<figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/4bd452b5dacb02d78e0f43547d65d3fe?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1054" height="663" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/4bd452b5dacb02d78e0f43547d65d3fe"/></figure><p><i>来源：TradingView</i></p><p>TradingKey - 备受期待的英伟达第一季度财报将于周三（5 月 28 日）收盘后公布。在过去的几个季度中，该公司在收入和利润方面均超出了预期，但投资者的反应却要么冷淡，要么甚至是负面的，这表明市场对这家 GPU 巨头寄予了巨大的期望。</p><h3 id="g2566gs7j"><strong>收入和每股收益</strong></h3><p>预计收入为 433.8 亿美元（同比增长 66%），每股收益为 74 美分（同比增长 21%）。由于中国的 H20 禁令，每股收益的增长将显著低于之前的时期。预计将有约 55 亿美元的一次性费用与库存和采购承诺相关。</p><p>事实上，这项禁令将在整个财年对收入造成 100 亿至 150 亿美元的阻力。我们预计管理层将披露更多相关细节，并提供最新的收入和盈利指导。</p><h3 id="e29foftuj"><strong>利润率</strong></h3><p>在过去四个季度中，我们看到毛利率出现了连续下降，从 2025 年第一季度的 78.35% 降至 2025 年第四季度的 73.03%，引发了对竞争护城河削弱的担忧。毛利率压力将在财年上半年持续，但我们预计在下半年中期，随着新款 Blackwell 产品的全面推出以及所有供应链延迟和制造问题的解决，毛利率将会回升至中 70% 的水平。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/b28ae34f823ed088ee81f4b870b3405d?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="704" height="415" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/b28ae34f823ed088ee81f4b870b3405d"/></figure><p><i>来源：Wells Fargo Securities</i></p><p>利润率的另一个重要方面是库存的状况。目前，库存以及采购义务和供应协议占成本的比例并不高，远低于 2022 年供应链危机期间的水平。这降低了产品降价的可能性，因此对利润率造成压力。</p><h3 id="hwcce36tq"><strong>人工智能基础设施支出</strong></h3><p>投资者对英伟达的最大担忧之一是超大规模云服务商的人工智能支出，以及由于经济下滑或投资回报不理想是否会出现放缓。</p><p>前四大云服务提供商今年的资本支出计划总额超过 3180 亿美元，同比增长约 19%。从亚马逊、微软、谷歌和 Meta 最近的财报电话会议中，我们看到对当前年度资本支出预期的轻微上调，这应该会为 NVDA 的多头提供暂时的缓解。人工智能仍然是增长战略的核心，支出与 Copilot、Llama 和 Gemini 等商业模型相关。</p><p>一个可能很快出现的趋势是政府层面的人工智能支出。许多国家，从美国到欧洲和中东，正在将重点转向发展强大的人工智能能力，这可能会成为英伟达收入的一个重要推动力，考虑到其主导市场地位。阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯正在投入数百亿美元用于国家人工智能基础设施。这与美国主导的 Stargate 项目以及欧洲最近努力在技术上赶上美国和中国的举措相吻合。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/cebcdfcef9f9e5a2524556889524525a?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="868" height="421" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/cebcdfcef9f9e5a2524556889524525a"/></figure><p><i>来源：Bloomberg Intelligence</i></p><p>最后，台积电的高性能计算（HPC）以及 SK 海力士和美光的高带宽内存（HBM）业务仍在快速增长。台积电 HPC 在 2025 年第一季度增长了 70%，我们预计 HBM 在报告时也会有稳健的增长。这些产品通常与数据中心和人工智能基础设施密切相关，使其与英伟达的表现高度相关，并且是公司数据中心业务增长的良好预测指标。</p><h3 id="0dgk2syt"><strong>估值</strong></h3><p>英伟达的估值可以从两个角度来看 - 一是从历史平均市盈率，二是与涵盖整个行业的费城半导体指数（SOX）进行比较。</p><p>目前，NVDA 的交易市盈率为 24 倍，低于历史平均水平。五年平均市盈率约为 32 倍。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/2859e28ac2e93edb5b4989a761103bb3?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="445" height="271" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/2859e28ac2e93edb5b4989a761103bb3"/></figure><p><i>来源：FactSet</i></p><p>此外，作为市场领导者，英伟达通常以较高的溢价交易于 SOX。然而，目前的溢价仅为 20%，远低于五年平均的 76%。考虑到英伟达生产出表现最佳的产品，并拥有以软件为主导的竞争护城河（CUDA），他们理应享有更高的溢价。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/9d729fe7584a2e3dab4ec6de7f9895bf?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="500" height="373" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/9d729fe7584a2e3dab4ec6de7f9895bf"/></figure><p><i>来源：Bloomberg Intelligence</i></p><p>了解更多</p>

