<p><strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA -0.99%) 的股票最近经历了一些波动的交易。在因对先进人工智能（AI）硬件的需求前景和新进口税的担忧而下跌后，特朗普政府宣布放宽关税政策，公司的股价受益于爆发性的反弹动能。</p>
<p>随着英伟达股票在特朗普政府调整关税政策后飙升，投资者可能会想知道现在是否已经太晚而无法购买该股票。继续阅读，看看两位《傻瓜投资》贡献者对英伟达未来三年的前景的看法。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQxOTkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4NDE5MjYzNC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQxOTkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4NDE5MjYzNC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>英伟达在 AI 处理器和软件服务领域可能保持强大的领先地位</h2>
<p><strong>基思·努南：</strong> 自从 AI 革命在几年前迅速升温以来，英伟达一直处于先进图形处理单元（GPU）和加速器的前沿。目前，几乎没有迹象表明，包括 <strong>超微</strong> 和 <strong>英特尔</strong> 在内的竞争对手正在赶上该公司。中国设计师（包括华为）可能在某个时刻取得重大进展，但看起来对这些处理器的需求将主要集中在中国及其盟友中。</p>
<p>由于 AI 可能为公司和政府提供重大竞争优势，因此将继续有巨大的激励来大量投资于英伟达在高性能硬件方面的优势。更好的是，该公司通过其 CUDA 软件平台增强了竞争壁垒，帮助开发者充分利用 AI 处理器。这将使 AMD、英特尔和其他参与者在这一领域击败英伟达变得非常困难。</p>
<p>随着英伟达销售和利润表现出色，它在其他潜在爆炸性类别（包括自主 AI 软件和机器人技术）中也有更多的灵活性进行实验。包括 AMD 和英特尔在内的竞争对手在 AI 处理器领域的竞争已经相当艰难，这在假设上使他们在大规模支出以拓展核心竞争力之外的领域时灵活性降低。</p>
<p>随着重大宏观经济和地缘政治不确定性在前方，英伟达的股票在今年可能会继续经历显著的波动。另一方面，该公司在 AI 处理器领域的实力应继续帮助英伟达实现强劲的销售和收益，并推动进入其他业务类别。英伟达在未来三年仍面临一些重大风险，但我认为对该股票最紧迫的风险因素是可能影响整个市场的宏观经济和地缘政治动态。</p>
<h2>英伟达现在可能吸引价值投资者</h2>
<p><strong>詹妮弗·赛比尔：</strong> 在生成 AI 时代，英伟达在过去几年一直是一只赢家股票。然而，关于未来的一些不确定性使得很难判断它在三年后会处于何种位置，以及今天是否值得购买。</p>
<p>它在过去因其游戏产品而取得成功，但由于在快速扩展的生成 AI 领域的主导地位而成为家喻户晓的名字。对其 GPU 的需求激增，2025 财年第四季度（截至 1 月 26 日）的销售同比增长 78%，达到 390 亿美元。展望未来，管理层预测 2026 财年第一季度销售将增长 65%。首席执行官黄仁勋表示，持续的巨大需求可归因于公司最新一代的 AI 产品，名为 Blackwell。</p>
<p>管理层指出，其机会是多层次和广泛的。其产品现在服务于互联网和技术以外的多个行业，并且以比以前更多的方式被使用。特别相关的是对 GPU 驱动的数据中心的需求不断增长，或者说英伟达管理层称之为 AI 工厂。数据中心的工作范式正在改变，更加重视机器学习和生成 AI，使数据中心市场的机会从 1 万亿美元提升到 2 万亿美元。这一点尤其重要，因为数据中心现在占英伟达收入的 88%。</p>
<p>与任何新技术一样，新竞争者会试图复制好的东西，并试图以更低的价格做到这一点。像 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 和 <strong>苹果</strong> 这样的顶级科技公司正在努力设计专用 GPU，以更低的成本推动至少部分业务，即使他们目前仍依赖于英伟达。这意味着即使机会在增长，英伟达在其中的份额可能不会成比例增加，客户的更多选择也可能削弱其定价能力。</p>
<p>最后，将英伟达的估值纳入分析是有趣的。它的前瞻性一年市盈率仅为 24。这可能表明市场认为该公司正在放缓。股价下跌可能是因为市场正在定价竞争和饱和的影响。</p>
<p>另一方面，这可能只是因为该公司增长足够快，以跟上市场的预期，这意味着这只成长股是个便宜货。这可能意味着它被低估了，市场的认知与即将到来的现实之间的滞后可能会为耐心的投资者在未来三年创造意外之财。</p>

