<p>在一个充满地缘政治紧张、利率波动和供应链中断的一年里，投资者们正在努力寻找能够在混乱中实现 <strong>持续增长</strong> 的公司。<strong>ADP（自动数据处理）</strong> 和 <strong>财捷</strong> 就是这样的公司，它们的软件驱动模型和长期利好因素证明比建筑材料等资本密集型行业更具韧性。尽管建筑股票面临监管压力和现金流波动，这两家科技领军企业正在利用可防御的护城河来推动可预测的回报。以下是它们为何应位于每位投资者名单之首的原因。</p>
<h3><strong>建筑材料陷阱：波动与监管</strong></h3>
<p>建筑材料行业，曾是基础设施支出的典范，如今面临着一场完美的风险风暴。</p>
<ol>
<li><strong>监管压力</strong>：</li>
</ol>
<p>钢铁和铝的关税、环境合规成本（例如，碳税）以及地缘政治贸易争端正在挤压利润。例如，从中国进口材料的美国公司面临的关税可能会使 <strong>项目成本增加 5-10%</strong>，而熟练工种的劳动力短缺则延误项目并增加开支。</p>
<ol>
<li><strong>价格波动</strong>：</li>
</ol>
<p>钢铁、铜和水泥的商品价格容易出现突然波动。智利的一次矿山关闭或中国经济放缓都可能扰乱供应链，造成不可预测的现金流。</p>
<ol>
<li><strong>周期性需求</strong>：</li>
</ol>
<p>住宅建设与利率息息相关，而利率仍接近历史高位。同时，基础设施项目往往依赖于政府资金——这远不如 SaaS 企业的经常性收入流可预测。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.ainvest.com/aigc/hxcmp/images/compress-1abb4ce19fd38001.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.ainvest.com/aigc/hxcmp/images/compress-1abb4ce19fd38001.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>ADP 和财捷：为稳定而生</strong></h3>
<p>这两家公司在 <strong>人力资本管理（HCM）</strong> 和财务软件领域蓬勃发展，这些领域具有 <strong>经常性收入模型</strong>、高转换成本和长期增长驱动因素。</p>
<h4><strong>ADP：可预测现金流的引擎</strong></h4>
<ul>
<li><strong>2025 年第二季度业绩</strong>：收入增长 <strong>8% 至 50.5 亿美元</strong>，由于规模和自动化，利润率扩大。调整后的每股收益增长 <strong>10%</strong>，自由现金流（尽管有股票回购）依然强劲。</li>
<li><strong>可防御的护城河</strong>：ADP 的 <strong>Lyric HCM 平台</strong> 整合了薪资、合规和劳动力分析，创造了粘性的客户关系。超过 100 万客户依赖其生态系统，使竞争对手难以取代。</li>
<li><strong>增长驱动因素</strong>：与 Fiserv 的合作以及对 Workforce Software 的收购正在扩大其可服务市场。</li>
</ul>
<h4><strong>财捷：主导小型企业云</strong></h4>
<ul>
<li><strong>第二季度激增</strong>：收入跃升 <strong>17% 至 40 亿美元</strong>，得益于 <strong>QuickBooks Online（增长 22%）</strong> 和 Credit Karma 的借贷平台。非 GAAP 利润率达到 <strong>32%</strong>，凸显盈利能力。</li>
<li><strong>护城河强度</strong>：财捷的 <strong>人工智能驱动工具</strong>（例如，自动报税、信用评分优化）创造了依赖性。其 25 亿美元的现金和 36 亿美元的回购余额显示出信心。</li>
<li><strong>未来保障</strong>：向远程工作和零工经济平台的转变正在推动对其薪资和财务管理解决方案的需求。</li>
</ul>
<h3><strong>为何现在是投资的时机</strong></h3>
<ol>
<li><strong>不确定经济中的防御性行业</strong>：</li>
</ol>
<p>这两家公司满足 <strong>非可选择性需求</strong>——薪资处理和税务合规，即使在经济衰退期间也保持稳定。</p>
<ol>
<li><strong>高资本回报</strong>：</li>
</ol>
<p>ADP 的股本回报率（ROE）为 <strong>28%</strong>，财捷的 <strong>24% ROE</strong> 反映了高效的资本配置，而建筑公司则与重型机械投资紧密相关。</p>
<ol>
<li><strong>股息纪律</strong>：</li>
</ol>
<p>ADP 的 <strong>52 年股息增长记录</strong> 和财捷的 <strong>16% 股息增长</strong> 表明财务健康。相比之下，建筑股票在经济低迷时往往会削减股息。</p>
<h3><strong>结论：稳定的收益，更稳定的股票</strong></h3>
<p>在 2025 年动荡的市场中，ADP 和财捷提供了 <strong>投资者渴望的两样东西</strong>：</p>
<p>- <strong>可预测性</strong>：它们的经常性收入模型和高客户留存率（例如，ADP 的客户留存率为 92%）减少了收益惊喜。</p>
<p>- <strong>可防御的护城河</strong>：转换成本和生态系统优势（例如，QuickBooks 与银行的整合）使竞争对手难以接近。</p>
<p><strong>立即行动</strong>：这些股票不仅是对软件的投资——<strong>它们是对未来工作和金融的投资</strong>。随着估值仍然合理（ADP 的市盈率为 31，而其 5 年平均为 35）和财捷的前瞻市盈率为 28，风险回报非常诱人。建筑材料在繁荣时期可能耀眼，但在 2025 年的现实中，<strong>稳定总是胜过波动</strong>。</p>
<p><strong>坚定投资。</strong></p>

自动数据处理

财捷

<p>在一个受到地缘政治紧张局势和利率波动影响的动荡市场中，ADP 和财捷成为稳定的投资选择。这两家公司利用软件驱动的模式，拥有经常性收入，与面临监管和现金流挑战的建筑材料行业形成鲜明对比。ADP 报告收入增长 8%，达到 50.5 亿美元，而财捷的收入激增 17%，达到 40 亿美元。它们强劲的现金流、高股本回报率和持续的股息增长使它们成为 2025 年具有吸引力的投资，强调了可预测性和稳固的市场地位</p>

