<p>在过去的三十多年里，投资者始终有一个或多个颠覆性的创新或趋势吸引他们的注意。尽管股票拆分的狂热在 2024 年对华尔街一些最具影响力的企业的估值提升起到了决定性作用，但人工智能（AI）的出现却在过去两年中吸引了投资界的资本和想象力。</p>
<p>在最简单的形式下，人工智能赋予软件和系统在没有人类监督的情况下做出瞬时决策的能力。这项技术的应用范围广泛，普华永道的分析师认为，到本世纪末，它将为全球经济增加 15.7 万亿美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA1MTkvd29tYW4tYXJ0aWZpY2lhbC1pbnRlbGxpZ2VuY2UtYWktdmlydHVhbC1hZ2VudC1jb21wdXRlci1jbG91ZC1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="400" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA1MTkvd29tYW4tYXJ0aWZpY2lhbC1pbnRlbGxpZ2VuY2UtYWktdmlydHVhbC1hZ2VudC1jb21wdXRlci1jbG91ZC1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>在如此庞大的可寻址市场中，有许多公司有机会成为长期赢家。但就目前而言，没有哪家公司比半导体巨头 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA -1.36%）更直接地受益于人工智能革命。</p>
<p>尽管绝大多数华尔街分析师和普通投资者相信 Nvidia 的股票将会上涨，但最近达成的一个可疑里程碑可能会给这只股票带来麻烦。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 成为华尔街最大上市公司的崛起得益于其 AI-GPU 的主导地位</h2>
<p>但在深入探讨 Nvidia 最新的里程碑是否对投资者构成问题之前，重要的是要奠定 Nvidia 如何成为华尔街最有价值的上市公司的基础。</p>
<p>尽管 Nvidia 一直是用于游戏和加密货币挖掘的图形处理单元（GPU）的关键供应商，但其市值超过 3 万亿美元的增长是由于企业对其 Hopper（H100）GPU 和下一代 Blackwell GPU 架构的强烈需求。其硬件已成为 AI 加速数据中心的 “大脑”，Hopper 和 Blackwell 负责训练大型语言模型（LLMs）并监督生成性 AI 解决方案。</p>
<p>首席执行官黄仁勋设定了每年推出一款新 AI-GPU 的雄心勃勃的目标。Hopper 和 Blackwell 之后，Blackwell Ultra 将在今年晚些时候推出，Vera Rubin 将在 2026 年下半年推出，Vera Rubin Ultra 将在 2027 年下半年推出。黄仁勋愿意在创新上大力投资，应该能巩固 Nvidia 的硬件在数据中心计算能力中的领先地位。</p>
<p>此外，Nvidia 明显受益于 AI-GPU 的需求超过供应。当某种商品或服务的需求大于其供应时，该商品或服务的价格将上涨，直到需求减弱。在 2024 年初，Nvidia 的 Hopper 芯片售价超过 4 万美元，显著高于其直接竞争对手 <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 为其 Instinct AI 加速芯片定的 1 万到 1.5 万美元的价格。</p>
<p>Nvidia 的 CUDA 软件平台同样不可或缺。CUDA 是开发者用来构建 LLMs 并最大化其 Nvidia GPU 计算潜力的工具包。可以将 CUDA 视为一个保护伞，将客户留在 Nvidia 高利润产品和服务的生态系统中。</p>
<p>关键在于，Nvidia 并不是偶然成为最大的上市公司。它之所以能登顶，是因为它在自互联网出现以来最热门的趋势中交付了成果。</p>
<h2>这是一个投资者不应忽视的警告</h2>
<p>然而，尽管 Nvidia 的股票自 2023 年初以来飙升了近 870%，但对 Nvidia 来说，情况可能并不完美。虽然我之前指出了 Nvidia 的一些潜在阻力（稍后我会简要提及这些阻力），但其最新的可疑里程碑可能是对投资者的最大警告。</p>
<p>6 月 3 日标志着首席财务官 Colette Kress 向证券交易委员会（SEC）提交 Form 4 的确切四年半（54 个月）时间，表明她的两个儿子间接购买了各 100 股 Nvidia 股票（合计 200 股）。2020 年 12 月 3 日是任何 Nvidia 内部人士最后一次购买其公司股票。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA1MTkvaW52ZXN0b3ItcHJlc3Npbmctc2VsbC1idXR0b24tZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA1MTkvaW52ZXN0b3ItcHJlc3Npbmctc2VsbC1idXR0b24tZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>在过去的 54 个月中，共有 170 份 Form 4 向 SEC 提交，概述了公司高管和董事的销售情况。在过去四年中，内部人士累计抛售了超过 33.5 亿美元的 Nvidia 股票。</p>
<p>坦率地说，并非所有内部人士的卖出活动都是坏消息。在高知名度的上市公司中，执行补偿的绝大部分通常以股票期权和/或普通股的形式存在（其中一些可能会随着时间的推移而归属）。内部人士会出售部分持股或行使股票期权以支付联邦和/或州税。这种类型的卖出并不令人担忧。</p>
<p>与此同时，内部人士购买自己公司股票的唯一原因就是：他们相信股票会涨。可以说，没有人比公司的管理团队和董事会更了解公司。如果在过去 54 个月中没有一位内部人士愿意购买一股 Nvidia 股票，投资者为什么应该对 Nvidia 股票上涨感到信心呢？</p>
<p>内部人士完全没有购买行为，加上持续的内部人士卖出（尤其是在 2024 年夏季），表明 Nvidia 股票可能已达到顶峰。</p>
<h2>但等等——还有更多</h2>
<p>正如之前提到的，内部人士的卖出并不是华尔街的 AI 宠儿所面临的唯一阻力。</p>
<p>例如，竞争压力很可能已经并将继续对英伟达的毛利率产生影响。虽然大多数投资者关注的是直接竞争对手如 AMD 和中国华为的生产提升，但更大的担忧在于，随着许多主要客户开始内部开发自己的 AI-GPU，未来对英伟达硬件的需求可能会如何。这些成本显著更低且更易获得的硬件解决方案可能会减少英伟达未来的机会。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1071351afc424120ff0271a1e3d72900.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1071351afc424120ff0271a1e3d72900.png"/></p>
<p>竞争压力的增加对英伟达的高毛利率造成了影响。NVDA 毛利率（季度）数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<p>进一步说，目前尚不清楚英伟达的激进创新计划是否会帮助或阻碍其销售。一方面，每年推出一款新的 AI 芯片使英伟达有理由对其 AI-GPU 收取溢价。另一方面，这也存在迅速贬值前一代芯片并推迟升级周期的风险。</p>
