<p>如果 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR 6.56%) 和 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 1.26%) 在股票市场上进行一场拳击比赛，那么到目前为止，我们将会看到技术性击倒。Palantir 的股价飙升近 70%，而 Nvidia 的股价仅上涨了个位数百分比。</p>
<p>然而，比赛还没有结束。Palantir 的股票会在 2025 年下半年击败 Nvidia 吗？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA1NjcvY2hpbmVzZS13b21hbi1leWVnbGFzc2VzLXN0b2NrLWNoYXJ0cy5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA1NjcvY2hpbmVzZS13b21hbi1leWVnbGFzc2VzLXN0b2NrLWNoYXJ0cy5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>Palantir 的势头，Nvidia 的困境</h2>
<p>Palantir 在 2025 年前五个月左右的强劲势头是由多个因素推动的。该公司快速增长的商业收入是其最大的助力之一。Palantir 在第一季度报告的商业收入为 2.55 亿美元，同比增长 71%，环比增长 19%。其美国商业总合同预订价值同比飙升 183%，达到 8.1 亿美元，创下 Palantir 历史上最高的季度数字。</p>
<p>当然，Palantir 仍然在很大程度上依赖政府合同。该业务也在蓬勃发展，公司的美国政府收入在第一季度同比增长 45%，达到 3.73 亿美元。特朗普总统的 &#34;大、美丽法案&#34; 在国会通过的前景也让 Palantir 的股东感到兴奋。Palantir 是几家被视为开发该立法中包含的金色圆顶导弹防御系统的领跑者之一。</p>
<p>那么 Nvidia 呢？与其说是势头，不如说这家科技股主要经历了困境。特朗普政府对人工智能（AI）芯片的出口限制在 Nvidia 头上笼罩了一片阴云。由于这些出口限制，该公司在第一季度注销了 45 亿美元的库存，因为对其 H20 GPU 的需求下降。</p>
<p>这并不是特朗普总统的贸易政策对 Nvidia 造成伤害的唯一例子。关税也产生了影响。首席财务官 Colette Kress 在公司最近的财报电话会议上承认，&#34;与关税相关的不确定性暂时影响了&#34; 第一季度的系统收入。</p>
<h2>展望 2025 年下半年</h2>
<p>2025 年下半年 Palantir 和 Nvidia 会有什么样的前景？我会尽力展望未来，预测这两家公司的短期发展。</p>
<p>对于 Palantir，我认为持续的商业成功是非常可能的。在报告第一季度业绩后的三天内，这家软件制造商宣布与埃隆·马斯克的 AI 公司 xAI 以及投资控股公司 TWG Global 达成新的商业合作，并与非营利医疗标准组织 The Joint Commission 建立合作关系。我预计 Palantir 的商业收入将在下半年继续强劲增长。</p>
<p>对于 Nvidia，我预测其新款 Blackwell GPU 将继续取得巨大的商业成功。Blackwell 已经是该公司历史上增长最快的产品。我预计随着年末的临近，Blackwell 的利润率将会改善，从而提升 Nvidia 的收益。</p>
<p>不过，我的展望在两个方面变得模糊。我不确定 &#34;大、美丽法案&#34; 是否会以目前的形式通过参议院。虽然我认为如果该法案成为法律，Palantir 有很好的机会赢得部分金色圆顶合同，但这并不是板上钉钉的事情。</p>
<p>我也不太确定特朗普政府的贸易政策将在下半年如何影响 Nvidia。特朗普总统的计划变化太频繁。联邦法院也可能最终会撤销他征收高额普遍关税的努力。</p>
<h2>Palantir 会击败 Nvidia 吗？</h2>
<p>让我们回到最初的问题：Palantir 的股票会在 2025 年下半年击败 Nvidia 吗？我认为围绕 Nvidia 的不确定性使得 Palantir 更有可能在年底之前超越 Nvidia。然而，我不会说 Palantir 会彻底击败 Nvidia。</p>
<p>还有一个关键因素可能使得 Nvidia 在下半年成为更好的选择：估值。Palantir 的前瞻性市盈率接近 244。如果该公司的增长在加速，这样的高估值可能不会那么令人担忧。然而，Palantir 的增长正在 <em>放缓</em>。</p>
<p>Nvidia 的增长也在放缓。但这家 GPU 制造商的股票交易在前瞻性市盈率为 32 倍。虽然这仍然很高，但与 Palantir 的估值相比并没有那么离谱。</p>
<p>也许在接下来的几个月里，估值不会那么重要。然而，从长远来看，估值总是重要的。因此，我认为 Nvidia 是比 Palantir 更值得长期持有的股票。</p>