<p>In a year marked by geopolitical tensions, fluctuating interest rates, and supply chain disruptions, investors are scrambling to find companies that can deliver <strong>consistent growth</strong> amid chaos. Look no further than <strong>ADP (Automatic Data Processing)</strong> and <strong>Intuit</strong>, whose software-driven models and secular tailwinds are proving far more resilient than capital-intensive industries like construction materials. While construction stocks face regulatory headwinds and cash flow volatility, these two tech leaders are leveraging defensible moats to power predictable returns. Here's why they should be at the top of every investor's list.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在一个充满地缘政治紧张、利率波动和供应链中断的一年里，投资者们正在努力寻找能够在混乱中实现 <strong>持续增长</strong> 的公司。<strong>ADP（自动数据处理）</strong> 和 <strong>财捷</strong> 就是这样的公司，它们的软件驱动模型和长期利好因素证明比建筑材料等资本密集型行业更具韧性。尽管建筑股票面临监管压力和现金流波动，这两家科技领军企业正在利用可防御的护城河来推动可预测的回报。以下是它们为何应位于每位投资者名单之首的原因。</p>
</div><h3><strong>The Construction Materials Trap: Volatility and Regulation</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>建筑材料陷阱：波动与监管</strong></h3>
</div><p>The construction materials sector, once a poster child for infrastructure spending, now faces a perfect storm of risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>建筑材料行业，曾是基础设施支出的典范，如今面临着一场完美的风险风暴。</p>
</div><ol>
<li><strong>Regulatory Overhang</strong>:</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li><strong>监管压力</strong>：</li>
</ol>
</div><p>Tariffs on steel and aluminum, environmental compliance costs (e.g., carbon taxes), and geopolitical trade disputes are squeezing margins. For instance, U.S. firms importing materials from China face tariffs that can add <strong>5–10% to project costs</strong>, while labor shortages in skilled trades delay projects and inflate expenses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>钢铁和铝的关税、环境合规成本（例如，碳税）以及地缘政治贸易争端正在挤压利润。例如，从中国进口材料的美国公司面临的关税可能会使 <strong>项目成本增加 5-10%</strong>，而熟练工种的劳动力短缺则延误项目并增加开支。</p>
</div><ol>
<li><strong>Price Volatility</strong>:</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li><strong>价格波动</strong>：</li>
</ol>
</div><p>Commodity prices for steel, copper, and cement are prone to sudden swings. A single mine closure in Chile or a Chinese economic slowdown could disrupt supply chains, creating unpredictable cash flow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>钢铁、铜和水泥的商品价格容易出现突然波动。智利的一次矿山关闭或中国经济放缓都可能扰乱供应链，造成不可预测的现金流。</p>
</div><ol>
<li><strong>Cyclical Demand</strong>:</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li><strong>周期性需求</strong>：</li>
</ol>
</div><p>Residential construction is tied to interest rates, which are still near historic highs. Meanwhile, infrastructure projects often depend on government funding—far less predictable than the recurring revenue streams of SaaS businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>住宅建设与利率息息相关，而利率仍接近历史高位。同时，基础设施项目往往依赖于政府资金——这远不如 SaaS 企业的经常性收入流可预测。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.ainvest.com/aigc/hxcmp/images/compress-1abb4ce19fd38001.png" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/aigc/hxcmp/images/compress-1abb4ce19fd38001.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>ADP and Intuit: Built for Stability</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>ADP 和财捷：为稳定而生</strong></h3>
