<p>美国法院的关税裁决给市场带来了短期的上涨，但长期却令人担忧</p><p>尽管暂时乐观，政策不确定性依然存在</p><p>投资策略转向短期视野</p><p>法院裁决提振了亚洲市场，以韩国和日本为首</p><p>作者：Rocky Swift 和 Ankur Banerjee</p><p>东京，5 月 29 日（路透社）- 美国总统特朗普的广泛关税面临法律障碍，周四市场对此反应积极，但政策和经济长期停滞的风险让投资者感到更加忧虑。</p><p>在特朗普宣布的 “解放日” 关税后，尽管市场经历了一轮暴跌，但大多数股市已经回升，特朗普的关税自近两个月前宣布以来一直被反复推迟和调整。最新的变化是美国贸易法院阻止了关税的实施。</p><p>特朗普政府立即对这一裁决提出上诉，但这给风险资产和美元带来了一些乐观情绪，美元是混乱的关税推出中最大的受害者之一。</p><p>然而，周三裁决带来的长期不确定性将对企业造成经济损失，Invesco 亚太区全球市场策略师 David Chao 表示。</p><p>“我最大的担忧是公司开始推迟招聘、资本支出或给工厂员工加薪，” 他说。“这无疑会对公司盈利造成影响，消费也可能受到影响。”</p><p>在 4 月 2 日的关税冲击后，特朗普暂停了大多数进口关税 90 天，并誓言与贸易伙伴达成双边协议。</p><p>然而，除了本月与英国达成的协议外，其他协议仍然难以达成，法院对关税的暂停可能会让像日本这样的国家不急于达成协议，Chao 补充道。</p><p>目前，这一裁决对市场情绪是 “边际上的积极” 因素，因为它减少了对增长的最悲观预期，Saxo 新加坡首席投资策略师 Charu Chanana 表示。</p><p>“特朗普仍然可能有机会上诉或施加更狭窄的行业特定关税，因此政策不确定性依然存在，” Chanana 说。“企业仍然没有明确的方向，政策路径仍然不稳定。”</p><p>市场在特朗普的反复关税变化中剧烈波动。自关税宣布以来，标准普尔 500 指数上涨了 3.8%，欧洲股票上涨了 2.2%，而中国基准指数几乎持平。</p><p>黄金价格虽然未能创下新高，但在这八周内仍上涨超过 4%，而美元指数下跌了 4%。十年期国债收益率上涨了 30 个基点，约为 4.5%。</p><p>国际贸易法院的裁决消息推动了亚洲股市基准的上涨，以韩国的 Kospi 和日本的日经指数为首。两者自 “解放日” 以来均上涨超过 7%，当时特朗普的关税混乱和对美国赤字扩大的担忧促使投资者从以美元计价的证券转向其他资产。</p><p>目前，这一压力有所缓解，但必须保持谨慎，以防更高法院推翻最新裁决，ITC Markets 悉尼的高级分析师 Sean Callow 表示。</p><p>“资金的重心正在放在美国法院阻止白宫自我施加经济损害的可能性上，这使得美国的增长前景和美元变得更加光明，” 他说。</p><p>波动性和政策反转定义了这一交易环境，投资者也在相应地做出反应，Aberdeen Investments 东南亚多资产投资解决方案负责人 Ray Sharma-Ong 表示。</p><p>“贸易和投资组合策略已转向更短的投资视野，” 他说。“投资组合更倾向于战术交易，重点关注与特朗普政策相关的关键催化剂和事件。”</p><p>最终，这种贸易不确定性对投资和经济增长是有害的，促使首席执行官和政策制定者推迟重大决策，Neuberger Berman 东京的投资组合经理 Kei Okamura 表示。</p><p>“这种停停走走对需要做出可能需要数年甚至十年才能实施的决策的企业没有帮助，” Okamura 说。“对于中央银行而言，这一发展只是加强了他们的观望态度。”</p><p>特朗普的关税 - 下一步在哪里？ https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-TRUMP/TARIFFS-ADVISERS/byvrxabjkve/chart.png</p><p>国际货币基金组织关于美国贸易关税的图表 https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/znvnjoodbvl/Two.PNG</p>

<p>最近美国法院裁定阻止特朗普总统的关税，这为市场，特别是亚洲市场，提供了暂时的提振，但也引发了对长期经济不确定性的担忧。尽管股市反弹，专家警告称，持续的政策模糊性可能会阻碍企业投资和招聘。该裁定导致投资策略向短期转变，因为企业在潜在的未来关税变化中保持谨慎。总体而言，这一情况反映了一个动荡的交易环境，可能会影响经济增长以及公司和政策制定者的决策</p>

<p>US court's tariff ruling gives markets short-term pop, long-term angst</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国法院的关税裁决给市场带来了短期的上涨，但长期却令人担忧</p>
</div><p>Policy uncertainty persists despite temporary optimism</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管暂时乐观，政策不确定性依然存在</p>
</div><p>Investment strategies shift to shorter horizons</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资策略转向短期视野</p>
</div><p>Court ruling boosts Asian markets, led by South Korea, Japan</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>法院裁决提振了亚洲市场，以韩国和日本为首</p>
</div><p>By Rocky Swift and Ankur Banerjee</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Rocky Swift 和 Ankur Banerjee</p>
</div><p>TOKYO, May 29 (Reuters) - A legal roadblock on U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs drew early cheer from markets on Thursday, but the risks of extended policy and economic paralysis cast a deeper shadow for investors worried about the longer term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>东京，5 月 29 日（路透社）- 美国总统特朗普的广泛关税面临法律障碍，周四市场对此反应积极，但政策和经济长期停滞的风险让投资者感到更加忧虑。</p>
</div><p>Most equity markets are back above water after routs following Trump's &#34;Liberation Day&#34; tariffs announced nearly two months ago, only to be repeatedly delayed and adjusted since then. The latest twist is a U.S. trade court blocking the levies from going into effect.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在特朗普宣布的 “解放日” 关税后，尽管市场经历了一轮暴跌，但大多数股市已经回升，特朗普的关税自近两个月前宣布以来一直被反复推迟和调整。最新的变化是美国贸易法院阻止了关税的实施。</p>
