<p><strong>AGNC Investment</strong>（AGNC 0.94%）在市场上拥有最高的股息收益率之一，约为 16%。但由于过去几年股价稳步下滑，投资者有理由问：这项分红是否可持续，更重要的是，今天的股票是否值得购买？</p>
<p>对于不熟悉的人来说，AGNC 是一家抵押贷款房地产投资信托（mREIT），拥有主要由 <strong>房利美</strong> 和 <strong>房地美</strong> 担保的机构抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）。由于这些证券由政府机构担保，因此几乎没有信用风险。但 AGNC 的业务远非无风险，这里故事变得复杂。</p>
<h2>AGNC 为何挣扎</h2>
<p>过去几年，AGNC 面临的最大问题是抵押贷款利率上升。推动利率上升的主要有两个问题。</p>
<p>其一是美联储在几年前为了应对通货膨胀而大幅提高基准利率。这导致抵押贷款利率也随之攀升。然而，这并不是抵押贷款利率飙升的唯一原因。</p>
<p>MBS 收益率与国债收益率之间的利差也开始显著扩大。在 COVID-19 大流行期间，美联储是 MBS 的巨大买家，压低了收益率并缩小了 MBS 与国债之间的收益差。然而，在大流行之后，美联储停止了购买 MBS，并开始让其到期后从资产负债表中剔除。大约在同一时间，随着债券价格下跌，银行也开始减少购买 MBS，而硅谷银行的倒闭（该行重仓长期 MBS）更是使银行进一步远离 MBS 市场。</p>
<p>在此期间，AGNC 的 MBS 投资组合的价值（以其有形账面价值（TBV）衡量）暴跌。从 2021 年底到 2023 年底，AGNC 的有形账面价值从每股 15.75 美元下降了 45%，降至 8.70 美元。此后又略微下滑，截至 2025 年第一季度末为 8.25 美元。最终，AGNC 的 TBV 走向哪里，其股票必然会跟随。</p>
<h2>什么可能扭转局面？</h2>
<p>尽管 AGNC 经历了艰难的时期，但现在股票的形势看起来要好得多。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔已暗示可能会进一步降息，而美联储自己的预测也指向未来几年利率将降低。这将为 AGNC 创造一个更好的环境。</p>
<p>美联储降息可能会以两种主要方式惠及 AGNC。首先，这可能会降低其短期融资成本；AGNC 试图借钱投资于长期和高收益的 MBS。其次，较低的利率可能会通过提升 MBS 的估值来帮助提高其 TBV。</p>
<p>过去几年，国债收益率曲线出现倒挂，这意味着短期国债（如两年期国债）的收益率高于长期国债（如十年期国债）。毫不奇怪，这对一家依靠短期和长期利率之间的利差来产生收入的公司来说并不是一个好环境。</p>
<p>现在，AGNC 积极对冲其融资成本，以更好地与其 MBS 资产的期限对齐。然而，它无法在较长时间内完全抵消来自倒挂曲线的压力。不过，随着收益曲线在去年底从倒挂转为正向（长期收益率高于短期收益率），AGNC 有望从更宽的利差中受益。</p>
<p>如果 MBS 收益率开始下降，AGNC 的投资组合也处于良好位置。超过 80% 的持有资产的票息为 6% 或更低，这有助于限制提前还款风险。提前还款风险在房主开始再融资为低利率抵押贷款时最高，这迫使抵押贷款 REIT 重新投资于低收益的 MBS。</p>
<h2>股息安全吗？</h2>
<p>虽然高股息收益率具有吸引力，但它们也可能是一个警告信号。然而，AGNC 在非常困难的环境中维持了分红，尽管有时以降低有形账面价值为代价。</p>
<p>说股息完全安全并不公平，但如果收益曲线继续陡峭化，股息应该会变得更可持续。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA1ODMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ3NDc4MDEwMS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA1ODMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ3NDc4MDEwMS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>AGNC 现在值得购买吗？</h2>
<p>如果 MBS 与国债的收益差从历史宽幅水平缩小，随着银行或其他机构重新进入 MBS 市场，AGNC 可能会在其账面价值和股价上看到显著恢复。这是最佳情况。然而，即使没有发生这种情况，AGNC 仍然有空间提供稳健的总回报。</p>
<p>该公司每月支付每股 0.12 美元的股息，按最近的股价计算，收益率约为 16%。仅凭这项股息收入，它在一个似乎停滞的市场中处于强势地位。即使投资组合价值恢复稍微温和，AGNC 在未来几年也可能实现 20% 到 25% 的年总回报。</p>
<p>总体而言，我认为 AGNC 是一项高风险、高回报的收入投资。然而，该股票已经承受了来自高利率和宽 MBS 与国债收益差的冲击，而当前环境可能终于开始向其有利转变。变数在于历史上宽的 MBS 与国债收益差是否开始缩小，因为如果缩小，潜在收益可能会非常可观。</p>
<p>对于理解并能接受风险的投资者来说，AGNC 提供了非常高的收益率和强劲的潜在上行空间。这不是一只可以随意放置的股票，但在当前价格下，它可能是未来几年收入导向投资者的明智选择。</p>

美国资本代理公司

<p>AGNC Investment 是一家抵押贷款房地产投资信托，提供约 16% 的高股息收益率。然而，由于抵押贷款利率上升以及其有形账面价值（TBV）大幅下降，该公司的股票已经下跌，TBV 从 2021 年到 2023 年下降了 45%。尽管面临这些挑战，潜在的美联储降息可能会改善 AGNC 的融资成本和抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）估值，使该股票更具吸引力。虽然股息并非完全安全，但如果收益率曲线变陡，它仍然是可持续的。如果 MBS 与国债的收益率差缩小，AGNC 可能会看到其账面价值和股价的恢复</p>

<p><strong>AGNC Investment</strong>(AGNC 0.94%) has one of the highest dividend yields in the market, sitting at about 16%. But with a stock price that's steadily declined the past few years, investors are right to ask: Is the payout sustainable, and more importantly, is the stock a buy today?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>AGNC Investment</strong>（AGNC 0.94%）在市场上拥有最高的股息收益率之一，约为 16%。但由于过去几年股价稳步下滑，投资者有理由问：这项分红是否可持续，更重要的是，今天的股票是否值得购买？</p>
