<p>英特尔（INTC -1.46%）曾是半导体行业的巨头。如今，这家曾被称为 Chipzilla 的公司在其最重要的部门失去了市场份额，并错过了人工智能（AI）热潮的机会。同时，英特尔正全力投入其相对较新的芯片制造业务。</p>
<p>英特尔更新的战略能否弥补近年来的失误？股票在未来一两年内是否有反弹的机会？简而言之，英特尔的股票现在值得购买吗？</p>
<p>让我们来看看。</p>
<h2>500 亿美元的赌注让投资者望而却步</h2>
<p>英特尔的股票在过去几年中一直挣扎。股价在那年四月达到了二十年来的最高点，随后开始了漫长而痛苦的下跌。下跌始于英特尔 2021 年第一季度的报告，尽管公司超出了华尔街的预期，但也揭示了其全新的芯片代工重点。</p>
<p>可以说，所谓的代工业务从一开始就颇具争议。过去两年，公司在新建和升级芯片制造设施上花费了超过 500 亿美元。</p>
<p>这些基础设施成本让许多潜在的英特尔投资者却步。代工部门甚至尚未盈利，并且面临来自稳固竞争对手 <strong>台积电</strong>（TSM 0.39%）和 <strong>三星</strong>（SSNL.F 9.01%）的巨大竞争。如果英特尔的巨额战略转型投资最终成为死胡同怎么办？</p>
<p>这就是英特尔股票自 2021 年四月高峰以来下跌 70% 的主要原因。即使是生成式 AI 的激增也无法弥补普通英特尔股东心中这个昂贵想法的影响。英特尔的 Gaudi 系列 AI 加速器可以通过更低的价格与 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA -1.44%）的行业标准卡竞争，使系统构建者能够在每个 AI 系统中装入更多的加速器。然而，巨额的电费和增强的系统冷却问题可能会削弱英特尔的成本优势。</p>
<h2>英特尔的新身份：代工芯片制造商</h2>
<p>因此，2025 年投资英特尔实际上是对芯片代工业务的直接长期押注。长期竞争对手 <strong>超微</strong>（AMD -2.57%）在 PC 和服务器系统的中央处理器（CPU）市场上抢走了英特尔的风头。英伟达在 AI 加速器市场上遥遥领先，后面跟着一大批渴望崛起的竞争者。虽然反弹总是有可能，但这甚至不是英特尔目前正在努力的方向。</p>
<p>在这方面，我认为理解英特尔的芯片制造雄心很重要。这个市场几十年来一直被台积电主导，三星最近才进入大规模市场。这两家公司都位于东南亚，方便靠近中国和台湾的科技制造中心。但这种地理集中在 2025 年可能会变成一种负担，因为中美贸易紧张局势不断升级。</p>
<p>因此，英特尔可能成为美国芯片设计师的顶级供应商。公司的大部分芯片制造设施分布在美国，亚利桑那州和俄勒冈州等地有大型制造园区。将芯片订单发送到这些设施将帮助国内半导体公司（及其设备制造客户）避免对国外制造的处理器征收关税和贸易限制。</p>
<p>这甚至不是一个新发展。英特尔的代工计划是在四年前启动的，当时正值因新冠疫情引发的芯片制造短缺和早期版本的今天加剧的贸易冲突。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA2NTEvc2VtaWNvbmR1Y3Rvci1jaGlwLWhpZGRlbi1hbW9uZy1sYXJnZS1kZW5vbWluYXRpb24tZG9sbGFyLWJpbGxzLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA2NTEvc2VtaWNvbmR1Y3Rvci1jaGlwLWhpZGRlbi1hbW9uZy1sYXJnZS1kZW5vbWluYXRpb24tZG9sbGFyLWJpbGxzLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>英特尔可能是 2025 年最佳的半导体交易</h2>
<p>我不能保证英特尔的代工理念在长期内会成功。然而，这家半导体老将拥有太多的长期专业知识和投资，不能在这里走错一步。</p>
<p>而且股票的定价已经反映了绝对的灾难。英特尔的股票交易价格为销售额的 1.7 倍和公司账面价值的 0.9 倍。与英特尔最接近的竞争对手相比，这属于超值区间：</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>半导体股票</th>
<th>市盈率（P/S）</th>
<th>市净率（P/B）</th>
<th>市值</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>英特尔</td>
<td>1.7</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>883 亿美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>超微</td>
<td>6.9</td>
<td>3.3</td>
<td>1923 亿美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>台积电</td>
<td>10.9</td>
<td>7.6</td>
<td>10496 亿美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>英伟达</td>
<td>23.3</td>
<td>41.3</td>
<td>34629 亿美元</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>数据来源于 Finviz.com，日期为 2025 年 6 月 4 日。</p>
<p>我对英特尔的极低市净率特别感兴趣。低于 1.0 的数字表明，如果公司干脆关闭运营，出售所有资产，并将现金返还给股东，投资者可能会更好。税收影响在大多数情况下会使这种退出策略无效，但你明白我的意思——许多投资者已经对英特尔失去了希望。</p>
<p>我认为这是对英特尔更新战略的短视看法。简而言之，英特尔的股票在这些低股价下看起来是个不错的买入机会。</p>

英特尔

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英特尔在半导体行业面临挑战，市场份额下降并错失了人工智能的机会。该公司在芯片制造上的 500 亿美元投资引发了投资者的担忧，自 2021 年 4 月以来，股价已下跌 70%。尽管面临来自台积电和英伟达等竞争对手的压力，英特尔的战略可能使其在贸易紧张局势中成为美国芯片设计师的关键供应商。目前，英特尔的股票被低估，交易价格为销售额的 1.7 倍和账面价值的 0.9 倍，暗示到 2025 年有反弹的潜力</p>

