<p>4 月 2 日，特朗普总统在白宫发表了一场有力的演讲，概述了一系列将适用于几乎所有国家的新关税。然而，从整体来看，总统真正希望重新平衡贸易关系的地区只有少数，其中最主要的国家是中国。</p>
<p>在过去一个半月中，半导体巨头 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA -1.02%）在与中国的关税谈判中成为了一个间接的讨论点。</p>
<p>让我们探讨一下中国为何对 Nvidia 如此重要。此外，我将概述一些超越该地区的增长机会，并阐述为什么我仍然对 Nvidia 的长期前景充满信心，即使其在中国的业务开始收缩。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 从中国获得多少收入？</h2>
<p>根据 Nvidia 最新的 10-K 文件，该公司的收入按地区划分如下：</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>地区</th>
<th>收入（$）</th>
<th>收入（%）</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>美国</td>
<td>$612 亿美元</td>
<td>47%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>新加坡</td>
<td>$237 亿美元</td>
<td>18%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>台湾</td>
<td>$206 亿美元</td>
<td>16%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>中国（包括香港）</td>
<td>$171 亿美元</td>
<td>13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>其他</td>
<td>$79 亿美元</td>
<td>6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>总计</strong></td>
<td><strong>$1305 亿美元</strong></td>
<td><strong>100%</strong></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>数据来源：投资者关系。</p>
<p>从上述数据来看，中国占 Nvidia 总收入的 13%。然而，公司文件中的一条脚注可能提供了这里真正面临的风险的线索。</p>
<p>根据 10-K 中的说明，&#34;客户使用新加坡集中开票，而我们的产品几乎总是运往其他地方。&#34; 基于这些细节，有多份报告表明，许多通过新加坡转运的 Nvidia 产品最终到达中国。</p>
<p>为了便于分析，我将新加坡和中国合并在一起——这意味着 Nvidia 的收入中大约有 31% 可能面临一些严重的阻力，具体取决于美国与中国的贸易谈判结果以及新政策如何影响出口管制。</p>
<h2>为什么世界其他地区可能成为 Nvidia 更大的机会</h2>
<p>我不否认 Nvidia 对中国及邻国的暴露是一个风险。我从上述财务概况中看到的积极因素是，世界其他地区可能会成为 Nvidia 的新增长机会，并可能超越该公司在中国的当前业务。让我们探讨一些涉及 Nvidia 和中国以外其他国家的最新发展。</p>
<p>上周，特朗普总统前往中东，在那里他帮助达成了一些可能成为 AI 基础设施参与者（如 Nvidia）的重大催化剂的新交易。</p>
<p>沙特阿拉伯（KSA）的公共投资基金运营着一家名为 Humain 的子公司，专注于人工智能（AI）投资。根据最近的公告，Humain 与 Nvidia 合作，在 KSA 建立 AI 工厂。Humain 将在未来五年内部署 “数十万” 个 Nvidia GPU，初始阶段包括 18000 个 Nvidia 最新的 Blackwell 架构。</p>
<p>此外，路透社最近报道，Nvidia 与位于阿联酋（UAE）的 G42 公司达成了一项协议。报告显示，Nvidia 将向阿联酋提供 10 万个芯片，以建立一个新的 AI 数据中心，预计明年即可投入使用。值得注意的是，Nvidia 将在这一基础设施项目中与 <strong>Oracle</strong>、<strong>Cisco</strong>、<strong>SoftBank</strong> 和 OpenAI 合作，该项目被称为 Stargate UAE。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTkyMzMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjE3MDE0OTIzNy5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTkyMzMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjE3MDE0OTIzNy5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>现在 Nvidia 股票值得购买吗？</h2>
<p>根据中国的情况，Nvidia 的增长在短期内可能会出现一些放缓的迹象。</p>
<p>然而，我对与中东的一些新交易感到鼓舞，因为这些是多年期项目。这表明沙特阿拉伯及该地区的其他国家致力于长期的 AI 基础设施，这对 Nvidia 未来的发展应该是有利的。</p>
<p>但目前，Nvidia 的前瞻性收益倍数的压缩可能表明投资者对公司的未来感到担忧。我认为这主要是因为人们关注中国的局势。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/152182600c512e2d87974c7b956a5f7c.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/152182600c512e2d87974c7b956a5f7c.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 市盈率（前瞻性）数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>我认为无论 Nvidia 在中国的前景如何，它都会很好。对我来说，与中东国家的交易凸显了 Nvidia 的芯片在更广泛的 AI 运动中的重要性。换句话说，Nvidia 在中国可能失去的任何业务似乎都被其他国家吸收了——我认为这种动态不会消失。</p>
<p>在其引人注目的估值特征和各种新关系不断展开的情况下，我对 Nvidia 的前景感到鼓舞，并认为对于有长期投资视野的投资者来说，现在购买该股票是个明智的选择。</p>

