<p>任何关注电子商务巨头 <strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN 0.80%) 的投资者可能已经知道其云计算部门对公司盈利的重要性。对于那些不知道的人来说，亚马逊的收入大部分仍然来自于向在线购物者销售商品，去年的 58% 营业利润来自于亚马逊网络服务，尽管这一业务仅占亚马逊总销售额的 17%。这使得亚马逊可观的基于云的现金流能够支持许多不同的增长计划。而且确实如此！</p>
<p>不过，这条比喻上的 “奶牛” 在可预见的未来可能不会像最近过去那样令人印象深刻。虽然亚马逊网络服务似乎仍然享有相当的定价权，但如果 AWS 的市场份额趋势有任何迹象，这种情况可能很快就会改变。这为利润率的缩小以及最终净利润的减少奠定了基础。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjAwMjUvb2xkZXItbWFuLWxhcHRvcC1hbm5veWVkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjAwMjUvb2xkZXItbWFuLWxhcHRvcC1hbm5veWVkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>AWS 正在失去市场份额</h2>
<p>技术市场研究机构 Synergy Research Group 每季度跟踪全球在云计算服务上的支出。正如一段时间以来的情况一样，亚马逊网络服务在今年第一季度仍然是该行业最大的名字，保持着对 <strong>微软</strong> 和 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的谷歌云业务的领先地位。</p>
<p>不过，这一领先地位正在缩小。实际上，正如 Synergy 最近历史数据的图表所示，亚马逊网络服务在全球云计算销售中的份额在 2025 年第一季度降至多年来的低点（可能是创纪录的低点）29%。这一低迷不仅延续了自 2023 年初以来的下行趋势，还加速了这一趋势。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjAwMjUvMDUyOTI1LWNsb3VkLWNvbXB1dGluZy1tYXJrZXQtc2hhcmUucG5nJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjAwMjUvMDUyOTI1LWNsb3VkLWNvbXB1dGluZy1tYXJrZXQtc2hhcmUucG5nJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>数据来源：Synergy Research Group。图表由作者提供。</p>
<p>这并不是说谷歌和微软对这一市场份额的下滑负有全部责任。虽然这两家公司在 2022 年及 2023 年初明显获得了市场份额，但这两大巨头最近也在争夺云业务方面遇到了困难。亚马逊最近的市场份额损失主要是由于一些不知名的 “其他” 提供商。这是有道理的——随着行业的成熟，云计算客户正在寻找只有较小的云计算公司可能提供的更专业的选项和功能。</p>
<p>无论如何，亚马逊网络服务显然正在失去市场份额。而且它当然不想这样。</p>
<h2>目前仍然足够盈利</h2>
<p>目前这还没有太大影响。实际上，AWS 的收入仍然在技术上增长得比该部门的运营成本快，使得在 2025 年第一季度利润率仍在扩大。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjAwMjUvMDUyOTI1LWF3cy1yZXZlbnVlLXByb2ZpdC1tYXJnaW4ucG5nJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjAwMjUvMDUyOTI1LWF3cy1yZXZlbnVlLXByb2ZpdC1tYXJnaW4ucG5nJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>数据来源：亚马逊。图表由作者提供。</p>
<p>不过，从更长远的角度来看，云计算业务显然竞争激烈，即使是较小的参与者现在也有能力对所谓的 “三巨头” 发起反击。虽然行业整体增长足以让所有这些服务提供商受益，但我们可能正处于这一方面的转折点。如果其增长率放缓——这通常是商业成熟后发生的情况——那么云计算的商品化可能会引发价格战。</p>
<p>价格战当然会压缩利润率。</p>
<h2>只需关注这一业务的动态</h2>
<p>如果你目前持有亚马逊的股份，不要惊慌；这并不是避免投资亚马逊的理由。这个业务仍然有很好的盈利机会，亚马逊也处于获得其应得份额的良好位置。</p>
<p>不过，也不要天真。亚马逊的股票一直被定价为 AWS 将继续作为强大的利润生产者，直到现在。现在，这一曾经可靠的假设正受到质疑。即使是这一方面的一个小红旗也可能对亚马逊的股票造成过大的影响，可能会引发意外的失望。</p>
<p>换句话说，只需关注这一业务的动态，以确保你不会被即将发布的季度报告完全蒙蔽。上述两个图表中的一个迟早会改变方向，而且可能会比预期更早。</p>

