<p>在 2023 年和 2024 年，<strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA -1.02%）几乎等同于投资成功的通行证。在此期间，这家人工智能（AI）芯片巨头的股价飙升，涨幅超过 800%。这得益于公司在高增长市场中的主导地位，推动了季度盈利的持续增长。投资英伟达就是投资 AI——投资者急于参与这一被视为下一个重大科技的领域。</p><p>然而，英伟达在今年对投资者来说并不是如此确定的选择。与许多其他股票一样，尤其是成长型股票，因对特朗普总统进口关税对经济及最终企业盈利潜在影响的担忧而下跌。英伟达的股价已经从低点反弹，但今年仍然下跌约 1%。</p><p>不过，本周，英伟达正朝着一个可能为股票指明方向的时刻迈进。我所说的是公司 2026 财年第一季度的财报。英伟达的股价会在 5 月 28 日后飙升吗？历史给出了明确的答案。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/5f98b7960a3cdc504550bad224f5616e?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/5f98b7960a3cdc504550bad224f5616e"/></figure><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p><h2 id="935wrqyms">英伟达的顶级 GPU</h2><p>不过，首先快速回顾一下英伟达的盈利表现以及整体 AI 环境。各公司正在大量投资于其 AI 项目，作为其中的一部分，它们纷纷选择英伟达的顶级图形处理单元（GPU）及相关产品和服务。分析师预计，随着越来越多的公司加入 AI 的浪潮，AI 市场将在下个十年初突破 2 万亿美元。英伟达已经从 AI 热潮中获益匪浅，可能成为这一长期增长故事中最大的赢家之一。</p><p>到目前为止，该公司已经报告了多个季度的双位数和三位数的收入增长，收入和净利润均创下纪录。销售利润率也很高，毛利率超过 70%。所有这些都推动了英伟达股价的上涨。</p><p>正如我提到的，总统的关税计划阻碍了这一势头，投资者担心可能的价格上涨甚至美国经济衰退。在这种环境下，客户可能会削减 AI 支出，这将对英伟达造成伤害。但与英国和中国达成的近期贸易协议提升了人们的乐观情绪，认为进口关税水平不会像最初宣布的那样陡峭，从而避免了重大放缓。这帮助英伟达和其他成长型股票在最近几天反弹。</p><h2 id="2kv9uo7dk">超越预期的记录</h2><p>现在，让我们考虑一下英伟达即将发布的财报。这家芯片巨头在超越分析师预期方面有着良好的记录，并在上一个财报期间宣布了积极的消息，例如成功推出其 Blackwell 架构。Blackwell 在那段时间内带来了 110 亿美元的收入，这是其商业化的第一个季度。</p><p>对于即将发布的财报，我们有理由保持乐观，同时我们已经为一个特定的负面因素做好了准备，因为英伟达几周前已宣布：与美国对其芯片出口中国的限制相关的 55 亿美元费用。因此，这条消息不应影响财报发布后的股价表现。</p><p>考虑到这一切，英伟达会在财报发布后飙升吗？查看历史为我们提供了一些线索。我查看了英伟达在 2023 年 5 月至 2024 年 11 月期间七个季度财报发布后的六个月内的股价表现。（我没有包括今年 2 月的最新报告，因为六个月尚未过去。）</p><p>在前五个期间，英伟达的股价在财报发布后六个月内飙升了双位数，涨幅在 50% 到 90% 之间。只有在过去两个财报发布后，英伟达在六个月内出现了下跌——而且需要注意的是，这些下跌有两个重要因素。</p><h2 id="zsttpybbc">最近下跌的原因</h2><p>首先，这些下跌幅度较小，在 2024 年 8 月财报发布后的六个月内下跌不到 1%，在 2024 年 11 月财报发布后的六个月内则为个位数。其次，这些损失主要发生在今年年初，因对特朗普关税的担忧以及对 AI 支出未来的普遍质疑。（在包括 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 在内的大型英伟达客户重申其年度 AI 投资计划后，这一支出问题得以解决。）</p><p>现在让我们考虑一下这对英伟达在 5 月 28 日后的表现意味着什么。如果历史是正确的，英伟达在财报发布后有望大幅飙升，这在过去最为常见。尽管如此，我们在过去两个财报发布后看到的下跌与关税不确定性密切相关。尽管关税情况有所改善，但在问题完全解决之前，这可能会对英伟达的股价表现构成潜在阻力。</p><p>因此，所有这些表明，历史确实显示英伟达可能在财报发布后的几个月内迎来双位数的涨幅——但需要注意的是，意外的经济或政治问题可能会阻碍这一进程。</p><p>不过，好消息是，历史还告诉我们另一件事：英伟达过去总是能够从损失中恢复并继续上涨。公司的强大竞争地位和在高增长市场中的存在应该能帮助它再次做到这一点。如果遇到困难，这意味着无论英伟达在 5 月 28 日后是否飙升，它在长期内仍然很可能会获胜。</p>

