<p>十多年来，<strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL 0.76%）一直是全球市值最大的公司。尽管截至目前它的市值仍为 3 万亿美元，但在过去几年中，随着云计算和人工智能（AI）计算芯片的迅猛发展，它已被 <strong>微软</strong> 和 <strong>英伟达</strong> 超越。</p>
<p>这是市场历史上最长的统治之一，但苹果作为市值领导者的地位正式宣告结束。它会东山再起，重新夺回第一的位置吗？至少在接下来的几年里，投资者的答案相当明确。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTk4OTcvaXBob25lLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTk4OTcvaXBob25lLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>增长速度低于同行</h2>
<p>为了将苹果与其他市值万亿美元的同行进行比较，首先要关注增长。微软在过去三年中收入增长了 36%。英伟达的收入增长超过 300%。而苹果呢？在过去三年中，其收入仅增长了 3.3%，几乎没有增长，远远落后于通货膨胀率。每年购买 iPhone 的消费者越来越少，而像 Vision Pro 这样的新产品则遭遇了失败。</p>
<p>看起来这种情况在未来几年也将持续。微软和英伟达在人工智能及其对云计算和半导体产品需求的影响中受益匪浅，而这两家公司都是该领域的领导者。苹果未能在这些快速增长的领域中占据任何份额，这也是为什么这些其他的 “七大奇迹” 股票在市值上超越了它。如果这些趋势持续下去，其他云计算和 AI 公司如 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 和 <strong>谷歌</strong> 可能会超过苹果，使其股票在市值排名中进一步下滑。</p>
<h2>估值是否更便宜？</h2>
<p>增长并不是股票的全部，投资者还需要考虑估值以及苹果、微软和英伟达当前的盈利倍数。一方面，看看市盈率（P/E），苹果的市盈率为 31，远低于微软的 35 和英伟达的 46。这使得苹果的股票在一定程度上显得更便宜，并可能帮助其在市值竞争中重新夺回一些地盘。</p>
<p>然而，很可能这两家竞争对手由于每股收益（EPS）增长更快，应该以更高的盈利倍数进行交易。与收入类似，微软和英伟达的每股收益增长速度远快于苹果，而苹果的每股收益在过去几年几乎没有变化。预计这种情况将在未来五年内继续。</p>
<p>苹果在未来几年可能会看到其每股收益下降。其高利润的服务和软件收入正受到反垄断诉讼的攻击。App Store 被裁定为垄断，苹果现在被迫允许第三方支付处理器在移动应用中使用。由于针对谷歌的当前诉讼，其与谷歌的巨额默认搜索引擎地位支付也面临被取消的风险。这两项发展可能会在未来几年内削弱苹果的盈利能力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7c70f8cada09bd686ad8a474ef9705c5.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7c70f8cada09bd686ad8a474ef9705c5.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 每股收益稀释（TTM）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<h2>为什么苹果不会重新夺回全球最大公司的地位</h2>
<p>我认为苹果不太可能重新夺回市值排行榜的王座。它几乎没有增长途径来推动收入增长，而像英伟达这样的公司在最新的季度业绩中实现了 69% 的年收入增长。这种对比意味着在市值方面，苹果将在未来几年进一步落后于英伟达和微软。</p>
<p>目前，苹果是一只风险较大的股票。它增长缓慢，市盈率较高，并且面临可能影响未来盈利能力的风险。暂时避免购买这只股票。</p>

苹果

<p>苹果曾是市值最大的公司，如今已被微软和英伟达超越，过去三年的收入增长停滞在 3.3%。尽管其市盈率为 31，低于竞争对手，但缺乏增长途径以及来自反垄断诉讼的潜在盈利风险表明，苹果不太可能重新夺回其领先地位。分析师建议投资者避免购买苹果股票，因为其增长缓慢且估值偏高，面临着人工智能和云计算领域日益激烈的竞争</p>

