<p>欧洲晨间快讯 - 法庭的曲折增加了关税风险</p><p>凯文·巴克兰对欧洲和全球市场的前景进行展望</p><p>随着我们进入这一周戏剧性法庭惊喜的尾声，特朗普总统的关税政策似乎更多是反复无常，最初让投资者欢呼，但随后又让他们面临更多的不确定性。</p><p>在亚洲早盘交易中，日本的日经指数的下跌尤为显眼。东京的股票受到避险日元需求回升的额外打击，这削弱了该指数重磅出口商的海外收入价值。</p><p>香港的恒生指数的下跌同样引人注目，两个基准指数基本上放弃了前一天的所有可观涨幅。</p><p>当鲜为人知的美国国际贸易法院在周三意外阻止特朗普大部分激进关税时，理由是他超越了自己的权力，似乎有迹象表明司法机构可能对他常常不稳定的政策制定提供制衡。</p><p>但一天后，这些关税又回来了，因上诉法院在考虑案件时重新实施。这并不意味着最终裁决的前兆，但特朗普的团队已经表示，他们有其他途径来维持关税的有效性。</p><p>对于企业、消费者和中央银行来说，这只是一个让他们继续观望的理由，推迟已经延迟的招聘、支出或降息决策。</p><p>然而，对于美国的贸易伙伴，特朗普政府向我们保证，善意谈判仍在继续。财政部长斯科特·贝森特特别提到他今天将在华盛顿与日本代表团进行的高级别会谈。</p><p>尽管特朗普持乐观态度，但达成协议却很困难——与英国的广泛协议迄今为止是唯一的一个。贝森特承认与中国的谈判 “有些停滞”，并补充说可能需要特朗普和中国国家主席习近平的直接参与。</p><p>围绕关税的法庭戏剧恰逢关税收入开始上升。派博·桑德勒的唐纳德·施奈德在社交媒体平台 X 上估计，关税收入的年化速度为 2550 亿美元，高于约 850 亿美元的常态。</p><p>这将是个好消息，因为特朗普的 “宏伟美丽法案” 中的大规模减税和支出措施即将提交参议院，已经引发了对美国财政可持续性的担忧。</p><p>该法案的一位批评者是埃隆·马斯克，迹象表明他在 DOGE 的工作看似安静的退出可能带来一些不快。</p><p>但特朗普随后宣布将在白宫举行盛大的告别新闻发布会，补充说，尽管这将是特斯拉和 SpaceX 首席执行官在政府薪酬上的最后一天，“他将永远与我们同在”。</p><p>在周四白宫的私人会议后，特朗普与美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔之间的气氛似乎也不再那么沉重。尽管总统重申他认为中央银行不降息是个错误，但社交媒体上没有任何人身攻击的言论，可能让上个月因特朗普公开威胁解雇美联储主席而动荡的市场松了一口气。</p><p>可能影响周五市场的关键发展：</p><p>-德国消费者通胀数据（5 月）</p><p>-意大利银行行长帕内塔在罗马发言</p><p>-美联储发言人包括旧金山联邦储备银行行长达利、达拉斯联邦储备银行行长洛根、亚特兰大联邦储备银行行长博斯蒂克和芝加哥联邦储备银行行长古尔斯比</p>

<p>特朗普总统的关税面临不确定性，因为美国法院最初阻止了这些关税，但上诉法院又恢复了它们。这种反复无常增加了市场的波动性，企业也因此推迟了决策。尽管谈判仍在进行中，但重大的贸易协议依然难以达成。关税收入预计将显著上升，这引发了对美国财政可持续性的担忧。关键经济指标和美联储的讲话预计将进一步影响市场</p>