PLTR

英伟达

<p>Palantir Technologies 在 2025 年显著超越了英伟达，股价上涨了 70%，而英伟达仅有个位数的增长。Palantir 的增长得益于强劲的商业收入和政府合同，而英伟达则面临出口限制和关税的挑战。展望 2025 年下半年，预计 Palantir 将继续保持其增长势头，但英伟达的新产品和贸易政策的不确定性仍然存在。尽管 Palantir 目前领先，但英伟达较低的估值可能使其成为更好的长期投资</p>

<p>If <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR 6.56%) and <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 1.26%) were in the stock equivalent of a boxing match, we'd have a technical knockout so far this year. Palantir has crushed Nvidia, with its shares skyrocketing close to 70%, while Nvidia's stock is up by only a single-digit percentage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR 6.56%) 和 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 1.26%) 在股票市场上进行一场拳击比赛，那么到目前为止，我们将会看到技术性击倒。Palantir 的股价飙升近 70%，而 Nvidia 的股价仅上涨了个位数百分比。</p>
</div><p>However, the match isn't over. Will Palantir stock trounce Nvidia in the second half of 2025?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，比赛还没有结束。Palantir 的股票会在 2025 年下半年击败 Nvidia 吗？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA1NjcvY2hpbmVzZS13b21hbi1leWVnbGFzc2VzLXN0b2NrLWNoYXJ0cy5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F820567%2Fchinese-woman-eyeglasses-stock-charts.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Palantir's momentum, Nvidia's malaise</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Palantir 的势头，Nvidia 的困境</h2>
</div><p>Palantir's tremendous momentum in the first five or so months of 2025 has been the result of several factors. The company's rapidly growing commercial revenue is one of its biggest tailwinds. Palantir reported commercial revenue of $255 million in the first quarter, up 71% year over year and 19% quarter over quarter. Its U.S. commercial total contract booking value soared 183% year over year to $810 million, the highest quarterly number in Palantir's history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 在 2025 年前五个月左右的强劲势头是由多个因素推动的。该公司快速增长的商业收入是其最大的助力之一。Palantir 在第一季度报告的商业收入为 2.55 亿美元，同比增长 71%，环比增长 19%。其美国商业总合同预订价值同比飙升 183%，达到 8.1 亿美元，创下 Palantir 历史上最高的季度数字。</p>
</div><p>Of course, Palantir still relies heavily on government contracts. That business is also booming, with the company's U.S. government revenue jumping 45% year over year in Q1 to $373 million. The prospects of congressional passage of President Trump's &#34;Big, Beautiful Bill&#34; have also excited Palantir shareholders. Palantir is one of several companies viewed as front-runners in developing the Golden Dome missile defense system included in the legislation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，Palantir 仍然在很大程度上依赖政府合同。该业务也在蓬勃发展，公司的美国政府收入在第一季度同比增长 45%，达到 3.73 亿美元。特朗普总统的 &#34;大、美丽法案&#34; 在国会通过的前景也让 Palantir 的股东感到兴奋。Palantir 是几家被视为开发该立法中包含的金色圆顶导弹防御系统的领跑者之一。</p>
</div><p>What about Nvidia? Instead of momentum, the tech stock has mainly experienced malaise. The Trump administration's export restrictions on artificial intelligence (AI) chips have created a dark cloud that's hovering over Nvidia's head. The company wrote off $4.5 billion in Q1 because of excess inventory and lower demand for its H20 GPUs as a result of those export restrictions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么 Nvidia 呢？与其说是势头，不如说这家科技股主要经历了困境。特朗普政府对人工智能（AI）芯片的出口限制在 Nvidia 头上笼罩了一片阴云。由于这些出口限制，该公司在第一季度注销了 45 亿美元的库存，因为对其 H20 GPU 的需求下降。</p>
</div><p>That wasn't the only example of President Trump's trade policies that are hurting Nvidia. Tariffs are having an impact, too. CFO Colette Kress acknowledged in the company's recent earnings call that &#34;tariff-related uncertainty temporarily impacted&#34; systems revenue in the first quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不是特朗普总统的贸易政策对 Nvidia 造成伤害的唯一例子。关税也产生了影响。首席财务官 Colette Kress 在公司最近的财报电话会议上承认，&#34;与关税相关的不确定性暂时影响了&#34; 第一季度的系统收入。</p>
</div><h2>Peering into the crystal ball for the second half of 2025</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>展望 2025 年下半年</h2>
</div><p>What's in store for Palantir and Nvidia in the second half of 2025? I'll do my best to peer into the crystal ball to predict the near-future for the two companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 年下半年 Palantir 和 Nvidia 会有什么样的前景？我会尽力展望未来，预测这两家公司的短期发展。</p>