<p>For more than a decade, <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.76%) was the largest company in the world by market capitalization. And while it still has a market cap of $3 trillion as of this writing, it has been surpassed by <strong>Microsoft</strong> and <strong>Nvidia</strong> in the last few years as cloud computing and artificial intelligence (AI) computer chips take the market by storm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>十多年来，<strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL 0.76%）一直是全球市值最大的公司。尽管截至目前它的市值仍为 3 万亿美元，但在过去几年中，随着云计算和人工智能（AI）计算芯片的迅猛发展，它已被 <strong>微软</strong> 和 <strong>英伟达</strong> 超越。</p>
</div><p>It was one of the longest reigns in market history, but Apple's status as top market cap leader has officially come to an end. Will it make a comeback and reclaim its No. 1 spot? In the next few years, at least, the answer is quite clear for investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是市场历史上最长的统治之一，但苹果作为市值领导者的地位正式宣告结束。它会东山再起，重新夺回第一的位置吗？至少在接下来的几年里，投资者的答案相当明确。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTk4OTcvaXBob25lLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F819897%2Fiphone.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Slower growth than its peers</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>增长速度低于同行</h2>
</div><p>In order to compare Apple with other trillion-dollar market cap peers, the first thing to do is look at growth. Microsoft has grown its revenue by 36% over the last three years. Nvidia has grown its revenue by over 300%. Apple? Its revenue is only up 3.3% in the last three years, not growing much at all and greatly trailing the rate of inflation. Fewer consumers are buying iPhones every year while new products like the Vision Pro flopped.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了将苹果与其他市值万亿美元的同行进行比较，首先要关注增长。微软在过去三年中收入增长了 36%。英伟达的收入增长超过 300%。而苹果呢？在过去三年中，其收入仅增长了 3.3%，几乎没有增长，远远落后于通货膨胀率。每年购买 iPhone 的消费者越来越少，而像 Vision Pro 这样的新产品则遭遇了失败。</p>
</div><p>It looks like this will continue over the next few years as well. Microsoft and Nvidia are benefiting immensely from AI and its impact on demand for cloud computing and semiconductor products, where both companies are leaders. Apple has failed to capture any share of these rapidly growing sectors, which is why these other &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; stocks are charging ahead of it in market capitalization. If these trends hold, the other cloud and AI players such as <strong>Amazon</strong> and <strong>Alphabet</strong> may pass Apple and send the stock further down the market cap rankings list.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看起来这种情况在未来几年也将持续。微软和英伟达在人工智能及其对云计算和半导体产品需求的影响中受益匪浅，而这两家公司都是该领域的领导者。苹果未能在这些快速增长的领域中占据任何份额，这也是为什么这些其他的 “七大奇迹” 股票在市值上超越了它。如果这些趋势持续下去，其他云计算和 AI 公司如 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 和 <strong>谷歌</strong> 可能会超过苹果，使其股票在市值排名中进一步下滑。</p>
</div><h2>Is the valuation cheaper?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>估值是否更便宜？</h2>
</div><p>Growth is not the entire picture with a stock. investors also need to consider valuation and the current earnings multiples of Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. On the one hand, look at the trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio and see that Apple's P/E of 31 is well below Microsoft's P/E of 35 and Nvidia's P/E of 46. This would make Apple stock cheaper in a vacuum and could help it regain some ground in the market cap race.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>增长并不是股票的全部，投资者还需要考虑估值以及苹果、微软和英伟达当前的盈利倍数。一方面，看看市盈率（P/E），苹果的市盈率为 31，远低于微软的 35 和英伟达的 46。这使得苹果的股票在一定程度上显得更便宜，并可能帮助其在市值竞争中重新夺回一些地盘。</p>
</div><p>However, in all likelihood, these two competitors deserve to trade at higher earnings multiples than Apple because of faster growth in earnings per share (EPS). Similar to revenue, both Microsoft and Nvidia have grown EPS at a much faster pace than Apple while Apple's EPS has barely budged in the last few years. Expect this to continue over the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，很可能这两家竞争对手由于每股收益（EPS）增长更快，应该以更高的盈利倍数进行交易。与收入类似，微软和英伟达的每股收益增长速度远快于苹果，而苹果的每股收益在过去几年几乎没有变化。预计这种情况将在未来五年内继续。</p>
</div><p>Apple may see its EPS fall over the next few years. Its high-margin services and software revenue is under attack from antitrust lawsuits. The App Store was ruled a monopoly and Apple is now forced to allow third-party payment processors on mobile applications. Its huge payment from Google for default search engine status is also at risk of getting nullified due to a current lawsuit against Google. Both of these developments may hurt Apple's earnings power over the next few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果在未来几年可能会看到其每股收益下降。其高利润的服务和软件收入正受到反垄断诉讼的攻击。App Store 被裁定为垄断，苹果现在被迫允许第三方支付处理器在移动应用中使用。由于针对谷歌的当前诉讼，其与谷歌的巨额默认搜索引擎地位支付也面临被取消的风险。这两项发展可能会在未来几年内削弱苹果的盈利能力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7c70f8cada09bd686ad8a474ef9705c5.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7c70f8cada09bd686ad8a474ef9705c5.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL EPS Diluted (TTM) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 每股收益稀释（TTM）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Why Apple will not reclaim its status as the largest company in the world</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么苹果不会重新夺回全球最大公司的地位</h2>
</div><p>I think it is unlikely that Apple will reclaim its throne atop the market cap leaderboard. It has minimal growth avenues to drive revenue higher while a company like Nvidia is posting 69% year-over-year revenue growth in its latest quarterly results. This dichotomy means that when it comes to market cap, Apple will fall further behind Nvidia and Microsoft in the years to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为苹果不太可能重新夺回市值排行榜的王座。它几乎没有增长途径来推动收入增长，而像英伟达这样的公司在最新的季度业绩中实现了 69% 的年收入增长。这种对比意味着在市值方面，苹果将在未来几年进一步落后于英伟达和微软。</p>
</div><p>Apple is a risky stock to buy right now. It is growing slowly, trades at a premium P/E ratio, and has risks coming that could hurt its future profitability. Avoid buying this stock for the time being.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，苹果是一只风险较大的股票。它增长缓慢，市盈率较高，并且面临可能影响未来盈利能力的风险。暂时避免购买这只股票。</p>
</div>

Will Apple Reclaim Its Title as the Largest Company in the World by Market Cap? The Answer May Surprise You.

- 苹果公司市值已被微软和英伟达超越，增长乏力。  
- 过去三年，苹果营收仅增长 3.3%，远低于同行。  
- 未来几年，苹果面临盈利能力下降的风险，难以重返市场首位。

苹果是否能够重新成为全球市值最大的公司？答案可能会让你意想不到