<p>想听一个惊人的数字吗？这里是：208,300%。这大约是 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN -1.33%）自 1997 年 5 月 15 日首次公开募股（IPO）以来所带来的收益。如果你当时投资了 10,000 美元并持有这只股票，今天你将拥有惊人的 208 万美元。</p>
<p>亚马逊未来无法再像公司仍然是新星时那样实现炙手可热的增长。然而，这并不意味着这只股票不能为投资者带来丰厚的回报。我预测亚马逊在未来五年内可能会飙升 100%（或更多）。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg5NjQvYW1hem9uLXByaW1lLWFpci1qZXQuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg5NjQvYW1hem9uLXByaW1lLWFpci1qZXQuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：亚马逊。</p>
<h2>亲身经历</h2>
<p>在五年内实现 100% 的回报对亚马逊来说并不是新鲜事。这只股票过去已经多次做到过。</p>
<p>最近，亚马逊的股价在 2020 年至 2024 年间飙升了大约 137%。值得注意的是，这一大幅上涨是在 2022 年美联储迅速加息的情况下发生的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d01a4a04e9535131a451af51ecd89681.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d01a4a04e9535131a451af51ecd89681.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>一些五年期的表现甚至更加令人印象深刻。在 2015 年至 2019 年间，亚马逊的股价几乎增长了 500%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/aaeb81b5f0772f1a8a696706dff0735f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/aaeb81b5f0772f1a8a696706dff0735f.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>当然，过去的表现并不一定能预测未来的表现。但我认为历史可能会重演，尽管不一定完全相同。</p>
<h2>亚马逊如何在 2030 年前翻倍或更多</h2>
<p>我对亚马逊在未来五年内飙升 100% 或更多的预测并不是凭空想象。我相信有五个具体原因可以解释这只股票为何能够实现如此高的回报。</p>
<p>首先，亚马逊的股价仍然比之前的高点低约 15%。过去每次这样的回调都为长期投资者提供了很好的买入机会。我怀疑这次也会如此。</p>
<p>其次（相关的），亚马逊的估值在近年来是相当有吸引力的。这只股票目前的市盈率（P/E）约为 33 倍。虽然这看起来有些昂贵，但这是自 2008 年市场崩溃以来亚马逊的最低盈利倍数。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6f522ce892ddefafb45d61081cdc56a1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6f522ce892ddefafb45d61081cdc56a1.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>第三，亚马逊网络服务（AWS）在未来几年应该有巨大的增长前景。我不认为生成性人工智能的顺风会很快减弱。作为全球最大的云服务提供商，AWS 有望在组织将 IT 支出转向云端以构建和部署生成性人工智能模型时，捕获市场的显著份额。</p>
<p>第四，尽管亚马逊在电子商务方面取得了惊人的成功，但它仍然有很大的增长空间。首席执行官安迪·贾西在 2024 年 10 月的季度电话会议上指出，亚马逊在全球零售市场的市场份额仅约为 1%。他认为，零售将在未来 10 到 20 年内逐渐从实体店转向在线。我同意贾西的看法，并认为电子商务将继续是亚马逊的重要增长驱动力。</p>
<p>第五，我预计亚马逊将通过扩展到新市场继续实现增量增长。该公司目前正在通过其库柏项目卫星发射和新医疗服务的推出来实现这一目标。</p>
<h2>什么可能会破坏这个预测？</h2>
<p>尽管我真心相信亚马逊的股票在未来五年内可能翻倍或更多，但我也坦诚我可能是错的。什么可能会破坏我的预测？我将提到两个特别突出的威胁。</p>
<p>全球经济长期下滑将使亚马逊在 2030 年前实现 100% 回报变得更加困难。特朗普政府与中国的贸易紧张关系缓解可能降低衰退的可能性。然而，仍然存在重大不确定性。</p>
<p>如果组织未能从其在生成性人工智能上的投资中获得良好的回报，AWS 的增长可能会受到影响，从而阻碍亚马逊股票实现我的预测。我认为生成性人工智能更有可能带来丰厚的回报，但我不会排除投资回报（ROI）低于预期的可能性。</p>
<p>我预测中最棘手的部分是时机。准确预测任何股票在五年内的表现是困难的。然而，在我看来，如果有任何股票具备在 2030 年前上涨 100% 的潜力，那就是亚马逊。</p>