英伟达

<p>英伟达的股票在 2023 年和 2024 年经历了显著增长，涨幅超过 800%，这得益于其在人工智能芯片市场的主导地位。然而，特朗普总统的进口关税引发的担忧导致今年股价略有下滑。随着英伟达接近其 2026 财年第一季度财报的发布（定于 5 月 28 日），历史数据表明股票上涨的可能性很大，因为它过去一直超出预期。尽管近期与关税相关的不确定性依然存在，但对英伟达在人工智能领域未来表现的乐观情绪依然高涨</p>

<p>In 2023 and 2024, <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -1.02%) pretty much equaled a ticket to an investment win. Over that time period, shares of the artificial intelligence (AI) chip giant skyrocketed, gaining more than 800%. This was thanks to the company's dominance in the high-growth market that supercharged earnings quarter after quarter. A bet on Nvidia was a bet on AI -- and investors were eager to get in on this technology that's often seen as the next big thing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2023 年和 2024 年，<strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA -1.02%）几乎等同于投资成功的通行证。在此期间，这家人工智能（AI）芯片巨头的股价飙升，涨幅超过 800%。这得益于公司在高增长市场中的主导地位，推动了季度盈利的持续增长。投资英伟达就是投资 AI——投资者急于参与这一被视为下一个重大科技的领域。</p>
</div><p>But Nvidia hasn't been such a sure thing for investors this year. Like many other stocks, particularly growth players, it's tumbled amid concern about the potential impact of President Trump's import tariffs on the economy -- and eventually corporate earnings. Nvidia shares have rebounded from lows, but they're still down about 1% for the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，英伟达在今年对投资者来说并不是如此确定的选择。与许多其他股票一样，尤其是成长型股票，因对特朗普总统进口关税对经济及最终企业盈利潜在影响的担忧而下跌。英伟达的股价已经从低点反弹，但今年仍然下跌约 1%。</p>
</div><p>This week, though, Nvidia is heading toward a moment that could offer the stock direction. I'm talking about the company's fiscal 2026 first-quarter earnings report. Will Nvidia stock soar after May 28? History offers us a decidedly clear answer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，本周，英伟达正朝着一个可能为股票指明方向的时刻迈进。我所说的是公司 2026 财年第一季度的财报。英伟达的股价会在 5 月 28 日后飙升吗？历史给出了明确的答案。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTkzNDAvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtd29tYW4tcG9pbnRzLWF0LWNvbXB1dGVyLXdpdGgtYS1wZW4tdG8tc2hvdy1zb21ldGhpbmctdG8tYS1jb2xsZWFndWUuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F819340%2Fgettyimages-woman-points-at-computer-with-a-pen-to-show-something-to-a-colleague.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia's top GPUs</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达的顶级 GPU</h2>
</div><p>First, though, a quick note about Nvidia's earnings performance so far and the general AI environment. Companies have been pouring investment into their AI programs, and as part of that, they've flocked to Nvidia for its top graphics processing units (GPUs) and related products and services. Analysts expect the AI market to roar past $2 trillion early in the next decade as more and more companies jump on board the AI train. Nvidia, which already is greatly benefiting from the AI boom, could be one of the biggest winners of this long-term growth story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，首先快速回顾一下英伟达的盈利表现以及整体 AI 环境。各公司正在大量投资于其 AI 项目，作为其中的一部分，它们纷纷选择英伟达的顶级图形处理单元（GPU）及相关产品和服务。分析师预计，随着越来越多的公司加入 AI 的浪潮，AI 市场将在下个十年初突破 2 万亿美元。英伟达已经从 AI 热潮中获益匪浅，可能成为这一长期增长故事中最大的赢家之一。</p>
</div><p>So far, the company has reported many quarters of double- and triple-digit revenue growth, with revenue and net income reaching records. And profit on sales is high, with gross margin surpassing 70%. All of this has helped drive Nvidia stock higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，该公司已经报告了多个季度的双位数和三位数的收入增长，收入和净利润均创下纪录。销售利润率也很高，毛利率超过 70%。所有这些都推动了英伟达股价的上涨。</p>
</div><p>As I mentioned, the president's tariff plan halted the momentum as investors worried about potentially higher prices and even a U.S. recession. In that sort of environment, customers could cut back on AI spending, and that would hurt Nvidia. But recent trade deals with the U.K. and China have boosted optimism that import tariff levels won't be as steep as initially announced, averting a major slowdown. That's helped Nvidia and other growth stocks to rebound in recent days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如我提到的，总统的关税计划阻碍了这一势头，投资者担心可能的价格上涨甚至美国经济衰退。在这种环境下，客户可能会削减 AI 支出，这将对英伟达造成伤害。但与英国和中国达成的近期贸易协议提升了人们的乐观情绪，认为进口关税水平不会像最初宣布的那样陡峭，从而避免了重大放缓。这帮助英伟达和其他成长型股票在最近几天反弹。</p>
</div><h2>A record of beating estimates</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>超越预期的记录</h2>