</div><p>For Palantir, I think continued commercial success is highly likely. Within three days after reporting its Q1 results, the software maker announced a new commercial collaboration with Elon Musk's AI company xAI and investment holding company TWG Global, as well as a partnership with nonprofit healthcare standards organization The Joint Commission. I expect Palantir's commercial revenue will keep growing robustly in the second half of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于 Palantir，我认为持续的商业成功是非常可能的。在报告第一季度业绩后的三天内，这家软件制造商宣布与埃隆·马斯克的 AI 公司 xAI 以及投资控股公司 TWG Global 达成新的商业合作，并与非营利医疗标准组织 The Joint Commission 建立合作关系。我预计 Palantir 的商业收入将在下半年继续强劲增长。</p>
</div><p>With Nvidia, I predict that its new Blackwell GPUs will remain a smashing commercial success. Blackwell is already the company's fastest ramp-up in its history. I look for Blackwell's profit margins to improve as the year progresses, boosting Nvidia's earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于 Nvidia，我预测其新款 Blackwell GPU 将继续取得巨大的商业成功。Blackwell 已经是该公司历史上增长最快的产品。我预计随着年末的临近，Blackwell 的利润率将会改善，从而提升 Nvidia 的收益。</p>
</div><p>My crystal ball gets cloudy on two fronts, though. I'm not sure about whether the &#34;Big, Beautiful Bill&#34; will pass the Senate in its current form. And while I think Palantir has a good shot at winning part of the Golden Dome contract if the bill does become law, it's not a slam dunk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，我的展望在两个方面变得模糊。我不确定 &#34;大、美丽法案&#34; 是否会以目前的形式通过参议院。虽然我认为如果该法案成为法律，Palantir 有很好的机会赢得部分金色圆顶合同，但这并不是板上钉钉的事情。</p>
</div><p>I'm also not confident predicting how the Trump administration's trade policies will affect Nvidia in the second half of the year. President Trump's plans change too frequently. It's also possible that the federal courts will ultimately pull the rug from underneath his efforts to levy steep across-the-board tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我也不太确定特朗普政府的贸易政策将在下半年如何影响 Nvidia。特朗普总统的计划变化太频繁。联邦法院也可能最终会撤销他征收高额普遍关税的努力。</p>
</div><h2>Will Palantir trounce Nvidia?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Palantir 会击败 Nvidia 吗？</h2>
</div><p>Let's return to our original question: Will Palantir stock trounce Nvidia in the second half of 2025? I think the uncertainties surrounding Nvidia make it more likely than not that Palantir will outperform Nvidia through the end of the year. However, I wouldn't go as far as saying that Palantir will trounce Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们回到最初的问题：Palantir 的股票会在 2025 年下半年击败 Nvidia 吗？我认为围绕 Nvidia 的不确定性使得 Palantir 更有可能在年底之前超越 Nvidia。然而，我不会说 Palantir 会彻底击败 Nvidia。</p>
</div><p>There's also one key factor that could make Nvidia the better pick in the back half of the year: valuation. Palantir's forward earnings multiple is nearly 244. If the company's growth were accelerating, that nosebleed valuation might not be so alarming. However, Palantir's growth is <em>slowing</em>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>还有一个关键因素可能使得 Nvidia 在下半年成为更好的选择：估值。Palantir 的前瞻性市盈率接近 244。如果该公司的增长在加速，这样的高估值可能不会那么令人担忧。然而，Palantir 的增长正在 <em>放缓</em>。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's growth is slowing, too. But the GPU maker's shares trade at 32 times forward earnings. That's still high. It isn't in the stratosphere like Palantir's, though.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 的增长也在放缓。但这家 GPU 制造商的股票交易在前瞻性市盈率为 32 倍。虽然这仍然很高，但与 Palantir 的估值相比并没有那么离谱。</p>
</div><p>Maybe valuation won't matter over the next few months. However, valuation always matters over the long term. Because of this, I think Nvidia is a better stock to own over the long term than Palantir.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也许在接下来的几个月里，估值不会那么重要。然而，从长远来看，估值总是重要的。因此，我认为 Nvidia 是比 Palantir 更值得长期持有的股票。</p>
</div>

Will Palantir Stock Trounce Nvidia in the Second Half of 2025?

- Palantir 2025 年股价上涨近 70%，而 Nvidia 仅上涨个位数百分比。  
- Palantir 第一季度商业收入达 2.55 亿美元，同比增长 71%。  
- Nvidia 面临出口限制和关税影响，第一季度损失 45 亿美元。  

Palantir 的股票能否在 2025 年下半年超越 NVIDIA？