<p><strong>微软</strong>（MSFT 0.27%）首次在 1998 年 9 月成为全球市值最大的公司。它在不到 18 个月的时间内被取代。但这家软件巨头在 2025 年重新回到了顶峰。</p>
<p>我认为这次微软的统治也不会持续太久。此外，我预测未来十年内，以下三只股票的价值将超过微软。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjAzMzgvZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItd2l0aC0yLXBlb3BsZS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="393" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjAzMzgvZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItd2l0aC0yLXBlb3BsZS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>1. 英伟达</h2>
<p>我怀疑 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 0.51%）很快就会超过微软。这可能在几天或几周内就会发生。英伟达无疑处于最佳位置，市值已经超过 3.3 万亿美元，准备将微软拉下马。</p>
<p>英伟达要想夺回第一的位置需要什么？其实不需要太多。微软业务的任何小问题都可能使英伟达重新获得去年短暂保持的全球市值最大公司的地位。</p>
<p>然而，我认为微软并不一定要出错才能发生这种情况。英伟达有望成为多个人工智能（AI）趋势的最大受益者，尤其是快速采用能够推理的 AI 代理。这些 AI 代理需要巨大的计算能力。英伟达的 GPU 仍然是市场上用于 AI 推理的最强大芯片。</p>
<p>如果英伟达成为首个市值达到 5 万亿美元的公司，我一点也不会感到惊讶。当然，对中国的 AI 芯片出口限制在一定程度上会影响其增长。然而，我认为这种逆风不会阻止英伟达在未来十年内变得更大。</p>
<h2>2. 苹果</h2>
<p><strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL -0.14%）在过去十年中大部分时间里都是全球最大的公司。微软在此期间是其主要竞争对手。尽管苹果的市值现在小于微软和英伟达，但我认为到 2035 年，iPhone 制造商不会排在第三位或更低。</p>
<p>悬在苹果头上的大问题是：公司下一个重大突破产品是什么？苹果手表取得了成功，但与 iPhone 相比并不在同一水平。苹果的 Vision Pro 混合现实头显在商业上表现不佳。其被称为苹果智能的生成 AI 功能也没有提供许多投资者所希望的火花。</p>
<p>我认为智能眼镜可能是苹果期待已久的下一个巨大成功。传言称该公司计划最早在 2026 年底推出首款增强 AI 的眼镜。这些眼镜将与 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 的 Ray-Ban AI 眼镜竞争。</p>
<p>但据报道，苹果也在研发支持增强现实（AR）的智能眼镜。这可能是公司真正的游戏改变者。如果蒂姆·库克和他的团队能够利用 Vision Pro 上使用的一些技术，苹果可能会推出几乎与多年前的 iPhone 一样必不可少的智能眼镜。</p>
<h2>3. 亚马逊</h2>
<p><strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN 0.81%）从未成为全球最大的公司。不过，在未来十年内，它并不一定需要成为最大公司就能超过微软。</p>
<p>不久前，我认为微软能够在未来几年内保持其市值优势，领先于亚马逊。为什么我改变了主意？主要是因为我怀疑亚马逊网络服务（AWS）能够比我之前预期的更强有力地保持在云服务市场的领导地位。</p>
<p>我观点转变的部分原因是微软与 OpenAI 之间的关系似乎在恶化。如果没有 OpenAI 的 ChatGPT，我不相信微软今天会拥有最大的市值。两家公司之间的联系越不紧密，我就越不相信微软 Azure 能够缩小与 AWS 之间的市场份额差距。</p>
<p>不过，我现在对亚马逊更乐观的另一个原因是，该公司继续全力以赴。它的 AI 计划令人印象深刻，包括开发自己的 AI 芯片。该公司对底线的关注正在取得成效。亚马逊还在扩展新业务，最近推出的 Project Kuiper 卫星将提供全球互联网接入，便是一个很好的例子。</p>
<p>当然，亚马逊必须在未来十年内比微软增长得更快，才能使其市值变得更大。然而，我预测这正是将要发生的事情。</p>