</div><p>Now, let's consider Nvidia's upcoming earnings report. The chip giant has a record of beating analysts' estimates and announcing positive news such as the successful launch of its Blackwell architecture during the last earnings period. Blackwell brought in $11 billion in revenue during that time, its first quarter of commercialization.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，让我们考虑一下英伟达即将发布的财报。这家芯片巨头在超越分析师预期方面有着良好的记录，并在上一个财报期间宣布了积极的消息，例如成功推出其 Blackwell 架构。Blackwell 在那段时间内带来了 110 亿美元的收入，这是其商业化的第一个季度。</p>
</div><p>There's reason to be optimistic about the report ahead, and we're already prepared for one particular negative point since Nvidia announced it a few weeks ago: a $5.5 billion charge related to U.S. restrictions on the export of its chips to China. So that piece of news shouldn't impact stock performance following the earnings announcement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于即将发布的财报，我们有理由保持乐观，同时我们已经为一个特定的负面因素做好了准备，因为英伟达几周前已宣布：与美国对其芯片出口中国的限制相关的 55 亿美元费用。因此，这条消息不应影响财报发布后的股价表现。</p>
</div><p>Considering all of this, will Nvidia soar on its earnings news? A look at history offers us some clues. I took a look at Nvidia's stock performance in the six months following the seven quarterly earnings reports from May 2023 through November 2024. (I didn't include the latest report, from this February, since six months haven't yet passed.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到这一切，英伟达会在财报发布后飙升吗？查看历史为我们提供了一些线索。我查看了英伟达在 2023 年 5 月至 2024 年 11 月期间七个季度财报发布后的六个月内的股价表现。（我没有包括今年 2 月的最新报告，因为六个月尚未过去。）</p>
</div><p>During the first five periods, Nvidia stock soared in the double-digits from the report through the following six months. Gains ranged from 50% to 90%. Only after the past two earnings reports has Nvidia declined in the six-month period -- and it's important to keep two things in mind regarding these declines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在前五个期间，英伟达的股价在财报发布后六个月内飙升了双位数，涨幅在 50% 到 90% 之间。只有在过去两个财报发布后，英伟达在六个月内出现了下跌——而且需要注意的是，这些下跌有两个重要因素。</p>
</div><h2>The reason behind recent declines</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最近下跌的原因</h2>
</div><p>First, they've been small, at less than 1% in the six months following the August 2024 earnings report and in the single digits following the November 2024 report. And second, the losses came mainly early this year, as part of the concern about Trump's tariffs and a general question about the future of AI spending. (That spending question was resolved after big Nvidia customers including <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> and <strong>Alphabet</strong> reiterated their AI investment plans for the year.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，这些下跌幅度较小，在 2024 年 8 月财报发布后的六个月内下跌不到 1%，在 2024 年 11 月财报发布后的六个月内则为个位数。其次，这些损失主要发生在今年年初，因对特朗普关税的担忧以及对 AI 支出未来的普遍质疑。（在包括 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 在内的大型英伟达客户重申其年度 AI 投资计划后，这一支出问题得以解决。）</p>
</div><p>Now let's consider what this tells us about Nvidia's performance post-May 28. If history is right, Nvidia is on track to soar, and in a big way, after its earnings report as this has happened most frequently in the past. That said, the declines we've seen after the past two earnings reports were heavily linked to tariff uncertainty. Though the tariff situation has improved, until the issue is completely resolved, it could represent a potential headwind for Nvidia's stock performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在让我们考虑一下这对英伟达在 5 月 28 日后的表现意味着什么。如果历史是正确的，英伟达在财报发布后有望大幅飙升，这在过去最为常见。尽管如此，我们在过去两个财报发布后看到的下跌与关税不确定性密切相关。尽管关税情况有所改善，但在问题完全解决之前，这可能会对英伟达的股价表现构成潜在阻力。</p>
</div><p>So all of this shows us that, yes, history says Nvidia could be heading for double-digit gains in the months to follow its earnings report -- but it's important to be aware that an unexpected economic or political issue could get in the way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，所有这些表明，历史确实显示英伟达可能在财报发布后的几个月内迎来双位数的涨幅——但需要注意的是，意外的经济或政治问题可能会阻碍这一进程。</p>
</div><p>The good news, though, is history shows us one other thing: Nvidia always has recovered from losses in the past and gone on to advance. And the company's strong competitive position and presence in a high growth market should help it do that again if it encounters tough times. And that means, whether Nvidia soars after May 28 or not, it still is very likely to win over the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，好消息是，历史还告诉我们另一件事：英伟达过去总是能够从损失中恢复并继续上涨。公司的强大竞争地位和在高增长市场中的存在应该能帮助它再次做到这一点。如果遇到困难，这意味着无论英伟达在 5 月 28 日后是否飙升，它在长期内仍然很可能会获胜。</p>
</div>

Will Nvidia Soar After May 28? History Offers a Decidedly Clear Answer.

- Nvidia 股价在 2023 和 2024 年上涨超过 800%。  
- 受总统关税政策影响，2025 年股价下跌约 1%。  
- 历史数据显示，财报发布后股价通常会大幅上涨。

英伟达会在 5 月 28 日后大幅上涨吗？历史给出了一个非常明确的答案