<p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -2.88%) 的股价在周五因特朗普总统的新关税威胁而大幅下跌。在 Truth Social 上的一则帖子中，特朗普威胁对所有在美国以外制造的 iPhone 征收至少 25% 的关税。苹果一直在将部分生产从中国转移到印度， reportedly 计划到 2026 年底之前在印度生产大部分面向美国的 iPhone。</p>
<p>虽然尚不清楚特朗普政府是否有权对个别公司征收关税，但苹果处于一个两难境地。在美国制造 iPhone 的成本可能会非常高，这将导致价格远远超出许多 iPhone 用户的承受能力。另一方面，继续使用印度制造商的计划则面临着巨额关税的风险，这也将迫使价格大幅上涨并削弱需求。</p>
<p>目前无法预测这一切将如何结束，但苹果股票因多种原因看起来尤其风险重重。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTk0MjgvZ2V0dHktaGlnaC1yaXNrLXJpc2t5LWRhbmdlci1pbnZlc3RpbmctbWlzdGFrZXMtcGVubnktc3RvY2tzLW1hcmdpbi5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTk0MjgvZ2V0dHktaGlnaC1yaXNrLXJpc2t5LWRhbmdlci1pbnZlc3RpbmctbWlzdGFrZXMtcGVubnktc3RvY2tzLW1hcmdpbi5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>次级关税风险与升级的理由寥寥</h2>
<p>尽管特朗普政府引发的贸易战在过去一个月有所降温，但针对苹果和欧盟的新关税威胁再次引发了可能重新升级的担忧，这可能会将美国经济推入衰退。由于关税导致的 iPhone 价格上涨，加上经济放缓，将对苹果造成双重打击。</p>
<p>苹果的 iPhone 业务已经在努力增长。截止到 3 月 29 日的六个月内，iPhone 的总收入基本持平于去年同期。价格实惠的$599 iPhone 16e 于 2 月推出，可能推动了 iPhone 的升级，但如果征收关税，该型号的价格将变得更加不易承受。</p>
<p>苹果面临的问题之一是 iPhone 用户没有太多升级的理由。苹果智能助手的人工智能（AI）功能迄今未能引起太大关注，而最令人兴奋的功能也被推迟。Siri 的改版可能要到 2026 年才能推出，因为公司在努力使其可靠运行。当它最终到来时，很难说是否足够吸引 iPhone 用户进行升级，特别是在关税推高价格的情况下。</p>
<h2>200 亿美元可能消失</h2>
<p>随着 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 在多起反垄断案件中败诉，苹果与这家搜索巨头的丰厚交易可能面临危机。苹果每年从谷歌那里获得约 200 亿美元，以使谷歌成为其设备的默认搜索引擎。</p>
<p>这 200 亿美元几乎完全是利润，并且大幅提升了苹果的服务部门和利润。预计服务部门在当前财政年度将为苹果创造超过 1000 亿美元的收入，因此失去与谷歌的交易将具有重要意义。尽管尚不清楚反垄断裁决对 Alphabet 的影响，但苹果的 200 亿美元交易可能最终会被削减。</p>
<h2>意外的高估值</h2>
<p>尽管苹果的增长缓慢——最新季度收入仅增长 5%——以及公司面临的种种风险，苹果股票的估值却出奇地高。根据对 2025 财政年度的平均分析师预期，苹果股票的市盈率约为 27 倍。这与 <strong>微软</strong> 和 <strong>英伟达</strong> 等公司相差无几，这些公司因 AI 需求而蓬勃发展。</p>
<p>苹果的最坏情况是失去与谷歌的交易，加上对其产品征收巨额关税，以及经济放缓导致需求下降。此外，还有外部威胁，即有人可能会推出取代 iPhone 的产品。OpenAI 最近以 65 亿美元收购了前苹果设计师 Jony Ive 的硬件初创公司，其他公司也在努力推出下一个重大产品。</p>
<p>鉴于苹果面临的所有风险以及股票的高估值，购买这家科技巨头的股票看起来是一项风险较大的投资。</p>

