<p>分析 - 中国储户抱怨存款利率下降，但仍不愿意多消费</p><p>尽管存款利率降低，中国家庭仍在增加储蓄</p><p>较低的利率可能阻碍向消费驱动增长的转变</p><p>经济学家警告债务缠身行业面临 “僵尸化”</p><p>北京/新加坡，5 月 27 日（路透社）- 在中国银行上周降低存款利率后，Miro Chen 发起了一项社交媒体投票：“当利率下降时，你是选择储蓄还是消费？”</p><p>在约 5000 个回应中，超过 80% 选择了储蓄，这突显了政策制定者在提振需求和经济增长方面面临的挑战。</p><p>“结果是单方面的，表明人们非常担忧，” 这位 37 岁的南方互联网公司员工说。“我不确定我的公司还能生存多久，” 他补充道，解释了他为何也在储蓄。</p><p>中国央行上周放宽货币政策，以限制与华盛顿的贸易战造成的损害。周五，它降低了存款利率的上限，以缓解银行的利润压力，并促使储户更多消费或投资。</p><p>但近年来连续降低存款利率并未能遏制中国家庭储蓄的爆炸性增长，进一步加剧了人们对低回报对消费者的副作用的担忧，消费者往往会建立自己的安全网。</p><p>截至 3 月底，家庭存款总额超过 160 万亿元人民币（22.30 万亿美元），比去年增长 10.3%，相当于去年国内生产总值（GDP）的 118%，官方数据显示。相比之下，零售销售在第一季度同比增长 4.6%。</p><p>GlobalData.TS Lombard APAC 的高级经济学家 Minxiong Liao 表示，较低的利率 “可能会减少中国人口的收入增长”。</p><p>“人们，尤其是 1980 年代出生的人，可能需要在未来十年里储蓄更多，而不是消费，以确保退休现金流，因为低利率可能会持续。”</p><p>由于经济疲软面临通缩压力以及长期房地产危机带来的财富担忧，中国家庭一直在增加储蓄。</p><p>Liao 和其他经济学家表示，增加中国消费的最佳政策是加强养老金制度和其他社会福利，以减少家庭的储蓄需求。</p><p>自从一年前失去市场营销工作后，30 岁的 Lawrence Pan 现在是一名自由职业者，不再支付社会保险费，尽管他如果愿意可以支付。</p><p>他更愿意自己储蓄，因为他不信任国家系统，中国科学院认为该系统到 2035 年将面临资金短缺。</p><p>Pan 将大约三分之二的收入存入他的活期账户。他表示，定期存款的利息太低，让他不愿意去存款。</p><p>“我觉得如果存款利率更高，我的储蓄和消费习惯会更平衡。更高的利率表明经济在好转，” Pan 说。“在这种情况下，我会消费更多。”</p><p>‘止痛药’</p><p>中国一再承诺将家庭消费——约低于全球平均水平 20 个百分点的 GDP——作为经济增长更重要的驱动力。</p><p>世界第二大经济体去年在实现约 5% 的增长目标时严重依赖出口，分析师表示，美国提高关税的情况下，迫切需要采取措施将经济重心转向国内需求。</p><p>但较低的利率可能与这一目标背道而驰。</p><p>卡内基中国中心的高级研究员 Michael Pettis 表示，低利率促进了资源从经济中的净储户（在中国主要是家庭）向净借款者（即企业和政府部门）的转移。</p><p>“在像今天的中国这样的金融体系，以及 1990 年代的日本，较低的实际利率似乎并未促进消费，” Pettis 说。</p><p>与日本一样，日本经历了数十年的经济停滞，借款者的副作用也在增加。</p><p>Fathom Consulting 的高级经济学家 Elisabeth Werenskiold 表示，中国的货币政策宽松使许多企业在长期内依赖低借款成本，导致整个行业的 “僵尸化”。</p><p>她表示，建筑、航空、旅游和计算机服务等行业的现金流覆盖的利息支出不足五个月，低于五个月被描述为 “危险区”。</p><p>“这有点像止痛药，” Werenskiold 说。“你可以缓解疼痛，但除非你治疗根源，否则你必须继续服用止痛药，增加负面副作用的风险。”</p><p>节俭的家庭也可能迫使整个经济采取削减成本的措施，冒着通缩螺旋的风险。</p><p>32 岁的图书编辑 Erin Yao 去年从北京搬到中国中部的武汉，以节省更多收入。她所在公司的战略转向低成本书籍让她对经济感到担忧，因此即使存款利率降至零，她也计划为雨天存钱。</p><p>“我对存款利率下降的第一反应是：经济是否进入了下行期？” Yao 说。</p><p>“我不会把所有的钱都花在享受生活上。我会留一些钱，以防我或我的父母生病，” 她说。</p><p>（$1 = 7.1747 人民币）</p>

<p>中国储户对存款利率下降的担忧日益加剧，在一项社交媒体调查中，超过 80% 的受访者选择储蓄而非消费。尽管降低利率旨在刺激消费，但家庭储蓄仍在增长，已达到 160 万亿元人民币。经济学家警告称，持续的低利率可能会阻碍经济增长，并导致负债累累行业的 “僵尸化”。为了刺激消费，专家建议改善养老金制度和社会福利，因为许多家庭因工作安全感和经济不确定性而优先选择储蓄</p>

<p>ANALYSIS-Chinese savers decry falling deposit rates but still won't spend more</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析 - 中国储户抱怨存款利率下降，但仍不愿意多消费</p>
</div><p>Chinese households save more despite lower deposit rates</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管存款利率降低，中国家庭仍在增加储蓄</p>
</div><p>Lower rates may hinder shift to consumption-driven growth</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>较低的利率可能阻碍向消费驱动增长的转变</p>
</div><p>Economists warn of 'zombification' in debt-ridden sectors</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济学家警告债务缠身行业面临 “僵尸化”</p>
</div><p>BEIJING/SINGAPORE, May 27 (Reuters) - After Chinese banks reduced deposit rates last week, Miro Chen launched a social media poll: &#34;When interest rates fall, do you save or spend?&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>北京/新加坡，5 月 27 日（路透社）- 在中国银行上周降低存款利率后，Miro Chen 发起了一项社交媒体投票：“当利率下降时，你是选择储蓄还是消费？”</p>
