<p><strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL 1.79%）的股价在过去 20 年中飙升了 14,760%，这得益于其硬件设备和软件解决方案日益受到全球消费者的欢迎。即使在过去五年中，投资者也获得了 150% 的收益（截至 6 月 4 日）。</p>
<p>如今，苹果是一家庞然大物，市值达到 3 万亿美元。但其股价距离峰值下跌了 22%，这可能提供了一个潜在的买入机会。在未来五年，这家主导消费电子企业的股票将会如何呢？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA2NDAvd29tYW4td2l0aC1haXJwb2RzLWluLWVhci1hcHBsZS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA2NDAvd29tYW4td2l0aC1haXJwb2RzLWluLWVhci1hcHBsZS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：苹果。</p>
<h2>iPhone 的终结开始了吗？</h2>
<p>iPhone 可能是有史以来最成功的产品。它于 2007 年首次发布，现在已经进入第 16 个升级周期。在 2025 财年第二季度（截至 3 月 29 日），这一单一产品为苹果创造了 470 亿美元的收入，占总收入的 49%。然而，问题在于，这一销售数字同比仅增长了 2%。</p>
<p>从消费者的角度来看，升级之间等待更长时间是合理的，因为新功能并不像以前那样具有革命性。例如，为了相机的小幅改进，花费四位数的金额可能并不值得。</p>
<p>也许到 2030 年，会出现一种新设备，改变人们与技术互动和完成任务的方式。最近宣布，OpenAI 将以 65 亿美元收购苹果前首席设计官 Jony Ive 的设计公司 io。目标是创造一种专门为人工智能（AI）构建的全新产品。</p>
<p>就我而言，我并不准备声称 iPhone 已经死去。毕竟，它在三个月内创造的收入超过了大多数公司一整年的收入。但增长放缓突显了公司在未来可能面临的挑战。其中之一是，苹果的智能技术可能落后于潮流，正如其未能推动更多 iPhone 16 购买所显示的那样。</p>
<p>批评者指出，苹果未能创造出下一个能够推动财务增长的颠覆性硬件设备。报道称，苹果在过去十年里一直在研发一款电动汽车。仅在美国，4 月份季节性调整后的年销量达 1770 万辆，因此这个市场足够大，值得苹果关注。然而，苹果去年关闭了这个项目。</p>
<p>对苹果采取谨慎态度是个好主意。iPhone 之后推出的产品在任何标准下都取得了惊人的成功。例如，Apple Watch 的全球市场份额为 22%。预计 AirPods 在 2023 财年带来了 180 亿美元的收入。在过去四个财年中，苹果的公司整体销售额达到了 4000 亿美元，因此推动强劲增长极其困难。</p>
<h2>苹果能否超越市场？</h2>
<p>投资者采取的行动最终取决于他们想要实现的目标。对于许多人来说，目标是在长期内超越市场。如果你在过去拥有苹果股票，这正是发生的事情。</p>
<p>但如果我们展望未来五年，我对这只股票能否跑赢更广泛的指数并不自信。较低的增长前景和 31.6 的市盈率是主要的阻力。</p>
<p>公平地说，这是一家具有竞争优势的企业。它仍然拥有世界上最强大的品牌之一。它产生了巨额的净收入和自由现金流，其中很多以股息和回购的形式返还给股东。</p>
<p>这意味着苹果至少应该保持在你的关注范围内。如果估值降至市盈率 25 或以下，那么情况就更有趣了。届时可以考虑买入该股票。在那之前，请耐心等待合适的机会。</p>