亚马逊

<p>亚马逊的股票在未来五年内可能会飙升 100% 或更多，这主要受到几个因素的推动，包括其当前估值、亚马逊云服务（AWS）的增长前景以及电子商务的扩展。尽管过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果，但该股票之前曾实现显著的涨幅。然而，潜在风险包括全球经济衰退和生成式人工智能投资的表现不佳。总体而言，这一预测强调了亚马逊强大的市场地位和增长机会</p>

<p>Want to hear a staggering number? Here it is: 208,300%. That's roughly the gain that <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -1.33%) has delivered since its initial public offering (IPO) on May 15, 1997. If you had invested $10,000 in the stock back then and held on for the wild ride, you'd have a whopping $20.8 million today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>想听一个惊人的数字吗？这里是：208,300%。这大约是 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN -1.33%）自 1997 年 5 月 15 日首次公开募股（IPO）以来所带来的收益。如果你当时投资了 10,000 美元并持有这只股票，今天你将拥有惊人的 208 万美元。</p>
</div><p>Amazon won't be able to generate the kind of sizzling growth in the future as it did when the company was still a rising star. However, that doesn't mean this stock can't still make investors a lot of money. I predict Amazon could surge by 100% (or more) in the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊未来无法再像公司仍然是新星时那样实现炙手可热的增长。然而，这并不意味着这只股票不能为投资者带来丰厚的回报。我预测亚马逊在未来五年内可能会飙升 100%（或更多）。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg5NjQvYW1hem9uLXByaW1lLWFpci1qZXQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F818964%2Famazon-prime-air-jet.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：亚马逊。</p>
</div><h2>Been there, done that</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亲身经历</h2>
</div><p>Delivering a 100% return in five years isn't covering new ground for Amazon. The stock has done it several times in the past.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在五年内实现 100% 的回报对亚马逊来说并不是新鲜事。这只股票过去已经多次做到过。</p>
</div><p>Most recently, Amazon's share price soared roughly 137% between 2020 and 2024. Notably, this big gain came despite a steep sell-off in 2022 as the Federal Reserve rapidly raised interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，亚马逊的股价在 2020 年至 2024 年间飙升了大约 137%。值得注意的是，这一大幅上涨是在 2022 年美联储迅速加息的情况下发生的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d01a4a04e9535131a451af51ecd89681.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d01a4a04e9535131a451af51ecd89681.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Some five-year periods have been even more impressive. Between 2015 and 2019, Amazon's share price increased by nearly 500%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些五年期的表现甚至更加令人印象深刻。在 2015 年至 2019 年间，亚马逊的股价几乎增长了 500%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/aaeb81b5f0772f1a8a696706dff0735f.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/aaeb81b5f0772f1a8a696706dff0735f.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Granted, past performance isn't necessarily indicative of future performance. But I think history might rhyme, if not repeat itself, for Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，过去的表现并不一定能预测未来的表现。但我认为历史可能会重演，尽管不一定完全相同。</p>
</div><h2>How Amazon could double or more by 2030</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亚马逊如何在 2030 年前翻倍或更多</h2>
</div><p>My prediction about Amazon surging 100% or more in the next five years wasn't just plucked out of the air. I believe there are five specific reasons why the stock could deliver such a lofty return.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我对亚马逊在未来五年内飙升 100% 或更多的预测并不是凭空想象。我相信有五个具体原因可以解释这只股票为何能够实现如此高的回报。</p>
</div><p>First, Amazon is still around 15% below its previous high. Every such pullback in the past has offered a great buying opportunity for long-term investors. I suspect this one will be, too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，亚马逊的股价仍然比之前的高点低约 15%。过去每次这样的回调都为长期投资者提供了很好的买入机会。我怀疑这次也会如此。</p>
