<p>科技和消费巨头 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.14%) 的股价今年下跌了约 20%。这并不是投资者通常会期待的股票表现，除非科技行业出现大规模抛售。</p>
<p>但今年并非如此。相反，该股票的表现低于市场，并且没有给投资者带来对短期内反转的乐观理由。</p>
<p>尽管围绕该股票存在许多负面情绪，但这仍然是苹果——全球最强大、最具标志性和最具识别度的品牌之一。如果它正在崩溃，您是否应该考虑增持该股票？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjAwOTAvZnJ1c3RyYXRlZC1wZW9wbGUtbG9va2luZy1hdC1hLWxhcHRvcC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="467" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjAwOTAvZnJ1c3RyYXRlZC1wZW9wbGUtbG9va2luZy1hdC1hLWxhcHRvcC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>什么因素影响了苹果的估值？</h2>
<p>不幸的是，苹果目前面临着不少逆风。最大的一个问题可能是其人工智能（AI）功能在 iPhone 上的缓慢推出。苹果推迟了一些更先进的 AI 功能的发布，直到明年。考虑到其竞争对手已经在市场上推出了 AI 驱动的手机，这种情况显得尤为棘手。苹果专注于隐私和数据安全，这在 AI 领域越来越重要。但投资者仍然不为所动。</p>
<p>另一个问题是，苹果在关税方面面临很大风险，因为它在中国生产绝大多数产品。该公司正在努力将其在美国销售的 iPhone 的生产转移到印度，但可能要到明年年底才能将产能提升到足以满足美国需求并减少对中国的依赖。</p>
<p>但关税的不确定性是一个大问号，因为今年关税率发生了显著变化。投资者发现，出售苹果的股票比担心这些因素要容易得多。</p>
<h2>这只股票是否变得便宜？</h2>
<p>尽管今年开局不佳，苹果的市值仍然约为 3 万亿美元。但由于估值较低，它的交易市盈率为 31 倍，略高于其五年平均水平。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/37708bb59bab49ecf9378df6c99dd7b9.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/37708bb59bab49ecf9378df6c99dd7b9.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>虽然对于全球最有价值的公司之一来说，抛售似乎很陡峭，但苹果的股价需要再下跌 15%，才能接近其 52 周低点 169.21 美元。</p>
<p>支付 31 倍的市盈率对于成长股来说可能是可以接受的，但苹果最新的业绩并不令人印象深刻。在今年前三个月，该公司的 iPhone 销售仅增长了不到 2%，达到 468 亿美元。未来的需求可能不会大幅增强，尤其是如果消费者因经济放缓而变得更加关注价格，并需要收紧家庭预算。</p>
<h2>您应该购买苹果的股票吗？</h2>
<p>苹果的业务仍然表现良好，上个季度利润为 248 亿美元。但问题在于，在当前的估值下，您仍然需要为一家仅实现个位数增长的企业支付高倍数。而且，随着可能的放缓临近，这使得现在购买苹果股票的理由更加难以成立。</p>
<p>这仍然可以是一个良好的长期投资，但我不会考虑购买苹果的股票，除非其价值进一步下跌。由于其 AI 部署不佳和增长缓慢，投资者应该要求该股票有更大的折扣，因为该业务面临许多不确定性。虽然从长远来看，苹果并不一定是一个糟糕的投资，但现在有更好的成长股可供考虑。</p>

苹果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

苹果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

苹果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>苹果公司的股票（AAPL）今年下跌了约 20%，在对其缓慢的人工智能推广和关税风险的担忧中表现不佳。尽管市值达到 3 万亿美元，且上个季度利润为 248 亿美元，但其市盈率为 31 倍的估值引发了对其增长潜力的质疑。分析师建议，尽管苹果仍然是一个强大的品牌，但投资者应该等待股票价格进一步下跌后再考虑买入，因为其他地方可能存在更好的增长机会</p>

