<p>没有太多投资者的业绩记录能比得上斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒。在为乔治·索罗斯的量化基金工作 12 年的 30 年期间，德鲁肯米勒根据对冲基金阿尔法的数据显示，平均年回报率达到了 30%。</p>
<p>如今，德鲁肯米勒仍通过家族基金杜克斯资本管理投资自己的资金。在今年第一季度，德鲁肯米勒将其在电动车制造商 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 2.08%) 的持仓削减了约 50%，同时将其在另一只自首次公开募股 (IPO) 以来上涨了 2800% 的人工智能 (AI) 股票的持仓增加了四倍以上。</p>
<h2>德鲁肯米勒通常关注估值</h2>
<p>美国证券交易委员会的文件显示，杜克斯将其在特斯拉的持股削减了约 50%，目前持有约 1880 万股。在唐纳德·特朗普总统于 11 月当选后，特斯拉的股价飙升，因为投资者认为该股票将受益于首席执行官埃隆·马斯克与总统的密切关系。</p>
<p>然而，在今年第一季度，特斯拉的大部分涨幅蒸发，因为特斯拉的核心电动车 (EV) 业务面临困境，投资者担心马斯克进军政治可能对品牌产生影响。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d7f5bcb3addbd1ea52140540cac17488.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d7f5bcb3addbd1ea52140540cac17488.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>德鲁肯米勒无疑是人工智能的信奉者，但在估值方面也保持着严谨，因为他的过去投资显示了这一点。这位传奇投资者在认为估值达到不可持续水平时毫不犹豫地出售了人工智能芯片巨头 <strong>英伟达</strong>。</p>
<p>由于马斯克的超凡品牌和公司未来的有希望的计划，特斯拉的估值一直处于高位。这些计划包括全自动驾驶 (FSD) 技术和据称能够完成日常家务的 Optimus 机器人。</p>
<p>现在所有的目光都集中在即将在 6 月于奥斯汀进行的 FSD 演示上，这可能会重新点燃投资者对该股票的热情。但由于核心电动车业务仍在挣扎，尤其是在中国，竞争对手如 <strong>比亚迪</strong> 已占据了显著的市场份额，特斯拉需要保持未来计划的进展，以维持其高估值。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg3OTIvYm9hcmRyb29tLTIuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg3OTIvYm9hcmRyb29tLTIuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>这只幕后人工智能股票还有更大的上涨空间</h2>
<p>在第一季度，杜克斯还将其在 <strong>台积电</strong>(TSM 2.44%) 的持仓增加了四倍以上，在该季度购买了额外的 4.91 亿股。英伟达被视为主要的人工智能投资之一，因为其芯片帮助推动了人工智能应用。</p>
<p>但台积电更进一步，目前是最先进的图形处理单元 (GPU) 制造商之一。该公司生产英伟达下一代的 Blackwell 芯片。</p>
<p>英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋曾称台积电为全球首屈一指的芯片制造商，差距 “不可思议”。他说，如果该公司发生什么事情，或者英伟达无法与他们合作，该公司仍然可以生产芯片，但将会更加困难。</p>
<p>“也许工艺技术没有那么出色。也许我们无法获得同样水平的超额收益或成本，但我们将能够提供供应，” 黄仁勋说。</p>
<p>在今年第一季度，台积电报告的收益超出华尔街共识预期，同时预计到 2025 年，受人工智能相关收入推动，收入增长将达到中 20% 的水平，该公司预计今年人工智能相关收入将翻倍。这似乎表明关税尚未对公司产生影响，管理层仍然看到强劲的人工智能需求。</p>
<p>台积电确实面临特朗普政府对英伟达和其他在中国开展业务的美国芯片公司的出口限制带来的挑战，但该股票的前瞻性市盈率为 18，作为人工智能领域来说并不算昂贵。</p>

