<p>在 2023 年至 2024 年间，<strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 2.92%) 的股价飙升超过 800%，但今年却骤然停滞。投资者对其长期前景感到担忧，同时也担心关税可能在短期内对其造成影响。</p>
<p>到目前为止，公司业绩缓解了他们的担忧。英伟达在 2026 财年第一季度（截至 4 月 27 日）的业绩超出预期，股价随之上涨。这种趋势能否持续？让我们看看今天对英伟达股票的 10,000 美元投资在 10 年后能否变成 100 万美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTk3NTIvcXVhbnR1bS1jbG91ZC1pbWFnZS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="400" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTk3NTIvcXVhbnR1bS1jbG91ZC1pbWFnZS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>有人能追上它的领先地位吗？</h2>
<p>英伟达是图形处理单元（GPU）的领导者，这些芯片驱动着像生成性人工智能（AI）和游戏等对计算能力要求高的应用。它在整体市场中占据高达 95% 的份额，尤其是支持生成性 AI 的数据中心市场正在快速扩张。</p>
<p>多年来，它一直是 GPU 领域的领导者，但随着生成性 AI 的发展，其增长显著加速，并持续经历惊人的增长。第一季度销售同比增长 69%，超出分析师预期，非 GAAP（调整后）每股收益（EPS）为 0.81 美元，超过分析师预期的 0.75 美元。</p>
<p>黄仁勋确实发出了一些警告。由于法律限制其向中国发货，英伟达的收入和利润受到影响，并在第一季度因必须报废的货物而产生了 45 亿美元的费用。非 GAAP 毛利率为 61%，而不是 71.3%，如果没有这些限制，EPS 本应为 0.96 美元。从长远来看，黄仁勋担心将美国排除在中国之外会促使中国发展自己的强大 AI 技术。</p>
<p>然而，他认为生成性 AI 将成为人类生活的基本元素。他表示：“随着 AI 代理的普及，对 AI 计算的需求将加速增长。世界各国都在将 AI 视为基础设施——就像电力和互联网一样——而英伟达正处于这一深刻变革的中心。”</p>
<h2>10 年内能增长 100 倍吗？</h2>
<p>要将 10,000 美元变成 100 万美元，英伟达的股价需要增长 100 倍，或 10,000%。在过去 10 年中，英伟达的股价增长超过 24,000%，最初的 10,000 美元投资现在价值超过 240 万美元。英伟达的股价能否在未来 10 年再次实现这一增长？</p>
<p>遗憾的是，答案几乎肯定是否定的。英伟达在过去 12 个月的销售额为 1480 亿美元。去年，收入增长了 114%，但增长速度已经放缓。随着基数的增大，报告这种增长变得更加困难。这就是为什么像 <strong>沃尔玛</strong> 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 这样的美国两大销售公司，尽管是顶尖公司，仍然报告了较低的销售增长（分别为 5.1% 和 11%）。</p>
<p>如果我们假设未来 10 年销售以 30% 的年复合增长率（CAGR）增长，销售额将达到 1.8 万亿美元，这似乎极不可能。更可能的是，随着基数的增长，增长率会放缓。如果在未来 10 年以 20% 的 CAGR 增长，这也不太可能，销售额将达到 8000 亿美元，这在 10 年后可能更为合理。如果保持当前的市销率为 26，则市值将超过 20 万亿美元，即使在 10 年后也似乎不太可能。但即使如此，这也仅是当前市值的约 7 倍，而不是 100 倍。较低的市销率将意味着较低的市值，使得你的投资增长 100 倍的可能性更小。</p>
<p>这并不意味着你今天不应该投资英伟达。作为行业的顶尖公司，它有巨大的增长机会。但要保持合理的预期，不要指望英伟达在下一个十年重复其爆炸性的表现。</p>

