<p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.83%) 在过去两年中面临了一系列挑战。一些投资者认为，该公司在快速发展的人工智能（AI）领域正在失去对竞争对手的优势；iPhone 的销售不再是曾经的增长动力；而立法者和监管机构因涉嫌反垄断行为而将这家科技巨头作为目标。然而，所有这些问题都被苹果因唐纳德·特朗普总统的贸易政策所面临的风险所掩盖。我们还没有看到这一切的结束。总统最近的一些言论甚至给苹果带来了更多坏消息。</p><p>这只股票值得避免吗？</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/fea0ac75ec1734b88461f73047756e4c?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/fea0ac75ec1734b88461f73047756e4c"/></figure><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p><h2 id="usoj566ea">特朗普针对苹果</h2><p>苹果在中国进行大部分制造，而中国是特朗普总统最主要的关税目标。虽然政府曾考虑对大多数国家的进口商品征收关税，但这些与对中国威胁征收的关税相比，显得微不足道。因此，苹果可能至少可以通过将制造转移到其他国家（如印度）来减少关税的影响。</p><p>拥有更为多元化的全球制造布局可能是应对特朗普总统贸易议程的一个不错方式，苹果可能是这么认为的。然而，在 5 月 23 日，特朗普对这些计划造成了打击。总统在社交媒体上表示，除非苹果在美国为美国客户制造 iPhone，否则将不得不支付至少 25% 的关税。</p><p>特朗普在 Truth Social 上发布：&#34;我早就通知苹果的蒂姆·库克，我希望他们在美国销售的 iPhone 是在美国制造的，而不是在印度或其他地方。如果不是这样，苹果必须向美国支付至少 25% 的关税。感谢您对此事的关注！&#34;</p><p>换句话说，苹果可以自由地将工厂迁移到其他国家，但除非那个国家是美国，否则它将遭到现任政府的愤怒，并且必须支付关税。这对投资者意味着什么？</p><h2 id="gl4n2qkfi">苹果能克服这个障碍吗？</h2><p>特朗普并不仅仅针对苹果。他后来澄清说，这一标准也适用于其他科技公司。但这并没有改善苹果的处境。将数百万部 iPhone 的生产转移到美国对苹果来说将是一个后勤噩梦（如果它能做到的话），更不用说这将大幅增加公司的成本。在这种情况下，苹果别无选择，只能大幅提高价格。虽然很难预测政府接下来会做什么，但值得注意的是，特朗普的关税规则变化迅速。</p><p>特朗普之前宣布了一项包括智能手机在内的科技关税豁免，而现在看来他已经改变了立场。这一切的不确定性和不可预测性对苹果来说是一个挑战，而市场厌恶不确定性。特朗普 5 月 23 日的帖子发布后，苹果股票下跌，但随后又恢复了损失。</p><p>在我看来，尽管短期内可能面临与 iPhone 相关的挑战，但苹果的长期前景（考虑十年或更长时间）更多地依赖于其服务部门。苹果在流通中的设备超过 23.5 亿台，客户忠诚度和留存率高，苹果将继续产生新的货币化想法，而当前的货币化方式，包括金融科技、流媒体和其他领域，将在长期内变得更加重要。</p><p>苹果拥有超过十亿个付费订阅。其服务部门的利润率远高于业务的其他部分。</p><p>如果苹果确实需要承担更高的 iPhone 生产成本，会发生什么？这里有至少三点需要记住。首先，作为全球最有价值的品牌之一，苹果拥有显著的定价权。一般来说，苹果的 iPhone 已经比直接的安卓竞争对手更贵。虽然这背后有多种原因，但公司的品牌影响力可能起了作用。因此，即使它必须支付更高的关税，苹果也可能能够将部分成本转嫁给客户，从而避免显著的利润侵蚀。</p><p>其次，考虑到 5000 美元的智能手机将会多么不受欢迎，即使是现任政府也可能不会实施过于高额的关税，而是与苹果和其他科技巨头达成协议。第三，特朗普的贸易政策在他任期结束后可能不会继续。这些因素表明，苹果的长期前景仍然具有吸引力。</p><p>估值是个问题吗？苹果的前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 27.9，而信息技术行业为 27.1，<strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 为 21.5。考虑到它面临的问题可能会削减其收益，尽管与行业平均水平相符，公司的前瞻市盈率似乎有些高。但对于愿意持有其股票一段时间的投资者来说，这在十年或更长时间内可能不是太大的问题。这就是为什么我仍然建议在其股价较年初下跌 20% 时买入该股票。</p>

