<p>稀土只是最近美中贸易战中出现的众多问题之一。两国之间的紧张关系似乎有所缓解——至少在最近宣布的为期 90 天的暂停提高关税的情况下。</p>
<p>但 90 天的暂停并不意味着华盛顿与北京之间的冲突已经解决。</p>
<p>企业，自然会密切关注谈判，尤其是像 <strong>英特尔</strong>（INTC -2.34%）这样的科技公司，它们在稀土方面依赖很大。由于中国在稀土供应中占据重要地位，投资者也希望密切关注两国在这些珍贵矿物方面的进展。毕竟，如果贸易战再次升级，英特尔的增长计划可能会受到严重影响。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTkwNzYvdGVjaG5pY2lhbi13b3Jrcy13aXRoLWEtc2VtaWNvbmR1Y3Rvci5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTkwNzYvdGVjaG5pY2lhbi13b3Jrcy13aXRoLWEtc2VtaWNvbmR1Y3Rvci5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>深入了解稀土的风险</h2>
<p>虽然大多数人会将硅视为与半导体密切相关的元素，但稀土在其生产中也发挥着关键作用，因为它们具有独特的物理特性。事实上，它们如此重要，以至于英特尔在其最新的 10-Q 报告中将稀土列为风险因素。季度报告中识别的第一个风险因素指出：“最近的地缘政治紧张局势、国际贸易政策（包括关税和出口管制）的波动和不确定性，可能对我们的业务、我们竞争的市场以及全球经济产生重大不利影响。”</p>
<p>特别是，英特尔认识到其供应链依赖于多种原材料，包括 “稀土矿物，这可能变得难以获得或成本更高，这可能会影响我们制造产品的能力并增加我们的成本。”</p>
<p>在关于其供应链、国际贸易政策和稀土的所有讨论中，中国是英特尔唯一识别的风险国家。考虑到中国在全球稀土供应中的主导地位，讨论中提到中国并不令人惊讶。</p>
<h2>稀土不足可能会埋没英特尔的增长计划</h2>
<p>在经历了一个充满挑战的 2024 年后，包括收入同比下降 2% 的情况，英特尔宣布了一项重组计划，提出了一系列减少开支的举措，包括裁员和重新评估其业务。除了削减成本外，英特尔还认识到，发展其代工业务的进展是改善其财务状况的催化剂。</p>
<p>在获得约 80 亿美元的 CHIPS 法案资金支持后，英特尔预计将在 2025 年开始其 Intel 18A 工艺节点的高产量生产。这将支持 Panther Lake 的生产，这是一系列新客户产品，代表着英特尔 18A 上的首款处理器。</p>
<p>在英特尔 2024 年第四季度的电话会议上，英特尔首席财务官 David Zinsner 对前景表示乐观，他说公司 “对今年 Panther Lake 的推出以及下半年 Intel 18A 的内部提升感到兴奋，这将支持增加的产量和 2026 年的改善盈利能力。”</p>
<p>虽然尚不清楚来自中国的稀土供应受限是否会影响英特尔生产 18A 和 Panther Lake 的能力，但可以相当确定的是，稀土短缺可能会阻碍数据中心的增长。</p>
<h2>深入挖掘稀土供应减少的危险</h2>
<p>除了在冷却风扇中的应用外，稀土还形成了用于硬盘和数据中心其他组件的强大磁铁。像 <strong>微软</strong> 这样的人工智能（AI）公司——已经是英特尔 18A 的客户——正在向数据中心的开发投入数十亿美元，这是英特尔 18A 的几个应用之一。如果由于稀土供应不足，数据中心的开发减缓，可能会对英特尔产生不利影响。</p>
<p>当然，也要承认英特尔从自身的数据中心业务中获得了可观的收入。从 Xenon 处理器到 Gaudi 处理器再到软件产品，构成了英特尔的数据中心和 AI（DCAI）业务。在 2024 年，DCAI 的收入总计为 161 亿美元，占合并销售的 30.4%。这一业务同样可能受到稀土供应受限的负面影响。</p>
<h2>现在是投资者抛弃英特尔股票的时候吗？</h2>
<p>如果中国再次决定限制稀土出口，英特尔的业务显然会受到影响，但这并不足以让投资者放弃英特尔股票。值得注意的是，当前股票的交易价格为运营现金流的 14 倍，远高于五年平均现金流倍数的 7 倍。考虑到股票估值较高以及与中国贸易的不确定性，谨慎的投资者此时可能会选择在一旁观察英特尔。</p>