<p>在监管方面，英伟达也没有得到太多帮助。从三年前乔·拜登政府开始，到唐纳德·特朗普总统任内，英伟达的多款高性能芯片被限制出口到中国。这个世界第二大经济体一直为英伟达创造数十亿美元的季度销售额。</p>
<p>最后但同样重要的是，历史相关性让人对英伟达感到担忧。自互联网诞生以来的三十多年里，每一次颠覆性创新都经历过早期泡沫破裂事件。这是因为投资者持续高估了颠覆性技术或趋势的采用率和早期阶段的实用性。</p>
<p>大多数企业在优化其 AI 解决方案方面还远未达到，甚至没有产生正的 AI 投资回报。这表明人工智能可能是下一个即将破裂的泡沫。</p>
<p>这些因素的聚合确实表明投资者有理由感到担忧。</p>

英伟达

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英伟达已成为华尔街最大的上市公司，这得益于其在人工智能 GPU 领域的主导地位和显著的市场需求。然而，一个令人担忧的趋势出现了：在过去四年中，没有任何内部人士购买过英伟达的股票，而高管们则出售了超过 33.5 亿美元的股票。这对投资者来说是一个警示信号，尽管英伟达的股票在 2023 年飙升了近 870%。分析师对英伟达的未来仍持乐观态度，但缺乏内部人士的购买可能预示着潜在的麻烦</p>

<p>For more than three decades, investors have consistently had one or more game-changing innovations or trends to capture their attention at any given time. Though stock-split euphoria played a decisive role in lifting the valuations of some of Wall Street's most-influential businesses in 2024, it's the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) that's captivated the capital and imagination of the investing community for more than two years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去的三十多年里，投资者始终有一个或多个颠覆性的创新或趋势吸引他们的注意。尽管股票拆分的狂热在 2024 年对华尔街一些最具影响力的企业的估值提升起到了决定性作用，但人工智能（AI）的出现却在过去两年中吸引了投资界的资本和想象力。</p>
</div><p>In its simplest form, AI empowers software and systems with the ability to make split-second decisions without human oversight. The application of this technology is so broad-reaching that the analysts at PwC believe it'll add $15.7 trillion to the global economy by the turn of the decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最简单的形式下，人工智能赋予软件和系统在没有人类监督的情况下做出瞬时决策的能力。这项技术的应用范围广泛，普华永道的分析师认为，到本世纪末，它将为全球经济增加 15.7 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA1MTkvd29tYW4tYXJ0aWZpY2lhbC1pbnRlbGxpZ2VuY2UtYWktdmlydHVhbC1hZ2VudC1jb21wdXRlci1jbG91ZC1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F820519%2Fwoman-artificial-intelligence-ai-virtual-agent-computer-cloud-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>With an addressable market this large, there's room for a laundry list of companies to be long-term winners. But as things stand now, no company has been a more-direct beneficiary of the AI revolution than semiconductor titan <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -1.36%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在如此庞大的可寻址市场中，有许多公司有机会成为长期赢家。但就目前而言，没有哪家公司比半导体巨头 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA -1.36%）更直接地受益于人工智能革命。</p>
</div><p>While an overwhelming percentage of Wall Street analysts and everyday investors believe Nvidia stock will head higher, a newly achieved dubious milestone might spell trouble for the stock market's AI darling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管绝大多数华尔街分析师和普通投资者相信 Nvidia 的股票将会上涨，但最近达成的一个可疑里程碑可能会给这只股票带来麻烦。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia's ascent to Wall Street's largest public company was facilitated by its AI-GPU dominance</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 成为华尔街最大上市公司的崛起得益于其 AI-GPU 的主导地位</h2>
</div><p>But before diving into whether or not Nvidia's latest milestone is problematic for investors, it's important to lay the foundation of how Nvidia became Wall Street's most-valuable publicly traded company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在深入探讨 Nvidia 最新的里程碑是否对投资者构成问题之前，重要的是要奠定 Nvidia 如何成为华尔街最有价值的上市公司的基础。</p>