英伟达

<p>英伟达的股票因对人工智能硬件的需求担忧和新的进口税而经历了波动，但在关税政策变化后反弹。分析师预测，英伟达将在人工智能处理器领域保持领先，得益于强劲的销售和通过其 CUDA 平台获得的竞争优势。然而，宏观经济的不确定性可能导致股票持续波动。尽管过去表现出色，但未来仍存在不确定性，特别是随着竞争加剧和数据中心动态的变化。英伟达的估值表明市场对其增长持怀疑态度，当前的前瞻市盈率为 24</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.99%) stock has seen some volatile trading lately. After sinking in response to concerns about the demand outlook for advanced artificial intelligence (AI) hardware and new import taxes that threatened to destabilize global trade, the company's share price benefited from explosive rebound momentum after the Trump administration announced a softening of its tariff policies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA -0.99%) 的股票最近经历了一些波动的交易。在因对先进人工智能（AI）硬件的需求前景和新进口税的担忧而下跌后，特朗普政府宣布放宽关税政策，公司的股价受益于爆发性的反弹动能。</p>
</div><p>With Nvidia stock surging following the Trump administration's shift on tariff policies, investors may be wondering whether it's now too late to buy into the stock. Read on for a look at what two Motley Fool contributors think Nvidia's prospects are over the next three years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着英伟达股票在特朗普政府调整关税政策后飙升，投资者可能会想知道现在是否已经太晚而无法购买该股票。继续阅读，看看两位《傻瓜投资》贡献者对英伟达未来三年的前景的看法。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQxOTkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4NDE5MjYzNC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F814199%2Fgettyimages-1484192634.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia will likely retain a formidable lead in AI processors and software services</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达在 AI 处理器和软件服务领域可能保持强大的领先地位</h2>
</div><p><strong>Keith Noonan:</strong> Nvidia has been at the forefront of advanced graphics processing units (GPUs) and accelerators since the AI revolution started rapidly gaining steam a couple of years ago. Thus far, there's little indication that competitors, including <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> and <strong>Intel</strong>, are catching up to the company. Meaningful advances for Chinese designers, including Huawei, could emerge at some point, but it looks like demand for those processors will be largely concentrated in China and its allies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>基思·努南：</strong> 自从 AI 革命在几年前迅速升温以来，英伟达一直处于先进图形处理单元（GPU）和加速器的前沿。目前，几乎没有迹象表明，包括 <strong>超微</strong> 和 <strong>英特尔</strong> 在内的竞争对手正在赶上该公司。中国设计师（包括华为）可能在某个时刻取得重大进展，但看起来对这些处理器的需求将主要集中在中国及其盟友中。</p>
</div><p>With AI potentially providing major competitive advantages for both companies and governments, there will continue to be massive incentives to invest heavily in the kind of high-powered hardware that Nvidia has a big edge in. Even better, the company has strengthened its competitive moat through its CUDA software platform, which helps developers get the most out of AI processors. This will likely make it very difficult for AMD, Intel, and other players to beat Nvidia in the space.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于 AI 可能为公司和政府提供重大竞争优势，因此将继续有巨大的激励来大量投资于英伟达在高性能硬件方面的优势。更好的是，该公司通过其 CUDA 软件平台增强了竞争壁垒，帮助开发者充分利用 AI 处理器。这将使 AMD、英特尔和其他参与者在这一领域击败英伟达变得非常困难。</p>
</div><p>With Nvidia posting great sales and margins, it's also got more flexibility to experiment in other potentially explosive categories, including agentic AI software and robotics. Rivals, including AMD and Intel, are having a hard enough time competing in the AI processor space, and that hypothetically leaves them with less flexibility when it comes to spending big to branch outside their core competencies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着英伟达销售和利润表现出色，它在其他潜在爆炸性类别（包括自主 AI 软件和机器人技术）中也有更多的灵活性进行实验。包括 AMD 和英特尔在内的竞争对手在 AI 处理器领域的竞争已经相当艰难，这在假设上使他们在大规模支出以拓展核心竞争力之外的领域时灵活性降低。</p>
</div><p>With significant macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty on the horizon, there's a good chance that Nvidia stock will continue to see significant volatility this year. On the other hand, the company's strength in the AI processor space should continue to help Nvidia score strong sales and earnings and also facilitate pushes into other business categories. Nvidia still faces some substantial risks over the next three years, but I think the most pressing risk factors for the stock are potential macroeconomic and geopolitical dynamics that extend to the market at large.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着重大宏观经济和地缘政治不确定性在前方，英伟达的股票在今年可能会继续经历显著的波动。另一方面，该公司在 AI 处理器领域的实力应继续帮助英伟达实现强劲的销售和收益，并推动进入其他业务类别。英伟达在未来三年仍面临一些重大风险，但我认为对该股票最紧迫的风险因素是可能影响整个市场的宏观经济和地缘政治动态。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia could tempt value investors right now</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达现在可能吸引价值投资者</h2>