特斯拉

台积电

<p>亿万富翁投资者斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒已将其在特斯拉的持股减少了 50%，目前持有 1880 万股，同时大幅增加了对台积电的投资，自上市以来台积电的股价已上涨 2800%。德鲁肯米勒的策略反映了他对估值的关注，因为特斯拉在其核心电动车业务面临挑战，并且在中国市场竞争激烈。与此同时，台积电由于人工智能需求和稳健的盈利能力，尽管可能面临影响美国芯片制造商的出口限制，仍然有望实现增长</p>

<p>There aren't too many investors with better track records than Stanley Druckenmiller. Over a 30-year period, which included 12 years working as a portfolio manager for George Soros at the Quant Fund, Druckenmiller generated average annual returns of 30%, according to Hedge Fund Alpha.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>没有太多投资者的业绩记录能比得上斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒。在为乔治·索罗斯的量化基金工作 12 年的 30 年期间，德鲁肯米勒根据对冲基金阿尔法的数据显示，平均年回报率达到了 30%。</p>
</div><p>Today, Druckenmiller is still investing his own money through his family's fund, Duquesne Capital Management. In the first quarter of the year, Druckenmiller slashed his position in the electric-car maker <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 2.08%) by about 50% and more than quadrupled his stake in another artificial intelligence (AI) stock up 2,800% since its initial public offering (IPO).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，德鲁肯米勒仍通过家族基金杜克斯资本管理投资自己的资金。在今年第一季度，德鲁肯米勒将其在电动车制造商 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 2.08%) 的持仓削减了约 50%，同时将其在另一只自首次公开募股 (IPO) 以来上涨了 2800% 的人工智能 (AI) 股票的持仓增加了四倍以上。</p>
</div><h2>Druckenmiller usually pays attention to valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>德鲁肯米勒通常关注估值</h2>
</div><p>Filings from the Securities and Exchange Commission show that Duquesne lowered its stake in Tesla by about 50% and now holds about 18.8 million shares. Following President Donald Trump's election victory in November, shares of Tesla rocketed higher as investors believed the stock would benefit from CEO Elon Musk's close relationship to the president.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国证券交易委员会的文件显示，杜克斯将其在特斯拉的持股削减了约 50%，目前持有约 1880 万股。在唐纳德·特朗普总统于 11 月当选后，特斯拉的股价飙升，因为投资者认为该股票将受益于首席执行官埃隆·马斯克与总统的密切关系。</p>
</div><p>However, in the first quarter of the year, most of those gains evaporated, as Tesla's core electric-vehicle (EV) business struggled and investors worried about how Musk's foray into politics might impact the brand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在今年第一季度，特斯拉的大部分涨幅蒸发，因为特斯拉的核心电动车 (EV) 业务面临困境，投资者担心马斯克进军政治可能对品牌产生影响。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d7f5bcb3addbd1ea52140540cac17488.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d7f5bcb3addbd1ea52140540cac17488.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSLA 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Druckenmiller is certainly a believer in AI but also remains disciplined on valuation, as his past investments have showed. The legendary investor didn't hesitate to sell the AI chip giant <strong>Nvidia</strong> when he thought that valuation rose to unsustainable levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德鲁肯米勒无疑是人工智能的信奉者，但在估值方面也保持着严谨，因为他的过去投资显示了这一点。这位传奇投资者在认为估值达到不可持续水平时毫不犹豫地出售了人工智能芯片巨头 <strong>英伟达</strong>。</p>
</div><p>Tesla always traded at a nosebleed valuation due to Musk's larger-than-life brand and the company's promising future initiatives. These include full-self-driving (FSD) technology and the Optimus robots that will supposedly be able to complete regular household chores.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于马斯克的超凡品牌和公司未来的有希望的计划，特斯拉的估值一直处于高位。这些计划包括全自动驾驶 (FSD) 技术和据称能够完成日常家务的 Optimus 机器人。</p>
