<p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 1.79%) 的股价在 2025 年下跌了 18%（截至 6 月 6 日）。这使得苹果成为今年表现最差的 “七大巨头” 成分股，仅次于 <strong>特斯拉</strong>。投资者可能对关税的不确定性感到担忧，以及公司在人工智能（AI）方面的进展缓慢。</p>
<p>该股票目前比其峰值低 21%。因此，它需要付出一些努力才能恢复往日的辉煌。传奇投资者沃伦·巴菲特及其控股公司 <strong>伯克希尔·哈撒韦</strong> 在过去几个季度出售了相当大一部分的股份。</p>
<p>然而，你是否应该逆势而为，趁低买入苹果股票？我认为答案可能会让你感到惊讶。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA5MjgvYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stYnV0dG9ucy1vbi1zdG9jay1jaGFydC10YWJsZXQuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="425" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA5MjgvYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stYnV0dG9ucy1vbi1zdG9jay1jaGFydC10YWJsZXQuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>容易识别的积极特征</h2>
<p>我提到巴菲特是因为许多个人投资者喜欢跟随他的买卖决策。显然，当伯克希尔在 2016 年初首次购买苹果时，他们一定认为这家科技巨头是一家高质量的企业。这并不难理解。</p>
<p>苹果的品牌可以说是世界上最具辨识度的品牌。这一地位并非一朝一夕所能建立，而是经过多年推出真正卓越的产品和服务，设计精良且极易使用，才在全球范围内形成的。苹果无疑是一个标志性品牌。</p>
<p>这个品牌帮助推动了苹果的定价能力。这支持了公司无与伦比的财务状况。苹果仍然是一家令人难以置信的盈利企业。在最新的财季（2025 财年第二季度截至 3 月 29 日），其净收入达到了 248 亿美元。</p>
<p>苹果的产品和服务本身就令人印象深刻。然而，正是这两者的结合创造了强大的生态系统。消费者基本上被锁定在其中，这为他们转向竞争产品设置了高门槛。这种有利的局面使苹果在竞争中处于令人羡慕的位置。</p>
<h2>即使是最好的也会面临问题</h2>
<p>尽管苹果的市值接近 3.1 万亿美元，这可能让一些投资者认为它免受外部挑战，但这家公司最近确实面临一些显著问题。有三个问题立刻浮现在脑海中。</p>
<p>第一个问题是苹果的增长引擎似乎正在衰退。从 2021 财年到 2024 财年，净销售额增长不到 7%。而在 2025 财年的前六个月，增长仅略超过 4%。根据管理层的说法，全球可能有超过 24 亿台活跃的苹果设备。这个数字随着每个季度的推移而持续上升，但你可以想象这些产品的普及程度。此外，iPhone 的成熟度，现已进入近二十年的生命周期，可能导致进一步渗透市场的机会有限。</p>
<p>批评者还可以指出苹果在人工智能竞赛中的缓慢进入。例如，我们要到明年才能看到 Siri 的 AI 更新，这一发布被推迟。同时，似乎其他公司正在迅速行动以赢得 AI 竞赛。</p>
<p>最后，苹果一直受到关税形势的严重影响，并可能继续受到影响。中国在持续的贸易紧张局势中，受到了特朗普总统的高度关注，一直是苹果的制造强国。该公司被迫调整其供应链，以尽量减少影响。苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克表示，这种情况使得预测短期业绩变得具有挑战性。</p>
<h2>没有安全边际</h2>
<p>尽管这只股票比其峰值低 21%，但投资者并没有真正获得一个便宜的交易。当前的市盈率为 32。这对于一家预计在 2024 财年至 2027 财年之间每股收益仅增长 8.8% 复合年率的公司来说，并不便宜。</p>
<p>在我看来，没有安全边际。如果你是一位希望在未来五年内获得超越市场回报的投资者，我认为你今天不应该购买苹果。</p>