英特尔

<p>英特尔对稀土的依赖对半导体生产至关重要，但在美中贸易紧张局势下，这带来了风险。尽管最近暂停了 90 天的关税，但不确定性仍然存在。英特尔的供应链可能会受到中国潜在限制的影响，从而影响其增长计划和数据中心业务。该公司对即将推出的英特尔 18A 工艺节点和 Panther Lake 产品持乐观态度，并得到了 CHIPS 法案资金的支持。然而，稀土短缺可能会阻碍生产和收入，导致投资者在这些地缘政治挑战中谨慎关注英特尔的股票</p>

<p>Rare earths were just one of many issues that arose during the salvos of the recent trade war between the United States and China. The tensions between the two nations seem to have eased -- a little at least -- with the nations' recent announcement of a 90-day pause regarding the recently heightened tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>稀土只是最近美中贸易战中出现的众多问题之一。两国之间的紧张关系似乎有所缓解——至少在最近宣布的为期 90 天的暂停提高关税的情况下。</p>
</div><p>But a 90-day pause doesn't mean the strife between Washington and Beijing has been resolved.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但 90 天的暂停并不意味着华盛顿与北京之间的冲突已经解决。</p>
</div><p>Businesses, naturally, are watching the negotiations closely -- especially tech companies like <strong>Intel</strong>(INTC -2.34%), which relies heavily on rare earths. With China a powerful player in the supply of rare earths, investors will also want to keep a close eye on how the two nations proceed with respect to the coveted minerals. Intel's growth plans, after all, could be greatly impaired if the trade war starts to escalate again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>企业，自然会密切关注谈判，尤其是像 <strong>英特尔</strong>（INTC -2.34%）这样的科技公司，它们在稀土方面依赖很大。由于中国在稀土供应中占据重要地位，投资者也希望密切关注两国在这些珍贵矿物方面的进展。毕竟，如果贸易战再次升级，英特尔的增长计划可能会受到严重影响。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTkwNzYvdGVjaG5pY2lhbi13b3Jrcy13aXRoLWEtc2VtaWNvbmR1Y3Rvci5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F819076%2Ftechnician-works-with-a-semiconductor.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Reading into the risks regarding rare earths</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>深入了解稀土的风险</h2>
</div><p>While most will recognize silicon as an element that's synonymous with semiconductors, rare earths also play a critical role in their production thanks to their unique physical properties. They're so important, in fact, that Intel addressed rare earths among its risk factors in its most-recent 10-Q. The first risk factor identified in the quarterly report states, &#34;Recently elevated geopolitical tensions, volatility and uncertainty with respect to international trade policies, including tariffs and export controls, may have a material adverse impact on our business, the markets in which we compete and the world economy.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然大多数人会将硅视为与半导体密切相关的元素，但稀土在其生产中也发挥着关键作用，因为它们具有独特的物理特性。事实上，它们如此重要，以至于英特尔在其最新的 10-Q 报告中将稀土列为风险因素。季度报告中识别的第一个风险因素指出：“最近的地缘政治紧张局势、国际贸易政策（包括关税和出口管制）的波动和不确定性，可能对我们的业务、我们竞争的市场以及全球经济产生重大不利影响。”</p>
</div><p>In particular, Intel recognizes that its supply chain relies on a variety of raw materials including &#34;rare earth minerals, that may become difficult or more costly to obtain, which may impair our ability to manufacture our products and increase our costs.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特别是，英特尔认识到其供应链依赖于多种原材料，包括 “稀土矿物，这可能变得难以获得或成本更高，这可能会影响我们制造产品的能力并增加我们的成本。”</p>
</div><p>Amid all of the discussion regarding its supply chain, international trade policies, and rare earths, China is the only nation that Intel identifies as posing a risk. It is unsurprising that China figures so prominently in the discussion considering how it dominates the global supply of rare earths.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在关于其供应链、国际贸易政策和稀土的所有讨论中，中国是英特尔唯一识别的风险国家。考虑到中国在全球稀土供应中的主导地位，讨论中提到中国并不令人惊讶。</p>
</div><h2>Insufficient rare earths could bury Intel's growth plans</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>稀土不足可能会埋没英特尔的增长计划</h2>
</div><p>After battling through a challenging 2024, which included a 2% year-over-year decline in revenue, Intel announced a restructuring plan that featured a series of initiatives to reduce expenses, including downsizing staff and reevaluating its businesses. In addition to cutting costs, Intel recognizes progress in growing its foundry business as a catalyst for ameliorating its financial position.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在经历了一个充满挑战的 2024 年后，包括收入同比下降 2% 的情况，英特尔宣布了一项重组计划，提出了一系列减少开支的举措，包括裁员和重新评估其业务。除了削减成本外，英特尔还认识到，发展其代工业务的进展是改善其财务状况的催化剂。</p>
