<p>无论其作为电动车（EV）制造商的地位如何，<strong>Lucid Group</strong>（LCID -7.68%）仍然只是一只汽车股票，而汽车股票并不会让投资者致富。<strong>特斯拉</strong> 是一个罕见的例外，但我们谈论的是最稀有的例外。</p>
<p>竞争是阻碍像 Lucid 这样的电动车制造商让股东迅速致富的一个因素。除了特斯拉，传统汽车制造商如 <strong>通用汽车</strong> 和 <strong>福特</strong> 也在生产电动车，凭个人经验，我可以说这些车相当不错。纯电动车制造商在这个市场上并没有任何垄断地位，而在汽车行业内更成熟的玩家似乎也不太可能放松压力。</p>
<h2>Lucid 的销售和财务状况</h2>
<p>Lucid 的年销售额确实在增长，从 2020 年的仅 400 万美元增加到 2024 年的超过 8.07 亿美元。问题在于，该业务每年亏损数十亿美元，这也解释了为什么公司股本持续增加，因为它通过发行股票来筹集资金以覆盖运营成本。2025 年第一季度，流通股总数同比增加近 32%，而 Lucid 报告的净亏损为 3.66 亿美元，不包括可赎回可转换优先股的增值，亏损总额达到 7.31 亿美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTk2ODIvbHVjaWRfbW90b3JzX2Fpcl9ldl9lbGVjdHJpY19jYXJfc291cmNlX2x1Y2lkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTk2ODIvbHVjaWRfbW90b3JzX2Fpcl9ldl9lbGVjdHJpY19jYXJfc291cmNlX2x1Y2lkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Lucid Group。</p>
<p>在我看来，这只股票的狂热已经消退，因为在过去五年中它下跌了超过 70%。这并不是说它的产品不好，恰恰相反。《Car and Driver》给 2025 款 Lucid Air 打了五星评级。问题在于，从零开始建立一家汽车公司并与行业内所有生产电动车和内燃机车辆的巨头竞争的成本。</p>
<p>Lucid 在 2024 年的汽车生产量为 9,024 辆，与像通用汽车这样的竞争对手相比微不足道，后者的销量超过 200 万辆。预计 2025 年将生产约 20,000 辆，这在更广泛的汽车市场中仍然显得相当微小。</p>
<h2>竞争过于激烈</h2>
<p>我观察汽车股票已经很长时间了，我并没有看到该行业在投资方面的强劲表现。当然，特斯拉是个例外，但它的业务范围不仅限于汽车，我认为它的股票在某个时刻也会回归现实。</p>
<p>人们只能购买有限数量的汽车。无论是电动车还是传统内燃机汽车，人们不会购买超过所需的汽车。随着电动车选项的增加，Lucid 似乎并没有特别突出，除了它专注于豪华车这一点。但像凯迪拉克、<strong>梅赛德斯</strong> 和 <strong>沃尔沃</strong> 等竞争对手也在做同样的事情，他们拥有更多的基础设施来实现规模生产。</p>
<p>大多数汽车股票的市盈率在 10 到 13 倍之间。我认为这些电动车初创公司在热潮消退后最终会得到类似的估值。梅赛德斯在豪华车市场运营，过去五年中其股价上涨超过 56%。与此相比，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 在同一时期的回报为 94%，我认为汽车股票开始超越市场的理由非常有限。这是一个资本密集型的行业，非常容易受到经济疲软的影响。回到我的标题，我认为 Lucid 的股票不会让任何人一生无忧，但如果公司能够继续扩张，这可能是一个不错的投资。</p>

LCID

<p>Lucid Group (LCID) 作为一家电动汽车制造商面临重大挑战，需与特斯拉、通用汽车和福特等成熟汽车制造商竞争。尽管销售额从 2020 年的 400 万美元增长到 2024 年的超过 8.07 亿美元，但 Lucid 每年仍在亏损数十亿美元，导致流通股增加了 32%。在 2025 年的生产目标仅为 20,000 辆的情况下，Lucid 在竞争激烈的市场中难以脱颖而出。虽然该股票可能无法让投资者一劳永逸，但如果公司能够有效扩张，仍可能是一个合理的投资</p>

