求型投资者是否应该在英特尔的股价处于十多年最低水平时冒险投资？</p>
<h2>这家芯片巨头发生了什么？</h2>
<p>在过去几十年中，英特尔犯了几个重大错误。它没有授权 <strong>Arm Holdings</strong> 的技术来开发自己的移动芯片，而是拼命尝试销售自己的 Atom x86 移动设备芯片。然而，它的 Atom 芯片功耗效率较低，最终失去了整个移动市场，市场份额被基于 Arm 的芯片制造商如 <strong>高通</strong> 和联发科技夺走。</p>
<p>英特尔还在 1999 年停止了自己的独立 GPU 开发，转而专注于为其 CPU 生产性能较弱的集成 GPU。到 2022 年重新进入独立 GPU 市场时，市场已经被 <strong>英伟达</strong> 牢牢控制。</p>
<p>英伟达在独立 GPU 市场的主导地位使其成为全球顶尖的人工智能（AI）股票，因为这些芯片能够比独立 CPU 更高效地处理复杂的 AI 任务。由于未能发现这一长期机会，英特尔将蓬勃发展的 AI GPU 市场拱手让给了英伟达。</p>
<p>与此同时，英特尔的核心 x86 CPU 业务面临生存危机。随着芯片变得更小、更密集，其制造难度加大，并且在 2015 年至 2019 年从 14nm 过渡到 10nm 芯片的过程中遭遇了严重的延迟和短缺。在 2023 年从 10nm 芯片过渡到 7nm 芯片（重新命名为 Intel 4，以避免与 <strong>台积电</strong> 的节点进行直接比较）时，英特尔又遭遇了更多的延迟。</p>
<p>随着英特尔在制造自己的芯片方面挣扎，AMD 重新设计了其 CPU，并将生产外包给 TSMC 的优质工厂。因此，AMD 提供了稳定的、价格更低、更小、更密集的芯片，而英特尔则在持续的延迟中挣扎。根据 PassMark Software 的数据，英特尔在全球 x86 CPU 市场的份额从 2016 年第三季度的 82.5% 降至 2025 年第二季度的 58.6%。而 AMD 的份额则从 17.5% 上升至 39.9%。</p>
<h2>为什么英特尔的优先事项不断变化？</h2>
<p>英特尔的问题因其首席执行官的频繁更换而加剧。在 2018 年辞职的布莱恩·克赞尼奇任内，英特尔通过过多的相邻收购使其业务 “多元化”，而不是加强其核心代工业务。他的继任者鲍勃·斯旺过于专注于削减成本和回购股票，甚至在 2021 年被解雇之前短暂考虑关闭其代工厂，成为像 AMD 一样的 “无厂芯片制造商”。</p>
<p>接替斯旺的帕特·基尔辛格则加大了扩展英特尔代工厂的力度，以赶上 TSMC 和三星在制造更小、更密集芯片的 “工艺竞赛” 中。但这一昂贵的努力在严峻的宏观环境中从未获得回报，基尔辛格在 2024 年底被解雇。</p>
<p>英特尔的新任首席执行官谭立夫希望英特尔提升其工程能力，开发更多集成 AI 功能的 CPU，并加强其核心代工业务，同时将部分芯片的生产外包给 TSMC。谭还计划在今年下半年裁员约五分之一的英特尔员工，并剥离其可编程芯片制造商 Altera，以简化业务。</p>
<h2>英特尔将会发生什么？</h2>
<p>至于其近期路线图，英特尔一直在加速其最新的 18A 工艺（可与 TSMC 的 2nm 节点相媲美），以支持其最新的 Panther Lake PC CPU 在 2025 年底的发布。它还预计将推出最新的 Granite Rapids Xeon 6 服务器 CPU。</p>
<p>这些新芯片可能会稳定其短期增长，但可能不足以阻止其长期衰退或抵御 TSMC、AMD 和英伟达的竞争。</p>
<p>英特尔仍致力于为无厂芯片制造商制造芯片，但首席财务官大卫·津纳最近承认，其代工服务的需求仍然有限。换句话说，它在合同芯片制造市场中仍可能远远落后于 TSMC 和三星。</p>
<p>从 2024 年到 2027 年，分析师预计英特尔的收入仅以 2% 的复合年增长率增长。他们预计到 2027 年将再次盈利——假设谭的扭转努力取得成效，英特尔能够跟上 TSMC 的步伐，并停止将市场拱手让给 AMD。但以每股 22 美元的价格，按 2027 年收益计算的市盈率为 23 倍，仍然不是一个便宜的选择——因此我会在更多积极信号出现之前保持观望。</p>

英特尔

<p>英特尔的股票大幅下跌，在过去五年中损失超过 60% 的价值，主要原因是制造问题、市场份额被 AMD 侵蚀以及多位首席执行官的战略失误。公司暂停了股息，并且在过去四年中没有回购股票。新任首席执行官林步坦（Lip-Bu Tan）旨在提升工程能力和精简运营，但英特尔在重新获得与台积电、AMD 和英伟达的竞争优势方面面临挑战。分析师预测，英特尔在 2024 年至 2027 年期间的收入增长有限，这引发了人们对其作为领先芯片制造商的长期生存能力的质疑</p>

<p><strong>Intel</strong>(INTC -0.70%) was once a reliable blue chip stalwart for long-term investors. As the world's largest manufacturer of x86 CPUs for PCs and servers, it generated stable growth, consistently bought back its own shares, and paid a dependable dividend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英特尔</strong>（INTC -0.70%）曾是长期投资者可靠的蓝筹股支柱。作为全球最大的 x86 CPU 制造商，专注于个人电脑和服务器，它实现了稳定的增长，持续回购自己的股票，并支付了可靠的股息。</p>