<p>MORNING BID EUROPE-Courtroom twists add to tariff risks</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲晨间快讯 - 法庭的曲折增加了关税风险</p>
</div><p>A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>凯文·巴克兰对欧洲和全球市场的前景进行展望</p>
</div><p>President Donald Trump's tariffs are more on-again than off-again as we head into the end of a dramatic week of courtroom surprises, which initially had investors cheering but then left them with little more than an additional source of uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着我们进入这一周戏剧性法庭惊喜的尾声，特朗普总统的关税政策似乎更多是反复无常，最初让投资者欢呼，但随后又让他们面临更多的不确定性。</p>
</div><p>Looking around Asia in early trading, losses to Japan's Nikkei stand out. Stocks in Tokyo were hit by an additional whammy from renewed demand for the safe-haven yen, which undercuts the value of overseas revenues for the index's heavyweight exporters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在亚洲早盘交易中，日本的日经指数的下跌尤为显眼。东京的股票受到避险日元需求回升的额外打击，这削弱了该指数重磅出口商的海外收入价值。</p>
</div><p>The drop in Hong Kong's Hang Seng was also eye-catching, with both benchmarks essentially giving up all of the sizeable gains of the day before.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>香港的恒生指数的下跌同样引人注目，两个基准指数基本上放弃了前一天的所有可观涨幅。</p>
</div><p>When the little-known United States Court of International Trade on Wednesday unexpectedly blocked the bulk of Trump's aggressive levies, on the grounds that he had overstepped his authority, there was some inkling that the judiciary could provide a check on his often erratic policymaking.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当鲜为人知的美国国际贸易法院在周三意外阻止特朗普大部分激进关税时，理由是他超越了自己的权力，似乎有迹象表明司法机构可能对他常常不稳定的政策制定提供制衡。</p>
</div><p>But a day later those tariffs were back, reinstated by an appeals court while it considers the case. That is by no means a foreshadowing of its eventual ruling, but Trump's team is already saying it has other avenues to keep the tariffs in effect.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但一天后，这些关税又回来了，因上诉法院在考虑案件时重新实施。这并不意味着最终裁决的前兆，但特朗普的团队已经表示，他们有其他途径来维持关税的有效性。</p>
</div><p>For businesses, consumers and central banks, it's just one more reason to sit on their hands, pushing out already delayed decisions on hiring, spending or cutting rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于企业、消费者和中央银行来说，这只是一个让他们继续观望的理由，推迟已经延迟的招聘、支出或降息决策。</p>
</div><p>For U.S. trade partners, though, the Trump administration assures us that good-faith negotiations continue undeterred. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pointed specifically to high-level talks he will have with a Japanese delegation in Washington later today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，对于美国的贸易伙伴，特朗普政府向我们保证，善意谈判仍在继续。财政部长斯科特·贝森特特别提到他今天将在华盛顿与日本代表团进行的高级别会谈。</p>
</div><p>Despite Trump's optimism, deals have been hard to come by - a broad agreement with Britain is the only one so far. And Bessent acknowledged talks with China are &#34;a bit stalled&#34;, adding they may require the direct involvement of Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管特朗普持乐观态度，但达成协议却很困难——与英国的广泛协议迄今为止是唯一的一个。贝森特承认与中国的谈判 “有些停滞”，并补充说可能需要特朗普和中国国家主席习近平的直接参与。</p>
</div><p>The courtroom drama around tariffs came just as tariff revenues were starting to pick up. Donald Schneider at Piper Sandler on social media platform X this week estimated them at an annualised pace of $255 billion, up from a norm of about $85 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>围绕关税的法庭戏剧恰逢关税收入开始上升。派博·桑德勒的唐纳德·施奈德在社交媒体平台 X 上估计，关税收入的年化速度为 2550 亿美元，高于约 850 亿美元的常态。</p>
</div><p>That would be welcome news as the sweeping tax cuts and spending measures in Trump's &#34;big, beautiful bill&#34;, which is about to go to the Senate, have been fanning worries about U.S. fiscal sustainability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这将是个好消息，因为特朗普的 “宏伟美丽法案” 中的大规模减税和支出措施即将提交参议院，已经引发了对美国财政可持续性的担忧。</p>
</div><p>One critic of the bill has been Elon Musk, and there were signs that what looked to be a quiet exit from his work at DOGE might carry some bad blood.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该法案的一位批评者是埃隆·马斯克，迹象表明他在 DOGE 的工作看似安静的退出可能带来一些不快。</p>
</div><p>But Trump has since announced a big sending off with a joint press conference at the Oval Office for later today, adding that although it'll be the Tesla and SpaceX CEO's last day on the government payroll, &#34;he will always be with us&#34;.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但特朗普随后宣布将在白宫举行盛大的告别新闻发布会，补充说，尽管这将是特斯拉和 SpaceX 首席执行官在政府薪酬上的最后一天，“他将永远与我们同在”。</p>
</div><p>The air also seems less heavy between Trump and Fed Chair Jay Powell following a private meeting in the Oval Office on Thursday. While the president reiterated his feeling that the central bank is making a mistake by not lowering rates, the lack of any name-calling in social media posts afterwards may have come as a relief to markets that were roiled last month by Trump's public threats to fire the Fed chief.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在周四白宫的私人会议后，特朗普与美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔之间的气氛似乎也不再那么沉重。尽管总统重申他认为中央银行不降息是个错误，但社交媒体上没有任何人身攻击的言论，可能让上个月因特朗普公开威胁解雇美联储主席而动荡的市场松了一口气。</p>
</div><p>Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可能影响周五市场的关键发展：</p>
</div><p>-Germany consumer inflation data (May)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-德国消费者通胀数据（5 月）</p>
</div><p>-Bank of Italy Governor Panetta speaks in Rome</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-意大利银行行长帕内塔在罗马发言</p>
</div><p>-Fed speakers include San Francisco Fed President Daly, Dallas Fed President Logan, Atlanta Fed President Bostic and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-美联储发言人包括旧金山联邦储备银行行长达利、达拉斯联邦储备银行行长洛根、亚特兰大联邦储备银行行长博斯蒂克和芝加哥联邦储备银行行长古尔斯比</p>
</div><p>Trying to keep up with the latest tariff news?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>想跟上最新的关税新闻吗？</p>
</div><p>Our new daily news digest offers a rundown of the top market-moving headlines impacting global trade. Sign up for Tariff Watch here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们的新每日新闻摘要提供了影响全球贸易的市场动态头条的概述。请在此注册关税观察 here。</p>
</div><p>Projected U.S. tariff revenues 2025-2034 https://reut.rs/4koDI8k</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计美国关税收入 2025-2034 https://reut.rs/4koDI8k</p>
</div><p>(By Kevin Buckland; Editing by Edmund Klamann)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（凯文·巴克兰撰写；埃德蒙·克拉曼编辑）</p>
</div>

MORNING BID EUROPE-Courtroom twists add to tariff risks

- 特朗普的关税政策反复无常，增加了市场的不确定性。  
- 日本和香港股市因避险需求下跌，影响出口企业收益。  
- 美国关税收入预计年化达 2550 亿美元，财政可持续性引发担忧。  

欧洲早间竞标——法庭上的曲折增加了关税风险