<p>传奇投资者迈克尔·伯里以进行大额投资而闻名。事实上，他因成为最早认识到 2008 年次贷危机的投资者之一而成名，他通过购买次级抵押贷款支持证券的信用违约掉期，重仓做空房地产市场。信用违约掉期本质上就像是对违约的保险，因此当基础的抵押贷款支持证券崩溃时，伯里获得了丰厚的利润。他后来在电影《大空头》中由克里斯蒂安·贝尔饰演。</p>
<p>因此，当伯里在第一季度出售了他整个投资组合时，除了一个股票：化妆品公司 <strong>雅诗兰黛</strong>（EL -0.96%），这引起了相当大的关注。事实上，他在这一季度加倍了对该股票的持仓。</p>
<p>不过，伯里并没有止步于此。他不仅出售了整个股票组合，还购买了 <strong>英伟达</strong> 和几只中国 ADR 的看跌期权，包括 <strong>阿里巴巴</strong>、<strong>PDD Holdings</strong> 和 <strong>京东</strong> 等。通过购买看跌期权，他是在押注这些股票的价格会下跌。</p>
<p>这可能是由于对贸易紧张局势和关税的不确定性，目前尚不清楚伯里是否已经平仓这些头寸。如果他迅速平仓看跌期权，他将在市场下跌中获得不错的利润。</p>
<p>不过，对于今天的投资者来说，更相关的问题是，为什么伯里对雅诗兰黛如此看好，而他却愿意出售投资组合中的其他所有股票，并基本上对美国和中国市场做空。</p>
<h2>美在观者眼中</h2>
<p>对于不熟悉雅诗兰黛的人来说，它是一家全球美容集团，拥有多个化妆品、护肤品、香水和护发产品品牌。它主要在高端市场运营，将其产品组合定位为一系列高档奢侈美容品牌。除了其自有品牌外，它还拥有 Clinique、MAC、Bobbi Brown、La Mer、Tom Ford Beauty 等品牌。</p>
<p>雅诗兰黛的许多困境源于其对中国和免税零售市场的依赖。由于疫情后中国消费者支出恢复缓慢，该公司的销售在中国大幅下滑。然而，这些问题在其全球旅行零售业务中表现得更加明显。</p>
<p>雅诗兰黛的增长战略很大一部分是通过在亚洲和欧洲的机场及其他免税商店销售其美容产品，这些地方是中国游客常去的。然而，COVID-19 对这一业务造成了重大影响，中国的旅行恢复缓慢。该公司试图转向中国的免税中心——海南岛，这是一个更本地化的中国旅游区域。然而，中国消费者仍然保持谨慎，导致该地区库存过剩。</p>
<p>这反过来导致了折扣，造成了利润压缩。对于奢侈品牌来说，折扣可能是一个大错误，因为这会在消费者眼中贬值品牌，并疏远其核心客户。这也可能使客户习惯于等待产品打折时再购买。</p>
<p>与此同时，在美国，雅诗兰黛面临来自新兴高端美容品牌的竞争加剧。像 Drunk Elephant 这样的品牌通过提供时尚、注重成分的产品，吸引了年轻成年人和青少年，建立了强大的追随者。而雅诗兰黛的品牌在年轻消费者眼中往往被视为 “妈妈的品牌”，而不是他们自己的品牌。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTkwNzAvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTc1Mzg4MTEyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTkwNzAvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTc1Mzg4MTEyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>有趣的是，在第一季度之前，伯里曾将其投资组合定位为受益于中国消费者需求潜在复苏。当时，他在主要的中国电子商务公司中持有多头头寸，包括阿里巴巴、PDD Holdings 和京东，随后却反转方向，通过购买看跌期权对这些股票做空。</p>
<p>尽管他的短期行为如此，伯里可能仍然相信中国消费者的长期复苏。这可能是他为何维持并增加在雅诗兰黛持仓的一个重要原因。如果当前中国的旅行和消费困境被证明是周期性的，该公司的销售和盈利可能会迅速反弹。</p>
<p>毕竟，雅诗兰黛仍然拥有一系列强大的奢侈品牌，具有强大的全球分销能力。它目前实施了所谓的利润恢复和增长计划，以转变其运营模式，资助销售增长的回归，并恢复稳健的两位数调整后营业利润率。作为该计划的一部分，它还在减少成本和裁员。</p>
<p>在销售下降 10% 和调整后营业收入在上个季度暴跌 27% 的情况下，该公司仍然面临艰巨的任务。最大的困境仍然是零售旅行，上一季度有机收入下降 28%，预计在当前季度将进一步下降。其零售旅行业务现在仅占其整体业务的低十几个百分点。然而，它已经能够显著减少其过高的库存，并相信自己在未来处于更好的位置。</p>
<h2>投资者应该购买雅诗兰黛股票吗？</h2>
<p>雅诗兰黛的股票在 2026 财年的前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 30 倍（截至 2026 年 6 月），表面上并不便宜。然而，过去几年盈利大幅下降，因此如果它能够恢复一些失去的盈利，股票可能会有很大的上涨空间。</p>
<p>公司仍然需要完成很多工作，但对于耐心的投资者来说，这可能是一只值得考虑的股票。伯里有着出色的业绩记录，所以我不会对他做空。</p>

雅诗兰黛

<p>传奇投资者迈克尔·布里（Michael Burry）因出售其全部投资组合而成为头条新闻，唯独保留了一只股票：雅诗兰黛（Estee Lauder），并将其持仓加倍。布里还购买了英伟达（Nvidia）和几只中国 ADR 的看跌期权，因贸易紧张局势对这些股票进行做空。雅诗兰黛面临挑战，尤其是在中国和旅行零售市场，但布里的看涨态度可能表明他对中国消费者需求长期复苏的信心。该公司正在实施利润恢复计划，以应对零售旅行领域销售和盈利下降的局面</p>