</div><p>For those unfamiliar, AGNC is a mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) that owns agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), primarily guaranteed by <strong>Fannie Mae</strong> and <strong>Freddie Mac</strong>. Because these securities are backed by government agencies, they carry virtually no credit risk. But AGNC's business is far from risk-free, and here's where the story gets complicated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于不熟悉的人来说，AGNC 是一家抵押贷款房地产投资信托（mREIT），拥有主要由 <strong>房利美</strong> 和 <strong>房地美</strong> 担保的机构抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）。由于这些证券由政府机构担保，因此几乎没有信用风险。但 AGNC 的业务远非无风险，这里故事变得复杂。</p>
</div><h2>Why AGNC has struggled</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>AGNC 为何挣扎</h2>
</div><p>The biggest issue facing AGNC the past few years has been higher mortgage interest rates. There have been two main issues that have pushed up rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去几年，AGNC 面临的最大问题是抵押贷款利率上升。推动利率上升的主要有两个问题。</p>
</div><p>One is that the Federal Reserve aggressively raised benchmark interest rates a couple of years ago to combat inflation. This resulted in mortgage rates also climbing. However, that was not the only reason mortgage rates shot up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其一是美联储在几年前为了应对通货膨胀而大幅提高基准利率。这导致抵押贷款利率也随之攀升。然而，这并不是抵押贷款利率飙升的唯一原因。</p>
</div><p>Spreads between MBS yields and Treasury yields also began to significantly widen. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed was a huge buyer of MBSs, driving down yields and narrowing the yield spread between MBS and Treasuries. However, after the pandemic, it stopped purchasing MBSs and began letting them roll off its balance sheet as they matured. About the same time, banks also began to back off buying MBS as bond prices fell, and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, which was heavily concentrated in long-duration MBSs, only pushed banks further away from the MBS market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MBS 收益率与国债收益率之间的利差也开始显著扩大。在 COVID-19 大流行期间，美联储是 MBS 的巨大买家，压低了收益率并缩小了 MBS 与国债之间的收益差。然而，在大流行之后，美联储停止了购买 MBS，并开始让其到期后从资产负债表中剔除。大约在同一时间，随着债券价格下跌，银行也开始减少购买 MBS，而硅谷银行的倒闭（该行重仓长期 MBS）更是使银行进一步远离 MBS 市场。</p>
</div><p>During this period, the value of AGNC's MBS portfolio, as measured by its tangible book value (TBV), plunged. From the end of 2021 through the end of 2023, AGNC's tangible book dropped 45% from $15.75 to $8.70 per share. It has slipped a bit further since, and stood at $8.25 at the end of Q1 2025. Ultimately, where AGNC's TBV goes, its stock is sure to follow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在此期间，AGNC 的 MBS 投资组合的价值（以其有形账面价值（TBV）衡量）暴跌。从 2021 年底到 2023 年底，AGNC 的有形账面价值从每股 15.75 美元下降了 45%，降至 8.70 美元。此后又略微下滑，截至 2025 年第一季度末为 8.25 美元。最终，AGNC 的 TBV 走向哪里，其股票必然会跟随。</p>