苹果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

苹果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

苹果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>苹果的股价较峰值下跌了 21%，成为 2025 年 “七大巨头” 中表现最差的公司。关税不确定性和人工智能进展缓慢的担忧加剧了这一下滑。尽管品牌强大且盈利能力良好，苹果的增长正在放缓，从 2021 年到 2024 年，净销售额的增长不足 7%。该股票的市盈率为 32，表明对投资者来说并没有便宜可言，预计到 2027 年，盈利增长仅为每年 8.8%。结论指出，现在购买苹果股票可能无法获得超越市场的回报</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 1.79%) shares are down 18% in 2025 (as of June 6). This makes Apple the worst-performing &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; constituent this year, besides <strong>Tesla</strong>. Investors are probably concerned about tariff uncertainty and the company's slow progress with artificial intelligence (AI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 1.79%) 的股价在 2025 年下跌了 18%（截至 6 月 6 日）。这使得苹果成为今年表现最差的 “七大巨头” 成分股，仅次于 <strong>特斯拉</strong>。投资者可能对关税的不确定性感到担忧，以及公司在人工智能（AI）方面的进展缓慢。</p>
</div><p>The stock is currently 21% below its peak. So, it has some work to do to get back to its former glory. Legendary investor Warren Buffett and his conglomerate, <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>, have sold a sizable chunk of their shares in the past several quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该股票目前比其峰值低 21%。因此，它需要付出一些努力才能恢复往日的辉煌。传奇投资者沃伦·巴菲特及其控股公司 <strong>伯克希尔·哈撒韦</strong> 在过去几个季度出售了相当大一部分的股份。</p>
</div><p>However, should you go against the Oracle of Omaha's moves and buy the dip on Apple stock? I think the answer might surprise you.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，你是否应该逆势而为，趁低买入苹果股票？我认为答案可能会让你感到惊讶。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA5MjgvYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stYnV0dG9ucy1vbi1zdG9jay1jaGFydC10YWJsZXQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F820928%2Fbuy-sell-stock-buttons-on-stock-chart-tablet.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>It's easy to recognize the positive traits</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>容易识别的积极特征</h2>
</div><p>I mention Buffett because many individual investors like to follow his buy and sell decisions. Clearly, when Berkshire first bought Apple in early 2016, they must've thought the tech giant was a high-quality enterprise. It's not hard to see why.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我提到巴菲特是因为许多个人投资者喜欢跟随他的买卖决策。显然，当伯克希尔在 2016 年初首次购买苹果时，他们一定认为这家科技巨头是一家高质量的企业。这并不难理解。</p>
</div><p>Apple's brand is arguably the most recognizable in the world. This position wasn't created overnight. It took years and years of introducing truly exceptional products and services, that were well designed and incredibly easy to use, on a global scale. Apple is an icon, to say the least.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果的品牌可以说是世界上最具辨识度的品牌。这一地位并非一朝一夕所能建立，而是经过多年推出真正卓越的产品和服务，设计精良且极易使用，才在全球范围内形成的。苹果无疑是一个标志性品牌。</p>
</div><p>That brand has helped drive Apple's pricing power. And this supports the company's unrivaled financial position. Apple remains an unbelievably profitable business. It brought in $24.8 billion in net income in the latest fiscal quarter (Q2 2025 ended March 29).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个品牌帮助推动了苹果的定价能力。这支持了公司无与伦比的财务状况。苹果仍然是一家令人难以置信的盈利企业。在最新的财季（2025 财年第二季度截至 3 月 29 日），其净收入达到了 248 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Apple's products and services are impressive on their own. However, it's the combination of both of these aspects that creates the powerful ecosystem. Consumers are essentially locked in, which creates high barriers for them to switch to competing products. This favorable setup places Apple in an enviable position from a competitive perspective.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果的产品和服务本身就令人印象深刻。然而，正是这两者的结合创造了强大的生态系统。消费者基本上被锁定在其中，这为他们转向竞争产品设置了高门槛。这种有利的局面使苹果在竞争中处于令人羡慕的位置。</p>
