<p>沃伦·巴菲特的业绩记录是极少数投资者能够匹敌的。<strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A -0.32%)(BRK.B -0.70%) 自 1965 年他接管以来，年均回报率达 20%，几乎是 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC -0.04%) 年均收益的两倍。</p>
<p>巴菲特通过明智的资本配置决策为股东创造了价值。有时这意味着收购整个企业，有时则意味着购买股票。无论如何，他的投资天赋使得伯克希尔成为了一家万亿美元的公司。</p>
<p>然而，巴菲特刚刚向华尔街发出了警告。尽管标准普尔 500 指数在 3 月份跌入调整区间，伯克希尔在第一季度的资产负债表上仍持有创纪录的 3480 亿美元现金及现金等价物。这表明，尽管市场下跌，巴菲特仍难以找到合理价格的股票，这暗示着可能会出现更大幅度的下跌。</p>
<p>投资者应该知道以下几点。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTkyMDgvbWFya2V0LTUuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTkyMDgvbWFya2V0LTUuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>从历史上看，标准普尔 500 指数在达到当前估值后总是会崩溃</h2>
<p>周期性调整后的市盈率（CAPE）用于判断股市指数是否被高估。它衡量的是当前价格与过去十年平均通胀调整后收益的比率。CAPE 比率有时被称为希勒市盈率，因为它是由诺贝尔经济学奖得主罗伯特·希勒开发的。</p>
<p>目前，标准普尔 500 指数的 CAPE 比率为 34.8，这是自 1957 年该指数创建以来仅出现 7.6% 的昂贵估值。CAPE 比率超过 34 的月份主要集中在两个事件周围：互联网泡沫（1998 年至 2001 年）和 COVID-19 大流行（2021 年至 2022 年）。而结果总是市场崩溃。</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>互联网泡沫：</strong> 每月 CAPE 比率首次在 1998 年 2 月超过 34，并在 2001 年 5 月之前大致保持在该水平。随着投资者对互联网公司的失望，标准普尔 500 指数最终从高点下跌了 49%。</li>
<li><strong>COVID-19 大流行：</strong> CAPE 比率首次在 2021 年 1 月超过 34，并在 2022 年 3 月之前保持在该水平。随着飙升的通胀迫使美联储以数十年来最快的速度加息，标准普尔 500 指数最终从高点下跌了 25%。</li>
</ul>
<p>简而言之，标准普尔 500 指数在每月 CAPE 比率超过 34 后总是（最终）崩溃。但还有更多坏消息。该指数在接下来的几年中通常会产生负回报。图表显示了标准普尔 500 指数在每月 CAPE 读数超过 34 后的 1 年、2 年和 3 年的平均回报。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>时间段</th>
<th>标准普尔 500 指数的回报（CAPE 比率 34+）</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>一年</td>
<td>(1%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>两年</td>
<td>(5%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>三年</td>
<td>(4%)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>数据来源：罗伯特·希勒。表格由作者提供。</p>
<p>如图所示，当标准普尔 500 指数的每月 CAPE 比率超过 34 时，该指数在接下来的 1 年、2 年和 3 年的平均回报都是负值。换句话说，历史表明，该指数在三年后可能会更低。</p>
<p>情况因特朗普总统对美国贸易政策的重大改变而进一步复杂化。许多经济学家预计关税将推高价格并减缓经济增长，可能导致衰退。任何验证这些担忧的经济数据都可能成为导致股市崩溃的导火索。</p>
<h2>尽管经历了几次市场崩溃，标准普尔 500 指数在过去三十年中年均回报率为 10.4%</h2>
<p>对于耐心的投资者来说，有一些好消息。首先，过去的表现并不保证未来的结果。标准普尔 500 指数并不一定会崩溃，仅仅因为它在过去每次 CAPE 比率超过 34 时都崩溃。当前的情况可能是规则的例外。</p>
<p>其次，标准普尔 500 指数的 CAPE 比率在最近几十年中一直在上升，可能是因为其利润率也在攀升。互联网和云计算等技术使公司更具盈利能力，而人工智能（AI）有望进一步提高效率。如果利润率持续上升，投资者可能会容忍更高的估值。</p>
<p>最后，尽管在过去三十年中经历了几次股市崩溃，包括上述两次，标准普尔 500 指数仍然回报了 1890%，相当于年均 10.4%。</p>
<p>因此，即使股市在不久的将来崩溃，历史表明，耐心持有优质股票的投资者将获得丰厚的回报。</p>