英伟达

<p>英伟达在中国的业务占其收入的 13%，由于美中关税谈判面临潜在风险。然而，该公司正在探索其他地区的增长机会，特别是在中东地区，已与当地建立了合作伙伴关系以建设人工智能基础设施。与沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋的近期交易可能抵消来自中国的任何损失，表明尽管当前存在不确定性，英伟达在人工智能市场的韧性和长期前景依然乐观</p>

<p>On April 2, President Trump gave a commanding speech at the White House during which he outlined a plethora of new tariffs that would be applied to just about every country around the world. In the grand scheme of things, though, there are only a few geographic regions where the President really wants to rebalance trade relations. Chief among these countries is China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>4 月 2 日，特朗普总统在白宫发表了一场有力的演讲，概述了一系列将适用于几乎所有国家的新关税。然而，从整体来看，总统真正希望重新平衡贸易关系的地区只有少数，其中最主要的国家是中国。</p>
</div><p>Over the last month and a half, semiconductor powerhouse <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -1.02%) has been a tangential talking point as it relates to tariff negotiations with China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去一个半月中，半导体巨头 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA -1.02%）在与中国的关税谈判中成为了一个间接的讨论点。</p>
</div><p>Let's explore why China is such an important market for Nvidia. Moreover, I'll outline a number of growth opportunities beyond the region and make a case for why I'm still confident in Nvidia's long-term prospects should its business in China begin to contract.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们探讨一下中国为何对 Nvidia 如此重要。此外，我将概述一些超越该地区的增长机会，并阐述为什么我仍然对 Nvidia 的长期前景充满信心，即使其在中国的业务开始收缩。</p>
</div><h2>How much revenue does Nvidia generate from China?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 从中国获得多少收入？</h2>
</div><p>Per Nvidia's latest 10-K filing, the company's revenue breakdown by geography is as follows:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Nvidia 最新的 10-K 文件，该公司的收入按地区划分如下：</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Region</th>
<th>Revenue ($)</th>
<th>Revenue (%)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>United States</td>
<td>$61.2 billion</td>
<td>47%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Singapore</td>
<td>$23.7 billion</td>
<td>18%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Taiwan</td>
<td>$20.6 billion</td>
<td>16%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>China (including Hong Kong)</td>
<td>$17.1 billion</td>
<td>13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Other</td>
<td>$7.9 billion</td>
<td>6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Total</strong></td>
<td><strong>$130.5 billion</strong></td>
<td><strong>100%</strong></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>地区</th>
<th>收入（$）</th>
<th>收入（%）</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>美国</td>
<td>$612 亿美元</td>
<td>47%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>新加坡</td>
<td>$237 亿美元</td>
<td>18%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>台湾</td>
<td>$206 亿美元</td>
<td>16%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>中国（包括香港）</td>
<td>$171 亿美元</td>
<td>13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>其他</td>
<td>$79 亿美元</td>
<td>6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>总计</strong></td>
<td><strong>$1305 亿美元</strong></td>
<td><strong>100%</strong></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data source: Investor Relations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：投资者关系。</p>
</div><p>From the figures above, it would appear that China makes up 13% of Nvidia's total revenue base. However, a footnote in the company's filings may offer a clue as to how much is really at stake here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从上述数据来看，中国占 Nvidia 总收入的 13%。然而，公司文件中的一条脚注可能提供了这里真正面临的风险的线索。</p>
</div><p>Per the notes in the 10-K, &#34;Customers use Singapore to centralize invoicing while our products are almost always shipped elsewhere.&#34; Piggybacking off these details, there have been a number of reports that suggest much of Nvidia's products that are routed through Singapore end up in China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 10-K 中的说明，&#34;客户使用新加坡集中开票，而我们的产品几乎总是运往其他地方。&#34; 基于这些细节，有多份报告表明，许多通过新加坡转运的 Nvidia 产品最终到达中国。</p>
</div><p>For the sake of this analysis, I'll lump Singapore and China together -- implying that up to roughly 31% of Nvidia's revenue could face some serious headwinds depending on the outcome of U.S. trade negotiations with China and how new policies could impact export controls.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了便于分析，我将新加坡和中国合并在一起——这意味着 Nvidia 的收入中大约有 31% 可能面临一些严重的阻力，具体取决于美国与中国的贸易谈判结果以及新政策如何影响出口管制。</p>
</div><h2>Why other regions of the world could become bigger opportunities for Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么世界其他地区可能成为 Nvidia 更大的机会</h2>