苹果

<p>苹果（AAPL）的股票因特朗普总统提出对在美国以外生产的 iPhone 征收 25% 的关税威胁而下跌。苹果正在将生产转移到印度，但面临高成本和潜在的关税。iPhone 业务正处于困境，收入持平且升级理由有限。此外，苹果与谷歌达成的 200 亿美元交易可能因反垄断问题而面临风险。尽管面临这些挑战，苹果股票仍然被高度估值，使其成为一种风险投资</p>

<p>Shares of <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -2.88%) slumped on Friday in response to a new tariff threat from President Donald Trump. In a post on Truth Social, Trump threatened a tariff of at least 25% on all iPhones manufactured outside of the United States. Apple has been shifting some production from China to India, reportedly planning to make most of its U.S.-bound iPhones in India by the end of 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -2.88%) 的股价在周五因特朗普总统的新关税威胁而大幅下跌。在 Truth Social 上的一则帖子中，特朗普威胁对所有在美国以外制造的 iPhone 征收至少 25% 的关税。苹果一直在将部分生产从中国转移到印度， reportedly 计划到 2026 年底之前在印度生产大部分面向美国的 iPhone。</p>
</div><p>While it's unclear whether the Trump administration has the authority to impose tariffs on individual companies, Apple is in a lose-lose situation. Manufacturing iPhones in the U.S. would likely be prohibitively expensive, leading to prices that are well out of reach for many iPhone users. Alternatively, sticking with the plan to use Indian manufacturers risks substantial tariffs that would also force significant price increases and dull demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然尚不清楚特朗普政府是否有权对个别公司征收关税，但苹果处于一个两难境地。在美国制造 iPhone 的成本可能会非常高，这将导致价格远远超出许多 iPhone 用户的承受能力。另一方面，继续使用印度制造商的计划则面临着巨额关税的风险，这也将迫使价格大幅上涨并削弱需求。</p>
</div><p>There's no telling how all this will end, but Apple stock is looking like an especially risky proposition for multiple reasons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前无法预测这一切将如何结束，但苹果股票因多种原因看起来尤其风险重重。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTk0MjgvZ2V0dHktaGlnaC1yaXNrLXJpc2t5LWRhbmdlci1pbnZlc3RpbmctbWlzdGFrZXMtcGVubnktc3RvY2tzLW1hcmdpbi5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F819428%2Fgetty-high-risk-risky-danger-investing-mistakes-penny-stocks-margin.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>A secondary tariff risk and little reason to upgrade</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>次级关税风险与升级的理由寥寥</h2>
</div><p>While the trade war instigated by the Trump administration has cooled over the past month, new tariff threats against Apple and the European Union raise the specter of a reescalation that could push the U.S. economy into recession. Higher iPhone prices due to tariffs, coupled with an economic slowdown, would be a double whammy for Apple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管特朗普政府引发的贸易战在过去一个月有所降温，但针对苹果和欧盟的新关税威胁再次引发了可能重新升级的担忧，这可能会将美国经济推入衰退。由于关税导致的 iPhone 价格上涨，加上经济放缓，将对苹果造成双重打击。</p>
</div><p>Apple's iPhone business is already struggling to grow. Total iPhone revenue for the six months ending on March 29 was essentially flat year over year. The affordable $599 iPhone 16e was launched in February and likely helped drive iPhone upgrades, but that model will become much less affordable if tariffs are imposed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果的 iPhone 业务已经在努力增长。截止到 3 月 29 日的六个月内，iPhone 的总收入基本持平于去年同期。价格实惠的$599 iPhone 16e 于 2 月推出，可能推动了 iPhone 的升级，但如果征收关税，该型号的价格将变得更加不易承受。</p>