</div><p>Trump's administration immediately appealed the ruling, but it breathed some optimism, however temporary, into risk assets and the U.S. dollar, one of the biggest losers from the chaotic tariff rollout.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普政府立即对这一裁决提出上诉，但这给风险资产和美元带来了一些乐观情绪，美元是混乱的关税推出中最大的受害者之一。</p>
</div><p>The prolonged uncertainty from Wednesday's ruling, however, will take an economic toll on firms longer-term, said David Chao, global market strategist for Asia Pacific at Invesco.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，周三裁决带来的长期不确定性将对企业造成经济损失，Invesco 亚太区全球市场策略师 David Chao 表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;My big worry is that companies start to put off things like hiring or capital expense or giving people raises for these factories or manufacturing,&#34; he said. &#34;And that could certainly put a damper then on company earnings and consumption could also be impacted by that.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我最大的担忧是公司开始推迟招聘、资本支出或给工厂员工加薪，” 他说。“这无疑会对公司盈利造成影响，消费也可能受到影响。”</p>
</div><p>Following the market revolt after his April 2 tariff shock, Trump paused most import duties for 90 days and vowed to hammer out bilateral deals with trade partners.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 4 月 2 日的关税冲击后，特朗普暂停了大多数进口关税 90 天，并誓言与贸易伙伴达成双边协议。</p>
</div><p>However, other than a pact with Britain this month, agreements remain elusive and the court's stay on the tariffs may dissuade countries like Japan from rushing into deals, Chao added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，除了本月与英国达成的协议外，其他协议仍然难以达成，法院对关税的暂停可能会让像日本这样的国家不急于达成协议，Chao 补充道。</p>
</div><p>For now, the ruling is a &#34;marginal positive&#34; for sentiment as it minimises the most bearish outlooks on growth, said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo in Singapore.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，这一裁决对市场情绪是 “边际上的积极” 因素，因为它减少了对增长的最悲观预期，Saxo 新加坡首席投资策略师 Charu Chanana 表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Trump may still have scope to appeal or impose narrower, sector-specific tariffs, so policy uncertainty lingers,&#34; Chanana said. &#34;Businesses still don't have clarity, and the policy path remains fluid.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“特朗普仍然可能有机会上诉或施加更狭窄的行业特定关税，因此政策不确定性依然存在，” Chanana 说。“企业仍然没有明确的方向，政策路径仍然不稳定。”</p>
</div><p>Markets have swung wildly through Trump's on-and-off tariff changes. The S&amp;P 500 index .SPX is up 3.8% since they were announced, European stocks .STOXX are up 2.2%, while China's benchmark indexes are nearly flat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场在特朗普的反复关税变化中剧烈波动。自关税宣布以来，标准普尔 500 指数上涨了 3.8%，欧洲股票上涨了 2.2%，而中国基准指数几乎持平。</p>
</div><p>Gold XAU= is off record highs but still up more than 4% in these eight weeks, and the U.S. dollar index =USD is down 4%. Ten-year Treasury yields US10YT=RR have climbed 30 basis points to around 4.5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金价格虽然未能创下新高，但在这八周内仍上涨超过 4%，而美元指数下跌了 4%。十年期国债收益率上涨了 30 个基点，约为 4.5%。</p>
