<p>第二季度最受期待的日子之一已经到来。在一系列经济数据发布和唐纳德·特朗普总统定期更改其政府的关税和贸易政策的背景下，华尔街的人工智能（AI）宠儿 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 3.07%）将在今天（5 月 28 日）收盘后公布其 2026 财年第一季度的运营结果。</p>
<p>许多投资者往往关注那些基本的关键数字，包括 Nvidia 在财年的第一季度的收入和每股收益（EPS），以及其第二季度和全年的指导。这些关键数字通常为投资者提供了一种极快的方式来评估公司过去的表现和/或未来的表现。</p>
<p>但如果你只是等待 Nvidia 的销售和 EPS 数据，你将错过大局。一个潜在的运营指标可能会在 5 月 28 日决定 Nvidia 股票的成败。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg5NTcvYWNjb3VudGFudC1iYWxhbmNlLXNoZWV0LWNvcnBvcmF0ZS1pbmNvbWUtc3RhdGVtZW50LWVhcm5pbmdzLWNhbGN1bGF0b3ItZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg5NTcvYWNjb3VudGFudC1iYWxhbmNlLXNoZWV0LWNvcnBvcmF0ZS1pbmNvbWUtc3RhdGVtZW50LWVhcm5pbmdzLWNhbGN1bGF0b3ItZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 并不是偶然成为华尔街领先的 AI 股票</h2>
<p>进入 2023 年，Nvidia 是一家相当重要的科技公司，市值为 3600 亿美元，因其用于高性能游戏和加密货币挖矿的图形处理单元（GPU）而广为人知。截至目前，它已成为市值 3.3 万亿美元的巨头，毫无疑问是全球最重要的科技股票。</p>
<p>在过去两年中，Nvidia 的 Hopper（H100）GPU 及其后续产品 Blackwell GPU 一直是 AI 加速数据中心的支柱。这两款芯片合计占据了目前在高计算数据中心中部署的 GPU 的绝大部分。</p>
<p>但 Nvidia 的成功不仅仅是因为其市场份额——它的卓越表现源于供需法则。渴望构建 AI 数据中心基础设施的企业发现，专注于 AI 的 GPU 供应短缺。即使全球领先的芯片制造商 <strong>台积电</strong> 以惊人的速度扩大生产能力，对 Nvidia 芯片的需求仍然超过其供应。</p>
<p>当某种商品或服务的需求超过供应时，预计该商品或服务的价格将上涨，直到需求减弱。Nvidia 在提高价格方面几乎没有问题，每个芯片的售价比外部竞争对手高出两到四倍。这对公司的销售和利润来说是个好消息。</p>
<p>Nvidia 的创新也帮助其（及其股票）保持在顶端。首席执行官黄仁勋计划在 2027 年前每年推出一款更强大、更节能的芯片。Hopper 和 Blackwell 之后是 Blackwell Ultra、Vera Rubin 和 Vera Rubin Ultra，后两者将采用新的处理器。没有外部竞争对手在计算能力上能与 Nvidia 相提并论。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg5NTcvZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItZW5naW5lZXItZ3B1LWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWFpLWNsb3VkLXNlcnZlci1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg5NTcvZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItZW5naW5lZXItZ3B1LWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWFpLWNsb3VkLXNlcnZlci1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>5 月 28 日一切都取决于这个运营指标</h2>
<p>根据近期历史数据，Nvidia 超越华尔街共识销售和 EPS 预测的机会高于平均水平。Nvidia 已经连续九个季度超过分析师的共识 EPS 预测。</p>
<p>但还有一个指标能更全面地反映 Nvidia 的运营健康状况：其公认会计原则（GAAP）毛利率。</p>
<p>毛利率（也称为 “毛利润率”）是销售收入在扣除销售成本后剩余的简单计算（以百分比表示）。例如，如果你的销售额为 100 美元，而销售成本为 20 美元，则你的毛利率为 80%（100 – 20 = 80，且（80/100 X 100）= 80%）。</p>
<p>自从 Hopper 成为炙手可热的产品以来，Nvidia 的 GAAP 毛利率飙升。在 2024 年初能够以超过 40,000 美元的价格出售每个芯片，使其 GAAP 毛利率在 2025 财年第一季度达到 78.4% 的峰值，这反过来又帮助 Nvidia 的净收入飙升。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/799afc521e48f3beb7d99a76b4860448.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/799afc521e48f3beb7d99a76b4860448.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 毛利润率（季度）数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>然而，Nvidia 的 GAAP 毛利率自去年同期以来发生了变化（所有季度均基于 Nvidia 的财年，财年在 1 月底结束）：</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>2025 财年第一季度</strong>：78.4%</li>
<li><strong>2025 财年第二季度</strong>：75.1%</li>
<li><strong>2025 财年第三季度</strong>：74.6%</li>
<li><strong>2025 财年第四季度</strong>：73%</li>
<li><strong>2026 财年第一季度</strong>：70.6% 预估（+/- 50 个基点）</li>
</ul>
<p>客观地说，70.6% 的 GAAP 毛利率仍然比 Nvidia 在 AI 热潮之前的 10 年中高端波动的毛利率高出约 500 个基点。此外，该公司现在的净销售额远高于一年前的 78.4% GAAP 毛利率时的水平。</p>