<p>Legendary investor Michael Burry is known for making big bets. In fact, he became famous for being one of the first investors to recognize the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, and he bet heavily against the housing market by buying credit default swaps on subprime mortgage-backed securities. Credit default swaps essentially act like insurance against default, so when the underlying mortgage-backed securities collapsed, Burry profited handsomely. He was later portrayed in the movie <em>The Big Short</em> by Christian Bale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>传奇投资者迈克尔·伯里以进行大额投资而闻名。事实上，他因成为最早认识到 2008 年次贷危机的投资者之一而成名，他通过购买次级抵押贷款支持证券的信用违约掉期，重仓做空房地产市场。信用违约掉期本质上就像是对违约的保险，因此当基础的抵押贷款支持证券崩溃时，伯里获得了丰厚的利润。他后来在电影《大空头》中由克里斯蒂安·贝尔饰演。</p>
</div><p>As such, it was quite notable when it was revealed that Burry sold off his entire investment portfolio in the first quarter, except for one stock: cosmetic company <strong>Estee Lauder</strong>(EL -0.96%). In fact, he doubled his position in the stock during the quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，当伯里在第一季度出售了他整个投资组合时，除了一个股票：化妆品公司 <strong>雅诗兰黛</strong>（EL -0.96%），这引起了相当大的关注。事实上，他在这一季度加倍了对该股票的持仓。</p>
</div><p>Burry didn't stop there, though. Not only did he sell his entire stock portfolio, but he also bought put options on <strong>Nvidia</strong> and several Chinese ADRs, including <strong>Alibaba</strong>, <strong>PDD Holdings</strong>, and <strong>JD.com</strong>, among others. By buying put options, he was betting that these stocks would decline in price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，伯里并没有止步于此。他不仅出售了整个股票组合，还购买了 <strong>英伟达</strong> 和几只中国 ADR 的看跌期权，包括 <strong>阿里巴巴</strong>、<strong>PDD Holdings</strong> 和 <strong>京东</strong> 等。通过购买看跌期权，他是在押注这些股票的价格会下跌。</p>
</div><p>This was likely due to the uncertainty over trade tensions and tariffs, and it's unknown if Burry has since closed out these positions. If he covered the put options quickly, he would have made a nice profit in the market downturn.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这可能是由于对贸易紧张局势和关税的不确定性，目前尚不清楚伯里是否已经平仓这些头寸。如果他迅速平仓看跌期权，他将在市场下跌中获得不错的利润。</p>
</div><p>Perhaps the more relevant thing for investors today, though, is why Burry is so bullish on Estee Lauder when he was willing to sell everything else in his portfolio and essentially bet against the U.S. and Chinese markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，对于今天的投资者来说，更相关的问题是，为什么伯里对雅诗兰黛如此看好，而他却愿意出售投资组合中的其他所有股票，并基本上对美国和中国市场做空。</p>
</div><h2>Beauty is in the eye of the beholder</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美在观者眼中</h2>
</div><p>For those unfamiliar with Estee Lauder, it is a global beauty conglomerate with brands across cosmetics, skincare, fragrance, and haircare. It primarily operates in the prestige segment, positioning its portfolio as a collection of high-end, luxury beauty brands. In addition to its namesake brand, it also owns Clinique, MAC, Bobbi Brown, La Mer, Tom Ford Beauty, and other brands.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于不熟悉雅诗兰黛的人来说，它是一家全球美容集团，拥有多个化妆品、护肤品、香水和护发产品品牌。它主要在高端市场运营，将其产品组合定位为一系列高档奢侈美容品牌。除了其自有品牌外，它还拥有 Clinique、MAC、Bobbi Brown、La Mer、Tom Ford Beauty 等品牌。</p>
