<ul>
<li><em>鲸鱼积累上升，MVRV 背离信号显示市场结构更加成熟。</em></li>
<li><em>空头平仓和趋势线支撑使 BTC 有望上涨至$114K.</em></li>
</ul>
<p>比特币 [BTC] 最近创下了超过$108K 的新历史高点，但其 MVRV 比率仍显著低于之前周期（2013 年、2017 年、2021 年）记录的峰值，通常超过 3.5。</p>
<p>这种背离主要是由于实现市值的上升，表明更多的币现在由成本基础较高的强势持有者持有。</p>
<p>因此，在过去 MVRV 峰值期间通常出现的获利了结行为并未出现。这一变化反映了市场的更深层次成熟，并表明新资本正在以更高的价格吸收供应。</p>
<h2><strong>鲸鱼在流出消失时悄然积累吗？</strong></h2>
<p>大持有者的行为发生了急剧变化。在过去一周，流入激增超过 11,800%，而流出下降超过 91%。</p>
<p>这种鲜明的对比揭示了一个净积累阶段，大玩家正在将资产转移到持有钱包中。这种行为反映了强烈的信心，并降低了近期卖压的可能性。</p>
<p>此外，缺乏相应的流出表明这些鲸鱼并不是在交易所之间轮换资本，而是为了长期持有而积累。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-24-091716.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-24-091716.png"/></p>
<p>来源：IntoTheBlock</p>
<h2><strong>链上基础在供应收紧中加强</strong></h2>
<p>交易所储备下降了 2.14%，降至$2623 亿。这一下降表明在集中平台上的币减少，这通常会导致卖方压力减小。</p>
<p>当储备与价格上涨同步下降时，通常表明持有者选择自我保管，而不是计划出售。</p>
<p>与此同时，BTC NVT 金叉下降超过 12%，降至 0.43，表明估值与网络活动良好对齐。</p>
<p>供应收缩与健康的使用情况的结合支持了可持续的反弹，且几乎没有投机过热的迹象。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Bitcoin-NVT-Golden-Cross-7.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Bitcoin-NVT-Golden-Cross-7.png"/></p>
<p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
<h2><strong>杠杆交易者在重置吗？</strong></h2>
<p>BTC Binance 平仓图显示在$108K 以上有大量空头平仓，表明随着价格上涨，空头正在被挤压。</p>
<p>在$111K 和$114K 之间有显著的平仓集群，任何进一步的上涨都可能引发连锁退出。</p>
<p>然而，未平仓合约下降了 5.26%，表明整体投机压力正在减弱。这一重置可能会清除过度杠杆的交易者，并减少突然反转的可能性。</p>
<p>如果 BTC 保持当前趋势，这一再平衡期可能为未来更稳定的上涨动能奠定基础。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-24-091613.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-24-091613.png"/></p>
<p>来源：Coinglass</p>
<h2><strong>BTC 能否在尊重趋势线的同时延续反弹？</strong></h2>
<p>BTC 在新闻发布时继续在 4 小时图上交易于一条清晰的上升趋势线之上，目前在$107.7K 附近反弹，接近 1.618 斐波那契水平。</p>
<p>这一支撑已被测试但未被突破，表明强烈的买入兴趣。</p>
<p>只要价格行动保持在趋势线之上，牛市结构仍然有效。如果多头突破$110.8K 并清除$114K 的阻力，进一步扩展至$115.9K 的可能性将增加。</p>
<p>然而，若跌破趋势线，则可能使该设置失效，并触发短期修正至$105K 或更低。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/BTCUSD_2025-05-24_09-21-24.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/BTCUSD_2025-05-24_09-21-24.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>BTC 当前的结构反映出健康的上升趋势，受到机构积累、供应收缩和投机压力减小的支持。</p>
<p>趋势线继续作为坚实的基础，而空头平仓和 NVT 下降进一步增强了上涨动能。只要支撑保持在$107.7K 以上，比特币似乎有望下一个目标为$111K–$114K。</p>

GBTC

<p>比特币最近的上涨得益于鲸鱼的积累和更成熟的市场结构，目标价为 114,000 美元。MVRV 背离表明强势持币者在持有比特币，而交易所储备减少，降低了卖方压力。空头平仓信号显示空头被挤压，稳定的趋势线支持进一步的价格上涨。只要比特币维持在 107,700 美元以上，就有可能向 111,000 美元至 114,000 美元增长，反映出机构的兴趣和减少的投机压力</p>