<p>然而，趋势正在形成——而且并不是一个令人鼓舞的趋势。</p>
<p>Nvidia（预计）的 GAAP 毛利率在四个季度内的下降似乎与 AI 加速数据中心竞争加剧直接相关。虽然部分竞争来自外部，但更令人担忧的是，许多核心客户正在开发自己的 AI-GPU 和 AI 解决方案。尽管这些内部开发的芯片和解决方案在计算能力上无法与 Nvidia 的硬件相提并论，但它们的成本显著更低且没有积压。换句话说，这为 Nvidia 在未来的数据中心市场失去机会提供了一个不利的局面。</p>
<p>对于英伟达来说，问题的核心在于这种外部和内部竞争的结合正在逐渐（请原谅这个恰如其分的双关语）削弱其最大的优势：定价权。华尔街的人工智能宠儿依赖于人工智能 GPU 的稀缺性，为其 Hopper 和 Blackwell 芯片收取高额溢价。随着这种稀缺性现在正在减弱，并预计在未来几个季度会继续减弱，英伟达的定价权可能真的会消退。我们很可能已经在公司的 GAAP 毛利率下降中见证了这一点。</p>
<p>当英伟达在 5 月 28 日收盘后公布其财政第一季度业绩时，GAAP 毛利率将揭示真相。如果其第二季度 GAAP 毛利率预测高于第一季度报告的数字，英伟达的股票将焕发新生。但如果预测显示 GAAP 毛利率将连续第五个季度下降，英伟达的股票可能会进一步下跌。</p>

英伟达

<p>英伟达计划于 5 月 28 日公布其 2026 财年第一季度的运营结果，重点关注其 GAAP 毛利率，这是一个关键的运营指标。尽管英伟达在销售和每股收益预测方面有着强劲的超越历史，但其毛利率却在下降，预计 2026 年第一季度为 70.6%，低于 2025 年第一季度的 78.4%。这一趋势在人工智能加速的数据中心竞争日益激烈的背景下引发了担忧，尽管英伟达在市场上仍然是领导者，其 GPU 的需求依然强劲</p>

<p>One of the most-anticipated days of the second quarter has arrived. Amid a flurry of economic data and President Donald Trump regularly changing his administration's tariff and trade policies, Wall Street's artificial intelligence (AI) darling <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 3.07%) is set to report its fiscal 2026 first-quarter operating results after the closing bell today (May 28).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第二季度最受期待的日子之一已经到来。在一系列经济数据发布和唐纳德·特朗普总统定期更改其政府的关税和贸易政策的背景下，华尔街的人工智能（AI）宠儿 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 3.07%）将在今天（5 月 28 日）收盘后公布其 2026 财年第一季度的运营结果。</p>
</div><p>A lot of investors tend to focus on the bread-and-butter headline numbers, which includes Nvidia's revenue and earnings per share (EPS) for the fiscal first quarter, as well as its second-quarter and full-year guidance. These headline figures often provide an extremely quick way for investors to size up how a company performed and/or will perform moving forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多投资者往往关注那些基本的关键数字，包括 Nvidia 在财年的第一季度的收入和每股收益（EPS），以及其第二季度和全年的指导。这些关键数字通常为投资者提供了一种极快的方式来评估公司过去的表现和/或未来的表现。</p>
</div><p>But if you're just awaiting Nvidia's sales and EPS figures, you'll be missing the big picture. One beneath-the-surface operating metric is what has the potential to make or break Nvidia stock on May 28.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果你只是等待 Nvidia 的销售和 EPS 数据，你将错过大局。一个潜在的运营指标可能会在 5 月 28 日决定 Nvidia 股票的成败。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg5NTcvYWNjb3VudGFudC1iYWxhbmNlLXNoZWV0LWNvcnBvcmF0ZS1pbmNvbWUtc3RhdGVtZW50LWVhcm5pbmdzLWNhbGN1bGF0b3ItZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F818957%2Faccountant-balance-sheet-corporate-income-statement-earnings-calculator-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia didn't become Wall Street's leading AI stock by accident</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 并不是偶然成为华尔街领先的 AI 股票</h2>
