<p><strong>科尔士</strong>(KSS 1.11%) 正在经历其 63 年历史上可能最艰难的时期。由于销售下滑，这家百货巨头的股价今年迄今已暴跌 42%，考验着零售商的市场相关性。</p>
<p>尽管面临这些挑战，公司仍保持盈利，并正在推进一项可能引发股价反弹的重组战略。近期的疲软是否使科尔士成为现在购买的清仓特价商品，还是将其放在分期付款中更为明智？</p>
<p>让我们探讨一下这只股票在一年后可能的表现。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjAyNTIva29obHMtc3RvY2stb3V0bG9vay0yMDI1LXR1cm5hcm91bmQuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjAyNTIva29obHMtc3RvY2stb3V0bG9vay0yMDI1LXR1cm5hcm91bmQuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>2025 年的动荡开局</h2>
<p>科尔士以其独特的私人品牌和主要时尚品牌的组合而闻名，价格实惠。尽管这一模式赢得了忠实的顾客群体，但公司却陷入了消费支出环境的变化中，购物者面临着紧张的可支配支出预算。该零售商现在似乎在激烈的竞争中难以维持市场份额，面临来自其他商店和电子商务平台的强大压力。</p>
<p>今年，最新的逆风是特朗普政府实施的新关税，这迫使科尔士调整其库存管理并多样化其供应链以减轻影响。公司还因内部调查而解雇了前首席执行官阿什利·布坎南（Ashley Buchanan），这也给公司带来了困扰。</p>
<p>在第一季度（截至 5 月 3 日），收入同比下降 4.1%，可比销售下降 3.9%，其数字业务表现不佳。如果说结果中有一点好消息，那就是控制成本和精简运营的努力使每股净亏损从去年的 0.24 美元缩小至 0.13 美元。</p>
<p>对于整个年度，科尔士预计销售将进一步疲软，目标是年净销售额下降 5% 至 7%。如果这一中间估计得到确认，将比 2024 年 7.2% 的下降有所改善，但 2025 年每股收益（EPS）预计在 0.10 美元至 0.60 美元之间，低于去年的 0.98 美元。在这一点上，值得注意的是，即使面临持续的困难，科尔士预计今年仍将盈利。</p>
<p>最终，新任临时首席执行官迈克尔·本德（Michael Bender）面临着大量工作，以修复公司的信誉并修复这家曾经行业领先零售商的众多破损部分。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指标</th>
<th>2024</th>
<th>2025</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>可比销售增长（同比）</td>
<td>(6.5%)</td>
<td>(4%) 至 (6%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>净销售增长（同比）</td>
<td>(7.2%)</td>
<td>(5%) 至 (7%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>营业利润率</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.2% 至 2.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>每股收益</td>
<td>$0.98</td>
<td>$0.10 至 $0.60</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>来源：科尔士公司。同比 = 年同比。</p>
<h2>科尔士的重组计划</h2>
<p>科尔士正在实施一项全面计划，以稳定其财务状况并改善基础，以启动长期增长。为此，公司专注于减少债务并重建现金储备。</p>
<p>关键一步是今年早些时候宣布的削减股息，将季度支付从每股 0.50 美元减少至 0.125 美元。新的股息仍为投资者提供了 6.1% 的诱人收益率，并将每年为公司节省约 1.64 亿美元的现金，这将帮助其应对当前 21 亿美元的资产负债表债务。</p>
<p>此外，科尔士正在改进其购物体验，以吸引顾客回到其商店和网站。今年覆盖 613 个地点的重要店面刷新计划应能提升全渠道体验，旨在使购物更加吸引人和无缝。公司还在调整产品组合，以更好地满足顾客需求，重点关注像珠宝这样的高价值品类，该品类在增长中表现出色。</p>
<p>此外，科尔士正在扩大与美容产品专家 Sephora 的合作，完成在其 1100 个地点推出的店中店，并显示出良好的结果。通过优化其营销信息并突出其核心优势，科尔士旨在重新建立品牌吸引力，并重新回到可持续盈利增长的轨道上。</p>
<h2>我的预测：不确定性将使股价波动</h2>
<p>在我看来，现在购买科尔士的股票还为时尚早，因为其众多不确定性增加了在增长持续失望的情况下进一步下跌的风险。除了科尔士诱人的高收益股息外，我认为明智的做法是投资者暂时避免该股票，因为我预测该股将保持波动，并可能在明年此时以更低的价格交易。</p>

科尔士百货

<p>科尔士百货 (KSS) 面临重大挑战，今年股价下跌 42%，销售额下降且竞争加剧。尽管公司实施了扭转战略并预计将实现盈利，但预计 2025 年年净销售额将下降 5-7%。新任临时首席执行官迈克尔·本德 (Michael Bender) 的任务是恢复公司的信誉并稳定财务，包括削减股息以每年节省 1.64 亿美元。虽然科尔士正在改造购物体验并扩大合作伙伴关系，但不确定性依然存在，导致市场预测未来一年股价将继续波动并可能下跌</p>

<p><strong>Kohl's</strong>(KSS 1.11%) is navigating what may be the most difficult period in its 63-year history. Shares of the department store giant have plummeted 42% year to date, amid falling sales -- testing the retailer's relevance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>科尔士</strong>(KSS 1.11%) 正在经历其 63 年历史上可能最艰难的时期。由于销售下滑，这家百货巨头的股价今年迄今已暴跌 42%，考验着零售商的市场相关性。</p>
</div><p>Despite these challenges, the company remains profitable and is pushing forward with a turnaround strategy that may spark a stock price rebound. Does the recent weakness make Kohl's a clearance-rack bargain to buy now, or is keeping it in layaway the more prudent move?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管面临这些挑战，公司仍保持盈利，并正在推进一项可能引发股价反弹的重组战略。近期的疲软是否使科尔士成为现在购买的清仓特价商品，还是将其放在分期付款中更为明智？</p>
</div><p>Let's explore where the stock might be in a year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们探讨一下这只股票在一年后可能的表现。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjAyNTIva29obHMtc3RvY2stb3V0bG9vay0yMDI1LXR1cm5hcm91bmQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F820252%2Fkohls-stock-outlook-2025-turnaround.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>A turbulent start to 2025</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2025 年的动荡开局</h2>