</div><p>Though Nvidia has always been a key provider of graphics processing units (GPU) used for gaming and cryptocurrency mining, what kicked off its more-than-$3-trillion increase in market cap is the overwhelming demand from businesses for its Hopper (H100) GPU and next-generation Blackwell GPU architecture. Its hardware has become the &#34;brains&#34; of AI-accelerated data centers, with Hopper and Blackwell responsible for training large language models (LLMs) and overseeing generative AI solutions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 Nvidia 一直是用于游戏和加密货币挖掘的图形处理单元（GPU）的关键供应商，但其市值超过 3 万亿美元的增长是由于企业对其 Hopper（H100）GPU 和下一代 Blackwell GPU 架构的强烈需求。其硬件已成为 AI 加速数据中心的 “大脑”，Hopper 和 Blackwell 负责训练大型语言模型（LLMs）并监督生成性 AI 解决方案。</p>
</div><p>CEO Jensen Huang has set out an ambitious goal of bringing a new AI-GPU to market each year. Following the Hopper and Blackwell are Blackwell Ultra later this year, Vera Rubin in the second-half of 2026, and Vera Rubin Ultra in the latter-half of 2027. Huang's willingness to spend aggressively on innovation should cement Nvidia's hardware as the leader in data center compute ability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首席执行官黄仁勋设定了每年推出一款新 AI-GPU 的雄心勃勃的目标。Hopper 和 Blackwell 之后，Blackwell Ultra 将在今年晚些时候推出，Vera Rubin 将在 2026 年下半年推出，Vera Rubin Ultra 将在 2027 年下半年推出。黄仁勋愿意在创新上大力投资，应该能巩固 Nvidia 的硬件在数据中心计算能力中的领先地位。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, Nvidia has been a clear beneficiary of demand for AI-GPUs outpacing their supply. When demand for a good or service is greater than its supply, the price of said good or service will climb until demand tapers. In early 2024, Nvidia was commanding more than $40,000 for its Hopper chips, which is notably higher than the $10,000 to $15,000 price tag direct rival <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> was assigning to its Instinct AI-accelerating chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，Nvidia 明显受益于 AI-GPU 的需求超过供应。当某种商品或服务的需求大于其供应时，该商品或服务的价格将上涨，直到需求减弱。在 2024 年初，Nvidia 的 Hopper 芯片售价超过 4 万美元，显著高于其直接竞争对手 <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 为其 Instinct AI 加速芯片定的 1 万到 1.5 万美元的价格。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's CUDA software platform has been indispensable, as well. CUDA is the toolkit developers lean on to build LLMs and maximize the compute potential of their Nvidia GPUs. Think of CUDA as the umbrella that keeps customers contained within Nvidia's ecosystem of high-margin products and services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 的 CUDA 软件平台同样不可或缺。CUDA 是开发者用来构建 LLMs 并最大化其 Nvidia GPU 计算潜力的工具包。可以将 CUDA 视为一个保护伞，将客户留在 Nvidia 高利润产品和服务的生态系统中。</p>
</div><p>The point being that Nvidia didn't become the largest public company by accident. It reached the top of the mountain because it's delivered amid the hottest trend since the advent of the internet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关键在于，Nvidia 并不是偶然成为最大的上市公司。它之所以能登顶，是因为它在自互联网出现以来最热门的趋势中交付了成果。</p>
</div><h2>This is a warning that investors would be wise not to ignore</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这是一个投资者不应忽视的警告</h2>
</div><p>However, things may not be perfect for Nvidia, even if its stock has skyrocketed by close to 870% since the start of 2023. While I've previously pointed out a number of potential headwinds for Nvidia (I'll briefly touch on these headwinds a bit later), its latest dubious milestone might be its biggest warning to investors yet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，尽管 Nvidia 的股票自 2023 年初以来飙升了近 870%，但对 Nvidia 来说，情况可能并不完美。虽然我之前指出了 Nvidia 的一些潜在阻力（稍后我会简要提及这些阻力），但其最新的可疑里程碑可能是对投资者的最大警告。</p>
