<p><strong>加里·布莱克</strong>，Future Fund LLC 的董事总经理和知名市场分析师，对 <strong>特斯拉公司</strong> 的 TSLA 高前瞻市盈率（P/E）表示担忧，质疑其当前估值的可持续性。</p>
<p><strong>发生了什么</strong>：在周六的 X 平台上，布莱克详细指出，特斯拉的前瞻市盈率高达惊人的 180 倍。他提到，在股票市场历史上，没有任何一家市值达到万亿美元的公司曾以如此高的前瞻市盈率交易。</p>
<p>布莱克认为，支撑如此高市盈率所需的长期增长率将使特斯拉的市值超过 <strong>苹果公司</strong> AAPL 和 <strong>微软公司</strong> MSFT，他认为这 “疯狂”。</p>
<p>“支撑 180 倍市盈率所需的长期增长率将导致 TSLA 的市值超过 $AAPL 和 $MSFT，这似乎很疯狂，因为这两家公司都有巨大的市场总量、不可动摇的品牌和高度可预测的未来现金流，” 他在帖子中说道。</p>
<p>另请阅读：加里·布莱克表示，特斯拉在六月推出的机器人出租车对优步构成的风险极小：‘将提供低成本……’</p>
<p>布莱克批评那些通过声称 2025 年的市盈率无关紧要来驳斥他观点的特斯拉支持者。他强调，股票的估值是所有未来现金流的现值，按风险调整后的资本成本折现，加上净现金。根据布莱克的说法，忽视市盈率等同于在做出投资决策时忽视估值。</p>
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<p>“那些假装理解金融的 TSLA 支持者通过说 2025 年的市盈率无关紧要来驳斥我关于 TSLA 估值看起来被高估的观点。投资的第一条规则是低买高卖。第二条规则是价格是你支付的，价值是你获得的。争论市盈率对投资决策无关紧要告诉我，争论的人没有估值纪律，只是在购买概念，而不是基于价值与价格的评估，” 布莱克继续说道。</p>
<p><strong>为什么这很重要</strong>：布莱克的评论正值特斯拉股票因其高估值而受到审查之际。尽管该公司的增长令人印象深刻，但一些投资者和分析师对其当前股价是否准确反映未来盈利潜力表示担忧。</p>
<p>布莱克的论点进一步加剧了这一持续的辩论，强调了在评估公司价值时传统估值指标如市盈率的重要性。</p>
<p>虽然布莱克澄清他并不预见会做空特斯拉的情况，但他的评论强调了投资者在做出投资决策之前需要谨慎并进行彻底的估值评估。</p>
<ul>
<li>埃隆·马斯克的长期副手退出 DOGE，特斯拉首席执行官辞去政府工作：机构员工感到惊讶</li>
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<p>图片来源：Shutterstock/bluestork</p>

特斯拉

<p>Future Fund LLC 的董事总经理 Gary Black 对特斯拉高达 180 倍的前瞻市盈率表示担忧，认为这样的估值需要一个不可持续的长期增长率，可能超过苹果和微软。他批评特斯拉的支持者忽视市盈率在投资决策中的相关性，强调传统估值指标的重要性。Black 的评论突显了关于特斯拉股价及其未来盈利潜力的持续辩论，呼吁投资者在投资前进行全面评估</p>