</div><h2>Even the best deal with issues</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>即使是最好的也会面临问题</h2>
</div><p>Despite Apple's market cap of nearly $3.1 trillion, which might make some investors believe it's immune to external challenges, this business is dealing with some notable issues recently. There are three that immediately come to mind.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管苹果的市值接近 3.1 万亿美元，这可能让一些投资者认为它免受外部挑战，但这家公司最近确实面临一些显著问题。有三个问题立刻浮现在脑海中。</p>
</div><p>The first problem is that Apple's growth engine seems to be decaying. Net sales were up less than 7% between fiscal 2021 and fiscal 2024. And they're up just over 4% through the first six months of fiscal 2025. According to management, there are likely over 2.4 billion active Apple devices across the globe. That number continues to rise with every passing quarter, but you get an idea of how ubiquitous these products are. Plus, the maturity of the iPhone, now almost two decades into its lifecycle, might lead to limited opportunities to further penetrate markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第一个问题是苹果的增长引擎似乎正在衰退。从 2021 财年到 2024 财年，净销售额增长不到 7%。而在 2025 财年的前六个月，增长仅略超过 4%。根据管理层的说法，全球可能有超过 24 亿台活跃的苹果设备。这个数字随着每个季度的推移而持续上升，但你可以想象这些产品的普及程度。此外，iPhone 的成熟度，现已进入近二十年的生命周期，可能导致进一步渗透市场的机会有限。</p>
</div><p>Critics can also call out Apple's slow entrance into the AI race. For example, we won't see an AI update to Siri until next year, a launch that was delayed. At the same time, it seems like other companies are moving rapidly to win the AI race.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>批评者还可以指出苹果在人工智能竞赛中的缓慢进入。例如，我们要到明年才能看到 Siri 的 AI 更新，这一发布被推迟。同时，似乎其他公司正在迅速行动以赢得 AI 竞赛。</p>
</div><p>Lastly, Apple has been and could continue to be drastically impacted by the tariff situation. China, which has gotten the most attention from President Donald Trump during the ongoing trade tensions, has been a manufacturing powerhouse for Apple. The business is being forced to shift its supply chain around to minimize the impact. Apple CEO Tim Cook said that the situation makes it challenging to forecast near-term results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，苹果一直受到关税形势的严重影响，并可能继续受到影响。中国在持续的贸易紧张局势中，受到了特朗普总统的高度关注，一直是苹果的制造强国。该公司被迫调整其供应链，以尽量减少影响。苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克表示，这种情况使得预测短期业绩变得具有挑战性。</p>
</div><h2>There's no margin of safety</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>没有安全边际</h2>
</div><p>Even though this stock trades 21% off its peak, investors aren't really getting a bargain deal here. The price-to-earnings ratio is 32 right now. That's not cheap for a company whose earnings per share are only expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 8.8% between fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管这只股票比其峰值低 21%，但投资者并没有真正获得一个便宜的交易。当前的市盈率为 32。这对于一家预计在 2024 财年至 2027 财年之间每股收益仅增长 8.8% 复合年率的公司来说，并不便宜。</p>
</div><p>In my view, there's zero margin of safety. If you're an investor who wants to generate market-beating returns over the next five years, I don't think you should buy Apple today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，没有安全边际。如果你是一位希望在未来五年内获得超越市场回报的投资者，我认为你今天不应该购买苹果。</p>
</div>

Down 21%, Should You Buy the Dip on Apple Stock? The Answer Might Surprise You.

- 苹果公司 (AAPL) 股价在 2025 年下跌 18%，成为 “七大巨头” 中表现最差的股票。  
- 投资者担忧关税不确定性及人工智能进展缓慢，股价距离峰值下跌 21%。  
- 尽管苹果仍然盈利，但面临增长放缓和市场竞争加剧的挑战。  

苹果股票下跌了 21%，现在是否应该趁低买入？这个答案可能会让你感到意外