<p>截至目前，<strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.83%) 和 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 0.66%) 是表现最差的 “七大奇迹” 股票，分别下跌了 19% 和 15%。但华尔街预计苹果股票将在未来几个月反弹，而特斯拉股票则可能进一步下跌，具体情况如下：</p>
<ul>
<li>在 50 位分析师中，跟踪苹果的中位目标价为每股 235 美元。这意味着相较于当前每股 202 美元的价格有 16% 的上涨空间。</li>
<li>在 55 位分析师中，跟踪特斯拉的中位目标价为每股 307 美元。这意味着相较于当前每股 343 美元的价格有 10% 的下跌空间。</li>
</ul>
<p>这些预测表明，投资者应该在当前价格下买入苹果股票并卖出特斯拉股票。但我鼓励读者仔细考虑这个决定。就我个人而言，我更愿意持有特斯拉股票。原因如下。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjAzNjkvYnVsbC1hbmQtYmVhci0wLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="448" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjAzNjkvYnVsbC1hbmQtYmVhci0wLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>苹果：华尔街中位目标价暗示 16% 的上涨空间</h2>
<p>苹果通过跨越软件和硬件的工程专长，培养了品牌护城河和定价能力。其美观的设备运行专有操作系统，为用户创造了相对独特的体验，消费者当然愿意为此付费。苹果在第一季度是智能手机销售的领导者。根据 Counterpoint Research，平均每部 iPhone 的售价是平均 <strong>三星</strong> 手机的 2.5 倍。</p>
<p>然而，苹果面临着威胁其未来几个季度盈利增长的逆风。首先，<strong>Alphabet</strong> 目前每年支付苹果超过 200 亿美元，使谷歌成为 Safari 浏览器的默认搜索引擎。然而，一项待决的反垄断诉讼可能会禁止这一做法，在这种情况下，苹果将失去大量高利润的服务收入。</p>
<p>其次，苹果目前正在将 iPhone 生产转移到印度，以避免对中国进口商品的高关税。这让特朗普总统感到不满，他希望这些设备在美国制造。因此，他威胁对在其他地方制造的 iPhone 征收 25% 的关税。即使他选择不执行，来自外国的进口商品的 10% 基础关税仍将对苹果的利润构成逆风。</p>
<p>最后，许多分析师认为该公司最终会将 Apple Intelligence——一套用于新款 iPhone 的生成性人工智能（AI）能力进行货币化，但消费者迄今为止对此并不感兴趣。Deepwater Asset Management 的 Gene Munster 认为，苹果将通过训练自己的大型语言模型来改善该平台，这将需要在 AI 基础设施上进行大量投资。</p>
<p>华尔街预计苹果的收益将在 2026 财年（截至 2026 年 9 月）之前每年增长 6%。这使得当前 28 倍的市盈率显得相当昂贵。更糟糕的是，分析师可能高估了未来的收益。由于反垄断诉讼、关税和对 AI 基础设施的投资，苹果可能在未来几个季度错失目标。</p>
<p>结论是：我认为投资者应该避免购买苹果股票，直到其价格大幅下跌或出现积极的催化因素。此外，持有大量财富在苹果股票中的股东应考虑减持其持仓。</p>
<h2>特斯拉：华尔街中位目标价暗示 10% 的下跌空间</h2>
<p>在第一季度，特斯拉在欧洲和美国的电动车市场份额损失近 10 个百分点，在中国市场份额损失超过 3 个百分点。分析师将需求下降归因于工厂更新（限制了 Model Y 的生产）和首席执行官埃隆·马斯克参与政治。这些都是暂时性问题，因此电动车销售在未来几个季度可能会回暖。</p>
<p>无论如何，特斯拉在自动驾驶和机器人领域有更大且（可以说）更重要的机会。该公司将在本月在奥斯汀推出首个自动驾驶共享（机器人出租车）服务，进入 <strong>优步</strong> 认为的 1 万亿美元市场。同时，特斯拉可能在 2026 年底之前开始向其他公司销售其自动驾驶人形机器人 Optimus。马斯克认为这是一个 10 万亿美元的市场。</p>
<p>华尔街预计特斯拉的收益将在 2026 年前每年增长 14%。这使得当前 153 倍的市盈率显得极其昂贵，这可能解释了为什么大多数分析师预期该股票会下跌。然而，这一共识估计并未考虑到随着公司扩展到新市场，收益增长可能加速的可能性。</p>
<p>结论是：特斯拉股票并不适合所有人。不相信该公司会通过自动驾驶汽车和机器人颠覆出行和劳动力市场的投资者应避免购买该股票。但相信特斯拉能够实现这些机会的投资者应该持有该股票，现在是购买几股的合理时机，尽管估值较高。</p>