亚马逊

<p>亚马逊网络服务（AWS）对亚马逊的利润至关重要，尽管仅占销售额的 17%，却贡献了 58% 的营业利润。然而，AWS 的市场份额正在下降，在 2025 年第一季度降至 29% 的多年低点，原因是来自小型供应商的竞争加剧。虽然 AWS 的收入仍在增长，但放缓可能导致价格战和利润率下降。投资者应保持谨慎，因为 AWS 表现的任何负面变化都可能对亚马逊的股价产生重大影响</p>

<p>Any investor keeping tabs on e-commerce giant <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 0.80%) probably already knows how important its cloud computing arm is to the company's bottom line. For those who don't, the bulk of its revenue still comes from selling merchandise to online shoppers, 58% of last year's operating profits came from Amazon Web Services, even though this business only made up 17% of Amazon's total sales. That allows Amazon's sizable cloud-based cash flow to help fund a lot of different growth initiatives. And it is!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>任何关注电子商务巨头 <strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN 0.80%) 的投资者可能已经知道其云计算部门对公司盈利的重要性。对于那些不知道的人来说，亚马逊的收入大部分仍然来自于向在线购物者销售商品，去年的 58% 营业利润来自于亚马逊网络服务，尽管这一业务仅占亚马逊总销售额的 17%。这使得亚马逊可观的基于云的现金流能够支持许多不同的增长计划。而且确实如此！</p>
</div><p>This proverbial gravy train might not be quite as impressive in the foreseeable future as it's been in the recent past, though. While Amazon Web Services still seems to enjoy a decent degree of pricing power, if AWS' market share trend is any indication, that could be changing soon. This sets the stage for narrower profit margins, and ultimately less net profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，这条比喻上的 “奶牛” 在可预见的未来可能不会像最近过去那样令人印象深刻。虽然亚马逊网络服务似乎仍然享有相当的定价权，但如果 AWS 的市场份额趋势有任何迹象，这种情况可能很快就会改变。这为利润率的缩小以及最终净利润的减少奠定了基础。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjAwMjUvb2xkZXItbWFuLWxhcHRvcC1hbm5veWVkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F820025%2Folder-man-laptop-annoyed.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>AWS is losing market share</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>AWS 正在失去市场份额</h2>
</div><p>Technology market research outfit Synergy Research Group keeps track of the numbers, reporting how much the world spends on cloud computing services each and every quarter. As has been the case for some time now, Amazon Web Services remained the single-biggest name in the business through Q1 of this year, maintaining its lead on <strong>Microsoft</strong>'s and <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s Google cloud businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>技术市场研究机构 Synergy Research Group 每季度跟踪全球在云计算服务上的支出。正如一段时间以来的情况一样，亚马逊网络服务在今年第一季度仍然是该行业最大的名字，保持着对 <strong>微软</strong> 和 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的谷歌云业务的领先地位。</p>
</div><p>That lead is narrowing, though. Indeed, as the chart of Synergy's recent historical data illustrates, Amazon Web Services' share of the world's cloud computing sales fell to a multi-year low (maybe a record low?) 29% during the first quarter of 2025. That lull not only extends a downtrend that's been underway since early 2023, but accelerates it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，这一领先地位正在缩小。实际上，正如 Synergy 最近历史数据的图表所示，亚马逊网络服务在全球云计算销售中的份额在 2025 年第一季度降至多年来的低点（可能是创纪录的低点）29%。这一低迷不仅延续了自 2023 年初以来的下行趋势，还加速了这一趋势。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjAwMjUvMDUyOTI1LWNsb3VkLWNvbXB1dGluZy1tYXJrZXQtc2hhcmUucG5nJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F820025%2F052925-cloud-computing-market-share.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: Synergy Research Group. Chart by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：Synergy Research Group。图表由作者提供。</p>