</div><p>Second (and on a related note), Amazon's valuation is as attractive as it's been in years. The stock currently trades at a trailing-12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 33. That might seem pricey, but it's the lowest earnings multiple for Amazon since the market meltdown of 2008.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次（相关的），亚马逊的估值在近年来是相当有吸引力的。这只股票目前的市盈率（P/E）约为 33 倍。虽然这看起来有些昂贵，但这是自 2008 年市场崩溃以来亚马逊的最低盈利倍数。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6f522ce892ddefafb45d61081cdc56a1.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6f522ce892ddefafb45d61081cdc56a1.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN PE Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Third, Amazon Web Services (AWS) should have tremendous growth prospects over the next few years. I don't foresee the generative AI tailwind waning anytime soon. As the largest cloud service provider in the world, AWS is poised to capture a significant chunk of the market as organizations move their IT spending to the cloud to build and deploy generative AI models.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三，亚马逊网络服务（AWS）在未来几年应该有巨大的增长前景。我不认为生成性人工智能的顺风会很快减弱。作为全球最大的云服务提供商，AWS 有望在组织将 IT 支出转向云端以构建和部署生成性人工智能模型时，捕获市场的显著份额。</p>
</div><p>Fourth, despite Amazon's amazing success in e-commerce, it still has a lot of room to grow. CEO Andy Jassy noted in the company's October 2024 quarterly call that Amazon only has around a 1% market share of the global retail market. He believes that retail will steadily shift from physical stores to online over the next 10 to 20 years. I agree with Jassy and view e-commerce as a continued major growth driver for Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第四，尽管亚马逊在电子商务方面取得了惊人的成功，但它仍然有很大的增长空间。首席执行官安迪·贾西在 2024 年 10 月的季度电话会议上指出，亚马逊在全球零售市场的市场份额仅约为 1%。他认为，零售将在未来 10 到 20 年内逐渐从实体店转向在线。我同意贾西的看法，并认为电子商务将继续是亚马逊的重要增长驱动力。</p>
</div><p>Fifth, I expect Amazon to keep churning out incremental growth by expanding into new markets. The company is doing this today with its Project Kuiper satellite launches and introduction of new healthcare services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第五，我预计亚马逊将通过扩展到新市场继续实现增量增长。该公司目前正在通过其库柏项目卫星发射和新医疗服务的推出来实现这一目标。</p>
</div><h2>What could derail this prediction?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>什么可能会破坏这个预测？</h2>
</div><p>Although I genuinely believe Amazon stock could double or more over the next five years, I readily admit that I could be wrong. What could derail my prediction? I'll mention two threats that especially stand out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管我真心相信亚马逊的股票在未来五年内可能翻倍或更多，但我也坦诚我可能是错的。什么可能会破坏我的预测？我将提到两个特别突出的威胁。</p>
</div><p>A prolonged global economic decline would make it much more difficult for Amazon to generate a 100% return by 2030. The Trump administration's relaxation of trade tensions with China could reduce the likelihood of a recession. However, significant uncertainty remains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球经济长期下滑将使亚马逊在 2030 年前实现 100% 回报变得更加困难。特朗普政府与中国的贸易紧张关系缓解可能降低衰退的可能性。然而，仍然存在重大不确定性。</p>
</div><p>Should organizations fail to realize solid returns from their investment in generative AI, AWS' growth could suffer and prevent Amazon stock from fulfilling my prediction. I think it's more likely that generative AI will pay off handsomely, but I won't rule out the possibility that return on investments (ROIs) could be less than desired.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果组织未能从其在生成性人工智能上的投资中获得良好的回报，AWS 的增长可能会受到影响，从而阻碍亚马逊股票实现我的预测。我认为生成性人工智能更有可能带来丰厚的回报，但我不会排除投资回报（ROI）低于预期的可能性。</p>
</div><p>The trickiest part of my prediction is the timing. It's difficult to accurately predict how any stock will perform over five years. In my opinion, though, if any stock has what it takes to jump 100% by 2030, it's Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我预测中最棘手的部分是时机。准确预测任何股票在五年内的表现是困难的。然而，在我看来，如果有任何股票具备在 2030 年前上涨 100% 的潜力，那就是亚马逊。</p>
</div>

Prediction: Amazon Could Surge by 100% in the Next 5 Years

- 亚马逊自 1997 年 IPO 以来增长了 208,300%。  
- 预计未来五年内，亚马逊股价可能上涨 100% 以上。  
- 主要原因包括估值吸引、AWS 增长潜力及电商市场份额提升。  

预测：亚马逊可能在未来五年内上涨 100%