<p>一百万美元足以改变大多数人的生活。例如，将这笔钱投入到相对低风险的资产，如 30 年期国债，可以让你获得超过美国中位年收入的收益，而不减少本金。但是，虽然投资一百万美元很简单，但赚到这笔钱却要困难得多。</p>
<p>要在股市中获得多倍回报，通常需要押注于具有强大经济护城河和庞大可寻址市场的创新公司。<strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 1.26%）历史上符合这一标准，其行业领先的人工智能（AI）芯片就是例证。尽管如此，过去的回报并不能保证未来的成功。让我们深入探讨一下，这家巨型科技公司是否仍然是长期赢家。</p>
<h2>第一季度财报喜忧参半</h2>
<p>许多分析师对 Nvidia 的第一季度业绩持乐观态度，其销售额同比增长 69%，达到 441 亿美元，净收入增长 31%，达到 221 亿美元。大型科技公司继续向 Nvidia 的硬件投入数十亿美元，以运行和训练其生成式 AI 工作负载。Nvidia 的首席执行官黄仁勋继续保持乐观的语气，声称整个国家开始意识到 AI 是与电力、水和互联网并列的 “基础设施”。</p>
<p>然而，在热潮背后，有一些迹象表明 Nvidia 的业务正在放缓。尽管今年销售额增长了 69%，但与上个季度相比，这一增速有所放缓，上个季度的增长率为 78%。此外，Nvidia 的毛利率也在缩小（从上个季度的 73% 降至本季度的 60.5%）。净收入实际上比上个季度下降了 15%——这是事情正在变化的无可否认的迹象。</p>
<p>部分疲软源于中国近期的监管挑战，特朗普政府使 Nvidia 更难销售其 H20 芯片，导致因过剩库存和未履行购买义务而产生 45 亿美元的减值损失。尽管 Nvidia 计划通过新产品重新进入市场，但投资者应牢记持续监管挫折的风险。</p>
<p>从长远来看，Nvidia 将面临来自本土中国竞争对手的挑战，例如华为，后者旨在通过自身的先进 AI 芯片来争夺市场份额。而且，目前尚不清楚中国消费者是否会愿意围绕可能随时被美国政府收回的 Nvidia 硬件来建立他们的业务。</p>
<p>Nvidia 在美国也面临挑战，主要客户如 OpenAI 正在投资自己的定制芯片设计能力，以减少对 Nvidia 和其他第三方硬件供应商的依赖。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA3OTMvaGFwcHktaW52ZXN0b3ItdGhyb3dpbmctbW9uZXktMTQ4ODQ1OTA5NS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA3OTMvaGFwcHktaW52ZXN0b3ItdGhyb3dpbmctbW9uZXktMTQ4ODQ1OTA5NS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2><strong>投资者应改变对 Nvidia 的看法</strong></h2>
<p>Nvidia 历史上一直是一只能够带来多倍回报的成长股。然而，随着其当前市值达到 3.4 万亿美元，这种可能性正在降低。如果 Nvidia 能够重复自 2020 年以来享有的 1500% 的回报，其市值将膨胀至 51 万亿美元。这将超过目前总值约 30 万亿美元的纳斯达克股票交易所所有公司的总和。</p>
<p>虽然这种扩张在技术上是可能的，但即使在最佳情况下，这看起来也不太可能。尽管 Nvidia 拥有强大的护城河，但自由市场资本主义通常会导致竞争和利润下降，这已经在 Nvidia 最近的财报中显现出来。</p>
<p>也就是说，尽管 Nvidia 可能太大而无法成为典型的百万富翁制造股，但这并不意味着它不能以其他方式为投资者带来价值。考虑到公司的增长率，Nvidia 的前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 32.4，股票仍然相对可负担得起。投资者应期待 Nvidia 最终开始通过分红和回购将其巨额利润的一部分回馈给股东，这可以帮助支持缓慢而稳定的股价上涨。</p>

