<p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.76%) 通过全球制造布局优化了其成本。如果特朗普总统如愿以偿，这种与中国的关系可能会结束。iPhone 制造商利用中国和其他亚洲国家的大量廉价劳动力，低成本地生产和组装硬件，然后向全球消费者销售，从中获得可观的利润。</p>
<p>现在，由于对中国进口实施了高额关税，苹果开始将部分制造转移到印度，以降低风险。然而，这引起了特朗普的愤怒，他表示苹果将面临 25% 的 iPhone 进口关税，并且这些产品应该在美国制造，以便将制造业带回美国。</p>
<p>分析师表示，在美国制造 iPhone 将大幅提高苹果的运营成本。这是否给投资者提供了抛售股票的理由？</p>
<h2>夹在中国和美国之间</h2>
<p>由于劳动力成本较高，在美国组装 iPhone 将增加苹果硬件产品的可变成本。分析师估计，苹果将需要花费数百亿美元将制造转移到美国，同时将每台产品的价格从 40 美元提高到 200 美元或更高。苹果可能通过提高 iPhone 的零售价格来弥补这些成本，但考虑到旗舰设备的价格已经在 1000 美元左右，这对消费者来说要求过高。</p>
<p>上个季度，苹果的产品部门产生了接近 250 亿美元的毛利润，即收入减去制造/组装成本。如果苹果被迫支付高额关税或在美国制造手机，这些巨额毛利润可能会消失，导致净收入和自由现金流减少。除了美国的高成本外，苹果的供应链也无法避免关税，iPhone 的一些零部件来自亚洲，仍然面临高额关税。</p>
<p>实际上，苹果约一半的毛利润来自其高利润率的服务部门，这不会直接受到关税的影响。这包括来自 App Store 的收入以及与谷歌的分销协议，后者使其成为 Safari 浏览器的默认搜索引擎。在 2024 财年，苹果总毛利润 1810 亿美元中，有 710 亿美元来自服务。</p>
<p>这些高利润的收入来源正受到反垄断诉讼的攻击。苹果现在被迫允许移动应用使用替代支付方式，以规避其 30% 的支付处理费用，这可能导致一些利润消失。当前的诉讼可能会阻止苹果接受来自谷歌的每年高达 200 亿美元（或更多）的巨额支付，以维持默认搜索引擎地位，这又是一个潜在的利润打击。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTk4Njgvc29jaWFsLW1lZGlhLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTk4Njgvc29jaWFsLW1lZGlhLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>收入增长放缓，人工智能领域落后？</h2>
<p>即使在关税和反垄断诉讼的威胁之前，苹果与其他 “七大巨头” 股票相比也并未全力以赴。在过去三年中，苹果的收入仅累计增长了 3%。<strong>Alphabet</strong> 增长了 29%，<strong>Microsoft</strong> 增长了 36%，而 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 在同一时期的增长高达 339%。该公司显然不再有太大增长，因为它未能推出任何接近 iPhone 受欢迎程度的新硬件设备。</p>
<p>在人工智能（AI）领域，苹果可能远远落后于竞争对手。它未能发布 Siri 的更新服务，而让像 Alphabet 这样的竞争对手在文本、视频和图像生成方面取得了尖端突破。这在今天的数字中并未显现，但苹果在下一个伟大技术范式中未能获胜的风险很大，尽管它今天拥有广泛的品牌护城河，但这最终会影响其底线。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9116aa749350822fc1cf7e1cb4e1dd6d.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9116aa749350822fc1cf7e1cb4e1dd6d.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 收入（TTM）数据来自 YCharts</p>
<h2>现在是抛售苹果股票的时候吗？</h2>
<p>苹果股票今年下跌了 17.8%。我认为该股票目前对投资者来说仍然显得高估。它的市盈率（P/E）为 31，高于 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 的平均水平，也高于 Alphabet，尽管 Alphabet 的增长速度快得多。</p>
<p>低增长股票以高估值交易是危险的，即使它们过去表现强劲。如果关税、诉讼和在人工智能领域的失败导致苹果在全球科技格局中的影响力下降，苹果的收益可能最终会朝着错误的方向发展。如果苹果的利润在五年后低于今天，我也不会感到惊讶。</p>
<p>基于这些原因，苹果股票现在很容易从你的投资组合中抛售。</p>