</div><p>With the support of about $8 billion in funding from the CHIPS Act, Intel expects to commence high-volume production of its Intel 18A process node in 2025. This, in turn, will support production of Panther Lake, a new client family of products that represent the first processors on Intel 18A.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在获得约 80 亿美元的 CHIPS 法案资金支持后，英特尔预计将在 2025 年开始其 Intel 18A 工艺节点的高产量生产。这将支持 Panther Lake 的生产，这是一系列新客户产品，代表着英特尔 18A 上的首款处理器。</p>
</div><p>Waxing optimistic about the prospects on Intel's fourth-quarter 2024 conference call, David Zinsner, Intel's chief financial officer, said that the company is &#34;excited by the launch of Panther Lake this year and the internal ramp of Intel 18A in the second half that will support increased volumes and improved profitability in 2026.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在英特尔 2024 年第四季度的电话会议上，英特尔首席财务官 David Zinsner 对前景表示乐观，他说公司 “对今年 Panther Lake 的推出以及下半年 Intel 18A 的内部提升感到兴奋，这将支持增加的产量和 2026 年的改善盈利能力。”</p>
</div><p>While it's unclear whether a constrained supply of rare earths from China would impair Intel's ability to produce 18A and Panther Lake, what's fairly certain is that a shortage of rare earths could impede the growth of data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然尚不清楚来自中国的稀土供应受限是否会影响英特尔生产 18A 和 Panther Lake 的能力，但可以相当确定的是，稀土短缺可能会阻碍数据中心的增长。</p>
</div><h2>Digging deeper into the danger of reduced rare earths supply</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>深入挖掘稀土供应减少的危险</h2>
</div><p>Besides their use in cooling fans, rare earths form powerful magnets that are found in hard drives and other components used in data centers. Artificial intelligence (AI) companies like <strong>Microsoft</strong> -- already an Intel 18A customer -- are pouring billions into the development of data centers, one of several applications for Intel 18A. Should the development of data centers wane due to an inadequate supply of rare earths, the deleterious effects could trickle down to Intel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了在冷却风扇中的应用外，稀土还形成了用于硬盘和数据中心其他组件的强大磁铁。像 <strong>微软</strong> 这样的人工智能（AI）公司——已经是英特尔 18A 的客户——正在向数据中心的开发投入数十亿美元，这是英特尔 18A 的几个应用之一。如果由于稀土供应不足，数据中心的开发减缓，可能会对英特尔产生不利影响。</p>
</div><p>Of course, it's also important to acknowledge that Intel generates substantial revenue from its own data center business. From Xenon processors to Gaudi processors to software products, there are a various products that comprise Intel's data center and AI (DCAI) business. In 2024, DCAI revenue totaled $16.1 billion, or 30.4% of consolidated sales. This business could, likewise, be adversely impacted by constrained supply of rare earths.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，也要承认英特尔从自身的数据中心业务中获得了可观的收入。从 Xenon 处理器到 Gaudi 处理器再到软件产品，构成了英特尔的数据中心和 AI（DCAI）业务。在 2024 年，DCAI 的收入总计为 161 亿美元，占合并销售的 30.4%。这一业务同样可能受到稀土供应受限的负面影响。</p>
</div><h2>Is now the time for investors to turn their backs on Intel stock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在是投资者抛弃英特尔股票的时候吗？</h2>
</div><p>Intel's business could clearly suffer if China decides to restrict exports of rare earths again, but this alone isn't reason enough for investors to dismiss Intel stock. The fact that shares are currently trading at 14 times operating cash flow, a steep premium to the five-year average cash flow multiple of 7, is also important to recognize. With shares richly valued and uncertainty regarding trade with China, investors wary of risk will want to watch Intel from the sidelines at this point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果中国再次决定限制稀土出口，英特尔的业务显然会受到影响，但这并不足以让投资者放弃英特尔股票。值得注意的是，当前股票的交易价格为运营现金流的 14 倍，远高于五年平均现金流倍数的 7 倍。考虑到股票估值较高以及与中国贸易的不确定性，谨慎的投资者此时可能会选择在一旁观察英特尔。</p>
</div>

Here's How Intel Could Be Affected by the United States' Rare Earths Trade With China

- 中美贸易战中稀土问题引发关注，近期两国宣布暂停加征关税。  
- 英特尔依赖稀土，若供应受限将影响其增长计划和数据中心发展。  
- 投资者需关注中美关系，谨慎评估英特尔股票风险。  

以下是美国与中国的稀土贸易可能对英特尔产生的影响