</div><p>More than 80% of some 5,000 responses chose saving, underlining the challenge for policymakers seeking to shore up demand and economic growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在约 5000 个回应中，超过 80% 选择了储蓄，这突显了政策制定者在提振需求和经济增长方面面临的挑战。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The result is one-sided, indicating people are very worried,&#34; said the 37-year-old, who works for an internet company in southern China. &#34;I am not sure how long my company can survive,&#34; he added, explaining why he also saves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“结果是单方面的，表明人们非常担忧，” 这位 37 岁的南方互联网公司员工说。“我不确定我的公司还能生存多久，” 他补充道，解释了他为何也在储蓄。</p>
</div><p>China's central bank eased monetary policy last week to limit damage from the trade war with Washington. On Friday, it lowered the ceiling for deposit rates to offset margin pressure on banks and prompt savers to spend or invest more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国央行上周放宽货币政策，以限制与华盛顿的贸易战造成的损害。周五，它降低了存款利率的上限，以缓解银行的利润压力，并促使储户更多消费或投资。</p>
</div><p>But successive cuts to deposit rates in recent years have failed to curb explosive growth in Chinese household savings, intensifying concerns over the side-effects that lower returns have on the country's consumers, who tend to build their own safety net.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但近年来连续降低存款利率并未能遏制中国家庭储蓄的爆炸性增长，进一步加剧了人们对低回报对消费者的副作用的担忧，消费者往往会建立自己的安全网。</p>
</div><p>At the end of March, total household deposits surpassed 160 trillion yuan ($22.30 trillion), up 10.3% from a year before, and equivalent to 118% of last year's gross domestic product (GDP), official data show. Retail sales, by comparison, rose 4.6% year-on-year in the first quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 3 月底，家庭存款总额超过 160 万亿元人民币（22.30 万亿美元），比去年增长 10.3%，相当于去年国内生产总值（GDP）的 118%，官方数据显示。相比之下，零售销售在第一季度同比增长 4.6%。</p>
</div><p>Minxiong Liao, senior economist at GlobalData.TS Lombard APAC, says lower interest rates &#34;likely reduce income growth&#34; for China's population.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>GlobalData.TS Lombard APAC 的高级经济学家 Minxiong Liao 表示，较低的利率 “可能会减少中国人口的收入增长”。</p>
</div><p>&#34;People, especially those born in the 1980s, may need to save more rather than spend in the coming decade to secure retirement cashflow, as low interest rates are likely to persist.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“人们，尤其是 1980 年代出生的人，可能需要在未来十年里储蓄更多，而不是消费，以确保退休现金流，因为低利率可能会持续。”</p>
</div><p>Chinese households have been saving more due to worries over job security in a stuttering economy facing deflationary pressures, as well as wealth concerns caused by a prolonged property crisis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于经济疲软面临通缩压力以及长期房地产危机带来的财富担忧，中国家庭一直在增加储蓄。</p>