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

<p>沃伦·巴菲特向华尔街发出了警告，强调伯克希尔哈撒韦创纪录的 3480 亿美元现金，表明寻找合理价格股票的困难。标准普尔 500 指数当前的 CAPE 比率为 34.8，暗示潜在的市场崩溃，因为历史上该指数在达到这一估值后通常会下跌。尽管过去经历了崩溃，标准普尔 500 指数在过去三十年中年均回报率为 10.4%，这表明即使出现下行，耐心的投资者仍可能获得回报</p>

<p>Warren Buffett has a track record that very few investors can match. <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A -0.32%)(BRK.B -0.70%) stock has returned 20% annually since he took control in 1965, nearly doubling the annual gain in the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC -0.04%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃伦·巴菲特的业绩记录是极少数投资者能够匹敌的。<strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A -0.32%)(BRK.B -0.70%) 自 1965 年他接管以来，年均回报率达 20%，几乎是 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC -0.04%) 年均收益的两倍。</p>
</div><p>Buffett created that value for shareholders by making smart capital allocation decisions. Sometimes that meant buying entire businesses, and other times it meant buying stocks. Regardless, his knack for investing is why Berkshire has become a trillion-dollar company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特通过明智的资本配置决策为股东创造了价值。有时这意味着收购整个企业，有时则意味着购买股票。无论如何，他的投资天赋使得伯克希尔成为了一家万亿美元的公司。</p>
</div><p>However, Buffett just sent Wall Street a warning. Berkshire held a record $348 billion in cash and equivalents on its balance sheet in the first quarter, even though the S&amp;P 500 dropped into correction territory in March. That suggests Buffett struggled to find reasonably priced stocks despite the drawdown, which implies a sharper decline may be coming.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，巴菲特刚刚向华尔街发出了警告。尽管标准普尔 500 指数在 3 月份跌入调整区间，伯克希尔在第一季度的资产负债表上仍持有创纪录的 3480 亿美元现金及现金等价物。这表明，尽管市场下跌，巴菲特仍难以找到合理价格的股票，这暗示着可能会出现更大幅度的下跌。</p>
</div><p>Here's what investors should know.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者应该知道以下几点。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTkyMDgvbWFya2V0LTUuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F819208%2Fmarket-5.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Historically, the S&amp;P 500 has always crashed after reaching its current valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>从历史上看，标准普尔 500 指数在达到当前估值后总是会崩溃</h2>
</div><p>The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio is used to determine whether stock market indexes are overvalued. It measures price against the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the past decade. The CAPE ratio is sometimes referred to as the Shiller PE ratio because it was developed by Nobel-winning economist Robert Shiller.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周期性调整后的市盈率（CAPE）用于判断股市指数是否被高估。它衡量的是当前价格与过去十年平均通胀调整后收益的比率。CAPE 比率有时被称为希勒市盈率，因为它是由诺贝尔经济学奖得主罗伯特·希勒开发的。</p>
</div><p>The S&amp;P 500 currently has a CAPE ratio of 34.8, an expensive valuation seen just 7.6% of the time since the index was created in 1957. The months in which the CAPE ratio topped 34 were clustered around two events: the dot-com bubble (1998 to 2001) and the COVID-19 pandemic (2021 to 2022). And the outcome was always a market crash.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，标准普尔 500 指数的 CAPE 比率为 34.8，这是自 1957 年该指数创建以来仅出现 7.6% 的昂贵估值。CAPE 比率超过 34 的月份主要集中在两个事件周围：互联网泡沫（1998 年至 2001 年）和 COVID-19 大流行（2021 年至 2022 年）。而结果总是市场崩溃。</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Dot-com bubble:</strong> The monthly CAPE ratio first topped 34 in February 1998 and generally stayed above that level through May 2001. The S&amp;P 500 ultimately declined 49% from its high as investors became disillusioned with internet companies.</li>
<li><strong>COVID-19 pandemic:</strong> The CAPE ratio first topped 34 in January 2021 and stayed above that level through March 2022. The S&amp;P 500 ultimately declined 25% from its peak as surging inflation forced the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at the fastest pace in decades.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>互联网泡沫：</strong> 每月 CAPE 比率首次在 1998 年 2 月超过 34，并在 2001 年 5 月之前大致保持在该水平。随着投资者对互联网公司的失望，标准普尔 500 指数最终从高点下跌了 49%。</li>