</div><p>Unfortunately, its net income has declined for the past six consecutive years, it hasn't bought back any shares over the past four years, and it suspended its dividend at the end of 2024. Its stock price plummeted more than 60% over the past five years as the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> more than doubled. It was also removed from the <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong> last November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不幸的是，其净收入在过去六年中持续下降，过去四年没有回购任何股票，并且在 2024 年底暂停了股息。在过去五年中，其股价暴跌超过 60%，而 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 则翻了一番。去年 11 月，它还被剔除出 <strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong>。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg3MzEvaWxsdXN0cmF0aW9uLW9mLWEtc2VtaWNvbmR1Y3Rvci5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F818731%2Fillustration-of-a-semiconductor.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Intel's decline was mainly caused by the manufacturing issues at its own foundries, its market share losses to a resurgent <strong>Adanced Micro Devices</strong>, and its jarring strategic shifts under four different CEOs over the past seven years. But should value-seeking investors take a chance on Intel's stock as it languishes at its lowest levels in more than a decade?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英特尔的衰退主要是由于其自有工厂的制造问题、市场份额被复苏的 <strong>超微半导体</strong> 夺走，以及在过去七年中四位不同首席执行官下的剧烈战略转变。但价值寻求型投资者是否应该在英特尔的股价处于十多年最低水平时冒险投资？</p>
</div><h2>What happened to the chipmaking giant?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这家芯片巨头发生了什么？</h2>
</div><p>Intel made several major mistakes over the past few decades. Instead of licensing <strong>Arm Holdings</strong>' technology to develop its own mobile chips, it desperately tried to sell its own Atom x86 chips for mobile devices. However, its Atom chips were less power-efficient, and it eventually lost the entire mobile market to Arm-based chipmakers like <strong>Qualcomm</strong> and MediaTek.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去几十年中，英特尔犯了几个重大错误。它没有授权 <strong>Arm Holdings</strong> 的技术来开发自己的移动芯片，而是拼命尝试销售自己的 Atom x86 移动设备芯片。然而，它的 Atom 芯片功耗效率较低，最终失去了整个移动市场，市场份额被基于 Arm 的芯片制造商如 <strong>高通</strong> 和联发科技夺走。</p>
</div><p>Intel also stopped developing its own discrete GPUs in 1999 to focus on producing weaker integrated GPUs for its CPUs. By the time it returned to the discrete GPU market in 2022, the market was already firmly controlled by <strong>Nvidia</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英特尔还在 1999 年停止了自己的独立 GPU 开发，转而专注于为其 CPU 生产性能较弱的集成 GPU。到 2022 年重新进入独立 GPU 市场时，市场已经被 <strong>英伟达</strong> 牢牢控制。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's dominance of the discrete GPU market turned it into the world's top artificial intelligence (AI) stock since those chips can process complex AI tasks much more efficiently than stand-alone CPUs. By failing to spot that long-term opportunity, Intel surrendered the booming AI GPU market to Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达在独立 GPU 市场的主导地位使其成为全球顶尖的人工智能（AI）股票，因为这些芯片能够比独立 CPU 更高效地处理复杂的 AI 任务。