<p>Intel (INTC -1.46%) used to be the 800-pound gorilla of the semiconductor industry. These days, the company formerly known as Chipzilla has lost market share in its most important divisions and missed the bus to the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. At the same time, Intel is leaning into its relatively new chip manufacturing with a vengeance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英特尔（INTC -1.46%）曾是半导体行业的巨头。如今，这家曾被称为 Chipzilla 的公司在其最重要的部门失去了市场份额，并错过了人工智能（AI）热潮的机会。同时，英特尔正全力投入其相对较新的芯片制造业务。</p>
</div><p>Can Intel's updated strategy make up for the missteps in recent years? Is the stock poised for a turnaround in the next year or two? In short, is Intel stock a good buy right now?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英特尔更新的战略能否弥补近年来的失误？股票在未来一两年内是否有反弹的机会？简而言之，英特尔的股票现在值得购买吗？</p>
</div><p>Let's find out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们来看看。</p>
</div><h2>The $50 billion bet that scared investors away</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>500 亿美元的赌注让投资者望而却步</h2>
</div><p>Intel's stock has been struggling for a few years. Share prices peaked at a two-decade high in April that year, before starting a long and painful downturn. The plunge began with Intel's Q1 2021 report, where the company crushed Wall Street's estimates but also revealed its brand-new chip foundry focus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英特尔的股票在过去几年中一直挣扎。股价在那年四月达到了二十年来的最高点，随后开始了漫长而痛苦的下跌。下跌始于英特尔 2021 年第一季度的报告，尽管公司超出了华尔街的预期，但也揭示了其全新的芯片代工重点。</p>
</div><p>It's fair to say that the so-called foundry business has been controversial from the start. The company spent more than $50 billion on new and upgraded chip-making facilities over the last two years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可以说，所谓的代工业务从一开始就颇具争议。过去两年，公司在新建和升级芯片制造设施上花费了超过 500 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Those infrastructure costs are scaring away many prospective Intel investors. The foundry division isn't even turning a profit yet, and it faces tremendous competition from firmly established rivals <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>(TSM 0.39%) and <strong>Samsung</strong>(SSNL.F 9.01%). What if Intel's massive strategy-shifting investment turns out to be a dead end?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些基础设施成本让许多潜在的英特尔投资者却步。代工部门甚至尚未盈利，并且面临来自稳固竞争对手 <strong>台积电</strong>（TSM 0.39%）和 <strong>三星</strong>（SSNL.F 9.01%）的巨大竞争。如果英特尔的巨额战略转型投资最终成为死胡同怎么办？</p>
</div><p>That's the main reason why Intel's stock has fallen 70% from the April 2021 summit. Not even the generative AI upsurge can make up for this expensive idea in the average Intel shareholder's mind. Intel's Gaudi line of AI accelerators can compete with <strong>Nvidia</strong>'s (NVDA -1.44%) industry-standard cards by being far cheaper, allowing system builders to pack many more accelerators into each AI system. Beefy electric bills and boosted system cooling concerns can undermine Intel's cost advantage, using this approach.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是英特尔股票自 2021 年四月高峰以来下跌 70% 的主要原因。即使是生成式 AI 的激增也无法弥补普通英特尔股东心中这个昂贵想法的影响。英特尔的 Gaudi 系列 AI 加速器可以通过更低的价格与 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA -1.44%）的行业标准卡竞争，使系统构建者能够在每个 AI 系统中装入更多的加速器。然而，巨额的电费和增强的系统冷却问题可能会削弱英特尔的成本优势。</p>