苹果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

苹果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

苹果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>苹果的股票在 20 年内上涨了 14,760%，在过去五年中增长了 150%，但目前交易价格比峰值低 22%。尽管 iPhone 仍然是收入的强大来源，但增长放缓，引发了对未来销售的担忧。尽管面临挑战，苹果依然是一个强大的品牌，拥有可观的现金流。分析师建议，虽然苹果在未来五年可能无法超越市场，但如果市盈率降至 25 以下，仍应关注潜在的买入机会</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>'s(AAPL 1.79%) stock price has shot up 14,760% in the past 20 years thanks to the budding popularity of its hardware devices and software solutions that have won over consumers across the globe. Even in the past five years, investors have been rewarded with a 150% gain (as of June 4).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL 1.79%）的股价在过去 20 年中飙升了 14,760%，这得益于其硬件设备和软件解决方案日益受到全球消费者的欢迎。即使在过去五年中，投资者也获得了 150% 的收益（截至 6 月 4 日）。</p>
</div><p>Apple is a behemoth today, with a market cap of $3 trillion. But the stock trades 22% off its peak, which might present a potential buying opportunity. Where will shares in this dominant consumer electronics enterprise be in five years?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，苹果是一家庞然大物，市值达到 3 万亿美元。但其股价距离峰值下跌了 22%，这可能提供了一个潜在的买入机会。在未来五年，这家主导消费电子企业的股票将会如何呢？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA2NDAvd29tYW4td2l0aC1haXJwb2RzLWluLWVhci1hcHBsZS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F820640%2Fwoman-with-airpods-in-ear-apple.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Apple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：苹果。</p>
</div><h2>Is it the beginning of the end for the iPhone?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>iPhone 的终结开始了吗？</h2>
</div><p>The iPhone might be the most successful product of all time. It was released for the first time in 2007, and now it's on its 16th upgrade cycle. In the fiscal 2025 second quarter (ended March 29), this single product generated $47 billion in revenue for Apple, accounting for 49% of the total. The issue, though, is that this sales figure was up only 2% year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>iPhone 可能是有史以来最成功的产品。它于 2007 年首次发布，现在已经进入第 16 个升级周期。在 2025 财年第二季度（截至 3 月 29 日），这一单一产品为苹果创造了 470 亿美元的收入，占总收入的 49%。然而，问题在于，这一销售数字同比仅增长了 2%。</p>
</div><p>From a consumer's perspective, it makes sense to wait longer between upgrades simply because the newer features aren't as revolutionary as they were before. It's probably not worth spending a four-figure sum for minor tweaks to the camera, for instance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从消费者的角度来看，升级之间等待更长时间是合理的，因为新功能并不像以前那样具有革命性。例如，为了相机的小幅改进，花费四位数的金额可能并不值得。</p>
</div><p>Maybe by 2030, a new device will be created that changes how people interact with technology and get things done. It was announced recently that OpenAI will acquire the design firm io from Jony Ive, former Chief Design Officer at Apple, for $6.5 billion. The goal is to create a totally new product that is built specifically for artificial intelligence (AI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也许到 2030 年，会出现一种新设备，改变人们与技术互动和完成任务的方式。最近宣布，OpenAI 将以 65 亿美元收购苹果前首席设计官 Jony Ive 的设计公司 io。目标是创造一种专门为人工智能（AI）构建的全新产品。</p>
</div><p>For what it's worth, I'm not ready to claim that the iPhone is dead. After all, it raked in more revenue in a three-month span than most companies do in an entire year. But the slowdown highlights potential challenges for the company as we look ahead. One is that perhaps Apple Intelligence is behind the curve, as evidenced by its inability to drive more iPhone 16 purchases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就我而言，我并不准备声称 iPhone 已经死去。毕竟，它在三个月内创造的收入超过了大多数公司一整年的收入。但增长放缓突显了公司在未来可能面临的挑战。其中之一是，苹果的智能技术可能落后于潮流，正如其未能推动更多 iPhone 16 购买所显示的那样。</p>
</div><p>The critics have called out Apple's failure to create the next game-changing hardware device that can push the financial needle. Apple was reportedly working on an electric car for a decade. In the U.S. alone, 17.7 million passenger vehicles were sold on a seasonally adjusted annual basis in April, so this market is certainly big enough for this business to focus on. However, Apple shut down this project last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>批评者指出，苹果未能创造出下一个能够推动财务增长的颠覆性硬件设备。报道称，苹果在过去十年里一直在研发一款电动汽车。仅在美国，4 月份季节性调整后的年销量达 1770 万辆，因此这个市场足够大，值得苹果关注。然而，苹果去年关闭了这个项目。</p>
</div><p>It's a good idea to take it easy on Apple. Products that have been launched after the iPhone have been ridiculously successful by any measure. For example, the Apple Watch has a 22% global market share. And it is estimated that AirPods brought in $18 billion in revenue in fiscal 2023. It's just extremely difficult to push strong growth when you generated $400 billion in companywide sales in the past four fiscal quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对苹果采取谨慎态度是个好主意。iPhone 之后推出的产品在任何标准下都取得了惊人的成功。例如，Apple Watch 的全球市场份额为 22%。预计 AirPods 在 2023 财年带来了 180 亿美元的收入。在过去四个财年中，苹果的公司整体销售额达到了 4000 亿美元，因此推动强劲增长极其困难。</p>
</div><h2>Will Apple beat the market?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果能否超越市场？</h2>
</div><p>The action investors take ultimately comes down to what they're trying to achieve. For many, the goal is to beat the market over the long term. Had you owned Apple in the past, this is precisely what has happened.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者采取的行动最终取决于他们想要实现的目标。对于许多人来说，目标是在长期内超越市场。如果你在过去拥有苹果股票，这正是发生的事情。</p>
</div><p>But if we look to the next five years, I'm not confident this stock can outperform the broader indexes. Lower growth prospects and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 31.6 are key headwinds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果我们展望未来五年，我对这只股票能否跑赢更广泛的指数并不自信。较低的增长前景和 31.6 的市盈率是主要的阻力。</p>
</div><p>To be fair, this is a competitively advantaged business. It still possesses one of the world's most powerful brands. It produces insane amounts of net income and free cash flow, a lot of which is returned to shareholders in the form of dividends and buybacks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公平地说，这是一家具有竞争优势的企业。它仍然拥有世界上最强大的品牌之一。它产生了巨额的净收入和自由现金流，其中很多以股息和回购的形式返还给股东。</p>
</div><p>This means that Apple should at least remain on your radar. If the valuation drops to a P/E of 25 or below, then the situation is more interesting. It's time to consider buying the stock at that point. Until then, be patient for the right opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这意味着苹果至少应该保持在你的关注范围内。如果估值降至市盈率 25 或以下，那么情况就更有趣了。届时可以考虑买入该股票。在那之前，请耐心等待合适的机会。</p>
</div>

Where Will Apple Stock Be in 5 Years?

- 苹果公司过去 20 年股价上涨 14,760%，市值达 3 万亿美元。  
- iPhone 销售增长放缓，2025 财年第二季度收入为 470 亿美元，仅增长 2%。  
- 投资者需关注苹果的估值，若市盈率降至 25 以下，可考虑买入。

五年后苹果的股票会处于什么位置？