由于未能发现这一长期机会，英特尔将蓬勃发展的 AI GPU 市场拱手让给了英伟达。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Intel's core x86 CPU business faced an existential crisis. Its chips became harder to manufacture as they became smaller and denser, and it struggled with severe delays and shortages during its grueling transition from 14nm to 10nm chips between 2015 to 2019. It was plagued by even more delays with its transition from 10nm chips to 7nm chips (rebranded as Intel 4 to avoid direct comparisons against <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>'s nodes) in 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，英特尔的核心 x86 CPU 业务面临生存危机。随着芯片变得更小、更密集，其制造难度加大，并且在 2015 年至 2019 年从 14nm 过渡到 10nm 芯片的过程中遭遇了严重的延迟和短缺。在 2023 年从 10nm 芯片过渡到 7nm 芯片（重新命名为 Intel 4，以避免与 <strong>台积电</strong> 的节点进行直接比较）时，英特尔又遭遇了更多的延迟。</p>
</div><p>As Intel struggled to manufacture its own chips, AMD redesigned its CPUs and outsourced its production to TSMC's superior foundries. As a result, AMD provided a steady supply of cheaper, smaller, and denser chips as Intel struggled with ongoing delays. According to PassMark Software, Intel's share of the global x86 CPU market fell from 82.5% to 58.6% between the third quarter of 2016 and the second quarter of 2025. AMD's share rose from 17.5% to 39.9%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着英特尔在制造自己的芯片方面挣扎，AMD 重新设计了其 CPU，并将生产外包给 TSMC 的优质工厂。因此，AMD 提供了稳定的、价格更低、更小、更密集的芯片，而英特尔则在持续的延迟中挣扎。根据 PassMark Software 的数据，英特尔在全球 x86 CPU 市场的份额从 2016 年第三季度的 82.5% 降至 2025 年第二季度的 58.6%。而 AMD 的份额则从 17.5% 上升至 39.9%。</p>
</div><h2>Why did Intel's priorities keep changing?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么英特尔的优先事项不断变化？</h2>
</div><p>Intel's problems were exacerbated by its constant CEO changes. Under Brian Krzanich, who resigned in 2018, Intel &#34;di-worsified&#34; its business with too many adjacent acquisitions instead of strengthening its core foundry business. His successor, Bob Swan, focused too much on cutting costs and buying back shares, and even briefly considered shutting down its foundries to become a &#34;fabless&#34; chipmaker like AMD before he was fired in 2021.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英特尔的问题因其首席执行官的频繁更换而加剧。在 2018 年辞职的布莱恩·克赞尼奇任内，英特尔通过过多的相邻收购使其业务 “多元化”，而不是加强其核心代工业务。他的继任者鲍勃·斯旺过于专注于削减成本和回购股票，甚至在 2021 年被解雇之前短暂考虑关闭其代工厂，成为像 AMD 一样的 “无厂芯片制造商”。</p>
</div><p>Pat Gelsinger, who replaced Swan, then doubled down on expanding Intel's foundries to catch up to TSMC and Samsung in the &#34;process race&#34; to manufacture smaller and denser chips. But that costly effort never paid off in the challenging macro environment, and Gelsinger was dismissed in late 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>接替斯旺的帕特·基尔辛格则加大了扩展英特尔代工厂的力度，以赶上 TSMC 和三星在制造更小、更密集芯片的 “工艺竞赛” 中。但这一昂贵的努力在严峻的宏观环境中从未获得回报，基尔辛格在 2024 年底被解雇。</p>