</div><h2>Intel's new identity: Chipmaker for hire</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英特尔的新身份：代工芯片制造商</h2>
</div><p>So an Intel investment in 2025 is a pretty direct long-term bet on the chip-making foundry business. Longtime challenger <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>(AMD -2.57%) has stolen Intel's thunder in the central processor unit (CPU) markets for PC and server systems. Nvidia is running away with the AI accelerator market, followed by a large pack of hungry up-and-comers. A turnaround is always possible, but this isn't even what Intel is working on nowadays.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，2025 年投资英特尔实际上是对芯片代工业务的直接长期押注。长期竞争对手 <strong>超微</strong>（AMD -2.57%）在 PC 和服务器系统的中央处理器（CPU）市场上抢走了英特尔的风头。英伟达在 AI 加速器市场上遥遥领先，后面跟着一大批渴望崛起的竞争者。虽然反弹总是有可能，但这甚至不是英特尔目前正在努力的方向。</p>
</div><p>On that note, I think it's important to understand Intel's chip-making ambition. This market has been dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor for decades, with Samsung entering the large-scale arena more recently. Both companies are based in Southeast Asia, conveniently close to the tech manufacturing centers in China and Taiwan. But this geographic concentration is turning into a liability in 2025, as Chinese-American trade tensions keep flaring higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这方面，我认为理解英特尔的芯片制造雄心很重要。这个市场几十年来一直被台积电主导，三星最近才进入大规模市场。这两家公司都位于东南亚，方便靠近中国和台湾的科技制造中心。但这种地理集中在 2025 年可能会变成一种负担，因为中美贸易紧张局势不断升级。</p>
</div><p>So Intel could become the top supplier for American chip designers. Most of the company's chip-making facilities are scattered around the U.S., with large manufacturing campuses in places like Arizona and Oregon. Sending chip orders to these facilities will help domestic semiconductor companies (and their device-building clients) avoid tariffs and trade restrictions on processors made abroad.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，英特尔可能成为美国芯片设计师的顶级供应商。公司的大部分芯片制造设施分布在美国，亚利桑那州和俄勒冈州等地有大型制造园区。将芯片订单发送到这些设施将帮助国内半导体公司（及其设备制造客户）避免对国外制造的处理器征收关税和贸易限制。</p>
</div><p>This isn't even a new development. Intel's foundry plan launched four years ago, amid the coronavirus-driven chip manufacturing shortage and an earlier version of today's amplified trade conflicts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这甚至不是一个新发展。英特尔的代工计划是在四年前启动的，当时正值因新冠疫情引发的芯片制造短缺和早期版本的今天加剧的贸易冲突。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA2NTEvc2VtaWNvbmR1Y3Rvci1jaGlwLWhpZGRlbi1hbW9uZy1sYXJnZS1kZW5vbWluYXRpb24tZG9sbGFyLWJpbGxzLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F820651%2Fsemiconductor-chip-hidden-among-large-denomination-dollar-bills.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Intel might be the best semiconductor deal of 2025</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英特尔可能是 2025 年最佳的半导体交易</h2>