苹果

<p>特朗普总统通过威胁对未在美国生产的 iPhone 征收 25% 的关税，引发了苹果投资者的担忧。这正值苹果在人工智能领域面临挑战以及 iPhone 销量下滑之际。特朗普的言论造成了不确定性，影响了股票表现。尽管将生产转移到美国面临物流和成本挑战，但苹果强大的品牌和服务部门可能有助于减轻长期风险。尽管与行业平均水平相比，苹果的市盈率较高，但其长期前景依然吸引人，尽管当前的贸易政策为其运营增加了复杂性</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.83%) has faced a series of headwinds in the past two years. Some investors believe the company is losing ground to its competitors in the rapidly growing artificial intelligence (AI) field; iPhone sales are no longer the growth driver they once were; and lawmakers and regulators have targeted the tech leader due to alleged antitrust practices. However, all of these problems have taken a backseat to the risk Apple runs due to President Donald Trump's trade policies. We haven't seen the last of that either. Some recent comments from the president's spell even more bad news for Apple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.83%) 在过去两年中面临了一系列挑战。一些投资者认为，该公司在快速发展的人工智能（AI）领域正在失去对竞争对手的优势；iPhone 的销售不再是曾经的增长动力；而立法者和监管机构因涉嫌反垄断行为而将这家科技巨头作为目标。然而，所有这些问题都被苹果因唐纳德·特朗普总统的贸易政策所面临的风险所掩盖。我们还没有看到这一切的结束。总统最近的一些言论甚至给苹果带来了更多坏消息。</p>
</div><p>Is the stock one to avoid?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这只股票值得避免吗？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTk4MjEvd29tYW4tbG9va2luZy1hdC1zbWFycGhvbmUuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F819821%2Fwoman-looking-at-smarphone.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Trump targets Apple</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特朗普针对苹果</h2>
</div><p>Apple does the bulk of its manufacturing in China, the country that President Trump has targeted the most with his tariffs. While the administration has flirted with duties on imported goods from most countries, most of these pale in comparison to the ones it has threatened to impose on China. So, presumably, Apple could at least minimize the impact of tariffs by relocating its manufacturing to other countries, like India.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果在中国进行大部分制造，而中国是特朗普总统最主要的关税目标。虽然政府曾考虑对大多数国家的进口商品征收关税，但这些与对中国威胁征收的关税相比，显得微不足道。因此，苹果可能至少可以通过将制造转移到其他国家（如印度）来减少关税的影响。</p>
</div><p>Having a more diversified global manufacturing footprint would be a decent way to navigate President Trump's trade agenda, or so Apple might have thought. On May 23, Trump put a dent in these plans. The president said on social media that unless Apple makes iPhones for U.S. customers in the United States, it will have to pay tariffs of at least 25%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>拥有更为多元化的全球制造布局可能是应对特朗普总统贸易议程的一个不错方式，苹果可能是这么认为的。然而，在 5 月 23 日，特朗普对这些计划造成了打击。总统在社交媒体上表示，除非苹果在美国为美国客户制造 iPhone，否则将不得不支付至少 25% 的关税。</p>
</div><p>Trump posted on Truth Social: &#34;I have long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple that I expect their iPhone’s that will be sold in the United States of America will be manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or anyplace else. If that is not the case, a Tariff of at least 25% must be paid by Apple to the U.S. Thank your for your attention to this matter!&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普在 Truth Social 上发布：&#34;我早就通知苹果的蒂姆·库克，我希望他们在美国销售的 iPhone 是在美国制造的，而不是在印度或其他地方。如果不是这样，苹果必须向美国支付至少 25% 的关税。感谢您对此事的关注！&#34;</p>
</div><p>In other words, Apple is free to move its factories to some other country, but unless that country is the United States of America, it will incur the wrath of the current administration and will have to pay up. What could this mean for investors?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，苹果可以自由地将工厂迁移到其他国家，但除非那个国家是美国，否则它将遭到现任政府的愤怒，并且必须支付关税。这对投资者意味着什么？</p>
</div><h2>Can Apple overcome this obstacle?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果能克服这个障碍吗？</h2>
</div><p>President Trump isn't targeting just Apple. He later clarified that this standard would apply to other tech companies, too. But that doesn't make things better for Apple. Shifting production for millions of iPhones to the U.S. would be a logistical nightmare for Apple (if it could do it at all), not to mention, it would vastly increase the company's costs. Under this scenario, Apple would have no choice but to significantly increase its prices. It's challenging to speculate on what the administration will do next, but it's worth noting that there has been a lot of back-and-forth. Trump's tariffs rules change quickly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普并不仅仅针对苹果。他后来澄清说，这一标准也适用于其他科技公司。但这并没有改善苹果的处境。将数百万部 iPhone 的生产转移到美国对苹果来说将是一个后勤噩梦（如果它能做到的话），更不用说这将大幅增加公司的成本。在这种情况下，苹果别无选择，只能大幅提高价格。虽然很难预测政府接下来会做什么，但值得注意的是，特朗普的关税规则变化迅速。</p>