</div><p>Both companies thrive in <strong>human capital management (HCM)</strong> and financial software, sectors with <strong>recurring revenue models</strong>, high switching costs, and secular growth drivers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这两家公司在 <strong>人力资本管理（HCM）</strong> 和财务软件领域蓬勃发展，这些领域具有 <strong>经常性收入模型</strong>、高转换成本和长期增长驱动因素。</p>
</div><h4><strong>ADP: The Engine of Predictable Cash Flow</strong></h4>
<div class="lb-trans"><h4><strong>ADP：可预测现金流的引擎</strong></h4>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Q2 2025 Results</strong>: Revenue rose <strong>8% to $5.05 billion</strong>, with margins expanding due to scale and automation. Adjusted EPS grew <strong>10%</strong>, and free cash flow (despite share buybacks) remains robust.</li>
<li><strong>Defensible Moat</strong>: ADP's <strong>Lyric HCM platform</strong> integrates payroll, compliance, and workforce analytics, creating sticky customer relationships. Over 1 million clients rely on its ecosystem, making it hard for competitors to displace.</li>
<li><strong>Growth Drivers</strong>: Partnerships with Fiserv and the Workforce Software acquisition are expanding its addressable market.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>2025 年第二季度业绩</strong>：收入增长 <strong>8% 至 50.5 亿美元</strong>，由于规模和自动化，利润率扩大。调整后的每股收益增长 <strong>10%</strong>，自由现金流（尽管有股票回购）依然强劲。</li>
<li><strong>可防御的护城河</strong>：ADP 的 <strong>Lyric HCM 平台</strong> 整合了薪资、合规和劳动力分析，创造了粘性的客户关系。超过 100 万客户依赖其生态系统，使竞争对手难以取代。</li>
<li><strong>增长驱动因素</strong>：与 Fiserv 的合作以及对 Workforce Software 的收购正在扩大其可服务市场。</li>
</ul>
</div><h4><strong>Intuit: Dominating the Small Business Cloud</strong></h4>
<div class="lb-trans"><h4><strong>财捷：主导小型企业云</strong></h4>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Q2 Surge</strong>: Revenue jumped <strong>17% to $4.0 billion</strong>, fueled by <strong>QuickBooks Online (22% growth)</strong> and Credit Karma's lending platform. Non-GAAP margins hit <strong>32%</strong>, underscoring profitability.</li>
<li><strong>Moat Strength</strong>: Intuit's <strong>AI-driven tools</strong> (e.g., automated tax filing, credit score optimization) create dependency. Its $2.5 billion in cash and $3.6 billion remaining in buybacks signal confidence.</li>
<li><strong>Future Proofing</strong>: The shift to remote work and gig economy platforms is boosting demand for its payroll and financial management solutions.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>第二季度激增</strong>：收入跃升 <strong>17% 至 40 亿美元</strong>，得益于 <strong>QuickBooks Online（增长 22%）</strong> 和 Credit Karma 的借贷平台。非 GAAP 利润率达到 <strong>32%</strong>，凸显盈利能力。</li>
<li><strong>护城河强度</strong>：财捷的 <strong>人工智能驱动工具</strong>（例如，自动报税、信用评分优化）创造了依赖性。其 25 亿美元的现金和 36 亿美元的回购余额显示出信心。</li>
<li><strong>未来保障</strong>：向远程工作和零工经济平台的转变正在推动对其薪资和财务管理解决方案的需求。</li>
</ul>
</div><h3><strong>Why Now Is the Time to Invest</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>为何现在是投资的时机</strong></h3>
</div><ol>