英伟达

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英伟达的股票在 2023 年至 2024 年间经历了显著增长，飙升超过 800%，但对其长期未来的担忧依然存在。尽管第一财季表现强劲，但关税和来自中国的竞争等挑战依然存在。要在 2035 年前将 1 万美元的投资变成 100 万美元，英伟达的股票需要增长 10,000%，考虑到当前的市场动态，这种情况不太可能实现。虽然英伟达在 GPU 领域仍然是领导者，并且具有增长潜力，但投资者应对未来的回报保持谨慎的期望</p>

<p>After soaring more than 800% between 2023 and 2024, <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 2.92%) stock came to a screeching halt this year. Investors are worried about its long-term future, and they're also concerned about how tariffs might hurt it in the short term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2023 年至 2024 年间，<strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 2.92%) 的股价飙升超过 800%，但今年却骤然停滞。投资者对其长期前景感到担忧，同时也担心关税可能在短期内对其造成影响。</p>
</div><p>So far, company performance has been easing their fears. Nvidia sailed past expectations in the fiscal 2026 first quarter (ended April 27), and the stock jumped. Can that continue? Let's see whether a $10,000 investment in Nvidia stock today could become $1 million in 10 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，公司业绩缓解了他们的担忧。英伟达在 2026 财年第一季度（截至 4 月 27 日）的业绩超出预期，股价随之上涨。这种趋势能否持续？让我们看看今天对英伟达股票的 10,000 美元投资在 10 年后能否变成 100 万美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTk3NTIvcXVhbnR1bS1jbG91ZC1pbWFnZS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F819752%2Fquantum-cloud-image.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Can anyone catch its lead?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>有人能追上它的领先地位吗？</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia is the leader in graphics processing units (GPU), the chips that drive power-intensive applications like generative artificial intelligence (AI) and gaming. It has as much as 95% of the overall market, and the market, especially for data centers that support generative AI, is expanding rapidly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达是图形处理单元（GPU）的领导者，这些芯片驱动着像生成性人工智能（AI）和游戏等对计算能力要求高的应用。它在整体市场中占据高达 95% 的份额，尤其是支持生成性 AI 的数据中心市场正在快速扩张。</p>
</div><p>It has been a leader in GPUs for years, but its growth accelerated significantly with the development of generative AI, and it continues to experience fantastic growth. Sales increased 69% year over year in the first quarter, beating analyst expectations, and non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings per share (EPS) were $0.81, topping the $0.75 that analysts were expecting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多年来，它一直是 GPU 领域的领导者，但随着生成性 AI 的发展，其增长显著加速，并持续经历惊人的增长。第一季度销售同比增长 69%，超出分析师预期，非 GAAP（调整后）每股收益（EPS）为 0.81 美元，超过分析师预期的 0.75 美元。</p>
</div><p>Huang did give some warnings. Nvidia's top and bottom lines were hit because it's limited by law in what it can ship to China, and it incurred a $4.5 billion charge related to shipments that had to be scrapped in the first quarter. Non-GAAP gross margin was 61% instead of 71.3%, and EPS would have been $0.96. Longer term, Huang is worried that shutting the U.S. out of China gives China an incentive to develop its own strong AI technology.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄仁勋确实发出了一些警告。由于法律限制其向中国发货，英伟达的收入和利润受到影响，并在第一季度因必须报废的货物而产生了 45 亿美元的费用。非 GAAP 毛利率为 61%，而不是 71.3%，如果没有这些限制，EPS 本应为 0.96 美元。从长远来看，黄仁勋担心将美国排除在中国之外会促使中国发展自己的强大 AI 技术。</p>