<p>华尔街分析师建议基于苹果和特斯拉的表现及未来预测，买入苹果股票并卖出特斯拉股票。预计苹果将反弹，涨幅为 16%，但面临来自反垄断诉讼和进口关税等挑战。相反，特斯拉预计将下跌 10%，尽管在自动驾驶和机器人领域有机会。分析师预测特斯拉的收益将以 14% 的年率增长，但其高估值引发了担忧。投资者在做出决策之前，应考虑对每家公司未来的看法</p>

<p>Year to date, <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.83%) and <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 0.66%) have been the two worst-performing &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; stocks, notching losses of 19% and 15%, respectively. But Wall Street expects Apple shares to rebound in the coming months while Tesla shares fall even further, as detailed below:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，<strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.83%) 和 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 0.66%) 是表现最差的 “七大奇迹” 股票，分别下跌了 19% 和 15%。但华尔街预计苹果股票将在未来几个月反弹，而特斯拉股票则可能进一步下跌，具体情况如下：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Among 50 analysts following Apple, the median target price is $235 per share. That implies 16% upside from the current share price of $202.</li>
<li>Among 55 analysts following Tesla, the median target price is $307 per share. That implies 10% downside from the current share price of $343.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>在 50 位分析师中，跟踪苹果的中位目标价为每股 235 美元。这意味着相较于当前每股 202 美元的价格有 16% 的上涨空间。</li>
<li>在 55 位分析师中，跟踪特斯拉的中位目标价为每股 307 美元。这意味着相较于当前每股 343 美元的价格有 10% 的下跌空间。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Those forecasts suggest investors should buy Apple and sell Tesla at current prices. But I would encourage readers to think carefully about that decision. Personally, I would rather own Tesla. Here's why.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些预测表明，投资者应该在当前价格下买入苹果股票并卖出特斯拉股票。但我鼓励读者仔细考虑这个决定。就我个人而言，我更愿意持有特斯拉股票。原因如下。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjAzNjkvYnVsbC1hbmQtYmVhci0wLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F820369%2Fbull-and-bear-0.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Apple: 16% upside implied by Wall Street's median target price</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果：华尔街中位目标价暗示 16% 的上涨空间</h2>
</div><p>Apple has cultivated a brand moat and pricing power through engineering expertise that spans software and hardware. Its aesthetic devices run proprietary operating systems to create a somewhat unique experience for users, and certainly one consumers will pay for. Apple was the smartphone sales leader in the first quarter. And the average iPhone sold for 2.5 times more than the average <strong>Samsung</strong>, per Counterpoint Research.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果通过跨越软件和硬件的工程专长，培养了品牌护城河和定价能力。其美观的设备运行专有操作系统，为用户创造了相对独特的体验，消费者当然愿意为此付费。苹果在第一季度是智能手机销售的领导者。根据 Counterpoint Research，平均每部 iPhone 的售价是平均 <strong>三星</strong> 手机的 2.5 倍。</p>
</div><p>However, Apple is beset by headwinds that threaten to slow earnings growth in the coming quarters. First, <strong>Alphabet</strong> currently pays Apple north of $20 billion per year to make Google the default search engine in the Safari browser. However, a pending antitrust lawsuit could prohibit that practice, in which case Apple would lose a significant amount of high-margin services revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，苹果面临着威胁其未来几个季度盈利增长的逆风。首先，<strong>Alphabet</strong> 目前每年支付苹果超过 200 亿美元，使谷歌成为 Safari 浏览器的默认搜索引擎。然而，一项待决的反垄断诉讼可能会禁止这一做法，在这种情况下，苹果将失去大量高利润的服务收入。</p>
</div><p>Second, Apple is currently moving iPhone production to India to avoid the high tariffs on Chinese imports. That upset President Trump, who wants those devices made in the United States. So, he threatened a 25% tariff on iPhones made elsewhere. Even if he chooses not to follow through, the 10% baseline tariff on imports from foreign countries will still be headwind to Apple's profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，苹果目前正在将 iPhone 生产转移到印度，以避免对中国进口商品的高关税。这让特朗普总统感到不满，他希望这些设备在美国制造。因此，他威胁对在其他地方制造的 iPhone 征收 25% 的关税。即使他选择不执行，来自外国的进口商品的 10% 基础关税仍将对苹果的利润构成逆风。</p>