</div><h2>What could turn things around?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>什么可能扭转局面？</h2>
</div><p>Despite the rough stretch that AGNC has seen, the setup for the stock now looks a lot more favorable. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has signaled that more rate cuts could be on the table, and the Fed's own projections point to lower rates in the years ahead. That should be a much better environment for AGNC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 AGNC 经历了艰难的时期，但现在股票的形势看起来要好得多。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔已暗示可能会进一步降息，而美联储自己的预测也指向未来几年利率将降低。这将为 AGNC 创造一个更好的环境。</p>
</div><p>Fed rate cuts could benefit AGNC in two main ways. First, it would likely reduce its short-term funding costs; AGNC tries to borrow money to invest in MBSs with longer maturities and higher yields. Second, lower rates could help increase its TBV by boosting MBS valuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储降息可能会以两种主要方式惠及 AGNC。首先，这可能会降低其短期融资成本；AGNC 试图借钱投资于长期和高收益的 MBS。其次，较低的利率可能会通过提升 MBS 的估值来帮助提高其 TBV。</p>
</div><p>The past few years, the Treasury yield curve was inverted, which means that shorter-term Treasuries, like the two-year, had a higher yield than long-term Treasuries, like the 10-year. Not surprisingly, this is not a good environment for a company that generates its income from the spread between short- and long-term rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去几年，国债收益率曲线出现倒挂，这意味着短期国债（如两年期国债）的收益率高于长期国债（如十年期国债）。毫不奇怪，这对一家依靠短期和长期利率之间的利差来产生收入的公司来说并不是一个好环境。</p>
</div><p>Now, AGNC actively hedges out its funding costs to better align them with the duration of its MBS assets. However, it's not able to fully offset the pressure from an inverted curve over an extended period of time. With the yield curve flipping from inverted to positive (long-term yields being higher than short-term yields) late last year, though, AGNC stands to benefit from wider spreads.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，AGNC 积极对冲其融资成本，以更好地与其 MBS 资产的期限对齐。然而，它无法在较长时间内完全抵消来自倒挂曲线的压力。不过，随着收益曲线在去年底从倒挂转为正向（长期收益率高于短期收益率），AGNC 有望从更宽的利差中受益。</p>
</div><p>AGNC's portfolio is also well-positioned if MBS yields begin to fall. More than 80% of its holdings carry coupons of 6% or lower, which helps limit prepayment risk. Prepayment risk is highest when homeowners begin to refinance into lower-rate mortgages, forcing mortgage REITs to reinvest in lower-yielding MBS.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 MBS 收益率开始下降，AGNC 的投资组合也处于良好位置。超过 80% 的持有资产的票息为 6% 或更低，这有助于限制提前还款风险。提前还款风险在房主开始再融资为低利率抵押贷款时最高，这迫使抵押贷款 REIT 重新投资于低收益的 MBS。</p>
</div><h2>Is the dividend safe?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>股息安全吗？</h2>
</div><p>While high dividend yields are attractive, they can also be a warning sign. However, AGNC has maintained the payout through a very difficult environment, albeit sometimes at the expense of a lower tangible book value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然高股息收益率具有吸引力，但它们也可能是一个警告信号。然而，AGNC 在非常困难的环境中维持了分红，尽管有时以降低有形账面价值为代价。</p>