</div><p>June 3 marked exactly four-and-a-half years (54 months) since Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress filed Form 4 with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) noting that her two sons had indirectly purchased 100 shares each of Nvidia stock (200 shares on a combined basis). Dec. 3, 2020 is the last time any Nvidia insider has purchased shares of their company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>6 月 3 日标志着首席财务官 Colette Kress 向证券交易委员会（SEC）提交 Form 4 的确切四年半（54 个月）时间，表明她的两个儿子间接购买了各 100 股 Nvidia 股票（合计 200 股）。2020 年 12 月 3 日是任何 Nvidia 内部人士最后一次购买其公司股票。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA1MTkvaW52ZXN0b3ItcHJlc3Npbmctc2VsbC1idXR0b24tZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F820519%2Finvestor-pressing-sell-button-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Over the last 54 months, 170 separate Form 4s have been filed with the SEC outlining sales from company executive and directors. On a cumulative basis over the trailing-four-year period, insiders have dumped more than $3.35 billion worth of Nvidia stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去的 54 个月中，共有 170 份 Form 4 向 SEC 提交，概述了公司高管和董事的销售情况。在过去四年中，内部人士累计抛售了超过 33.5 亿美元的 Nvidia 股票。</p>
</div><p>To be completely upfront and objective, not all insider selling activity is inherently bad news. It's not uncommon for the lion's share of executive compensation at high-profile public companies to be in the form in the stock options and/or common shares (some which may vest over time). Insiders will sell a portion of their holdings or exercise stock options to cover their federal and/or state tax liability. This type of selling isn't worrisome.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>坦率地说，并非所有内部人士的卖出活动都是坏消息。在高知名度的上市公司中，执行补偿的绝大部分通常以股票期权和/或普通股的形式存在（其中一些可能会随着时间的推移而归属）。内部人士会出售部分持股或行使股票期权以支付联邦和/或州税。这种类型的卖出并不令人担忧。</p>
</div><p>At the time same, there's only one reason insiders buy shares of their own company's stock: they believe it'll head higher. Arguably no individuals know more about a company than its management team and board of directors. If not one of these individuals is willing to purchase a single share of Nvidia stock over the last 54 months, why should investors feel confident that Nvidia stock is headed higher?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，内部人士购买自己公司股票的唯一原因就是：他们相信股票会涨。可以说，没有人比公司的管理团队和董事会更了解公司。如果在过去 54 个月中没有一位内部人士愿意购买一股 Nvidia 股票，投资者为什么应该对 Nvidia 股票上涨感到信心呢？</p>
</div><p>A complete absence of insider buying, coupled with a steady stream of insider selling (especially in the summer of 2024), points to a potential top for Nvidia shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>内部人士完全没有购买行为，加上持续的内部人士卖出（尤其是在 2024 年夏季），表明 Nvidia 股票可能已达到顶峰。</p>
</div><h2>But wait -- there's more</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>但等等——还有更多</h2>
</div><p>As alluded earlier, a confluence of insider selling isn't the only headwind Wall Street's AI darling is contending with.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如之前提到的，内部人士的卖出并不是华尔街的 AI 宠儿所面临的唯一阻力。</p>