<p><strong>Gary Black</strong>, Future Fund LLC’s managing director and a prominent market analyst, has expressed concerns about <strong>Tesla Inc</strong>.’s TSLA high forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, questioning the sustainability of its current valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>加里·布莱克</strong>，Future Fund LLC 的董事总经理和知名市场分析师，对 <strong>特斯拉公司</strong> 的 TSLA 高前瞻市盈率（P/E）表示担忧，质疑其当前估值的可持续性。</p>
</div><p><strong>What Happened</strong>: In a detailed thread on X on Saturday, Black pointed out that Tesla’s forward P/E ratio stands at a staggering 180x. He noted that no trillion-dollar market cap company in stock market history has traded at such a high forward P/E ratio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>发生了什么</strong>：在周六的 X 平台上，布莱克详细指出，特斯拉的前瞻市盈率高达惊人的 180 倍。他提到，在股票市场历史上，没有任何一家市值达到万亿美元的公司曾以如此高的前瞻市盈率交易。</p>
</div><p>Black argued that the long-term growth rate required to justify such a P/E would make Tesla’s market cap larger than <strong>Apple Inc.</strong> AAPL and <strong>Microsoft Corp.</strong> MSFT, which he deemed “insane.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布莱克认为，支撑如此高市盈率所需的长期增长率将使特斯拉的市值超过 <strong>苹果公司</strong> AAPL 和 <strong>微软公司</strong> MSFT，他认为这 “疯狂”。</p>
</div><p>“The long-term growth rate needed to justify a 180x P/E would cause TSLA market cap to be bigger than $AAPL and $MSFT, which seems insane since both have huge TAMs, unassailable brands, and highly predictable future cash flow streams,” he said in the post.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“支撑 180 倍市盈率所需的长期增长率将导致 TSLA 的市值超过 $AAPL 和 $MSFT，这似乎很疯狂，因为这两家公司都有巨大的市场总量、不可动摇的品牌和高度可预测的未来现金流，” 他在帖子中说道。</p>
</div><p>Also Read: Gary Black Says Tesla’s Robotaxi Launch In June Poses Minimal Risk To Uber: ‘Will Offer Low-Cost…’</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另请阅读：加里·布莱克表示，特斯拉在六月推出的机器人出租车对优步构成的风险极小：‘将提供低成本……’</p>
</div><p>Black criticized Tesla bulls who dismiss his argument by claiming that the 2025 P/E is irrelevant. He emphasized that a stock’s valuation is the present value of all future cash flows, discounted back at a risk-adjusted cost of capital, plus net cash. To disregard P/E, according to Black, is equivalent to ignoring valuation when making an investment decision.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布莱克批评那些通过声称 2025 年的市盈率无关紧要来驳斥他观点的特斯拉支持者。他强调，股票的估值是所有未来现金流的现值，按风险调整后的资本成本折现，加上净现金。根据布莱克的说法，忽视市盈率等同于在做出投资决策时忽视估值。</p>
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</div><p>“TSLA bulls who pretend they understand finance dismiss my argument that TSLA's valuation looks stretched by saying the 2025 P/E is irrelevant. Rule #1 in investing is buy low, sell high. Rule #2 is price is what you pay, value is what you get. Arguing that P/E doesn't matter to an investment decision tells me the person doing the arguing has no valuation discipline and is just buying concepts, rather than on some assessment of value vs price,” Black continued.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“那些假装理解金融的 TSLA 支持者通过说 2025 年的市盈率无关紧要来驳斥我关于 TSLA 估值看起来被高估的观点。投资的第一条规则是低买高卖。第二条规则是价格是你支付的，价值是你获得的。争论市盈率对投资决策无关紧要告诉我，争论的人没有估值纪律，只是在购买概念，而不是基于价值与价格的评估，” 布莱克继续说道。</p>
</div><p><strong>Why It Matters</strong>: Black’s comments come at a time when Tesla’s stock has been under scrutiny due to its high valuation. Despite the company’s impressive growth, some investors and analysts have raised concerns about whether its current stock price accurately reflects its future earnings potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>为什么这很重要</strong>：布莱克的评论正值特斯拉股票因其高估值而受到审查之际。尽管该公司的增长令人印象深刻，但一些投资者和分析师对其当前股价是否准确反映未来盈利潜力表示担忧。</p>
</div><p>Black’s argument adds to this ongoing debate, highlighting the importance of traditional valuation metrics like P/E in assessing a company’s worth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布莱克的论点进一步加剧了这一持续的辩论，强调了在评估公司价值时传统估值指标如市盈率的重要性。</p>
</div><p>While Black clarified that he doesn’t foresee a situation where he would short Tesla, his comments underscore the need for investors to exercise caution and conduct thorough valuation assessments before making investment decisions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然布莱克澄清他并不预见会做空特斯拉的情况，但他的评论强调了投资者在做出投资决策之前需要谨慎并进行彻底的估值评估。</p>
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<li>Elon Musk's Long-Time Lieutenant Exits DOGE As Tesla CEO Steps Down From Government Work: Staffers At Agency Surprised</li>
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<li>埃隆·马斯克的长期副手退出 DOGE，特斯拉首席执行官辞去政府工作：机构员工感到惊讶</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Image: Shutterstock/bluestork</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Shutterstock/bluestork</p>
</div>

Gary Black Questions Tesla's Sky-High Forward P/E Ratio: 'Long-Term Growth Rate Needed To Justify a 180X P/E Would Cause Tsla Market Cap To Be Bigger'

- Gary Black 指出特斯拉的前瞻市盈率高达 180 倍，质疑其估值的可持续性。  
- 他认为，维持如此高的市盈率需要特斯拉的市值超过苹果和微软，这显得 “疯狂”。  
- Black 强调，忽视市盈率等传统估值指标可能导致投资决策失误。  

Gary Black 质疑特斯拉的超高远期市盈率：‘要证明 180 倍市盈率合理，长期增长率需要使特斯拉的市值更大’