</div><p>All eyes are now on an upcoming FSD demonstration in Austin some time in June that could renew investor excitement for the stock. But with the core EV business still struggling, particularly in China, where competitors like <strong>BYD</strong> have taken significant market share, Tesla needs to keep future initiatives on track to maintain its high valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在所有的目光都集中在即将在 6 月于奥斯汀进行的 FSD 演示上，这可能会重新点燃投资者对该股票的热情。但由于核心电动车业务仍在挣扎，尤其是在中国，竞争对手如 <strong>比亚迪</strong> 已占据了显著的市场份额，特斯拉需要保持未来计划的进展，以维持其高估值。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg3OTIvYm9hcmRyb29tLTIuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F818792%2Fboardroom-2.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>More room to run for this behind-the-scenes AI stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这只幕后人工智能股票还有更大的上涨空间</h2>
</div><p>In the first quarter, Duquesne also more than quadrupled its position in <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor</strong>(TSM 2.44%), purchasing an additional 491 million of shares in the quarter. Nvidia is viewed as one of the main pick-and-shovel AI plays, given that its chips help power AI applications.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第一季度，杜克斯还将其在 <strong>台积电</strong>(TSM 2.44%) 的持仓增加了四倍以上，在该季度购买了额外的 4.91 亿股。英伟达被视为主要的人工智能投资之一，因为其芯片帮助推动了人工智能应用。</p>
</div><p>But Taiwan Semiconductor goes a layer deeper and is currently one of the most advanced manufacturers of graphics processing units (GPUs). The company manufactures Nvidia's next-generation Blackwell chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但台积电更进一步，目前是最先进的图形处理单元 (GPU) 制造商之一。该公司生产英伟达下一代的 Blackwell 芯片。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang previously called Taiwan Semiconductor the premier chip manufacturer in the world by an &#34;incredible margin.&#34; He said if something were to happen to the company or Nvidia wasn't able to partner with them, the company could still produce chips but it would be much more difficult.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋曾称台积电为全球首屈一指的芯片制造商，差距 “不可思议”。他说，如果该公司发生什么事情，或者英伟达无法与他们合作，该公司仍然可以生产芯片，但将会更加困难。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Maybe the process technology is not as great. Maybe we won't be able to get the same level of outperformance or cost, but we will be able to provide the supply,&#34; Huang said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“也许工艺技术没有那么出色。也许我们无法获得同样水平的超额收益或成本，但我们将能够提供供应，” 黄仁勋说。</p>
</div><p>In the first quarter of the year, Taiwan Semiconductor reported solid earnings ahead of Wall Street consensus estimates, while guiding for revenue growth in the mid-20s percentile in 2025, driven by AI-associated revenue, which the company expects to double this year. This seemed to suggest that tariffs haven't impacted the company yet and that management is still seeing strong AI demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在今年第一季度，台积电报告的收益超出华尔街共识预期，同时预计到 2025 年，受人工智能相关收入推动，收入增长将达到中 20% 的水平，该公司预计今年人工智能相关收入将翻倍。这似乎表明关税尚未对公司产生影响，管理层仍然看到强劲的人工智能需求。</p>
</div><p>Taiwan Semiconductor certainly faces challenges from export restrictions set by the Trump administration on Nvidia and other U.S. chip players that do business in China, but the stock trades at a fairly reasonable forward earnings multiple of 18, which isn't expensive as far as the AI space goes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台积电确实面临特朗普政府对英伟达和其他在中国开展业务的美国芯片公司的出口限制带来的挑战，但该股票的前瞻性市盈率为 18，作为人工智能领域来说并不算昂贵。</p>
</div>

Billionaire Investor Stanley Druckenmiller Just Slashed His Fund's Stake in Tesla by 50% and Quadrupled Its Position in Another AI Stock Up 2,800% Since Its IPO

- 斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒在过去 30 年中年均回报率达 30%。  
- 他在第一季度将特斯拉持股削减约 50%，同时大幅增持台湾半导体。  
- 台湾半导体预计 2025 年收入增长中位数在 20% 中，受益于 AI 需求。  

亿万富翁投资者斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒刚刚将其基金在特斯拉的持股削减了一半，并将其在另一只自 IPO 以来上涨 2800% 的 AI 股票中的头寸增加了四倍