英伟达

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英伟达最近公布的第一季度财报显示，销售额增长了 69%，达到 441 亿美元，净收入增长了 31%，达到 221 亿美元。然而，增长速度正在放缓，销售增速从上个季度的 78% 降至当前水平，毛利率也从 73% 降至 60.5%。在中国面临的监管挑战以及来自当地公司的竞争构成了风险。尽管英伟达的市值达到 3.4 万亿美元，使得实现多倍回报的可能性不大，但它仍可能通过分红和回购提供价值，尽管其规模过大，难以复制过去的增长率</p>

<p>A million dollars is enough to change most people's lives. For example, putting that money into relatively low-risk assets like 30-year Treasury bonds would earn you more than the U.S.'s median annual income without reducing the principal. But while investing a million dollars is easy, making it is significantly harder.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一百万美元足以改变大多数人的生活。例如，将这笔钱投入到相对低风险的资产，如 30 年期国债，可以让你获得超过美国中位年收入的收益，而不减少本金。但是，虽然投资一百万美元很简单，但赚到这笔钱却要困难得多。</p>
</div><p>To earn multibagger returns in the stock market, you typically have to bet on innovative companies with strong economic moats and massive addressable markets. <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 1.26%) has historically fit this bill with its industry-leading artificial intelligence (AI) chips. That said, past returns don't guarantee future success. Let's dig deeper to see if this megacap technology leader is still a long-term winner.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要在股市中获得多倍回报，通常需要押注于具有强大经济护城河和庞大可寻址市场的创新公司。<strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 1.26%）历史上符合这一标准，其行业领先的人工智能（AI）芯片就是例证。尽管如此，过去的回报并不能保证未来的成功。让我们深入探讨一下，这家巨型科技公司是否仍然是长期赢家。</p>
</div><h2>First-quarter earnings were a mixed bag</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>第一季度财报喜忧参半</h2>
</div><p>Many analysts were optimistic about Nvidia's first-quarter results, which saw its sales jump by 69% year over year to $44.1 billion while net income increased by 31% to $22.1 billion. Big tech companies continue to pour billions into Nvidia's hardware to run and train their generative AI workloads. And Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, continues to strike an optimistic tone, claiming that entire countries are beginning to realize that AI is an &#34;essential infrastructure&#34; alongside electricity, water, and the internet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多分析师对 Nvidia 的第一季度业绩持乐观态度，其销售额同比增长 69%，达到 441 亿美元，净收入增长 31%，达到 221 亿美元。大型科技公司继续向 Nvidia 的硬件投入数十亿美元，以运行和训练其生成式 AI 工作负载。Nvidia 的首席执行官黄仁勋继续保持乐观的语气，声称整个国家开始意识到 AI 是与电力、水和互联网并列的 “基础设施”。</p>
</div><p>However, behind the hype, there are some signs that Nvidia's business is slowing. While sales grew 69% this year, that represents a deceleration from last quarter when they grew by 78% compared to the prior-year period. Furthermore, Nvidia's gross margins are also shrinking (down from 73% last quarter to 60.5% this quarter). Net income actually fell by 15% from the previous quarter -- an undeniable sign that things are changing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在热潮背后，有一些迹象表明 Nvidia 的业务正在放缓。尽管今年销售额增长了 69%，但与上个季度相比，这一增速有所放缓，上个季度的增长率为 78%。此外，Nvidia 的毛利率也在缩小（从上个季度的 73% 降至本季度的 60.5%）。净收入实际上比上个季度下降了 15%——这是事情正在变化的无可否认的迹象。</p>
</div><p>Some of the weakness is due to recent regulatory challenges in China, where the Trump administration made it harder for Nvidia to sell its H20 chips, leading to a $4.5 billion impairment charge based on losses on excess inventory and failed purchase obligations. And while Nvidia plans to reenter the market with new products, investors should keep in mind the risk of continued regulatory setbacks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>部分疲软源于中国近期的监管挑战，特朗普政府使 Nvidia 更难销售其 H20 芯片，导致因过剩库存和未履行购买义务而产生 45 亿美元的减值损失。尽管 Nvidia 计划通过新产品重新进入市场，但投资者应牢记持续监管挫折的风险。</p>