<ul>
<li><em>Whale accumulation rises as MVRV divergence signals a more mature market structure.</em></li>
<li><em>Short liquidations and trendline support position BTC for a move to $114K.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>鲸鱼积累上升，MVRV 背离信号显示市场结构更加成熟。</em></li>
<li><em>空头平仓和趋势线支撑使 BTC 有望上涨至$114K.</em></li>
</ul>
</div><p>Bitcoin [BTC] recently set a new all-time high above $108K, yet its MVRV ratio remains significantly below the peaks recorded in previous cycles (2013, 2017, 2021), which often exceeded 3.5.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币 [BTC] 最近创下了超过$108K 的新历史高点，但其 MVRV 比率仍显著低于之前周期（2013 年、2017 年、2021 年）记录的峰值，通常超过 3.5。</p>
</div><p>This divergence is largely due to the rising Realized Cap, suggesting that more coins are now held by strong hands with higher cost bases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种背离主要是由于实现市值的上升，表明更多的币现在由成本基础较高的强势持有者持有。</p>
</div><p>As a result, the typical profit-taking behavior seen during past MVRV spikes hasn’t materialized. This shift reflects deeper market maturity and indicates that new capital is absorbing supply at higher prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，在过去 MVRV 峰值期间通常出现的获利了结行为并未出现。这一变化反映了市场的更深层次成熟，并表明新资本正在以更高的价格吸收供应。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Are whales quietly accumulating as outflows vanish?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>鲸鱼在流出消失时悄然积累吗？</strong></h2>
</div><p>Large holder behavior has shifted sharply. Over the last week, inflows surged over 11,800%, while outflows dropped more than 91%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大持有者的行为发生了急剧变化。在过去一周，流入激增超过 11,800%，而流出下降超过 91%。</p>
</div><p>This stark contrast reveals a net accumulation phase, where big players are moving assets into holding wallets. Such behavior reflects strong conviction and reduces the likelihood of near-term sell pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种鲜明的对比揭示了一个净积累阶段，大玩家正在将资产转移到持有钱包中。这种行为反映了强烈的信心，并降低了近期卖压的可能性。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, the absence of corresponding outflows suggests these whales are not rotating capital between exchanges but are instead accumulating for longer-term exposure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，缺乏相应的流出表明这些鲸鱼并不是在交易所之间轮换资本，而是为了长期持有而积累。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-24-091716.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-24-091716.png"/></p>
<p>Source: IntoTheBlock</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：IntoTheBlock</p>
</div><h2><strong>On-chain foundation strengthening amid tighter supply</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>链上基础在供应收紧中加强</strong></h2>
</div><p>Exchange reserves have declined by 2.14%, dropping to $262.3 billion. This drop signals that fewer coins remain on centralized platforms, which often leads to reduced sell-side pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易所储备下降了 2.14%，降至$2623 亿。这一下降表明在集中平台上的币减少，这通常会导致卖方压力减小。</p>
</div><p>When reserves fall in tandem with rising prices, it typically suggests that holders are opting for self-custody instead of planning to sell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当储备与价格上涨同步下降时，通常表明持有者选择自我保管，而不是计划出售。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the BTC NVT Golden Cross has dropped more than 12% to 0.43, indicating that valuation is aligning well with network activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，BTC NVT 金叉下降超过 12%，降至 0.43，表明估值与网络活动良好对齐。</p>
</div><p>This combination of supply contraction and healthy utility supports a sustainable rally with fewer signs of speculative overheating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>供应收缩与健康的使用情况的结合支持了可持续的反弹，且几乎没有投机过热的迹象。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Bitcoin-NVT-Golden-Cross-7.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Bitcoin-NVT-Golden-Cross-7.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><h2><strong>Are leveraged traders resetting?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>杠杆交易者在重置吗？</strong></h2>
</div><p>The BTC Binance liquidation map shows a concentration of short liquidations above $108K, signaling that bears are being squeezed as price climbs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BTC Binance 平仓图显示在$108K 以上有大量空头平仓，表明随着价格上涨，空头正在被挤压。</p>
</div><p>With significant liquidation clusters between $111K and $114K, any further upside could trigger cascading exits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在$111K 和$114K 之间有显著的平仓集群，任何进一步的上涨都可能引发连锁退出。</p>
</div><p>However, Open Interest has dropped by 5.26%, suggesting that overall speculative pressure is cooling. This reset may flush out overleveraged traders and reduce the chance of sudden reversals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，未平仓合约下降了 5.26%，表明整体投机压力正在减弱。这一重置可能会清除过度杠杆的交易者，并减少突然反转的可能性。</p>
</div><p>If BTC maintains its current trend, this period of rebalancing may lay the groundwork for more stable bullish momentum ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 BTC 保持当前趋势，这一再平衡期可能为未来更稳定的上涨动能奠定基础。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-24-091613.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-24-091613.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Coinglass</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Coinglass</p>
</div><h2><strong>Can BTC extend its rally while respecting the trendline?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>BTC 能否在尊重趋势线的同时延续反弹？</strong></h2>
</div><p>BTC continued to trade above a clean ascending trendline on the 4-hour chart at press time, currently bouncing near the 1.618 Fibonacci level at $107.7K.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BTC 在新闻发布时继续在 4 小时图上交易于一条清晰的上升趋势线之上，目前在$107.7K 附近反弹，接近 1.618 斐波那契水平。</p>
</div><p>This support has been tested but not broken, indicating strong buying interest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一支撑已被测试但未被突破，表明强烈的买入兴趣。</p>
</div><p>So long as price action stays above the trendline, the bullish structure remains valid. If bulls push past $110.8K and clear resistance at $114K, further expansion toward $115.9K becomes likely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>只要价格行动保持在趋势线之上，牛市结构仍然有效。如果多头突破$110.8K 并清除$114K 的阻力，进一步扩展至$115.9K 的可能性将增加。</p>
</div><p>However, a break below the trendline could invalidate the setup and trigger a short-term correction to $105K or lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，若跌破趋势线，则可能使该设置失效，并触发短期修正至$105K 或更低。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/BTCUSD_2025-05-24_09-21-24.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/BTCUSD_2025-05-24_09-21-24.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>BTC’s current structure reflects a healthy uptrend supported by institutional accumulation, shrinking supply, and reduced speculative pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BTC 当前的结构反映出健康的上升趋势，受到机构积累、供应收缩和投机压力减小的支持。</p>
</div><p>The trendline continues to act as a firm base, while short liquidations and declining NVT reinforce upward momentum. As long as support holds above $107.7K, Bitcoin appears positioned to target $111K–$114K next.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>趋势线继续作为坚实的基础，而空头平仓和 NVT 下降进一步增强了上涨动能。只要支撑保持在$107.7K 以上，比特币似乎有望下一个目标为$111K–$114K。</p>
</div>

比特币的上升趋势目标可能达到 11.4 万美元——支持 BTC 上涨的两个关键因素