苹果

<p>苹果的股票面临压力，因为特朗普总统威胁对 iPhone 进口征收 25% 的关税，这迫使公司考虑在美国制造，这可能会显著提高成本。分析师估计，生产成本可能从每单位 40 美元增加到 200 美元，这将影响苹果的毛利润。此外，持续的反垄断诉讼威胁到其高利润率的服务收入。由于苹果的收入增长落后于竞争对手，且市盈率高达 31，股票似乎被高估，导致分析师建议投资者考虑出售</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.76%) has optimized its costs through a global manufacturing footprint. This relationship -- specifically with China -- may be coming to an end if President Donald Trump gets his way. The maker of the iPhone used the large and cheap labor market of China and other Asian nations to cheaply build and assemble its hardware before selling to consumers around the world, making a tidy profit in the process.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.76%) 通过全球制造布局优化了其成本。如果特朗普总统如愿以偿，这种与中国的关系可能会结束。iPhone 制造商利用中国和其他亚洲国家的大量廉价劳动力，低成本地生产和组装硬件，然后向全球消费者销售，从中获得可观的利润。</p>
</div><p>Now, with large tariffs implemented on imports from China, Apple has begun to move some of its manufacturing to India in order to hedge its bets. However, this caught the ire of Trump, who said that Apple will face a 25% tariff on iPhone imports and that the products should be made in the United States in order to reshore manufacturing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，由于对中国进口实施了高额关税，苹果开始将部分制造转移到印度，以降低风险。然而，这引起了特朗普的愤怒，他表示苹果将面临 25% 的 iPhone 进口关税，并且这些产品应该在美国制造，以便将制造业带回美国。</p>
</div><p>According to analysts, building iPhones in the United States will greatly raise Apple's operating costs. Does that give investors a reason to sell the stock?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师表示，在美国制造 iPhone 将大幅提高苹果的运营成本。这是否给投资者提供了抛售股票的理由？</p>
</div><h2>Stuck between China and the United States</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>夹在中国和美国之间</h2>
</div><p>Due to higher labor costs, assembling iPhones in the United States would increase Apple's variable costs for its hardware products. Analysts estimate it would cost Apple tens of billions of dollars to switch manufacturing to the United States while raising the per-unit price from $40 to $200 or higher. It is possible that Apple could make up these costs by raising the retail price on iPhones, but that is asking a lot from consumers when flagship devices already cost around $1,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于劳动力成本较高，在美国组装 iPhone 将增加苹果硬件产品的可变成本。分析师估计，苹果将需要花费数百亿美元将制造转移到美国，同时将每台产品的价格从 40 美元提高到 200 美元或更高。苹果可能通过提高 iPhone 的零售价格来弥补这些成本，但考虑到旗舰设备的价格已经在 1000 美元左右，这对消费者来说要求过高。</p>
</div><p>Last quarter, Apple's product division generated just under $25 billion in gross profit, which is revenue minus manufacturing/assembly costs. If Apple is forced to pay high tariffs or manufacture its phones in the United States, these large gross profits may disappear, leading to less bottom-line income and free cash flow. On top of the higher costs in the United States, Apple's supply chain wouldn't be immune from tariffs, with parts of the iPhone imported from Asia and still subjected to high tariffs as of this writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上个季度，苹果的产品部门产生了接近 250 亿美元的毛利润，即收入减去制造/组装成本。如果苹果被迫支付高额关税或在美国制造手机，这些巨额毛利润可能会消失，导致净收入和自由现金流减少。除了美国的高成本外，苹果的供应链也无法避免关税，iPhone 的一些零部件来自亚洲，仍然面临高额关税。</p>
</div><p>In actuality, around half of Apple's gross profit comes from its high-margin services segment, which will not be directly impacted by tariffs. This includes revenue from the App Store and distribution agreements from Google to be the default search engine on the Safari web browser. In fiscal year 2024, $71 billion of Apple's total gross profit of $181 billion came from services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>实际上，苹果约一半的毛利润来自其高利润率的服务部门，这不会直接受到关税的影响。这包括来自 App Store 的收入以及与谷歌的分销协议，后者使其成为 Safari 浏览器的默认搜索引擎。在 2024 财年，苹果总毛利润 1810 亿美元中，有 710 亿美元来自服务。</p>
