<p>斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒是一位亿万富翁投资者，他在自己的基金——杜克斯家族办公室管理资本。在过去的几年里，他在投资人工智能（AI）股票方面做出了一些引人注目的举动。也许最让人困惑的是，当其他人似乎都在买入时，他却出售了 <strong>英伟达</strong> 的股票。不过，公平地说，德鲁肯米勒后来对退出英伟达的头寸表示了一些遗憾。</p>
<p>虽然英伟达是受益于乐观 AI 叙事的最大赢家之一，但并不是唯一的成长股。然而，具有讽刺意味的是，德鲁肯米勒刚刚抛售了他基金在另一只炙手可热的 AI 股票中的全部股份。</p>
<p>德鲁肯米勒会后悔这个决定吗？我认为不会。继续阅读，了解杜克斯家族办公室刚刚退出的 AI 明星，以及我认为这是一个明智决定的原因。</p>
<h2>德鲁肯米勒现在抛售了哪只 AI 明星？</h2>
<p>根据其最新的 13F 文件，杜克斯家族办公室已经完全退出了 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR 0.28%）的头寸。在下面的表格中，我总结了德鲁肯米勒在过去一年中对 Palantir 股票的持有情况。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>类别</th>
<th>2024 年第一季度</th>
<th>2024 年第二季度</th>
<th>2024 年第三季度</th>
<th>2024 年第四季度</th>
<th>2025 年第一季度</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>股票</td>
<td>769,965</td>
<td>769,965</td>
<td>41,710</td>
<td>41,710</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>数据来源：13f.info。</p>
<p>根据上述数据，似乎杜克斯对 Palantir 的持仓在去年中期被削减。在过去六个月中，德鲁肯米勒的基金在 Palantir 股票中持有少量头寸——随着该公司在 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 和 <strong>纳斯达克 100</strong> 指数中表现出色，享受了创纪录的收益。这引发了一个问题：为什么现在要出售？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTk1NDAvZ2V0dHktaW52ZXN0aW5nLXRpbWUtdG8tc2VsbC0xLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTk1NDAvZ2V0dHktaW52ZXN0aW5nLXRpbWUtdG8tc2VsbC0xLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>德鲁肯米勒为什么会抛售 Palantir 股票？</h2>
<p>自 2020 年上市以来，Palantir 股票的涨幅超过了 1000%。在如此短的时间内，这是一个异常高的回报。然而，从这个角度看 Palantir 的抛物线式上涨有些误导。我之所以这样说，是因为股票的大部分涨幅实际上发生在过去 18 个月。当你从这个角度看时，股票还能继续上涨的空间就显得更加可疑。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/28cd9c7a1ec2176b293ffaa266912c7d.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/28cd9c7a1ec2176b293ffaa266912c7d.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR PS 比率数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>在上面的图表中，我将 Palantir 的估值与一组高增长软件股票进行了基于市销率（P/S）的基准比较。Palantir 不仅是这里显而易见的异常值，而且看看它的估值倍数在过去一年中相对于同行的扩张程度。</p>
<p>截至 5 月 23 日收盘，Palantir 的市值为 2910 亿美元——远高于 <strong>Salesforce</strong>（我预测会发生这种情况），尽管它是一家规模更小、分散程度更低、盈利能力更差的公司。</p>
<p>在我看来，德鲁肯米勒不会再对 Palantir 的任何动能进行押注。我认为他决定锁定收益，并将资本重新部署到更合适估值的企业中。</p>
<h2>你现在应该出售 Palantir 股票吗？</h2>
<p>投资的一个秘密是，实际上没有一个完美的时机来出售股票。我想指出的是，Palantir 目前的市销率倍数超过了 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 和 <strong>思科</strong> 在互联网泡沫期间的峰值水平，并且远高于英伟达在 AI 革命期间的水平。</p>
<p>我提到这一点是因为，尽管意识到这一点可能令人感到沉重，但即使是最热门的成长股也会不时经历回调。随着 Palantir 股票持续飙升，我怀疑对其季度财报的预期会随之上升。这带来了风险，因为 Palantir 可能会发布一份巨大的财报，但最终未能达到不合理的高预期——因此，股票可能会瞬间暴跌。</p>
<p>虽然我仍然看好长期前景，但我不会责怪现在削减 Palantir 头寸的投资者。一种谨慎的做法可能是出售足够的股份以至少收回你的初始投资。另一种策略可能是在你的头寸上涨 15% 或更多时收集一些收益（基本上是标准普尔 500 长期平均年回报的两倍）。</p>