</div><p>Heading into 2023, Nvidia was a reasonably important tech company with a $360 billion market cap that was prominently known for its graphics processing units (GPUs) used in high-performance gaming and cryptocurrency mining. As of this writing, it's a $3.3 trillion juggernaut that's arguably the most-important tech stock on the planet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>进入 2023 年，Nvidia 是一家相当重要的科技公司，市值为 3600 亿美元，因其用于高性能游戏和加密货币挖矿的图形处理单元（GPU）而广为人知。截至目前，它已成为市值 3.3 万亿美元的巨头，毫无疑问是全球最重要的科技股票。</p>
</div><p>For more than two years, Nvidia's Hopper (H100) GPU and successor Blackwell GPUs have been the backbone of AI-accelerated data centers. Combined, these two chips account for the lion's share of GPUs currently deployed in high-compute data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去两年中，Nvidia 的 Hopper（H100）GPU 及其后续产品 Blackwell GPU 一直是 AI 加速数据中心的支柱。这两款芯片合计占据了目前在高计算数据中心中部署的 GPU 的绝大部分。</p>
</div><p>But Nvidia isn't winning solely because of its market share -- it's excelling due to the law of supply and-demand. Businesses eager to build out their AI-data center infrastructure have found AI-focused GPUs are in short supply. Even with world-leading chip fabricator <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong> expanding its production capacity at a breakneck pace, demand for Nvidia's chips continue to swamp their supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但 Nvidia 的成功不仅仅是因为其市场份额——它的卓越表现源于供需法则。渴望构建 AI 数据中心基础设施的企业发现，专注于 AI 的 GPU 供应短缺。即使全球领先的芯片制造商 <strong>台积电</strong> 以惊人的速度扩大生产能力，对 Nvidia 芯片的需求仍然超过其供应。</p>
</div><p>When demand for a good or service outpaces supply, it's expected that the price of said good or service will rise until demand tapers. Nvidia has had little issue raising its prices and charging two to four times more per chip than its external rivals. That's excellent news for the company's sales and profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当某种商品或服务的需求超过供应时，预计该商品或服务的价格将上涨，直到需求减弱。Nvidia 在提高价格方面几乎没有问题，每个芯片的售价比外部竞争对手高出两到四倍。这对公司的销售和利润来说是个好消息。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's innovation has helped keep it (and its stock) atop the pedestal, as well. CEO Jensen Huang aims to bring a more powerful and energy-efficient chip to market annually through 2027. Following the Hopper and Blackwell are Blackwell Ultra, Vera Rubin, and Vera Rubin Ultra, the latter two of which will be run on a new processor. No external competitors are particularly close to dethroning Nvidia in terms of compute abilities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 的创新也帮助其（及其股票）保持在顶端。首席执行官黄仁勋计划在 2027 年前每年推出一款更强大、更节能的芯片。Hopper 和 Blackwell 之后是 Blackwell Ultra、Vera Rubin 和 Vera Rubin Ultra，后两者将采用新的处理器。没有外部竞争对手在计算能力上能与 Nvidia 相提并论。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg5NTcvZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItZW5naW5lZXItZ3B1LWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWFpLWNsb3VkLXNlcnZlci1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F818957%2Fdata-center-engineer-gpu-artificial-intelligence-ai-cloud-server-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Everything rests on this operating metric on May 28</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>5 月 28 日一切都取决于这个运营指标</h2>