</div><p>Trump previously announced a tech tariff exemption that included smartphones, and now, it seems he has reversed course. The unpredictability and uncertainty of it all are a challenge to Apple, and the market despises uncertainty. Apple stock dropped right after Trump's May 23 post, but has since regained the loss.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普之前宣布了一项包括智能手机在内的科技关税豁免，而现在看来他已经改变了立场。这一切的不确定性和不可预测性对苹果来说是一个挑战，而市场厌恶不确定性。特朗普 5 月 23 日的帖子发布后，苹果股票下跌，但随后又恢复了损失。</p>
</div><p>In my view, despite potential iPhone-related challenges in the short term, Apple's long-term prospects (think a decade or more) hinge more on its services segment. With more than 2.35 billion devices in circulation and high customer loyalty and retention, Apple will continue to generate new monetization ideas, while the current ones, including those in fintech, streaming, and other areas, will grow in prominence in the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，尽管短期内可能面临与 iPhone 相关的挑战，但苹果的长期前景（考虑十年或更长时间）更多地依赖于其服务部门。苹果在流通中的设备超过 23.5 亿台，客户忠诚度和留存率高，苹果将继续产生新的货币化想法，而当前的货币化方式，包括金融科技、流媒体和其他领域，将在长期内变得更加重要。</p>
</div><p>Apple has over a billion paid subscriptions. Its services segment carries far higher margins than other parts of the business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果拥有超过十亿个付费订阅。其服务部门的利润率远高于业务的其他部分。</p>
</div><p>What if Apple does have to incur higher production costs for its iPhones? There are at least three things to remember here. First, being one of the most valuable brand names in the world grants it significant pricing power. Apple's iPhones are already more expensive, generally speaking, than their direct Android competitors. Although there are multiple reasons why that's the case, the company's brand power likely plays a role. So, even if it has to pay steeper tariffs, Apple may be able to pass some of those costs on to customers and avoid significant margin erosion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果苹果确实需要承担更高的 iPhone 生产成本，会发生什么？这里有至少三点需要记住。首先，作为全球最有价值的品牌之一，苹果拥有显著的定价权。一般来说，苹果的 iPhone 已经比直接的安卓竞争对手更贵。虽然这背后有多种原因，但公司的品牌影响力可能起了作用。因此，即使它必须支付更高的关税，苹果也可能能够将部分成本转嫁给客户，从而避免显著的利润侵蚀。</p>
</div><p>Second, considering how unpopular $5,000 smartphones would be, even the current administration might not implement exceedingly steep tariffs and would instead reach a deal with Apple and other tech leaders. Third, there is a decent chance Trump's trade policies won't survive beyond his administration. These factors suggest that Apple's long-term prospects are still attractive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，考虑到 5000 美元的智能手机将会多么不受欢迎，即使是现任政府也可能不会实施过于高额的关税，而是与苹果和其他科技巨头达成协议。第三，特朗普的贸易政策在他任期结束后可能不会继续。这些因素表明，苹果的长期前景仍然具有吸引力。</p>
</div><p>Is valuation a problem? Apple's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 27.9 compared to 27.1 for the information technology industry and 21.5 for the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>. Perhaps the company's forward P/E seems a little steep considering the issues it is facing might cut into its earnings even if it's in line with the industry average. But for investors willing to hold onto its shares for a while, that might not be too much of an issue in 10 years or more. That's why I'd still recommend the stock while it's down 20% from where it started the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>估值是个问题吗？苹果的前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 27.9，而信息技术行业为 27.1，<strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 为 21.5。考虑到它面临的问题可能会削减其收益，尽管与行业平均水平相符，公司的前瞻市盈率似乎有些高。但对于愿意持有其股票一段时间的投资者来说，这在十年或更长时间内可能不是太大的问题。这就是为什么我仍然建议在其股价较年初下跌 20% 时买入该股票。</p>
</div>

President Trump Delivers Worrying News to Apple Stock Investors

- 苹果面临特朗普贸易政策带来的关税风险，可能影响生产成本。  
- 特朗普要求苹果在美国制造 iPhone，否则将面临至少 25% 的关税。  
- 尽管短期挑战存在，苹果长期前景仍看好，服务业务将是关键。

特朗普总统向苹果股票投资者发布了令人担忧的消息