PLTR

<p>亿万富翁投资者斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒已出售其在 Palantir Technologies 的全部股份，此前他已出售了 Nvidia 的股票。尽管 Palantir 自 2020 年上市以来增长超过 1000%，但对其相较于同行的高估值的担忧促使了这一决定。分析师建议，尽管 Palantir 仍然表现强劲，但其市销率显著偏高，增加了回调的风险。投资者被建议考虑削减在 Palantir 的持仓，特别是如果他们已经实现了收益</p>

<p>Stanley Druckenmiller is a billionaire investor who manages capital at his fund, the Duquesne Family Office. Over the past few years, he has made some eyebrow-raising moves related to investing in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks. Perhaps the biggest head-scratcher was his selling <strong>Nvidia</strong> stock when everyone else seemed to be buying. In fairness, though, Druckenmiller has since expressed some regret about exiting his Nvidia position.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒是一位亿万富翁投资者，他在自己的基金——杜克斯家族办公室管理资本。在过去的几年里，他在投资人工智能（AI）股票方面做出了一些引人注目的举动。也许最让人困惑的是，当其他人似乎都在买入时，他却出售了 <strong>英伟达</strong> 的股票。不过，公平地说，德鲁肯米勒后来对退出英伟达的头寸表示了一些遗憾。</p>
</div><p>While Nvidia has been one of the largest beneficiaries of a bullish AI narrative, it's far from the only growth stock out there. Ironically, however, Druckenmiller just dumped his fund's entire stake in yet another scorching hot AI stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然英伟达是受益于乐观 AI 叙事的最大赢家之一，但并不是唯一的成长股。然而，具有讽刺意味的是，德鲁肯米勒刚刚抛售了他基金在另一只炙手可热的 AI 股票中的全部股份。</p>
</div><p>Will Druckenmiller come to regret this decision, too? I don't think so. Read on to find out which AI darling the Duquesne Family Office just exited, and learn why I think this was a savvy decision.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德鲁肯米勒会后悔这个决定吗？我认为不会。继续阅读，了解杜克斯家族办公室刚刚退出的 AI 明星，以及我认为这是一个明智决定的原因。</p>
</div><h2>Which AI darling did Druckenmiller dump now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>德鲁肯米勒现在抛售了哪只 AI 明星？</h2>
</div><p>According to its most recent 13F filing, the Duquesne Family Office has completely exited its position in <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR 0.28%). In the table below, I've summarized Druckenmiller's exposure to Palantir stock over the last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据其最新的 13F 文件，杜克斯家族办公室已经完全退出了 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR 0.28%）的头寸。在下面的表格中，我总结了德鲁肯米勒在过去一年中对 Palantir 股票的持有情况。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Category</th>
<th>Q1 2024</th>
<th>Q2 2024</th>
<th>Q3 2024</th>
<th>Q4 2024</th>
<th>Q1 2025</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Shares</td>
<td>769,965</td>
<td>769,965</td>
<td>41,710</td>
<td>41,710</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>类别</th>
<th>2024 年第一季度</th>
<th>2024 年第二季度</th>
<th>2024 年第三季度</th>
<th>2024 年第四季度</th>
<th>2025 年第一季度</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>股票</td>
<td>769,965</td>
<td>769,965</td>
<td>41,710</td>
<td>41,710</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data source: 13f.info.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：13f.info。</p>
</div><p>Per the data above, it appears that the majority of Duquesne's exposure to Palantir was trimmed in the middle of last year. Over the last six months, Druckenmiller's fund held a small position in Palantir stock -- enjoying record gains as the company remained one of the best-performing stocks across the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> and <strong>Nasdaq-100</strong> indices. It begs the question: Why sell now?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据上述数据，似乎杜克斯对 Palantir 的持仓在去年中期被削减。在过去六个月中，德鲁肯米勒的基金在 Palantir 股票中持有少量头寸——随着该公司在 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 和 <strong>纳斯达克 100</strong> 指数中表现出色，享受了创纪录的收益。这引发了一个问题：为什么现在要出售？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTk1NDAvZ2V0dHktaW52ZXN0aW5nLXRpbWUtdG8tc2VsbC0xLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F819540%2Fgetty-investing-time-to-sell-1.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Why might Druckenmiller have dumped Palantir stock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>德鲁肯米勒为什么会抛售 Palantir 股票？</h2>