<li><strong>COVID-19 大流行：</strong> CAPE 比率首次在 2021 年 1 月超过 34，并在 2022 年 3 月之前保持在该水平。随着飙升的通胀迫使美联储以数十年来最快的速度加息，标准普尔 500 指数最终从高点下跌了 25%。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>In short, the S&amp;P 500 has always (eventually) crashed after its monthly CAPE ratio topped 34. But there is more bad news. The index has usually generated negative returns over the next few years. The chart shows the S&amp;P 500's average return over the one, two, and three years following monthly CAPE readings above 34.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>简而言之，标准普尔 500 指数在每月 CAPE 比率超过 34 后总是（最终）崩溃。但还有更多坏消息。该指数在接下来的几年中通常会产生负回报。图表显示了标准普尔 500 指数在每月 CAPE 读数超过 34 后的 1 年、2 年和 3 年的平均回报。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Time Period</th>
<th>S&amp;P 500's Return (CAPE Ratio 34+)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>One year</td>
<td>(1%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Two years</td>
<td>(5%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Three years</td>
<td>(4%)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>时间段</th>
<th>标准普尔 500 指数的回报（CAPE 比率 34+）</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>一年</td>
<td>(1%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>两年</td>
<td>(5%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>三年</td>
<td>(4%)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data source: Robert Shiller. Table by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：罗伯特·希勒。表格由作者提供。</p>
</div><p>As shown, when the S&amp;P 500 had a monthly CAPE ratio above 34, the index's average return has been negative over the next one, two, and three years. Put differently, history says the index could be lower three years from today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如图所示，当标准普尔 500 指数的每月 CAPE 比率超过 34 时，该指数在接下来的 1 年、2 年和 3 年的平均回报都是负值。换句话说，历史表明，该指数在三年后可能会更低。</p>
</div><p>The situation is further complicated by the major changes to U.S. trade policy made by President Trump. Many economists expect tariffs to raise prices and slow economic growth, possibly to the point of recession. Any economic data that validates those worries could be the trigger that causes the stock market to crash.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>情况因特朗普总统对美国贸易政策的重大改变而进一步复杂化。许多经济学家预计关税将推高价格并减缓经济增长，可能导致衰退。任何验证这些担忧的经济数据都可能成为导致股市崩溃的导火索。</p>
</div><h2>Despite several market crashes, the S&amp;P 500 returned 10.4% annually over the last three decades</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>尽管经历了几次市场崩溃，标准普尔 500 指数在过去三十年中年均回报率为 10.4%</h2>
</div><p>There is some good news for patient investors. First, past performance is never a guarantee of future results. The S&amp;P 500 is not obligated to crash simply because it has crashed every time its CAPE ratio has exceeded 34 in the past. The present situation may be an exception to the rule.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于耐心的投资者来说，有一些好消息。首先，过去的表现并不保证未来的结果。标准普尔 500 指数并不一定会崩溃，仅仅因为它在过去每次 CAPE 比率超过 34 时都崩溃。当前的情况可能是规则的例外。</p>
</div><p>Second, the S&amp;P 500's CAPE ratio has been trending higher in recent decades, presumably because its profit margin has also been climbing. Technologies like the internet and cloud computing have made companies more profitable, and artificial intelligence (AI) promises to further improve efficiency. Investors may tolerate higher valuations if profit margins keep rising.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，标准普尔 500 指数的 CAPE 比率在最近几十年中一直在上升，可能是因为其利润率也在攀升。互联网和云计算等技术使公司更具盈利能力，而人工智能（AI）有望进一步提高效率。如果利润率持续上升，投资者可能会容忍更高的估值。</p>
</div><p>Finally, despite several stock market crashes in the last three decades, including the two discussed, the S&amp;P 500 still returned 1,890%, which is the same as 10.4% annually.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，尽管在过去三十年中经历了几次股市崩溃，包括上述两次，标准普尔 500 指数仍然回报了 1890%，相当于年均 10.4%。</p>
</div><p>So, even if the stock market does crash in the not-too-distant future, history says investors who patiently hold good stocks will be well rewarded.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，即使股市在不久的将来崩溃，历史表明，耐心持有优质股票的投资者将获得丰厚的回报。</p>
</div>

Warren Buffett's $348 Billion Warning to Wall Street, and Why the Stock Market May Crash

- 巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦自 1965 年起年均回报 20%。  
- 当前标普 500 的 CAPE 比率为 34.8，历史上曾导致市场崩盘。  
- 尽管面临风险，长期投资者仍可获得可观回报。  

沃伦·巴菲特向华尔街发出 3480 亿美元的警告，以及股市可能崩盘的原因