<p>文章预测，三只股票——英伟达、苹果和亚马逊——将在未来十年内超越微软的市值。英伟达预计将受益于人工智能趋势，市值可能达到 5 万亿美元。苹果预计将因智能眼镜的潜在突破而反弹，而亚马逊的 AWS 预计将继续保持其云市场的领导地位，得益于强大的人工智能举措和新的业务扩展。作者认为，这些因素将使这些公司在未来几年内超越微软</p>

<p><strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT 0.27%) first became the world's biggest company based on market cap in September 1998. It stayed No. 1 for less than 18 months before being dethroned. But the software giant has clawed its way back to the top in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>微软</strong>（MSFT 0.27%）首次在 1998 年 9 月成为全球市值最大的公司。它在不到 18 个月的时间内被取代。但这家软件巨头在 2025 年重新回到了顶峰。</p>
</div><p>I don't think Microsoft's reign will last very long this time, either. What's more, I predict that the following three stocks will be worth more than Microsoft 10 years from now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为这次微软的统治也不会持续太久。此外，我预测未来十年内，以下三只股票的价值将超过微软。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjAzMzgvZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItd2l0aC0yLXBlb3BsZS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F820338%2Fdata-center-with-2-people.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>1. Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 英伟达</h2>
</div><p>I suspect <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 0.51%) will move past Microsoft quite soon. It could even happen in a matter of days or weeks. Nvidia is certainly in the best position to knock Microsoft off its perch with its market cap already topping $3.3 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我怀疑 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 0.51%）很快就会超过微软。这可能在几天或几周内就会发生。英伟达无疑处于最佳位置，市值已经超过 3.3 万亿美元，准备将微软拉下马。</p>
</div><p>What will it take for Nvidia to take the top spot? Not much. Any hiccup with Microsoft's business could be enough to enable Nvidia to regain the position it briefly held last year as the world's largest company based on market cap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达要想夺回第一的位置需要什么？其实不需要太多。微软业务的任何小问题都可能使英伟达重新获得去年短暂保持的全球市值最大公司的地位。</p>
</div><p>However, I don't think Microsoft has to stumble for it to happen. Nvidia is poised to be the biggest beneficiary of several artificial intelligence (AI) trends, notably including the rapid adoption of AI agents that can reason. These AI agents require enormous computing power. Nvidia's GPUs remain the most powerful chips on the market for AI inference used by AI agents.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，我认为微软并不一定要出错才能发生这种情况。英伟达有望成为多个人工智能（AI）趋势的最大受益者，尤其是快速采用能够推理的 AI 代理。这些 AI 代理需要巨大的计算能力。英伟达的 GPU 仍然是市场上用于 AI 推理的最强大芯片。</p>
</div><p>It won't surprise me in the least if Nvidia becomes the first company with a market cap of $5 trillion. Sure, the restrictions on AI chip exports to China will hurt its growth to some extent. However, I don't think this headwind will keep Nvidia from becoming much larger over the next decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果英伟达成为首个市值达到 5 万亿美元的公司，我一点也不会感到惊讶。当然，对中国的 AI 芯片出口限制在一定程度上会影响其增长。然而，我认为这种逆风不会阻止英伟达在未来十年内变得更大。</p>
</div><h2>2. Apple</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 苹果</h2>
</div><p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.14%) dominated as the world's largest company throughout most of the last 10 years. Microsoft was its main rival for the No. 1 position during this period. Although Apple's market cap is now smaller than both Microsoft's and Nvidia's, I think the iPhone maker won't be in third place or lower by 2035.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL -0.14%）在过去十年中大部分时间里都是全球最大的公司。微软在此期间是其主要竞争对手。尽管苹果的市值现在小于微软和英伟达，但我认为到 2035 年，iPhone 制造商不会排在第三位或更低。</p>