</div><p>That's not to suggest Google and Microsoft are solely responsible for this market-share setback. While both clearly gained share through 2022 and into 2023, both of these big names have also struggled to win cloud business of late. Much of Amazon's recent loss of market share is to mostly unknown &#34;other&#34; providers. This makes sense -- as the industry matures, cloud computing clients are looking for the more specialized options and features that only the smaller cloud computing companies may offer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不是说谷歌和微软对这一市场份额的下滑负有全部责任。虽然这两家公司在 2022 年及 2023 年初明显获得了市场份额，但这两大巨头最近也在争夺云业务方面遇到了困难。亚马逊最近的市场份额损失主要是由于一些不知名的 “其他” 提供商。这是有道理的——随着行业的成熟，云计算客户正在寻找只有较小的云计算公司可能提供的更专业的选项和功能。</p>
</div><p>Regardless, Amazon Web Services is clearly losing market share. And it certainly doesn't want to.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论如何，亚马逊网络服务显然正在失去市场份额。而且它当然不想这样。</p>
</div><h2>Still profitable enough ... for now</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>目前仍然足够盈利</h2>
</div><p>It hasn't mattered much yet. Indeed, AWS' revenue is still technically growing faster than the arm's operating costs are, allowing for still-widening profit margins through the first quarter of 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前这还没有太大影响。实际上，AWS 的收入仍然在技术上增长得比该部门的运营成本快，使得在 2025 年第一季度利润率仍在扩大。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjAwMjUvMDUyOTI1LWF3cy1yZXZlbnVlLXByb2ZpdC1tYXJnaW4ucG5nJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F820025%2F052925-aws-revenue-profit-margin.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: Amazon. Chart by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：亚马逊。图表由作者提供。</p>
</div><p>Think bigger picture, though, and longer term. The cloud computing business is clearly competitive, and even its smaller players are now in a position to push back against the so-called &#34;Big Three.&#34; While there's been enough industrywide growth for all these service providers to go around, we may be at a turning point on this front. If its growth rate slows -- as is usually the case once a business matures -- look for cloud's commoditization to kick off a price war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，从更长远的角度来看，云计算业务显然竞争激烈，即使是较小的参与者现在也有能力对所谓的 “三巨头” 发起反击。虽然行业整体增长足以让所有这些服务提供商受益，但我们可能正处于这一方面的转折点。如果其增长率放缓——这通常是商业成熟后发生的情况——那么云计算的商品化可能会引发价格战。</p>
</div><p>Price wars, of course, punch profit margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>价格战当然会压缩利润率。</p>
</div><h2>Just keep your finger on the pulse of this business</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>只需关注这一业务的动态</h2>
</div><p>Don't panic if you currently hold a stake in Amazon; this isn't exactly a reason in and of itself to avoid a position in Amazon, either. There's still good money to be made in the business, and Amazon is well-positioned to earn its fair share of it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你目前持有亚马逊的股份，不要惊慌；这并不是避免投资亚马逊的理由。这个业务仍然有很好的盈利机会，亚马逊也处于获得其应得份额的良好位置。</p>
</div><p>Don't be naïve, either, however. Amazon stock has been and remains priced as if AWS will remain the powerhouse profit producer it's been up until this point. Now this once-reliable presumption is in question. Even the smallest red flag on this front could take an oversized toll on Amazon stock, sparked by unexpected disappointment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，也不要天真。亚马逊的股票一直被定价为 AWS 将继续作为强大的利润生产者，直到现在。现在，这一曾经可靠的假设正受到质疑。即使是这一方面的一个小红旗也可能对亚马逊的股票造成过大的影响，可能会引发意外的失望。</p>
</div><p>In other words, just keep your finger on the pulse of this business to make sure you're not completely blindsided by one of its upcoming quarterly reports. One of the two charts above is going to have to change directions sooner or later, and likely sooner <em>than</em> later.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，只需关注这一业务的动态，以确保你不会被即将发布的季度报告完全蒙蔽。上述两个图表中的一个迟早会改变方向，而且可能会比预期更早。</p>
</div>

This 1 Thing Is Really Bugging Me About Amazon Web Services

- 亚马逊云计算业务 AWS 贡献了 58% 的运营利润，但市场份额正在下降。  
- 根据 Synergy Research Group 数据，2025 年第一季度 AWS 市场份额降至 29%。  
- 行业竞争加剧，可能导致价格战和利润率下降。  

有一件事让我对亚马逊网络服务感到非常困扰