</div><p>Over the long term, Nvidia will face competition from homegrown Chinese rivals such as Huawei, which aims to take its market share with advanced AI chips of its own. And it is unclear if Chinese consumers will be comfortable building their businesses around Nvidia hardware that can be taken away at the whim of the U.S. government.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从长远来看，Nvidia 将面临来自本土中国竞争对手的挑战，例如华为，后者旨在通过自身的先进 AI 芯片来争夺市场份额。而且，目前尚不清楚中国消费者是否会愿意围绕可能随时被美国政府收回的 Nvidia 硬件来建立他们的业务。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia also faces challenges in the U.S., where major customers like OpenAI are investing in their own custom chip design capacity to reduce their reliance on Nvidia and other third-party hardware suppliers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 在美国也面临挑战，主要客户如 OpenAI 正在投资自己的定制芯片设计能力，以减少对 Nvidia 和其他第三方硬件供应商的依赖。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA3OTMvaGFwcHktaW52ZXN0b3ItdGhyb3dpbmctbW9uZXktMTQ4ODQ1OTA5NS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F820793%2Fhappy-investor-throwing-money-1488459095.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Investors should change how they look at Nvidia</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>投资者应改变对 Nvidia 的看法</strong></h2>
</div><p>Nvidia has historically been a growth stock capable of multibagger returns. However, with its current market cap of $3.4 trillion, this is becoming less likely. If Nvidia were to repeat the 1,500% return it has enjoyed since 2020, its market cap would swell to $51 trillion. That would be more than the combined value of all companies on the NASDAQ stock exchange, which currently totals approximately $30 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 历史上一直是一只能够带来多倍回报的成长股。然而，随着其当前市值达到 3.4 万亿美元，这种可能性正在降低。如果 Nvidia 能够重复自 2020 年以来享有的 1500% 的回报，其市值将膨胀至 51 万亿美元。这将超过目前总值约 30 万亿美元的纳斯达克股票交易所所有公司的总和。</p>
</div><p>While this level of expansion is technically possible, it looks doubtful, even in the best-case scenario. Even though Nvidia has a strong moat, free-market capitalism typically leads to competition and falling margins, which already begins to show up in Nvidia's most recent earnings report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这种扩张在技术上是可能的，但即使在最佳情况下，这看起来也不太可能。尽管 Nvidia 拥有强大的护城河，但自由市场资本主义通常会导致竞争和利润下降，这已经在 Nvidia 最近的财报中显现出来。</p>
</div><p>That said, although Nvidia might be too big to be a typical millionaire-maker stock, that doesn't mean it can't return value to investors in other ways. With a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 32.4, shares are still reasonably affordable, considering the company's growth rate. Investors should expect Nvidia to eventually start returning some of its massive profits to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, which can help support slow and steady stock price appreciation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，尽管 Nvidia 可能太大而无法成为典型的百万富翁制造股，但这并不意味着它不能以其他方式为投资者带来价值。考虑到公司的增长率，Nvidia 的前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 32.4，股票仍然相对可负担得起。投资者应期待 Nvidia 最终开始通过分红和回购将其巨额利润的一部分回馈给股东，这可以帮助支持缓慢而稳定的股价上涨。</p>
</div>

Is Nvidia Still a Millionaire-Maker Stock?

- Nvidia 第一季度销售同比增长 69%，达到 441 亿美元，净收入增长 31% 至 221 亿美元。  
- 然而，销售增速放缓，毛利率下降，面临中国监管挑战和竞争压力。  
- 投资者应重新评估 Nvidia，尽管其市值庞大，仍可能通过分红和回购为股东创造价值。  

英伟达是否仍然是一只能造就百万富翁的股票？