</div><p>Intel's newest CEO, Lip-Bu Tan, wants Intel to improve its engineering capabilities, develop more CPUs with integrated AI features, and strengthen its core foundry business while outsourcing the production of some of its chips to TSMC. Tan also reportedly plans to lay off about a fifth of Intel's entire workforce and divest its programmable chipmaker, Altera, in the second half of this year to streamline its business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英特尔的新任首席执行官谭立夫希望英特尔提升其工程能力，开发更多集成 AI 功能的 CPU，并加强其核心代工业务，同时将部分芯片的生产外包给 TSMC。谭还计划在今年下半年裁员约五分之一的英特尔员工，并剥离其可编程芯片制造商 Altera，以简化业务。</p>
</div><h2>What will happen to Intel?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英特尔将会发生什么？</h2>
</div><p>As for its near-term roadmap, Intel has been ramping up its newest 18A process (comparable to TSMC's 2nm node) to support the launch of its newest Panther Lake CPUs for PCs in late 2025. It also expects to roll out its newest Granite Rapids Xeon 6 CPUs for servers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至于其近期路线图，英特尔一直在加速其最新的 18A 工艺（可与 TSMC 的 2nm 节点相媲美），以支持其最新的 Panther Lake PC CPU 在 2025 年底的发布。它还预计将推出最新的 Granite Rapids Xeon 6 服务器 CPU。</p>
</div><p>Those new chips might stabilize its near-term growth, but they might not be enough to halt its long-term decline or secure its defenses against TSMC, AMD, and Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些新芯片可能会稳定其短期增长，但可能不足以阻止其长期衰退或抵御 TSMC、AMD 和英伟达的竞争。</p>
</div><p>Intel remains committed to manufacturing chips for fabless chipmakers, but CFO David Zinsner recently admitted there was still only a limited demand for its foundry services. In other words, it's still probably far behind TSMC and Samsung in the contract chipmaking market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英特尔仍致力于为无厂芯片制造商制造芯片，但首席财务官大卫·津纳最近承认，其代工服务的需求仍然有限。换句话说，它在合同芯片制造市场中仍可能远远落后于 TSMC 和三星。</p>
</div><p>From 2024 to 2027, analysts expect Intel's revenue to only grow at a compound annual rate of 2%. They expect it to turn profitable again by 2027 -- assuming Tan's turnaround efforts pay off, it keeps pace with TSMC, and it stops ceding its market to AMD. But at $22 a share, it still isn't a bargain at 23 times its 2027 earnings -- so I'd stay away until more green shoots appear.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从 2024 年到 2027 年，分析师预计英特尔的收入仅以 2% 的复合年增长率增长。他们预计到 2027 年将再次盈利——假设谭的扭转努力取得成效，英特尔能够跟上 TSMC 的步伐，并停止将市场拱手让给 AMD。但以每股 22 美元的价格，按 2027 年收益计算的市盈率为 23 倍，仍然不是一个便宜的选择——因此我会在更多积极信号出现之前保持观望。</p>
</div>

Is Intel Stock a Buy Now?

- 英特尔的净收入连续六年下降，股价五年内下跌超过 60%。  
- 其市场份额从 2016 年的 82.5% 降至 2025 年的 58.6%。  
- 新 CEO 计划裁员并外包部分生产，预计 2024 至 2027 年收入年均增长仅 2%。

英特尔的股票现在是否值得购买？