</div><p>Much of Estee Lauder's struggles stem from its exposure to China and the duty-free shopping retail market. The company's sales have slumped in China as consumer spending in the country following Covid has been slow to recover. However, these issues have been even more pronounced in its global travel retail business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雅诗兰黛的许多困境源于其对中国和免税零售市场的依赖。由于疫情后中国消费者支出恢复缓慢，该公司的销售在中国大幅下滑。然而，这些问题在其全球旅行零售业务中表现得更加明显。</p>
</div><p>A big part of Estee Lauder's growth strategy was selling its beauty products at airports and other duty-free shops throughout Asia and Europe that are frequented by Chinese travelers. COVID-19 threw a big wrench into this business, and Chinese travel has been slow to recover since. The company tried to pivot to China's duty-free hub, Hainan Island, a more local area for Chinese tourism. However, Chinese consumers remained cautious, and it ended up having too much inventory in this area.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雅诗兰黛的增长战略很大一部分是通过在亚洲和欧洲的机场及其他免税商店销售其美容产品，这些地方是中国游客常去的。然而，COVID-19 对这一业务造成了重大影响，中国的旅行恢复缓慢。该公司试图转向中国的免税中心——海南岛，这是一个更本地化的中国旅游区域。然而，中国消费者仍然保持谨慎，导致该地区库存过剩。</p>
</div><p>This, in turn, led to discounting, which has caused margin compression. Discounting for luxury brands can also be a big mistake, as it can devalue the brand in the eyes of consumers and alienate its core customers. It can also condition customers to want to wait to buy its products when they go on sale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这反过来导致了折扣，造成了利润压缩。对于奢侈品牌来说，折扣可能是一个大错误，因为这会在消费者眼中贬值品牌，并疏远其核心客户。这也可能使客户习惯于等待产品打折时再购买。</p>
</div><p>In the U.S., meanwhile, Estee Lauder has run into increased competition from newer prestige beauty brands. Brands like Drunk Elephant have built strong followings by offering trendy, ingredient-focused products that appeal to young adults and teens. Estee Lauder's brands, meanwhile, are often viewed by younger consumers as their mom's brand and not their own.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，在美国，雅诗兰黛面临来自新兴高端美容品牌的竞争加剧。像 Drunk Elephant 这样的品牌通过提供时尚、注重成分的产品，吸引了年轻成年人和青少年，建立了强大的追随者。而雅诗兰黛的品牌在年轻消费者眼中往往被视为 “妈妈的品牌”，而不是他们自己的品牌。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTkwNzAvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTc1Mzg4MTEyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F819070%2Fgettyimages-175388112.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Interestingly, prior to Q1, Burry had positioned his portfolio to benefit from a potential recovery in Chinese consumer demand. At the time, he held long positions in major Chinese e-commerce companies, including Alibaba, PDD Holdings, and JD.com, before reversing course and betting against the stocks by buying puts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有趣的是，在第一季度之前，伯里曾将其投资组合定位为受益于中国消费者需求潜在复苏。当时，他在主要的中国电子商务公司中持有多头头寸，包括阿里巴巴、PDD Holdings 和京东，随后却反转方向，通过购买看跌期权对这些股票做空。</p>