</div><p>These high-margin revenue streams are under attack from antitrust lawsuits. Apple is now forced to allow mobile applications to use alternative payment methods to sidestep its 30% fee on payment processing, which could lead some profits to disappear. Current lawsuits may bar Apple from accepting a huge $20 billion (or more) annual payment from Google for default search engine status, another potential profit hit coming down the line.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些高利润的收入来源正受到反垄断诉讼的攻击。苹果现在被迫允许移动应用使用替代支付方式，以规避其 30% 的支付处理费用，这可能导致一些利润消失。当前的诉讼可能会阻止苹果接受来自谷歌的每年高达 200 亿美元（或更多）的巨额支付，以维持默认搜索引擎地位，这又是一个潜在的利润打击。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTk4Njgvc29jaWFsLW1lZGlhLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F819868%2Fsocial-media.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Slowing revenue growth, falling behind in AI?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>收入增长放缓，人工智能领域落后？</h2>
</div><p>Even before these threats from tariffs and antitrust lawsuits, Apple was not firing on all cylinders compared to the other &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; stocks. Over the last three years, Apple has only grown its revenue by a cumulative 3%. <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s is up 29%, <strong>Microsoft</strong>'s is up 36%, and <strong>Nvidia</strong>'s is up a staggering 339% over that same time frame. The company is simply not growing much anymore as it fails to deliver any new hardware device that comes close to the popularity of the iPhone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在关税和反垄断诉讼的威胁之前，苹果与其他 “七大巨头” 股票相比也并未全力以赴。在过去三年中，苹果的收入仅累计增长了 3%。<strong>Alphabet</strong> 增长了 29%，<strong>Microsoft</strong> 增长了 36%，而 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 在同一时期的增长高达 339%。该公司显然不再有太大增长，因为它未能推出任何接近 iPhone 受欢迎程度的新硬件设备。</p>
</div><p>In artificial intelligence (AI), Apple may be falling well behind the competition. It has failed to release updated services for Siri while letting competitors like Alphabet post cutting-edge breakthroughs in text, video, and image generation for consumers. This is not showing up in the numbers today, but Apple is at major risk of failing to win in the next great technology paradigm, which will impact its bottom line eventually despite its wide brand moat today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在人工智能（AI）领域，苹果可能远远落后于竞争对手。它未能发布 Siri 的更新服务，而让像 Alphabet 这样的竞争对手在文本、视频和图像生成方面取得了尖端突破。这在今天的数字中并未显现，但苹果在下一个伟大技术范式中未能获胜的风险很大，尽管它今天拥有广泛的品牌护城河，但这最终会影响其底线。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9116aa749350822fc1cf7e1cb4e1dd6d.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9116aa749350822fc1cf7e1cb4e1dd6d.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 收入（TTM）数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Is now the time to sell Apple stock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在是抛售苹果股票的时候吗？</h2>
</div><p>Apple stock is down 17.8% this year. I believe the stock still looks overvalued for investors today. It trades at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 31, which is higher than the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> average and higher than Alphabet even though Alphabet is growing much faster.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果股票今年下跌了 17.8%。我认为该股票目前对投资者来说仍然显得高估。它的市盈率（P/E）为 31，高于 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 的平均水平，也高于 Alphabet，尽管 Alphabet 的增长速度快得多。</p>
</div><p>Low-growth stocks trading at a premium earnings multiple are dangerous to own, even if they have been strong performers in the past. Apple may see its earnings finally move in the wrong direction if tariffs, lawsuits, and failures to win in AI lead to deteriorating power in the global technology landscape. It wouldn't shock me if Apple's profits were lower in five years compared to today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>低增长股票以高估值交易是危险的，即使它们过去表现强劲。如果关税、诉讼和在人工智能领域的失败导致苹果在全球科技格局中的影响力下降，苹果的收益可能最终会朝着错误的方向发展。如果苹果的利润在五年后低于今天，我也不会感到惊讶。</p>
</div><p>For these reasons, Apple stock is an easy sell from your portfolio right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基于这些原因，苹果股票现在很容易从你的投资组合中抛售。</p>
</div>

Apple Stock: Did President Trump Just Give Investors a Reason to Sell?

- 苹果公司因关税和反垄断诉讼面临成本上升风险。  
- 预计在美国组装 iPhone 将使运营成本大幅增加。  
- 分析师认为，苹果股票在当前环境下可能被高估。  

苹果股票：特朗普总统是否刚刚给投资者一个卖出的理由？