</div><p>Based on what recent history has shown, Nvidia has a better-than-average chance of surpassing Wall Street's consensus sales and EPS forecast for the fiscal first quarter. Nvidia has topped analysts' consensus EPS forecast for nine consecutive quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据近期历史数据，Nvidia 超越华尔街共识销售和 EPS 预测的机会高于平均水平。Nvidia 已经连续九个季度超过分析师的共识 EPS 预测。</p>
</div><p>But there's another metric that tells a more comprehensive story about Nvidia's operating health: its generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) gross margin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但还有一个指标能更全面地反映 Nvidia 的运营健康状况：其公认会计原则（GAAP）毛利率。</p>
</div><p>Gross margin (also called &#34;gross profit margin&#34;) is a simple calculation of revenue remaining (expressed as a percentage) after deducting for cost of goods sold. For example, if you brought in $100 in sales and your cost of goods was $20, your gross margin would be 80% (100 – 20 = 80, and (80/100 X 100) = 80%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率（也称为 “毛利润率”）是销售收入在扣除销售成本后剩余的简单计算（以百分比表示）。例如，如果你的销售额为 100 美元，而销售成本为 20 美元，则你的毛利率为 80%（100 – 20 = 80，且（80/100 X 100）= 80%）。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's GAAP gross margin soared after the Hopper became the hottest thing since sliced bread. Being able to charge more than $40,000 per chip in early 2024 sent its GAAP gross margin to a peak of 78.4% during the fiscal 2025 first quarter, which in turn helped Nvidia's net income skyrocket.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自从 Hopper 成为炙手可热的产品以来，Nvidia 的 GAAP 毛利率飙升。在 2024 年初能够以超过 40,000 美元的价格出售每个芯片，使其 GAAP 毛利率在 2025 财年第一季度达到 78.4% 的峰值，这反过来又帮助 Nvidia 的净收入飙升。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/799afc521e48f3beb7d99a76b4860448.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/799afc521e48f3beb7d99a76b4860448.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA Gross Profit Margin (Quarterly) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 毛利润率（季度）数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>However, Nvidia's GAAP gross margin has changed course since the comparable quarter one year ago (all quarters based on Nvidia's fiscal year, which ends in late January):</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Nvidia 的 GAAP 毛利率自去年同期以来发生了变化（所有季度均基于 Nvidia 的财年，财年在 1 月底结束）：</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Q1 2025</strong>: 78.4%</li>
<li><strong>Q2 2025</strong>: 75.1%</li>
<li><strong>Q3 2025</strong>: 74.6%</li>
<li><strong>Q4 2025</strong>: 73%</li>
<li><strong>Q1 2026</strong>: 70.6% est. (+/- 50 basis points)</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>2025 财年第一季度</strong>：78.4%</li>
<li><strong>2025 财年第二季度</strong>：75.1%</li>
<li><strong>2025 财年第三季度</strong>：74.6%</li>
<li><strong>2025 财年第四季度</strong>：73%</li>
<li><strong>2026 财年第一季度</strong>：70.6% 预估（+/- 50 个基点）</li>
</ul>