</div><p>I'm not going to deny that Nvidia's exposure to China and neighboring countries isn't a risk. The silver lining I see from the financial profile above is that other regions of the world could emerge as new growth opportunities for Nvidia and perhaps eclipse the company's current business in China. Let's explore some recent developments involving Nvidia and other countries outside of China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我不否认 Nvidia 对中国及邻国的暴露是一个风险。我从上述财务概况中看到的积极因素是，世界其他地区可能会成为 Nvidia 的新增长机会，并可能超越该公司在中国的当前业务。让我们探讨一些涉及 Nvidia 和中国以外其他国家的最新发展。</p>
</div><p>Last week, President Trump traveled to the Middle East, and while over there, he helped forge some new deals that could be major catalysts for AI infrastructure players such as Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周，特朗普总统前往中东，在那里他帮助达成了一些可能成为 AI 基础设施参与者（如 Nvidia）的重大催化剂的新交易。</p>
</div><p>The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's (KSA) public investment fund runs a subsidiary called Humain, which specifically focuses on making investments in artificial intelligence (AI). Per a recent announcement, Humain and Nvidia are partnering to build AI factories across the KSA. Humain will deploy &#34;several hundred thousand&#34; Nvidia GPUs over the next five years, with the initial phase comprising 18,000 of Nvidia's latest Blackwell architecture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沙特阿拉伯（KSA）的公共投资基金运营着一家名为 Humain 的子公司，专注于人工智能（AI）投资。根据最近的公告，Humain 与 Nvidia 合作，在 KSA 建立 AI 工厂。Humain 将在未来五年内部署 “数十万” 个 Nvidia GPU，初始阶段包括 18000 个 Nvidia 最新的 Blackwell 架构。</p>
</div><p>In addition, Reuters recently reported that a deal has been made between Nvidia and G42, a company located in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Reports suggest that Nvidia will supply the UAE with 100,000 chips to build a new AI data center scheduled to be up and running as soon as next year. Of note is that Nvidia will be working with <strong>Oracle</strong>, <strong>Cisco</strong>, <strong>SoftBank</strong>, and OpenAI as part of this infrastructure project, which is dubbed Stargate UAE.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，路透社最近报道，Nvidia 与位于阿联酋（UAE）的 G42 公司达成了一项协议。报告显示，Nvidia 将向阿联酋提供 10 万个芯片，以建立一个新的 AI 数据中心，预计明年即可投入使用。值得注意的是，Nvidia 将在这一基础设施项目中与 <strong>Oracle</strong>、<strong>Cisco</strong>、<strong>SoftBank</strong> 和 OpenAI 合作，该项目被称为 Stargate UAE。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTkyMzMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjE3MDE0OTIzNy5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F819233%2Fgettyimages-2170149237.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Is Nvidia stock a buy now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在 Nvidia 股票值得购买吗？</h2>
</div><p>Depending on what happens with China, it very well could be the case that Nvidia's growth shows some signs of deceleration in the near term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据中国的情况，Nvidia 的增长在短期内可能会出现一些放缓的迹象。</p>
</div><p>However, I'm encouraged by the fact that some of the new deals with the Middle East are multiyear projects. This suggests that countries such as Saudi Arabia and others in the region are committed to AI infrastructure for the long haul, which should bode well for Nvidia down the road.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，我对与中东的一些新交易感到鼓舞，因为这些是多年期项目。这表明沙特阿拉伯及该地区的其他国家致力于长期的 AI 基础设施，这对 Nvidia 未来的发展应该是有利的。</p>
</div><p>But right now, compression in Nvidia's forward earnings multiple could suggest that investors are concerned about the company's future. I think this is primarily because people are focusing on the China situation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但目前，Nvidia 的前瞻性收益倍数的压缩可能表明投资者对公司的未来感到担忧。我认为这主要是因为人们关注中国的局势。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/152182600c512e2d87974c7b956a5f7c.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/152182600c512e2d87974c7b956a5f7c.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 市盈率（前瞻性）数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>I think Nvidia is going to be just fine, regardless of what its prospects in China end up looking like. To me, the deals with Middle Eastern countries underscore how important Nvidia's chips are in the broader AI movement. Another way of saying this is that any business Nvidia might lose in China appears to be getting absorbed by other countries -- and I don't see these dynamics going away.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为无论 Nvidia 在中国的前景如何，它都会很好。对我来说，与中东国家的交易凸显了 Nvidia 的芯片在更广泛的 AI 运动中的重要性。换句话说，Nvidia 在中国可能失去的任何业务似乎都被其他国家吸收了——我认为这种动态不会消失。</p>
</div><p>Between its compelling valuation profile and various new relationships unfolding, I'm encouraged by Nvidia's prospects and see the stock as a no-brainer right now for investors with a long-run time horizon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在其引人注目的估值特征和各种新关系不断展开的情况下，我对 Nvidia 的前景感到鼓舞，并认为对于有长期投资视野的投资者来说，现在购买该股票是个明智的选择。</p>
</div>

Tariff Negotiations Could Derail Nvidia's China Business. Here's Why I'm Not Worried About It.

- 特朗普在白宫宣布新关税，重点针对中国。  
- Nvidia 在中国的收入占总收入的 13%，可能面临风险。  
- 该公司在中东的新合作项目为未来增长提供了机会。

关税谈判可能会影响英伟达在中国的业务。以下是我不担心的原因