英伟达

<p>英伟达计划于 5 月 28 日公布其第一季度财报，预计收入为 433.8 亿美元，每股收益为 74 美分。尽管之前的财报超出预期，但由于市场预期较高，投资者反应平淡。该公司面临来自中国 H20 禁令带来的 100 亿至 150 亿美元的收入压力以及毛利率下降的挑战。然而，主要云服务提供商的人工智能支出和政府的相关举措可能会提振收入。目前，英伟达的市盈率低于其历史平均水平，暗示其估值有上升的潜力</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20250526/007f877c8dc74f98bee18a2cd453f1f3%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%871%20(4).jpg" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20250526/007f877c8dc74f98bee18a2cd453f1f3%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%871%20(4).jpg"/></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20250526/007f877c8dc74f98bee18a2cd453f1f3%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%871%20(4).jpg" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20250526/007f877c8dc74f98bee18a2cd453f1f3%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%871%20(4).jpg"/></p>
</div><p><em>Source: TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：TradingView</em></p>
</div><p>TradingKey - The highly-expected Nvidia earnings for the first quarter of the new fiscal year will be announced on Wednesday (28th of May) after the bell. In the past several quarters, the company managed to beat the estimates on both the top and bottom lines, however the subsequent reaction of the investors were either lukewarm or even negative, implying the enormous amount of expectations the market is putting on the GPU giant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 备受期待的英伟达第一季度财报将于周三（5 月 28 日）收盘后公布。在过去的几个季度中，该公司在收入和利润方面均超出了预期，但投资者的反应却要么冷淡，要么甚至是负面的，这表明市场对这家 GPU 巨头寄予了巨大的期望。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Revenue and EPS</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>收入和每股收益</strong></h3>
</div><p>The revenue is expected to be $43.38 billion (+66% year-over-year), while earnings per share to be 74 cents (+21% year-over-year). The EPS growth will be significantly lower compared with previous periods due to the China H20 ban. It was announced that there will be a one-off charge of around $5.5 billion related to inventories and purchase commits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计收入为 433.8 亿美元（同比增长 66%），每股收益为 74 美分（同比增长 21%）。由于中国的 H20 禁令，每股收益的增长将显著低于之前的时期。预计将有约 55 亿美元的一次性费用与库存和采购承诺相关。</p>
</div><p>In fact, the ban will be a $10-15 billion headwind to the revenue throughout the whole fiscal year. We do expect the management to disclose more details on this topic and provide up-to-date guidance for revenue and earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，这项禁令将在整个财年对收入造成 100 亿至 150 亿美元的阻力。我们预计管理层将披露更多相关细节，并提供最新的收入和盈利指导。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Margins</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>利润率</strong></h3>
</div><p>In the last four quarters we saw a sequential decline in gross margins, from 78.35% in 2025Q1 to 73.03% in 2025Q4, raising concerns about eroding competitive moat. Gross margin pressure will continue through the first half of the fiscal year but we do expect a mean reversion in the later half to mid-70%s once the new Blackwell products are fully rolled out and all supply chain delays and manufacturing issues are sorted out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去四个季度中，我们看到毛利率出现了连续下降，从 2025 年第一季度的 78.35% 降至 2025 年第四季度的 73.03%，引发了对竞争护城河削弱的担忧。毛利率压力将在财年上半年持续，但我们预计在下半年中期，随着新款 Blackwell 产品的全面推出以及所有供应链延迟和制造问题的解决，毛利率将会回升至中 70% 的水平。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20250526/9fae8352ef134444aaf40d3fcdb191d3%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%872.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20250526/9fae8352ef134444aaf40d3fcdb191d3%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%872.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Source: Wells Fargo Securities</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：Wells Fargo Securities</em></p>
</div><p>Another important aspect for the margins is the state of the inventory. Currently, the inventory along with the purchase obligations and the supply agreements as a proportion of COGS are not at a very high level, far below what it was during the supply chain crisis in 2022. This decreases the chance of product markdown and therefore pressuring the margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利润率的另一个重要方面是库存的状况。目前，库存以及采购义务和供应协议占成本的比例并不高，远低于 2022 年供应链危机期间的水平。这降低了产品降价的可能性，因此对利润率造成压力。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Spending on AI Infrastructure</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>人工智能基础设施支出</strong></h3>
</div><p>One of the biggest concerns of investors with regards to Nvidia is about AI spending by hyperscalers, and whether we will see slowdown due to economic downturn or unsatisfactory ROI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者对英伟达的最大担忧之一是超大规模云服务商的人工智能支出，以及由于经济下滑或投资回报不理想是否会出现放缓。</p>