<li><strong>Defensive Sectors in an Uncertain Economy</strong>:</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li><strong>不确定经济中的防御性行业</strong>：</li>
</ol>
</div><p>Both companies serve <strong>non-discretionary needs</strong>—payroll processing and tax compliance—that remain steady even during recessions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这两家公司满足 <strong>非可选择性需求</strong>——薪资处理和税务合规，即使在经济衰退期间也保持稳定。</p>
</div><ol>
<li><strong>High Return on Capital</strong>:</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li><strong>高资本回报</strong>：</li>
</ol>
</div><p>ADP's return on equity (ROE) of <strong>28%</strong> and Intuit's <strong>24% ROE</strong> reflect efficient capital allocation, unlike construction firms tied to heavy machinery investments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ADP 的股本回报率（ROE）为 <strong>28%</strong>，财捷的 <strong>24% ROE</strong> 反映了高效的资本配置，而建筑公司则与重型机械投资紧密相关。</p>
</div><ol>
<li><strong>Dividend Discipline</strong>:</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li><strong>股息纪律</strong>：</li>
</ol>
</div><p>ADP's <strong>52-year dividend growth streak</strong> and Intuit's <strong>16% dividend hike</strong> signal financial health. Compare this to construction stocks, where dividends are often cut during downturns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ADP 的 <strong>52 年股息增长记录</strong> 和财捷的 <strong>16% 股息增长</strong> 表明财务健康。相比之下，建筑股票在经济低迷时往往会削减股息。</p>
</div><h3><strong>The Bottom Line: Steady Earnings, Steadier Stocks</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>结论：稳定的收益，更稳定的股票</strong></h3>
</div><p>In 2025's volatile market, ADP and Intuit offer <strong>two things investors crave</strong>:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年动荡的市场中，ADP 和财捷提供了 <strong>投资者渴望的两样东西</strong>：</p>
</div><p>- <strong>Predictability</strong>: Their recurring revenue models and high retention rates (e.g., ADP's 92% client retention) reduce earnings surprises.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>- <strong>可预测性</strong>：它们的经常性收入模型和高客户留存率（例如，ADP 的客户留存率为 92%）减少了收益惊喜。</p>
</div><p>- <strong>Defensible Moats</strong>: Switching costs and ecosystem advantages (e.g., QuickBooks' integration with banks) keep competitors at bay.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>- <strong>可防御的护城河</strong>：转换成本和生态系统优势（例如，QuickBooks 与银行的整合）使竞争对手难以接近。</p>
</div><p><strong>Act now</strong>: These stocks are not just bets on software— <strong>they're bets on the future of work and finance</strong>. With valuations still reasonable (ADP's P/E of 31 vs. its 5-year average of 35) and Intuit's forward P/E of 28, the risk-reward is compelling. Construction materials may dazzle in boom times, but in 2025's reality, <strong>steady beats volatile every time</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>立即行动</strong>：这些股票不仅是对软件的投资——<strong>它们是对未来工作和金融的投资</strong>。随着估值仍然合理（ADP 的市盈率为 31，而其 5 年平均为 35）和财捷的前瞻市盈率为 28，风险回报非常诱人。建筑材料在繁荣时期可能耀眼，但在 2025 年的现实中，<strong>稳定总是胜过波动</strong>。</p>
</div><p><strong>Invest with conviction.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>坚定投资。</strong></p>
</div>

为什么自动数据处理和财捷是 2025 年动荡市场中最稳健的投资选择