</div><p>However, he sees generative AI becoming a basic element of human life. &#34;As AI agents become mainstream, the demand for AI computing will accelerate,&#34; he said. &#34;Countries around the world are recognizing AI as essential infrastructure -- just like electricity and the internet -- and Nvidia stands at the center of this profound transformation.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，他认为生成性 AI 将成为人类生活的基本元素。他表示：“随着 AI 代理的普及，对 AI 计算的需求将加速增长。世界各国都在将 AI 视为基础设施——就像电力和互联网一样——而英伟达正处于这一深刻变革的中心。”</p>
</div><h2>100x in 10 years?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>10 年内能增长 100 倍吗？</h2>
</div><p>To turn $10,000 into $1 million, Nvidia stock would need to increase a hundredfold, or 10,000%. Over the past 10 years, Nvidia stock has increased by more than 24,000%, and an initial $10,000 investment would now be worth over $2.4 million. Can Nvidia stock achieve that again over the next 10 years?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要将 10,000 美元变成 100 万美元，英伟达的股价需要增长 100 倍，或 10,000%。在过去 10 年中，英伟达的股价增长超过 24,000%，最初的 10,000 美元投资现在价值超过 240 万美元。英伟达的股价能否在未来 10 年再次实现这一增长？</p>
</div><p>Sadly, the answer is almost definitely no. Nvidia has $148 billion in trailing 12-month sales. Last year, revenue increased 114%, but it's already slowing down. It's simply much, much harder to report that kind of increase as the base gets bigger. That's why companies like <strong>Walmart</strong> and <strong>Amazon</strong>, the two largest in the U.S. by sales, report much lower sales growth (5.1% and 11% respectively last year), even though they're top companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>遗憾的是，答案几乎肯定是否定的。英伟达在过去 12 个月的销售额为 1480 亿美元。去年，收入增长了 114%，但增长速度已经放缓。随着基数的增大，报告这种增长变得更加困难。这就是为什么像 <strong>沃尔玛</strong> 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 这样的美国两大销售公司，尽管是顶尖公司，仍然报告了较低的销售增长（分别为 5.1% 和 11%）。</p>
</div><p>If we imagine that sales grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30% over the next 10 years, sales would reach $1.8 trillion, which seems highly unlikely. It's more likely that as the base grows, the rate will slow. If it grows at a CAGR of 20% over the next 10 years, which is also improbable, it would reach $800 billion in sales, which might be more reasonable in 10 years' time. Keeping its current price-to-sales ratio of 26 constant would lead to a market cap of more than $20 trillion, which even in 10 years doesn't seem likely. But even if it were, it would be only about 7 times the current market cap, not 100. A lower price-to-sales ratio would mean a lower market cap, making it even less likely for your investment to increase a hundredfold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果我们假设未来 10 年销售以 30% 的年复合增长率（CAGR）增长，销售额将达到 1.8 万亿美元，这似乎极不可能。更可能的是，随着基数的增长，增长率会放缓。如果在未来 10 年以 20% 的 CAGR 增长，这也不太可能，销售额将达到 8000 亿美元，这在 10 年后可能更为合理。如果保持当前的市销率为 26，则市值将超过 20 万亿美元，即使在 10 年后也似乎不太可能。但即使如此，这也仅是当前市值的约 7 倍，而不是 100 倍。较低的市销率将意味着较低的市值，使得你的投资增长 100 倍的可能性更小。</p>
</div><p>That doesn't mean you shouldn't invest in Nvidia today. It has massive growth opportunities as the top name in its industry. But keep your expectations in check, and don't expect Nvidia to repeat its explosive performance in the next decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不意味着你今天不应该投资英伟达。作为行业的顶尖公司，它有巨大的增长机会。但要保持合理的预期，不要指望英伟达在下一个十年重复其爆炸性的表现。</p>
</div>

Can $10,000 Invested in Nvidia Stock Today Turn Into $1 Million by 2035?

- Nvidia 股票在 2023 年至 2024 年间上涨超过 800%，但今年停滞不前。  
- 第一季度销售同比增长 69%，超出分析师预期，非 GAAP 每股收益为 0.81 美元。  
- 长期来看，Nvidia 面临中国市场限制，未来增长可能放缓。  

如果今天投资 1 万美元于英伟达的股票，到 2035 年能否增值到 100 万美元？