</div><p>Finally, many analysts think the company will eventually monetize Apple Intelligence -- a suite of generative artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities for newer iPhones -- but consumers have so far been unimpressed. Gene Munster at Deepwater Asset Management believes Apple will improve the platform by training its own large language models, which will require significant investments in AI infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，许多分析师认为该公司最终会将 Apple Intelligence——一套用于新款 iPhone 的生成性人工智能（AI）能力进行货币化，但消费者迄今为止对此并不感兴趣。Deepwater Asset Management 的 Gene Munster 认为，苹果将通过训练自己的大型语言模型来改善该平台，这将需要在 AI 基础设施上进行大量投资。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street expects Apple's earnings to increase at 6% annually through fiscal 2026, which ends in September 2026. That makes the current valuation of 28 times earnings look quite expensive. Even worse, analysts may be overestimating future earnings. Apple could miss the mark as antitrust lawsuits, tariffs, and investments in AI infrastructure hinder its profits in the coming quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街预计苹果的收益将在 2026 财年（截至 2026 年 9 月）之前每年增长 6%。这使得当前 28 倍的市盈率显得相当昂贵。更糟糕的是，分析师可能高估了未来的收益。由于反垄断诉讼、关税和对 AI 基础设施的投资，苹果可能在未来几个季度错失目标。</p>
</div><p>Here's the bottom line: I think investors should avoid Apple stock until it either trades at a much cheaper price or else positive catalysts develop. Additionally, shareholders with a large percentage of their wealth in Apple should consider trimming their positions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>结论是：我认为投资者应该避免购买苹果股票，直到其价格大幅下跌或出现积极的催化因素。此外，持有大量财富在苹果股票中的股东应考虑减持其持仓。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla: 10% downside implied by Wall Street's median target price</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉：华尔街中位目标价暗示 10% 的下跌空间</h2>
</div><p>In the first quarter, Tesla lost nearly 10 percentage points of market share in electric cars in Europe and the U.S., and it lost more than 3 points of market share in China. Analysts have attributed decreased demand to factory updates (which limited Model Y production) and CEO Elon Musk's involvement in politics. Those were temporary problems, so electric car sales could gain steam in the quarters ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第一季度，特斯拉在欧洲和美国的电动车市场份额损失近 10 个百分点，在中国市场份额损失超过 3 个百分点。分析师将需求下降归因于工厂更新（限制了 Model Y 的生产）和首席执行官埃隆·马斯克参与政治。这些都是暂时性问题，因此电动车销售在未来几个季度可能会回暖。</p>
</div><p>Regardless, Tesla has larger and (arguably) more important opportunities in autonomous driving and robotics. The company will launch its first autonomous ride-sharing (robotaxi) service in Austin this month, entering what <strong>Uber</strong> believes is a $1 trillion market. Meanwhile, Tesla may start selling its autonomous humanoid robot Optimus to other companies as soon as late 2026. Musk sees that as a $10 trillion market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论如何，特斯拉在自动驾驶和机器人领域有更大且（可以说）更重要的机会。该公司将在本月在奥斯汀推出首个自动驾驶共享（机器人出租车）服务，进入 <strong>优步</strong> 认为的 1 万亿美元市场。同时，特斯拉可能在 2026 年底之前开始向其他公司销售其自动驾驶人形机器人 Optimus。马斯克认为这是一个 10 万亿美元的市场。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street expects Tesla's earnings to grow at 14% annually through 2026. That makes the current valuation of 153 time earnings look absurdly expensive, which may explain why most analysts anticipate downside in the stock. However, that consensus estimate does not account for the possible acceleration in earnings growth as the company expands into new markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街预计特斯拉的收益将在 2026 年前每年增长 14%。这使得当前 153 倍的市盈率显得极其昂贵，这可能解释了为什么大多数分析师预期该股票会下跌。然而，这一共识估计并未考虑到随着公司扩展到新市场，收益增长可能加速的可能性。</p>
</div><p>Here's the bottom line: Tesla stock is not for everyone. Investors that don't believe the company will disrupt the mobility and labor markets with autonomous cars and robots should avoid the stock. But investors that believe Tesla will execute on those opportunities should own the stock and now is a reasonable time to buy a few shares despite the rich valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>结论是：特斯拉股票并不适合所有人。不相信该公司会通过自动驾驶汽车和机器人颠覆出行和劳动力市场的投资者应避免购买该股票。但相信特斯拉能够实现这些机会的投资者应该持有该股票，现在是购买几股的合理时机，尽管估值较高。</p>
</div>

Tesla Stock vs. Apple Stock: Wall Street Says Buy One and Sell the Other

- 苹果和特斯拉是 “七大巨头” 中表现最差的两只股票，分别下跌 19% 和 15%。  
- 华尔街预计苹果股价将反弹，而特斯拉股价可能进一步下跌。  
- 投资者应谨慎考虑买入苹果和卖出特斯拉的决策。  

Motley Fool

特斯拉

苹果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

苹果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

苹果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

T-Rex 2X Long Apple Daily Target ETF

Kurv Yield Premium Strategy Apple Aapl ETF

YieldMax AAPL Option Income Strategy ETF

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方两倍做多特斯拉

南方两倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

特斯拉股票与苹果股票：华尔街建议买入其中一个，卖出另一个