</div><p>Kohl's is recognized for its unique blend of private-label and major fashion brands at affordable prices. Even as the model commands a loyal customer following, the company has been caught in a shifting consumer spending environment, with shoppers facing stretched discretionary spending budgets. The retailer now appears to be struggling to maintain its market share against intense competition from other stores and e-commerce players.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>科尔士以其独特的私人品牌和主要时尚品牌的组合而闻名，价格实惠。尽管这一模式赢得了忠实的顾客群体，但公司却陷入了消费支出环境的变化中，购物者面临着紧张的可支配支出预算。该零售商现在似乎在激烈的竞争中难以维持市场份额，面临来自其他商店和电子商务平台的强大压力。</p>
</div><p>This year, the latest headwind is the new tariffs on imported goods implemented by the Trump administration, which have forced Kohl's to adjust its inventory management and diversify its supply chain to mitigate the impact. The company has also been marred by corporate dysfunction, firing its former CEO Ashley Buchanan in early May following an internal investigation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年，最新的逆风是特朗普政府实施的新关税，这迫使科尔士调整其库存管理并多样化其供应链以减轻影响。公司还因内部调查而解雇了前首席执行官阿什利·布坎南（Ashley Buchanan），这也给公司带来了困扰。</p>
</div><p>In the first quarter (ended May 3), revenue fell by 4.1% year over year, reflecting a 3.9% decline in comparable sales, with its digital business underperforming. If there is a silver lining to the results, efforts to control costs and streamline operations allowed the net loss of $0.13 per share to narrow compared to a $0.24 loss in the prior-year quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第一季度（截至 5 月 3 日），收入同比下降 4.1%，可比销售下降 3.9%，其数字业务表现不佳。如果说结果中有一点好消息，那就是控制成本和精简运营的努力使每股净亏损从去年的 0.24 美元缩小至 0.13 美元。</p>
</div><p>For the full year, Kohl's expects further sales weakness, targeting a decline in annual net sales between 5% and 7%. While that estimate at the midpoint, if confirmed, would mark a modest improvement compared to the 7.2% drop in 2024, the projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 of between $0.10 and $0.60 is below the $0.98 result last year. On this point, it's notable that even with ongoing difficulties, Kohl's is expected to be profitable this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于整个年度，科尔士预计销售将进一步疲软，目标是年净销售额下降 5% 至 7%。如果这一中间估计得到确认，将比 2024 年 7.2% 的下降有所改善，但 2025 年每股收益（EPS）预计在 0.10 美元至 0.60 美元之间，低于去年的 0.98 美元。在这一点上，值得注意的是，即使面临持续的困难，科尔士预计今年仍将盈利。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, the new interim CEO, Michael Bender, has a lot of work ahead to repair the company's credibility and fix the many broken parts of this once industry-leading retailer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，新任临时首席执行官迈克尔·本德（Michael Bender）面临着大量工作，以修复公司的信誉并修复这家曾经行业领先零售商的众多破损部分。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Metric</th>
<th>2024</th>
<th>2025</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Comparable sales growth (YOY)</td>
<td>(6.5%)</td>
<td>(4%) to (6%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Net sales growth (YOY)</td>
<td>(7.2%)</td>
<td>(5%) to (7%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Operating margin</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.2% to 2.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EPS</td>
<td>$0.98</td>
<td>$0.10 to $0.60</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指标</th>