</div><p>Since going public in 2020, Palantir stock has gained well over 1,000%. That's an unusually high return in this short a time duration. However, looking at Palantir's parabolic rise through this lens is a bit misleading. The reason I say that is because the majority of gains in the stock have actually occurred over the last 18 months. When you look at it that way, it becomes even more questionable just how much further the stock can run right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2020 年上市以来，Palantir 股票的涨幅超过了 1000%。在如此短的时间内，这是一个异常高的回报。然而，从这个角度看 Palantir 的抛物线式上涨有些误导。我之所以这样说，是因为股票的大部分涨幅实际上发生在过去 18 个月。当你从这个角度看时，股票还能继续上涨的空间就显得更加可疑。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/28cd9c7a1ec2176b293ffaa266912c7d.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/28cd9c7a1ec2176b293ffaa266912c7d.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR PS Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PLTR PS 比率数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>In the graph above, I've benchmarked Palantir's valuation against a peer set of high-growth software stocks on a price-to-sales (P/S) basis. Not only is Palantir the obvious outlier here, but just look at how much expansion its valuation multiples have experienced over the last year relative to its peers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在上面的图表中，我将 Palantir 的估值与一组高增长软件股票进行了基于市销率（P/S）的基准比较。Palantir 不仅是这里显而易见的异常值，而且看看它的估值倍数在过去一年中相对于同行的扩张程度。</p>
</div><p>As of the closing bell on May 23, Palantir boasted a market capitalization of $291 billion -- considerably more than <strong>Salesforce</strong> (which I predicted would happen), despite being a much smaller, less diversified, and less profitable business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 5 月 23 日收盘，Palantir 的市值为 2910 亿美元——远高于 <strong>Salesforce</strong>（我预测会发生这种情况），尽管它是一家规模更小、分散程度更低、盈利能力更差的公司。</p>
</div><p>In my eyes, Druckenmiller isn't going to roll the dice on any more momentum fueling Palantir. I think he decided to take his gains and redeploy capital into more appropriately valued businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，德鲁肯米勒不会再对 Palantir 的任何动能进行押注。我认为他决定锁定收益，并将资本重新部署到更合适估值的企业中。</p>
</div><h2>Should you sell Palantir stock right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你现在应该出售 Palantir 股票吗？</h2>
</div><p>One of the secrets to investing is that there is never <em>really</em> a perfect time to sell a stock. What I would point out about Palantir's valuation right now is that its P/S multiple is more than double the levels that <strong>Amazon</strong> and <strong>Cisco</strong> peaked at during the dot-com bubble, and considerably higher than where Nvidia reached throughout the AI revolution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资的一个秘密是，实际上没有一个完美的时机来出售股票。我想指出的是，Palantir 目前的市销率倍数超过了 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 和 <strong>思科</strong> 在互联网泡沫期间的峰值水平，并且远高于英伟达在 AI 革命期间的水平。</p>
</div><p>I bring this up because as sobering as it may be to realize, even the hottest growth stocks experience pullbacks from time to time. As Palantir stock continues to rocket higher, I suspect expectations will rise around its quarterly earnings results. This presents a risk in that Palantir could deliver a monster earnings report, but ultimately fail to live up to unjustifiably lofty expectations -- hence, the stock could drop off a cliff instantly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我提到这一点是因为，尽管意识到这一点可能令人感到沉重，但即使是最热门的成长股也会不时经历回调。随着 Palantir 股票持续飙升，我怀疑对其季度财报的预期会随之上升。这带来了风险，因为 Palantir 可能会发布一份巨大的财报，但最终未能达到不合理的高预期——因此，股票可能会瞬间暴跌。</p>
</div><p>While I remain a long-term bull, I wouldn't blame investors who trim their Palantir positions right now. One prudent approach could be to sell enough to at least recoup your initial investment. Another strategy could be to collect some gains if you're up by 15% or more on your position (essentially double the long-run average annual return of the S&amp;P 500).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然我仍然看好长期前景，但我不会责怪现在削减 Palantir 头寸的投资者。一种谨慎的做法可能是出售足够的股份以至少收回你的初始投资。另一种策略可能是在你的头寸上涨 15% 或更多时收集一些收益（基本上是标准普尔 500 长期平均年回报的两倍）。</p>
</div>

After Selling Nvidia, Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller Unloaded Another One of Wall Street's Hottest Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks. Is It Time For You to Do the Same?

- Stanley Druckenmiller 完全退出 Palantir 股票，反映其对高估值的担忧。  
- Palantir 自上市以来涨幅超过 1000%，但当前估值显著高于同行。  
- 投资者需谨慎，考虑在高期望下可能面临的回调风险。  

在出售 Nvidia 之后，亿万富翁 Stanley Druckenmiller 又抛售了华尔街另一只最热门的人工智能（AI）股票。你是否也应该这样做？