</div><p>Liao and other economists say the best policies to increase consumption in China would be bolstering its pension system and other social benefits to curb households' savings needs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Liao 和其他经济学家表示，增加中国消费的最佳政策是加强养老金制度和其他社会福利，以减少家庭的储蓄需求。</p>
</div><p>Since losing his marketing job a year ago, 30-year-old Lawrence Pan, now a freelancer, no longer pays his social insurance contributions, although he could if he chose to.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自从一年前失去市场营销工作后，30 岁的 Lawrence Pan 现在是一名自由职业者，不再支付社会保险费，尽管他如果愿意可以支付。</p>
</div><p>He prefers to save money on his own as he doesn't trust the state system, which the Chinese Academy of Sciences sees running out of money by 2035.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他更愿意自己储蓄，因为他不信任国家系统，中国科学院认为该系统到 2035 年将面临资金短缺。</p>
</div><p>Pan saves about two-thirds of his income into his current account. He says fixed-term savings offer too little interest for him to bother with deposits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Pan 将大约三分之二的收入存入他的活期账户。他表示，定期存款的利息太低，让他不愿意去存款。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I feel my savings and spending habits would be more balanced if deposit rates were higher. A higher interest rate signals that the economy is getting better,&#34; said Pan. &#34;In such a scenario, I would spend more.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我觉得如果存款利率更高，我的储蓄和消费习惯会更平衡。更高的利率表明经济在好转，” Pan 说。“在这种情况下，我会消费更多。”</p>
</div><p>'PAINKILLERS'</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>‘止痛药’</p>
</div><p>China has repeatedly pledged to make household consumption - which is about 20 percentage points of GDP below the global average - a more important driver of economic growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国一再承诺将家庭消费——约低于全球平均水平 20 个百分点的 GDP——作为经济增长更重要的驱动力。</p>
</div><p>The world's second-largest economy relied heavily on exports last year to hit its roughly 5% expansion target and analysts say higher U.S. tariffs call for greater urgency on measures that rebalance the economy towards domestic demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>世界第二大经济体去年在实现约 5% 的增长目标时严重依赖出口，分析师表示，美国提高关税的情况下，迫切需要采取措施将经济重心转向国内需求。</p>
</div><p>But lower interest rates may work against that aim.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但较低的利率可能与这一目标背道而驰。</p>
</div><p>Michael Pettis, senior fellow at Carnegie China, says they facilitate a transfer of resources from the net savers in the economy - mainly households in China's case - to the net borrowers, which are the business and government sectors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卡内基中国中心的高级研究员 Michael Pettis 表示，低利率促进了资源从经济中的净储户（在中国主要是家庭）向净借款者（即企业和政府部门）的转移。</p>
</div><p>&#34;In a financial system like that of China today, and also of Japan in the 1990s, lower real interest rates don't seem to boost consumption,&#34; Pettis said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在像今天的中国这样的金融体系，以及 1990 年代的日本，较低的实际利率似乎并未促进消费，” Pettis 说。</p>