</div><p>To be objective, a GAAP gross margin of 70.6% would still about 500 basis points higher than where Nvidia's gross margin had been vacillating at the high-end over the previous 10 years before the AI boom. Further, the company is generating considerably more in net sales now than it was even one year ago when it had a 78.4% GAAP gross margin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>客观地说，70.6% 的 GAAP 毛利率仍然比 Nvidia 在 AI 热潮之前的 10 年中高端波动的毛利率高出约 500 个基点。此外，该公司现在的净销售额远高于一年前的 78.4% GAAP 毛利率时的水平。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, a trend is being set -- and not an encouraging one.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，趋势正在形成——而且并不是一个令人鼓舞的趋势。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's (expected) four-quarter decline in GAAP gross margin looks to be directly related to increasing competition in AI-accelerated data centers. While some of this competition is external, what's more worrisome for Nvidia is that many of its core customers by net sales are developing their own AI-GPUs and AI solutions. Even though these internally developed chips and solutions can't hold water next to the compute potential of Nvidia's hardware, they're considerably cheaper and not backlogged. In other words, it's a recipe for Nvidia to lose out on future data center real estate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia（预计）的 GAAP 毛利率在四个季度内的下降似乎与 AI 加速数据中心竞争加剧直接相关。虽然部分竞争来自外部，但更令人担忧的是，许多核心客户正在开发自己的 AI-GPU 和 AI 解决方案。尽管这些内部开发的芯片和解决方案在计算能力上无法与 Nvidia 的硬件相提并论，但它们的成本显著更低且没有积压。换句话说，这为 Nvidia 在未来的数据中心市场失去机会提供了一个不利的局面。</p>
</div><p>The heart of the problem for Nvidia is that this combination of external and internal competition is steadily (pardon the apropos pun) chipping away at its biggest advantage: its pricing power. Wall Street's AI darling has relied on AI-GPU scarcity to charge an exorbitant premium for its Hopper and Blackwell chips. With this scarcity now diminishing, and expected to wane in future quarters, there's the real possibility of Nvidia's pricing power fading. Chances are that we're already witnessing this in the company's GAAP gross margin decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于英伟达来说，问题的核心在于这种外部和内部竞争的结合正在逐渐（请原谅这个恰如其分的双关语）削弱其最大的优势：定价权。华尔街的人工智能宠儿依赖于人工智能 GPU 的稀缺性，为其 Hopper 和 Blackwell 芯片收取高额溢价。随着这种稀缺性现在正在减弱，并预计在未来几个季度会继续减弱，英伟达的定价权可能真的会消退。我们很可能已经在公司的 GAAP 毛利率下降中见证了这一点。</p>
</div><p>When Nvidia reports its fiscal first quarter results after the bell on May 28, its GAAP gross margin will tell the tale. If its second quarter GAAP gross margin forecast points higher than what's reported for the first quarter, Nvidia stock can breathe new life. But if the forecast calls for a fifth consecutive quarterly decline in GAAP gross margin, Nvidia stock could have further to fall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当英伟达在 5 月 28 日收盘后公布其财政第一季度业绩时，GAAP 毛利率将揭示真相。如果其第二季度 GAAP 毛利率预测高于第一季度报告的数字，英伟达的股票将焕发新生。但如果预测显示 GAAP 毛利率将连续第五个季度下降，英伟达的股票可能会进一步下跌。</p>
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This Operating Metric Is Going to Make or Break Nvidia Stock on May 28

- Nvidia 将于 5 月 28 日发布 2026 财年第一季度财报。  
- 关键指标为 GAAP 毛利率，预计将连续四个季度下降。  
- 竞争加剧可能影响 Nvidia 的定价能力和市场地位。  

这个运营指标将在 5 月 28 日决定 NVIDIA 股票的成败