<p>Shares of tech and consumer giant <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.14%) are down around 20% this year. That's not the type of performance investors would normally expect to see from the stock, unless there was a wide-scale sell-off in the tech sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>科技和消费巨头 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.14%) 的股价今年下跌了约 20%。这并不是投资者通常会期待的股票表现，除非科技行业出现大规模抛售。</p>
</div><p>That's not the case this year. Instead, the stock has been underperforming the market and it hasn't been giving investors a reason to be optimistic about a turnaround taking place anytime soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但今年并非如此。相反，该股票的表现低于市场，并且没有给投资者带来对短期内反转的乐观理由。</p>
</div><p>But despite all the negativity surrounding the stock, this is still Apple -- one of the strongest, most iconic, and most recognizable brands in the world. If it's crashing, should you consider loading up on the stock?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管围绕该股票存在许多负面情绪，但这仍然是苹果——全球最强大、最具标志性和最具识别度的品牌之一。如果它正在崩溃，您是否应该考虑增持该股票？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjAwOTAvZnJ1c3RyYXRlZC1wZW9wbGUtbG9va2luZy1hdC1hLWxhcHRvcC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F820090%2Ffrustrated-people-looking-at-a-laptop.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>What's taking a bite out of Apple's valuation?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>什么因素影响了苹果的估值？</h2>
</div><p>There are, unfortunately, no shortage of headwinds facing Apple's business right now. The biggest one is arguably the slow rollout of its artificial intelligence (AI) features for its iPhones. Apple has pushed back on the release of some of its more advanced AI features until next year. It's a problematic situation given that its rivals already have AI-powered phones available on the market. Apple is focusing on privacy and keeping data secure, which is an increasingly important topic when it comes to AI. But investors still aren't impressed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不幸的是，苹果目前面临着不少逆风。最大的一个问题可能是其人工智能（AI）功能在 iPhone 上的缓慢推出。苹果推迟了一些更先进的 AI 功能的发布，直到明年。考虑到其竞争对手已经在市场上推出了 AI 驱动的手机，这种情况显得尤为棘手。苹果专注于隐私和数据安全，这在 AI 领域越来越重要。但投资者仍然不为所动。</p>
</div><p>Another problem is that Apple faces a lot of exposure to tariffs as it makes the vast majority of its products in China. The company is working on shifting production for iPhones that it sells in the U.S. to India, but it could take until the end of next year before capacity is ramped up sufficiently to accommodate U.S. demand and to minimize its Chinese exposure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个问题是，苹果在关税方面面临很大风险，因为它在中国生产绝大多数产品。该公司正在努力将其在美国销售的 iPhone 的生产转移到印度，但可能要到明年年底才能将产能提升到足以满足美国需求并减少对中国的依赖。</p>
</div><p>But the uncertainty around tariffs is a big question mark as tariff rates have changed significantly this year. Investors are finding it easier to simply sell Apple's stock than to worry about all these factors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但关税的不确定性是一个大问号，因为今年关税率发生了显著变化。投资者发现，出售苹果的股票比担心这些因素要容易得多。</p>
</div><h2>Has the stock become a cheap buy?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这只股票是否变得便宜？</h2>
</div><p>Apple is still around a $3 trillion market cap despite its poor start this year. But with a lower valuation, it's trading at 31 times its trailing earnings, which is now only slightly above its five-year average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管今年开局不佳，苹果的市值仍然约为 3 万亿美元。但由于估值较低，它的交易市盈率为 31 倍，略高于其五年平均水平。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/37708bb59bab49ecf9378df6c99dd7b9.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/37708bb59bab49ecf9378df6c99dd7b9.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>While the sell-off may seem steep for one of the most valuable companies in the world, Apple would need to decline another 15% before getting near its 52-week low of $169.21.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然对于全球最有价值的公司之一来说，抛售似乎很陡峭，但苹果的股价需要再下跌 15%，才能接近其 52 周低点 169.21 美元。</p>
</div><p>Paying 31 times earnings may be acceptable for a growth stock, but Apple's latest numbers weren't all that impressive. During the first three months of the year, the company's iPhone sales increased by just under 2% to $46.8 billion. Demand in the future may not get a whole lot stronger, either, especially if consumers become more price conscious due to concerns about a slowdown in the economy and need to tighten up their household budgets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>支付 31 倍的市盈率对于成长股来说可能是可以接受的，但苹果最新的业绩并不令人印象深刻。在今年前三个月，该公司的 iPhone 销售仅增长了不到 2%，达到 468 亿美元。未来的需求可能不会大幅增强，尤其是如果消费者因经济放缓而变得更加关注价格，并需要收紧家庭预算。</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy Apple's stock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>您应该购买苹果的股票吗？</h2>
</div><p>Apple's business is still doing well as it posted a profit of $24.8 billion last quarter. But the problem is that at its current valuation, you would still be paying a high multiple for a business that's growing in just single digits. And with a possible slowdown looming, that makes it even harder to justify buying Apple's stock right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果的业务仍然表现良好，上个季度利润为 248 亿美元。但问题在于，在当前的估值下，您仍然需要为一家仅实现个位数增长的企业支付高倍数。而且，随着可能的放缓临近，这使得现在购买苹果股票的理由更加难以成立。</p>
</div><p>This can still be a good long-term buy but I wouldn't consider buying shares of Apple unless it were to fall further in value. Due to its poor AI deployment and slow growth, investors should demand more of a discount for the stock as the business is facing a lot of uncertainty. While Apple isn't necessarily a bad investment over the long haul, there are better growth stocks to consider right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这仍然可以是一个良好的长期投资，但我不会考虑购买苹果的股票，除非其价值进一步下跌。由于其 AI 部署不佳和增长缓慢，投资者应该要求该股票有更大的折扣，因为该业务面临许多不确定性。虽然从长远来看，苹果并不一定是一个糟糕的投资，但现在有更好的成长股可供考虑。</p>
</div>

Is Apple Stock a Bad-News Buy?

- 苹果公司股价今年下跌约 20%，表现不佳。  
- 主要原因包括人工智能功能推出缓慢和关税不确定性。  
- 尽管盈利良好，但高估值和增长乏力使得投资者需谨慎。

苹果股票是否在坏消息中成为买入机会？