</div><p>It's not fair to say the dividend is completely safe, but if the yield curve continues to steepen, the dividend should become more sustainable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>说股息完全安全并不公平，但如果收益曲线继续陡峭化，股息应该会变得更可持续。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA1ODMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ3NDc4MDEwMS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F820583%2Fgettyimages-1474780101.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Is AGNC a buy right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>AGNC 现在值得购买吗？</h2>
</div><p>If MBS-to-Treasury yield spreads narrow from historically wide levels as banks or other institutions reenter the MBS market, AGNC could see a meaningful recovery in both its book value and share price. That's the best-case scenario. However, even if that doesn't play out, AGNC still has room to deliver solid total returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 MBS 与国债的收益差从历史宽幅水平缩小，随着银行或其他机构重新进入 MBS 市场，AGNC 可能会在其账面价值和股价上看到显著恢复。这是最佳情况。然而，即使没有发生这种情况，AGNC 仍然有空间提供稳健的总回报。</p>
</div><p>The company pays a monthly dividend of $0.12 per share, which equates to a yield of about 16% based on recent prices for the stock. That dividend income alone puts it in a strong position to outperform in a market that seems to have stalled. With even a modest portfolio value recovery, AGNC could deliver annual 20% to 25% total returns during the next few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司每月支付每股 0.12 美元的股息，按最近的股价计算，收益率约为 16%。仅凭这项股息收入，它在一个似乎停滞的市场中处于强势地位。即使投资组合价值恢复稍微温和，AGNC 在未来几年也可能实现 20% 到 25% 的年总回报。</p>
</div><p>Overall, I'd consider AGNC a high-risk, high-reward income play. However, the stock has already taken the brunt of the blow from higher interest rates and wide MBS-to-Treasury yield spreads, and the current environment may finally be turning in its favor. The wild card is whether historically wide MBS-to-Treasury spreads begin to narrow, because if they do, the upside could be significant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，我认为 AGNC 是一项高风险、高回报的收入投资。然而，该股票已经承受了来自高利率和宽 MBS 与国债收益差的冲击，而当前环境可能终于开始向其有利转变。变数在于历史上宽的 MBS 与国债收益差是否开始缩小，因为如果缩小，潜在收益可能会非常可观。</p>
</div><p>For investors who understand and are comfortable with the risks, AGNC offers a very high yield with strong potential upside. It's not a set-it-and-forget-it stock, but at current prices, it could be a smart investment for income-focused investors during the next few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于理解并能接受风险的投资者来说，AGNC 提供了非常高的收益率和强劲的潜在上行空间。这不是一只可以随意放置的股票，但在当前价格下，它可能是未来几年收入导向投资者的明智选择。</p>
</div>

AGNC Investment: Its High Yield Looks Tempting -- Why the Stock May Be Ready to Rebound

- AGNC Investment 的股息收益率约为 16%，但股价持续下跌。  
- 主要问题是高抵押贷款利率和 MBS 与国债收益率的差距扩大。  
- 若利率下降，AGNC 可能实现股价和账面价值的显著回升。

美国资本代理公司的高收益看起来很诱人——为什么该股票可能会准备反弹