<p>Regardless of its status as an electric vehicle (EV) player, <strong>Lucid Group</strong>(LCID -7.68%) is still just a car stock, and car stocks do not make investors fortunes. <strong>Tesla</strong> has been a rare exception, but we're talking about the rarest of the rare.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论其作为电动车（EV）制造商的地位如何，<strong>Lucid Group</strong>（LCID -7.68%）仍然只是一只汽车股票，而汽车股票并不会让投资者致富。<strong>特斯拉</strong> 是一个罕见的例外，但我们谈论的是最稀有的例外。</p>
</div><p>Competition is one thing keeping EV makers like Lucid from rocketing shareholders to incredible wealth. In addition to Tesla, traditional automakers like <strong>General Motors</strong> and <strong>Ford</strong> also make electric vehicles, which, from personal experience, I can say are quite nice. The pure EV players don't have any sort of monopoly on that space of the business, and it seems very unlikely that the more established players within autos are going to let up the pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>竞争是阻碍像 Lucid 这样的电动车制造商让股东迅速致富的一个因素。除了特斯拉，传统汽车制造商如 <strong>通用汽车</strong> 和 <strong>福特</strong> 也在生产电动车，凭个人经验，我可以说这些车相当不错。纯电动车制造商在这个市场上并没有任何垄断地位，而在汽车行业内更成熟的玩家似乎也不太可能放松压力。</p>
</div><h2>Lucid's sales and financials</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Lucid 的销售和财务状况</h2>
</div><p>Lucid's annual sales are definitely growing, increasing from a mere $4 million in 2020 to over $807 million in 2024. The problem is that the business is losing billions annually, which explains why the company's share count continues to climb as it raises capital to cover operations by issuing shares. Total shares outstanding increased nearly 32% year over year in the first quarter of 2025, all while Lucid reported a net loss of $366 million, excluding accretion of redeemable convertible preferred stock, which took losses to $731 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lucid 的年销售额确实在增长，从 2020 年的仅 400 万美元增加到 2024 年的超过 8.07 亿美元。问题在于，该业务每年亏损数十亿美元，这也解释了为什么公司股本持续增加，因为它通过发行股票来筹集资金以覆盖运营成本。2025 年第一季度，流通股总数同比增加近 32%，而 Lucid 报告的净亏损为 3.66 亿美元，不包括可赎回可转换优先股的增值，亏损总额达到 7.31 亿美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTk2ODIvbHVjaWRfbW90b3JzX2Fpcl9ldl9lbGVjdHJpY19jYXJfc291cmNlX2x1Y2lkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F819682%2Flucid_motors_air_ev_electric_car_source_lucid.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Lucid Group.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Lucid Group。</p>
</div><p>To me, the euphoria has worn off this stock, as it is down over 70% in the last five years. This isn't to say that it makes a bad product. Quite the opposite. Car and Driver gives the 2025 Lucid Air a five-star rating. The problem is the cost of building up a car company from scratch and competing against the established giants in the industry that are all making their own electric cars along with internal combustion engine vehicles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，这只股票的狂热已经消退，因为在过去五年中它下跌了超过 70%。这并不是说它的产品不好，恰恰相反。《Car and Driver》给 2025 款 Lucid Air 打了五星评级。问题在于，从零开始建立一家汽车公司并与行业内所有生产电动车和内燃机车辆的巨头竞争的成本。</p>
</div><p>Lucid's car production came in at 9,024 vehicles in 2024, which is minuscule compared to competitors like General Motors, which sold well over 2 million vehicles. Guidance calls for around 20,000 vehicles to be produced in 2025, which is still pretty minuscule relative to the broader car market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lucid 在 2024 年的汽车生产量为 9,024 辆，与像通用汽车这样的竞争对手相比微不足道，后者的销量超过 200 万辆。预计 2025 年将生产约 20,000 辆，这在更广泛的汽车市场中仍然显得相当微小。</p>
</div><h2>Too much competition</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>竞争过于激烈</h2>
</div><p>I've been watching auto stocks for a long time, and I don't see the strength of the sector in terms of investment. The exception is, of course, Tesla, but its operations span across more than just cars, and I think its stock will also come back to earth at some point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我观察汽车股票已经很长时间了，我并没有看到该行业在投资方面的强劲表现。当然，特斯拉是个例外，但它的业务范围不仅限于汽车，我认为它的股票在某个时刻也会回归现实。</p>
</div><p>People can only buy so many cars. Whether it's EVs or regular combustion engines, people aren't going to buy more cars than needed. With an increasing number of options within EVs, Lucid doesn't seem to particularly stand out from the pack, aside from the fact that it focuses on luxury vehicles. But competitors like Cadillac, <strong>Mercedes</strong>, and <strong>Volvo</strong> are all doing the same thing, and they have more of the infrastructure required to produce at scale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人们只能购买有限数量的汽车。无论是电动车还是传统内燃机汽车，人们不会购买超过所需的汽车。随着电动车选项的增加，Lucid 似乎并没有特别突出，除了它专注于豪华车这一点。但像凯迪拉克、<strong>梅赛德斯</strong> 和 <strong>沃尔沃</strong> 等竞争对手也在做同样的事情，他们拥有更多的基础设施来实现规模生产。</p>
</div><p>Most car stocks trade at around 10 to 13 times earnings. I think these electric start-ups will end up with similar valuations once the fervor has worn off. Mercedes operates in the luxury space and has delivered gains of over 56% over the last five years. That pales in comparison to the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> return of 94% over that same time frame, and I see very little reason for car stocks to start outperforming the market. It's a capital-intensive business and very susceptible to weak economic conditions. Back to my headline, I don't think Lucid stock will set anyone up for life, but it could make for an OK investment if the company can continue to scale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多数汽车股票的市盈率在 10 到 13 倍之间。我认为这些电动车初创公司在热潮消退后最终会得到类似的估值。梅赛德斯在豪华车市场运营，过去五年中其股价上涨超过 56%。与此相比，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 在同一时期的回报为 94%，我认为汽车股票开始超越市场的理由非常有限。这是一个资本密集型的行业，非常容易受到经济疲软的影响。回到我的标题，我认为 Lucid 的股票不会让任何人一生无忧，但如果公司能够继续扩张，这可能是一个不错的投资。</p>
</div>

今天购买 Lucid Group 的股票能否让你一生无忧？