</div><p>The big question hovering over Apple is: What's the next big breakthrough product for the company? Apple Watch has been successful, but it isn't in the same league as the iPhone. Apple's Vision Pro mixed-reality headset has been a commercial disappointment. Its generative AI functionality, branded as Apple Intelligence, hasn't provided the spark that many investors hoped it would, either.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>悬在苹果头上的大问题是：公司下一个重大突破产品是什么？苹果手表取得了成功，但与 iPhone 相比并不在同一水平。苹果的 Vision Pro 混合现实头显在商业上表现不佳。其被称为苹果智能的生成 AI 功能也没有提供许多投资者所希望的火花。</p>
</div><p>I think smart glasses just might be the much-anticipated next huge hit for Apple. Rumors are circulating that the company plans to launch its first AI-enhanced glasses as early as late 2026. These glasses will compete against <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> Ray-Ban AI glasses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为智能眼镜可能是苹果期待已久的下一个巨大成功。传言称该公司计划最早在 2026 年底推出首款增强 AI 的眼镜。这些眼镜将与 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 的 Ray-Ban AI 眼镜竞争。</p>
</div><p>But Apple is also reportedly working on smart glasses that support augmented reality (AR). This could be the real game-changer for the company. If Tim Cook and his team can leverage some of the technology used on Vision Pro, Apple just might be able to launch smart glasses that become nearly as must-have as the iPhone years ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但据报道，苹果也在研发支持增强现实（AR）的智能眼镜。这可能是公司真正的游戏改变者。如果蒂姆·库克和他的团队能够利用 Vision Pro 上使用的一些技术，苹果可能会推出几乎与多年前的 iPhone 一样必不可少的智能眼镜。</p>
</div><h2>3. Amazon</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 亚马逊</h2>
</div><p><strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 0.81%) has never been the world's largest company. It doesn't necessarily have to be to leap past Microsoft over the next 10 years, though.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN 0.81%）从未成为全球最大的公司。不过，在未来十年内，它并不一定需要成为最大公司就能超过微软。</p>
</div><p>It wasn't too long ago that I thought Microsoft would be able to retain its market cap advantage over Amazon for years to come. Why have I changed my mind? Mainly because I suspect that Amazon Web Services (AWS) will be able to hold on to its leadership in the cloud services market more strongly than I anticipated in the past.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不久前，我认为微软能够在未来几年内保持其市值优势，领先于亚马逊。为什么我改变了主意？主要是因为我怀疑亚马逊网络服务（AWS）能够比我之前预期的更强有力地保持在云服务市场的领导地位。</p>
</div><p>Part of my shifting opinion is due to Microsoft's seemingly deteriorating relationship with OpenAI. Without OpenAI's ChatGPT, I don't believe Microsoft would claim the largest market cap today. The less tight the bond between the two companies, the less confidence I have that Microsoft Azure will be able to narrow the market share gap with AWS.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我观点转变的部分原因是微软与 OpenAI 之间的关系似乎在恶化。如果没有 OpenAI 的 ChatGPT，我不相信微软今天会拥有最大的市值。两家公司之间的联系越不紧密，我就越不相信微软 Azure 能够缩小与 AWS 之间的市场份额差距。</p>
</div><p>Another reason why I'm more optimistic about Amazon now, though, is that the company continues to fire on all cylinders. Its AI initiatives are impressive, including the development of its own AI chips. The company's focus on the bottom line is paying off. Amazon is also expanding into new businesses, with the recent launch of its Project Kuiper satellites that will provide global internet access serving as a great example.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，我现在对亚马逊更乐观的另一个原因是，该公司继续全力以赴。它的 AI 计划令人印象深刻，包括开发自己的 AI 芯片。该公司对底线的关注正在取得成效。亚马逊还在扩展新业务，最近推出的 Project Kuiper 卫星将提供全球互联网接入，便是一个很好的例子。</p>
</div><p>Granted, Amazon must grow significantly faster than Microsoft over the next 10 years for its market cap to become larger. However, I predict that's exactly what will happen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，亚马逊必须在未来十年内比微软增长得更快，才能使其市值变得更大。然而，我预测这正是将要发生的事情。</p>
</div>

Prediction: 3 Stocks That'll Be Worth More Than Microsoft 10 Years From Now

- 微软在 2025 年重新成为全球市值最高公司，但预计其地位不持久。  
- 三家公司可能在未来十年超越微软，包括英伟达、苹果和亚马逊。  
- 英伟达受益于 AI 趋势，苹果有望推出智能眼镜，亚马逊云服务持续领先。  

预测：未来十年内价值将超过微软的三只股票