</div><p>News of the Court of International Trade's ruling sent stock benchmarks across Asia higher, led by South Korea's Kospi .KS11 and Japan's Nikkei .N222. Both are up more than 7% from &#34;Liberation Day&#34; when Trump's tariff chaos and concern about expanding U.S. deficits triggered an exit from dollar-based securities into other assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国际贸易法院的裁决消息推动了亚洲股市基准的上涨，以韩国的 Kospi 和日本的日经指数为首。两者自 “解放日” 以来均上涨超过 7%，当时特朗普的关税混乱和对美国赤字扩大的担忧促使投资者从以美元计价的证券转向其他资产。</p>
</div><p>For now, that pressure has abated, though caution must be exercised in case higher courts undo the latest ruling, said Sean Callow, senior analyst at ITC Markets in Sydney.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，这一压力有所缓解，但必须保持谨慎，以防更高法院推翻最新裁决，ITC Markets 悉尼的高级分析师 Sean Callow 表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The weight of money is being placed on the possibility that U.S. courts prevent the White House from self-imposed economic damage, brightening U.S. growth prospects and the U.S. dollar,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“资金的重心正在放在美国法院阻止白宫自我施加经济损害的可能性上，这使得美国的增长前景和美元变得更加光明，” 他说。</p>
</div><p>Volatility and policy reversals are what define this trading environment and investors are reacting in kind, said Ray Sharma-Ong, head of multi-asset investment solutions for Southeast Asia at Aberdeen Investments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>波动性和政策反转定义了这一交易环境，投资者也在相应地做出反应，Aberdeen Investments 东南亚多资产投资解决方案负责人 Ray Sharma-Ong 表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Trade and portfolio strategies have shifted toward shorter investment horizons,&#34; he said. &#34;Portfolios have leaned more toward tactical trades, with positions focused on key catalysts and events linked to Trump's policies.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“贸易和投资组合策略已转向更短的投资视野，” 他说。“投资组合更倾向于战术交易，重点关注与特朗普政策相关的关键催化剂和事件。”</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, this trade uncertainty is toxic to investment and economic growth, driving chief executives and policymakers to put off major decisions, said Kei Okamura, a portfolio manager for Neuberger Berman in Tokyo.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，这种贸易不确定性对投资和经济增长是有害的，促使首席执行官和政策制定者推迟重大决策，Neuberger Berman 东京的投资组合经理 Kei Okamura 表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;This stop and go is not helpful for businesses that need to make decisions that can take several years, even a decade, to implement,&#34; Okamura said. &#34;For central banks, this development just reinforces their wait-and-see stance.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这种停停走走对需要做出可能需要数年甚至十年才能实施的决策的企业没有帮助，” Okamura 说。“对于中央银行而言，这一发展只是加强了他们的观望态度。”</p>
</div><p>Trump's tariffs - where next? https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-TRUMP/TARIFFS-ADVISERS/byvrxabjkve/chart.png</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普的关税 - 下一步在哪里？ https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-TRUMP/TARIFFS-ADVISERS/byvrxabjkve/chart.png</p>
</div><p>IMF chart on US trade tariffs https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/znvnjoodbvl/Two.PNG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国际货币基金组织关于美国贸易关税的图表 https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/znvnjoodbvl/Two.PNG</p>
</div>

美国法院的关税裁决使市场短期内出现上涨，但长期则引发了焦虑