<th>2024</th>
<th>2025</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>可比销售增长（同比）</td>
<td>(6.5%)</td>
<td>(4%) 至 (6%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>净销售增长（同比）</td>
<td>(7.2%)</td>
<td>(5%) 至 (7%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>营业利润率</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.2% 至 2.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>每股收益</td>
<td>$0.98</td>
<td>$0.10 至 $0.60</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Source: Kohl's Corp. YOY = year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：科尔士公司。同比 = 年同比。</p>
</div><h2>Kohl's turnaround plan</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>科尔士的重组计划</h2>
</div><p>Kohl's is implementing a comprehensive plan to stabilize its finances and improve its foundation to kick-start growth over the long run. To achieve this, the company is focused on reducing debt and rebuilding its cash position.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>科尔士正在实施一项全面计划，以稳定其财务状况并改善基础，以启动长期增长。为此，公司专注于减少债务并重建现金储备。</p>
</div><p>A key step was the dividend cut announced earlier this year, reducing the quarterly payment to $0.125 per share from the previous $0.50 per-share rate. The new dividend still offers investors a compelling 6.1% yield, and it will also save the company approximately $164 million in cash annually, which will help it address its current $2.1 billion in balance sheet debt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关键一步是今年早些时候宣布的削减股息，将季度支付从每股 0.50 美元减少至 0.125 美元。新的股息仍为投资者提供了 6.1% 的诱人收益率，并将每年为公司节省约 1.64 亿美元的现金，这将帮助其应对当前 21 亿美元的资产负债表债务。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, Kohl's is revamping its shopping experience to attract customers back to its stores and website. A significant store refresh initiative covering 613 locations this year should enhance the omnichannel experience, intended to make shopping more engaging and seamless. The company is also adjusting its product mix to better meet customer needs, with a focus on high-value categories like jewelry, which has been a rare bright spot with positive growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，科尔士正在改进其购物体验，以吸引顾客回到其商店和网站。今年覆盖 613 个地点的重要店面刷新计划应能提升全渠道体验，旨在使购物更加吸引人和无缝。公司还在调整产品组合，以更好地满足顾客需求，重点关注像珠宝这样的高价值品类，该品类在增长中表现出色。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, Kohl's is expanding its partnership with beauty products specialist Sephora, completing a rollout of shop-in-shops across its 1,100 locations and showing promising results. By refining its marketing messaging and highlighting its core strengths, Kohl's aims to reestablish its brand appeal and get back on track for sustainably profitable growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，科尔士正在扩大与美容产品专家 Sephora 的合作，完成在其 1100 个地点推出的店中店，并显示出良好的结果。通过优化其营销信息并突出其核心优势，科尔士旨在重新建立品牌吸引力，并重新回到可持续盈利增长的轨道上。</p>
</div><h2>My prediction: Uncertainties will keep shares volatile</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>我的预测：不确定性将使股价波动</h2>
</div><p>In my view, it's too early to buy Kohl's stock with conviction, as its numerous uncertainties add to the risk of further downside in a scenario where growth continues to disappoint. Beyond Kohl's temptingly high-yielding dividend, I believe the prudent move is for investors to avoid it for now, as I predict the stock will remain volatile and could be trading at a lower price this time next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，现在购买科尔士的股票还为时尚早，因为其众多不确定性增加了在增长持续失望的情况下进一步下跌的风险。除了科尔士诱人的高收益股息外，我认为明智的做法是投资者暂时避免该股票，因为我预测该股将保持波动，并可能在明年此时以更低的价格交易。</p>
</div>

科尔士百货的股票在一年后会处于什么位置？