</div><p>Part of the problem for Apple is that iPhone users don't have much reason to upgrade. Apple Intelligence, the company's stab at artificial intelligence (AI)-powered features, hasn't moved the needle so far, and the most exciting features have been delayed. A revamped version of Siri may not come until 2026 as the company struggles to make it work reliably. When it does arrive, it's hard to say whether it will be enticing enough to compel iPhone users to upgrade, particularly if tariffs have pushed prices up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果面临的问题之一是 iPhone 用户没有太多升级的理由。苹果智能助手的人工智能（AI）功能迄今未能引起太大关注，而最令人兴奋的功能也被推迟。Siri 的改版可能要到 2026 年才能推出，因为公司在努力使其可靠运行。当它最终到来时，很难说是否足够吸引 iPhone 用户进行升级，特别是在关税推高价格的情况下。</p>
</div><h2>$20 billion could disappear</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>200 亿美元可能消失</h2>
</div><p>With <strong>Alphabet</strong> losing against the U.S. Department of Justice in multiple antitrust cases, the writing may be on the wall for Apple's lucrative deal with the search giant. Apple receives around $20 billion annually from Google to make Google the default search engine on its devices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 在多起反垄断案件中败诉，苹果与这家搜索巨头的丰厚交易可能面临危机。苹果每年从谷歌那里获得约 200 亿美元，以使谷歌成为其设备的默认搜索引擎。</p>
</div><p>That $20 billion is likely almost entirely profit, and it inflates Apple's services segment and profit considerably. Services are on pace to generate more than $100 billion in revenue for Apple in the current fiscal year, so the loss of the Google deal would be meaningful. While it's still unclear what impact the antitrust rulings will have on Alphabet, Apple's $20 billion deal could end up on the chopping block.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这 200 亿美元几乎完全是利润，并且大幅提升了苹果的服务部门和利润。预计服务部门在当前财政年度将为苹果创造超过 1000 亿美元的收入，因此失去与谷歌的交易将具有重要意义。尽管尚不清楚反垄断裁决对 Alphabet 的影响，但苹果的 200 亿美元交易可能最终会被削减。</p>
</div><h2>A surprisingly lofty valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>意外的高估值</h2>
</div><p>Despite Apple's sluggish growth -- revenue rose by just 5% in the latest quarter -- and the myriad risks the company faces, Apple stock is surprisingly expensive. Based on the average analyst estimate for fiscal 2025, Apple stock trades for around 27 times earnings. That's not far off from companies like <strong>Microsoft</strong> and <strong>Nvidia</strong>, which are booming thanks to AI demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管苹果的增长缓慢——最新季度收入仅增长 5%——以及公司面临的种种风险，苹果股票的估值却出奇地高。根据对 2025 财政年度的平均分析师预期，苹果股票的市盈率约为 27 倍。这与 <strong>微软</strong> 和 <strong>英伟达</strong> 等公司相差无几，这些公司因 AI 需求而蓬勃发展。</p>
</div><p>The worst-case scenario for Apple is the loss of the Google deal combined with significant tariffs on its products and an economic slowdown pushing demand lower. There's also the outside threat that somebody comes up with something that displaces the iPhone. OpenAI recently acquired former Apple designer Jony Ive's hardware start-up for an eye-watering $6.5 billion, and there's no shortage of other companies trying to come up with the next big thing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果的最坏情况是失去与谷歌的交易，加上对其产品征收巨额关税，以及经济放缓导致需求下降。此外，还有外部威胁，即有人可能会推出取代 iPhone 的产品。OpenAI 最近以 65 亿美元收购了前苹果设计师 Jony Ive 的硬件初创公司，其他公司也在努力推出下一个重大产品。</p>
</div><p>Given all the risks facing Apple and the stock's lofty valuation, buying shares of the tech giant looks like a risky proposition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于苹果面临的所有风险以及股票的高估值，购买这家科技巨头的股票看起来是一项风险较大的投资。</p>
</div>

Buying Apple Stock Isn't Worth the Risk

- 苹果公司股价因特朗普威胁对进口 iPhone 征收 25% 关税而下跌。  
- 特朗普的关税威胁可能导致苹果在美国生产成本高昂，或在印度生产面临高额关税。  
- 苹果的 iPhone 业务增长乏力，且面临与谷歌的 20 亿美元协议风险。  

购买苹果股票不值得承担风险