</div><p>For instance, there's a strong possibility competitive pressures have been and will continue to weigh on Nvidia's gross margin. While most investors have been focused on the production ramp of direct competitors like AMD and China-based Huawei, the bigger concern is what future demand might look like for Nvidia's hardware with many of its top customers by net sales internally developing their own AI-GPUs. These considerably less-costly and more readily available hardware solutions could minimize future opportunities for Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，竞争压力很可能已经并将继续对英伟达的毛利率产生影响。虽然大多数投资者关注的是直接竞争对手如 AMD 和中国华为的生产提升，但更大的担忧在于，随着许多主要客户开始内部开发自己的 AI-GPU，未来对英伟达硬件的需求可能会如何。这些成本显著更低且更易获得的硬件解决方案可能会减少英伟达未来的机会。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1071351afc424120ff0271a1e3d72900.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1071351afc424120ff0271a1e3d72900.png"/></p>
<p>An increase in competitive pressures has weighed on Nvidia's lofty gross margin. NVDA Gross Profit Margin (Quarterly) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>竞争压力的增加对英伟达的高毛利率造成了影响。NVDA 毛利率（季度）数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>To add to this point, it's not yet clear if Nvidia's aggressive innovation schedule is going to help or hinder its sales. On one hand, introducing a new AI chip annually affords Nvidia a reason to charge a premium for its AI-GPUs. Conversely, it also runs the risk of rapidly depreciating the value of prior-generation chips and pushing out upgrade cycles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>进一步说，目前尚不清楚英伟达的激进创新计划是否会帮助或阻碍其销售。一方面，每年推出一款新的 AI 芯片使英伟达有理由对其 AI-GPU 收取溢价。另一方面，这也存在迅速贬值前一代芯片并推迟升级周期的风险。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia hasn't been getting much help on the regulatory front, either. Beginning three years ago during the Joe Biden administration, and continuing under President Donald Trump, Nvidia has had a number of its high-powered chips restricted for export to China. The world's second-largest economy has consistently generated billions in quarterly sales for Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在监管方面，英伟达也没有得到太多帮助。从三年前乔·拜登政府开始，到唐纳德·特朗普总统任内，英伟达的多款高性能芯片被限制出口到中国。这个世界第二大经济体一直为英伟达创造数十亿美元的季度销售额。</p>
</div><p>Last but certainly not least, historical correlations are worrisome for Nvidia. Since (and including) the advent of the internet more than three decades ago, every game-changing innovation has endured an early inning bubble-bursting event. This is a function of investors persistently overestimating the adoption rate and early stage utility of a game-changing technology or trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后但同样重要的是，历史相关性让人对英伟达感到担忧。自互联网诞生以来的三十多年里，每一次颠覆性创新都经历过早期泡沫破裂事件。这是因为投资者持续高估了颠覆性技术或趋势的采用率和早期阶段的实用性。</p>
</div><p>Most businesses aren't anywhere close to optimizing their Ai solutions, or even generating a positive return on their AI investments. This signals that artificial intelligence is likely the next in a long line of bubbles to burst.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多数企业在优化其 AI 解决方案方面还远未达到，甚至没有产生正的 AI 投资回报。这表明人工智能可能是下一个即将破裂的泡沫。</p>
</div><p>This conglomeration of factors does suggest investors have something to worry about.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些因素的聚合确实表明投资者有理由感到担忧。</p>
</div>

This Dubious Milestone Might Be Nvidia's Biggest Red Flag to Date -- Should Investors Be Worried?

- 投资者对人工智能的关注持续超过两年，预计将为全球经济增加 15.7 万亿美元。  
- 尽管英伟达在 AI-GPU 市场中占据主导地位，但内部人士在过去 54 个月未购入股票。  
- 竞争压力和监管限制可能影响英伟达的未来增长，投资者需谨慎。  

这个值得怀疑的里程碑可能是英伟达迄今为止最大的警示信号——投资者是否应该感到担忧？