</div><p>I can't promise that Intel's foundry idea will work out in the long run. However, the semiconductor veteran has too much long-tenured expertise and too much money invested to take a wrong turn here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我不能保证英特尔的代工理念在长期内会成功。然而，这家半导体老将拥有太多的长期专业知识和投资，不能在这里走错一步。</p>
</div><p>And the stock is priced for absolute disaster. Intel shares are changing hands at 1.7 times sales and 0.9 times the company's book value. That's bargain-bin territory in comparison to Intel's closest rivals:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且股票的定价已经反映了绝对的灾难。英特尔的股票交易价格为销售额的 1.7 倍和公司账面价值的 0.9 倍。与英特尔最接近的竞争对手相比，这属于超值区间：</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Semiconductor Stock</th>
<th>Price to Sales (P/S)</th>
<th>Price to Book (P/B)</th>
<th>Market Cap</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Intel</td>
<td>1.7</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>$88.3 billion</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>AMD</td>
<td>6.9</td>
<td>3.3</td>
<td>$192.3 billion</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Taiwan Semiconductor</td>
<td>10.9</td>
<td>7.6</td>
<td>$1,049.6 billion</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nvidia</td>
<td>23.3</td>
<td>41.3</td>
<td>$3,462.9 billion</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>半导体股票</th>
<th>市盈率（P/S）</th>
<th>市净率（P/B）</th>
<th>市值</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>英特尔</td>
<td>1.7</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>883 亿美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>超微</td>
<td>6.9</td>
<td>3.3</td>
<td>1923 亿美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>台积电</td>
<td>10.9</td>
<td>7.6</td>
<td>10496 亿美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>英伟达</td>
<td>23.3</td>
<td>41.3</td>
<td>34629 亿美元</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data taken from Finviz.com on June 4, 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源于 Finviz.com，日期为 2025 年 6 月 4 日。</p>
</div><p>I'm particularly intrigued by Intel's rock-bottom price to book value. A figure below 1.0 suggests that investors might be better served if the company simply shut down its operations, sold all assets, and returned that cash to shareholders instead. Tax effects would make this an ineffective exit strategy in most cases, but you get the idea -- many investors have just given up hope for Intel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我对英特尔的极低市净率特别感兴趣。低于 1.0 的数字表明，如果公司干脆关闭运营，出售所有资产，并将现金返还给股东，投资者可能会更好。税收影响在大多数情况下会使这种退出策略无效，但你明白我的意思——许多投资者已经对英特尔失去了希望。</p>
</div><p>And I think that's a short-sighted view of Intel's updated strategy. In short, Intel's stock looks like a great buy at these low share prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为这是对英特尔更新战略的短视看法。简而言之，英特尔的股票在这些低股价下看起来是个不错的买入机会。</p>
</div>

Should Investors Bet on Intel's Turnaround In 2025?

- 英特尔在半导体行业的市场份额下降，面临激烈竞争。  
- 公司在芯片制造上的投资超过 500 亿美元，但尚未盈利。  
- 当前股价低于账面价值，可能是投资者的短视表现。

投资者是否应该押注英特尔在 2025 年的复苏？