</div><p>Despite his short-term actions, Burry likely still believes in the long-term recovery of the Chinese consumer. This could be one of the big reasons why he maintained and increased his position in Estee Lauder. If the current Chinese travel and consumption woes prove to be cyclical, the company's sales and earnings could bounce back sharply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管他的短期行为如此，伯里可能仍然相信中国消费者的长期复苏。这可能是他为何维持并增加在雅诗兰黛持仓的一个重要原因。如果当前中国的旅行和消费困境被证明是周期性的，该公司的销售和盈利可能会迅速反弹。</p>
</div><p>After all, Estee Lauder still owns a solid portfolio of luxury brands that have strong global distribution. It has currently enacted what it calls a profit recovery and growth plan to transform its operating model to fund a return to sales growth and restore a solid double-digit adjusted operating margin. As part of this plan, it is also reducing costs and laying off employees.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毕竟，雅诗兰黛仍然拥有一系列强大的奢侈品牌，具有强大的全球分销能力。它目前实施了所谓的利润恢复和增长计划，以转变其运营模式，资助销售增长的回归，并恢复稳健的两位数调整后营业利润率。作为该计划的一部分，它还在减少成本和裁员。</p>
</div><p>With sales down 10% and adjusted operating income plunging 27% last quarter, the company still has its work cut out for it. The biggest area of distress was still retail travel, with organic revenue falling 28% last quarter and expected to fall even further in the current quarter. Its retail travel business now makes up just a low-teens percentage of its overall business. However, it has been able to significantly reduce its elevated inventory and believes it is in a better position moving forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在销售下降 10% 和调整后营业收入在上个季度暴跌 27% 的情况下，该公司仍然面临艰巨的任务。最大的困境仍然是零售旅行，上一季度有机收入下降 28%，预计在当前季度将进一步下降。其零售旅行业务现在仅占其整体业务的低十几个百分点。然而，它已经能够显著减少其过高的库存，并相信自己在未来处于更好的位置。</p>
</div><h2>Should investors buy Estee Lauder stock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资者应该购买雅诗兰黛股票吗？</h2>
</div><p>Trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 30 times this fiscal 2026 (ending June 2026) analyst estimates, Estee Lauder stock is not cheap on the surface. However, there has been a lot of earnings erosion in the past few years, so if it can regain some of those lost earnings, the stock could have a lot of upside from here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雅诗兰黛的股票在 2026 财年的前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 30 倍（截至 2026 年 6 月），表面上并不便宜。然而，过去几年盈利大幅下降，因此如果它能够恢复一些失去的盈利，股票可能会有很大的上涨空间。</p>
</div><p>There is still a lot of work the company needs to get done, but it could be a stock worth considering for patient investors. Burry has a great track record, so I would not bet against him.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司仍然需要完成很多工作，但对于耐心的投资者来说，这可能是一只值得考虑的股票。伯里有着出色的业绩记录，所以我不会对他做空。</p>
</div>

这位传奇投资者刚刚对这只股票进行了巨额押注——你是否应该跟随他的脚步？