</div><p>The top four cloud service providers have combined capital-spending plans this year that exceed $318 billion, up about 19% year to date. From recent earnings calls from Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta, we saw slight upwards revisions in capex estimates for the current year, which should provide a temporary relief for NVDA bulls. AI remains central to growth strategies, with spending tied to commercial models like Copilot, Llama and Gemini.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前四大云服务提供商今年的资本支出计划总额超过 3180 亿美元，同比增长约 19%。从亚马逊、微软、谷歌和 Meta 最近的财报电话会议中，我们看到对当前年度资本支出预期的轻微上调，这应该会为 NVDA 的多头提供暂时的缓解。人工智能仍然是增长战略的核心，支出与 Copilot、Llama 和 Gemini 等商业模型相关。</p>
</div><p>A trend that may soon emerge is AI spending on a government level. Many countries, from America, to Europe and the Middle East, are shifting their priority towards developing strong AI capabilities, which might happen to be a big tailwind for Nvidia revenue, considering its dominant market position. UAE and Saudi Arabia are committing tens of billions of dollars toward national AI infrastructure. This coincides with the US-led Stargate project, as well as the recent efforts of Europe to catch up technologically with the US and China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个可能很快出现的趋势是政府层面的人工智能支出。许多国家，从美国到欧洲和中东，正在将重点转向发展强大的人工智能能力，这可能会成为英伟达收入的一个重要推动力，考虑到其主导市场地位。阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯正在投入数百亿美元用于国家人工智能基础设施。这与美国主导的 Stargate 项目以及欧洲最近努力在技术上赶上美国和中国的举措相吻合。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20250526/8d99dcc9e2a343c1b47499dd5f1e318b%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%873.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20250526/8d99dcc9e2a343c1b47499dd5f1e318b%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%873.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Source: Bloomberg Intelligence</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：Bloomberg Intelligence</em></p>
</div><p>Finally, TSMC High Performance Computing (HPC), as well as SK Hynix and Micron High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) businesses are still growing rapidly. TSMC HPC grew 70% in 2025Q1 and we expect solid growth for HBM once they report it. Usually these products are also closely tied with data centers and AI infrastructure, making them strongly correlated with Nvidia performance and a good predictor of the company’s Data Center segment growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，台积电的高性能计算（HPC）以及 SK 海力士和美光的高带宽内存（HBM）业务仍在快速增长。台积电 HPC 在 2025 年第一季度增长了 70%，我们预计 HBM 在报告时也会有稳健的增长。这些产品通常与数据中心和人工智能基础设施密切相关，使其与英伟达的表现高度相关，并且是公司数据中心业务增长的良好预测指标。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Valuation</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>估值</strong></h3>
</div><p>Nvidia's valuation can be seen from two perspectives - one is from historical average P/E and the other is compared to the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) covering the whole industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达的估值可以从两个角度来看 - 一是从历史平均市盈率，二是与涵盖整个行业的费城半导体指数（SOX）进行比较。</p>
</div><p>Currently, NVDA is traded at 24x the estimated forward earnings, which is on the lower side versus the historical average. The five-year average is around 32x.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，NVDA 的交易市盈率为 24 倍，低于历史平均水平。五年平均市盈率约为 32 倍。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20250526/a4b3871bf60d419c88a3d2e9edb835c2%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%874.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20250526/a4b3871bf60d419c88a3d2e9edb835c2%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%874.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Source: FactSet</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：FactSet</em></p>
</div><p>Also, as a market leader, Nvidia is usually traded at a large premium versus the SOX. However the current premium is just 20% which is much lower than the five year average of 76%. Considering that Nvidia produce the best performing product, and possesses a software-led economic moat (CUDA), they deserve a much larger premium against the rest of the semiconductor players.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，作为市场领导者，英伟达通常以较高的溢价交易于 SOX。然而，目前的溢价仅为 20%，远低于五年平均的 76%。考虑到英伟达生产出表现最佳的产品，并拥有以软件为主导的竞争护城河（CUDA），他们理应享有更高的溢价。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20250526/52b8b44099d0467c970f706a8d72169d%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%875.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20250526/52b8b44099d0467c970f706a8d72169d%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%875.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Source: Bloomberg Intelligence</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：Bloomberg Intelligence</em></p>
</div><p>Find out more</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>了解更多</p>
</div>

Nvidia: What to Expect from Q1 Earnings? Will Investors be Disappointed Again?

- 英伟达将于 5 月 28 日公布第一季度财报，预计收入为 433.8 亿美元。  
- 受中国禁令影响，预计每股收益增长将显著放缓。  
- AI 基础设施支出持续增长，可能为英伟达带来收入利好。  

英伟达：第一季度财报有哪些期待？投资者会再次感到失望吗？