</div><p><strong>Jennifer Saibil:</strong> Nvidia had been a winning stock for years before it became a household name in the age of generative AI. Some uncertainties about the future, however, make it harder to determine where it could be in three years and whether it's worth buying today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>詹妮弗·赛比尔：</strong> 在生成 AI 时代，英伟达在过去几年一直是一只赢家股票。然而，关于未来的一些不确定性使得很难判断它在三年后会处于何种位置，以及今天是否值得购买。</p>
</div><p>It was a success in the past for its gaming products, but it became a household name thanks to its dominant position in the quickly expanding generative AI sector. Explosive demand for its GPUs continues, with sales jumping 78% year over year in fiscal 2025's fourth quarter (ended Jan. 26) to $39 billion. Looking ahead, management guidance called for sales to increase 65% in fiscal 2026's first quarter. CEO Jensen Huang said the continuing incredible demand can be attributed to the company's newest generation of AI products under the Blackwell name.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它在过去因其游戏产品而取得成功，但由于在快速扩展的生成 AI 领域的主导地位而成为家喻户晓的名字。对其 GPU 的需求激增，2025 财年第四季度（截至 1 月 26 日）的销售同比增长 78%，达到 390 亿美元。展望未来，管理层预测 2026 财年第一季度销售将增长 65%。首席执行官黄仁勋表示，持续的巨大需求可归因于公司最新一代的 AI 产品，名为 Blackwell。</p>
</div><p>Management noted how far-reaching and multilayered its opportunity is. Its products now serve multiple industries beyond internet and technology, and they are put to use in many more ways than before. Of particular relevance is the growing demand for GPU-driven data centers, or what Nvidia management calls AI factories. The entire paradigm of how a data center works is changing, with more emphasis on machine learning and generative AI, ramping up the data center market opportunity from $1 trillion to $2 trillion. This is of particular relevance because data centers now account for 88% of Nvidia's revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理层指出，其机会是多层次和广泛的。其产品现在服务于互联网和技术以外的多个行业，并且以比以前更多的方式被使用。特别相关的是对 GPU 驱动的数据中心的需求不断增长，或者说英伟达管理层称之为 AI 工厂。数据中心的工作范式正在改变，更加重视机器学习和生成 AI，使数据中心市场的机会从 1 万亿美元提升到 2 万亿美元。这一点尤其重要，因为数据中心现在占英伟达收入的 88%。</p>
</div><p>As with any new technology, new competition will try to copy a good thing and try to do it for a cheaper price. Top tech companies like <strong>Amazon</strong> and <strong>Apple</strong> are working to design specialized GPUs at a lower cost to drive at least some part of their operations, even if they still rely on Nvidia for the moment. That means even if the opportunity is growing, Nvidia's share of it might not increase proportionally, and more options for clients could also erode its pricing power.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与任何新技术一样，新竞争者会试图复制好的东西，并试图以更低的价格做到这一点。像 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 和 <strong>苹果</strong> 这样的顶级科技公司正在努力设计专用 GPU，以更低的成本推动至少部分业务，即使他们目前仍依赖于英伟达。这意味着即使机会在增长，英伟达在其中的份额可能不会成比例增加，客户的更多选择也可能削弱其定价能力。</p>
</div><p>Finally, it's interesting to add Nvidia's valuation to the analysis. It trades at a forward one-year P/E ratio of only 24. That could be an indication that the market thinks the company is slowing down. The drop in share price could be because the market is pricing in the effects of competition and saturation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，将英伟达的估值纳入分析是有趣的。它的前瞻性一年市盈率仅为 24。这可能表明市场认为该公司正在放缓。股价下跌可能是因为市场正在定价竞争和饱和的影响。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, it could just be that the company is growing fast enough to keep pace with the market's expectations, implying that this growth stock is a bargain. That could mean it's undervalued, and the lag between the market's perception and the reality of what's coming could create a windfall for patient investors over the next three years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，这可能只是因为该公司增长足够快，以跟上市场的预期，这意味着这只成长股是个便宜货。这可能意味着它被低估了，市场的认知与即将到来的现实之间的滞后可能会为耐心的投资者在未来三年创造意外之财。</p>
</div>

Where Will Nvidia Be in 3 Years?

- Nvidia 股票近期波动，受需求前景和关税政策影响。  
- 公司在 AI 处理器和软件服务领域保持领先，销售额大幅增长。  
- 尽管面临竞争和市场不确定性，Nvidia 仍有潜力吸引价值投资者。

英伟达在三年后会处于什么位置？