</div><p>Also like in Japan, which has grappled with decades of economic stagnation, the side effects on borrowers are growing as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与日本一样，日本经历了数十年的经济停滞，借款者的副作用也在增加。</p>
</div><p>Elisabeth Werenskiold, senior economist at Fathom Consulting, says monetary policy easing in China makes many businesses dependent on low borrowing costs in the long run, leading to the &#34;zombification&#34; of entire industries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Fathom Consulting 的高级经济学家 Elisabeth Werenskiold 表示，中国的货币政策宽松使许多企业在长期内依赖低借款成本，导致整个行业的 “僵尸化”。</p>
</div><p>She says cash flow in sectors such as construction, airlines, travel and computer services covers less than five months of interest expenses, describing anything below five as the &#34;danger zone&#34;.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>她表示，建筑、航空、旅游和计算机服务等行业的现金流覆盖的利息支出不足五个月，低于五个月被描述为 “危险区”。</p>
</div><p>&#34;It's a bit like painkillers,&#34; Werenskiold said. &#34;You can treat the pain, but unless you treat the source you'll have to keep taking the painkillers, increasing the risk of negative side effects.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这有点像止痛药，” Werenskiold 说。“你可以缓解疼痛，但除非你治疗根源，否则你必须继续服用止痛药，增加负面副作用的风险。”</p>
</div><p>Thrifty households can also force cost-cutting measures throughout the economy, risking a deflationary spiral.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>节俭的家庭也可能迫使整个经济采取削减成本的措施，冒着通缩螺旋的风险。</p>
</div><p>Book editor Erin Yao, 32, moved last year from Beijing to cheaper Wuhan in central China to save more of her income. Her company's strategy shift to lower-cost books makes her worry about the economy, so she plans to put money aside for rainy days even if deposit rates drop to zero.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>32 岁的图书编辑 Erin Yao 去年从北京搬到中国中部的武汉，以节省更多收入。她所在公司的战略转向低成本书籍让她对经济感到担忧，因此即使存款利率降至零，她也计划为雨天存钱。</p>
</div><p>&#34;My first reaction to the deposit rate cut was: has the economy entered a downturn?&#34; Yao said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我对存款利率下降的第一反应是：经济是否进入了下行期？” Yao 说。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I won't spend all my money to enjoy life now. I will keep something aside in case my parents or I become ill,&#34; she said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我不会把所有的钱都花在享受生活上。我会留一些钱，以防我或我的父母生病，” 她说。</p>
</div><p>($1 = 7.1747 Chinese yuan renminbi)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（$1 = 7.1747 人民币）</p>
</div><p>Chinese people prefer to keep their money in the bank https://reut.rs/4kderxK</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国人更喜欢把钱存入银行 https://reut.rs/4kderxK</p>
</div><p>China's zombie industries https://reut.rs/3HaJU4Y</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国的僵尸产业 https://reut.rs/3HaJU4Y</p>
</div>

ANALYSIS-Chinese savers decry falling deposit rates but still won't spend more

- 中国家庭在存款利率降低的情况下仍增加储蓄。  
- 经济学家警告称，低利率可能导致 “僵尸化” 现象。  
- 政策制定者面临挑战，难以推动消费增长。

分析：中国储户对存款利率下降表示不满，但仍然不愿增加消费