<p>这个价值 3 万亿美元的股票俱乐部并不大；它仅包括 <strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 0.72%)、<strong>微软</strong>(MSFT 0.48%) 和 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -1.09%)。<strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN 1.75%) 是全球第四大公司，但其当前市值约为 2.2 万亿美元，这显示出第三和第四名之间的巨大差距。</p>
<p>在这三家价值 3 万亿美元的公司中，现在是否值得投资？毕竟，它们已经相当庞大；它们还能变得更大吗？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA2NjEvcGVyc29uLXdpdGgtY2FsY3VhbHRvci1leGFtaW5pbmctZmluYW5jaWFsLWRhdGEuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA2NjEvcGVyc29uLXdpdGgtY2FsY3VhbHRvci1leGFtaW5pbmctZmluYW5jaWFsLWRhdGEuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>英伟达可能是全球最大的公司，但其产品并不像苹果或微软的产品那样为人所熟知</h2>
<p>苹果和微软无疑是这三家公司中最具知名度的。许多人每天都在使用苹果的产品，无论是 iPhone 还是其他苹果制造的硬件。微软也是如此，许多人在工作中使用微软办公软件的某个产品。然而，微软的业务范围远不止于此，其各种云计算产品占据了公司收入的相当大一部分。</p>
<p>英伟达则更加冷门，因为很少有人直接接触到英伟达的大部分产品。你可能在笔记本电脑或 PC 中使用了英伟达的显卡，但英伟达的大部分收入来自其数据中心的图形处理单元（GPU），这些 GPU 被广泛用于训练和运行人工智能模型。英伟达在这个市场上占据主导地位，大多数估计认为英伟达的市场份额超过 90%。</p>
<p>这三家公司在各自的行业中占据主导地位，这很有道理，因为只有最优秀的公司才能脱颖而出。然而，我认为这三家公司在未来五年将走上截然不同的道路，其中一家公司显然是最佳投资选择。</p>
<h2>英伟达的增长使其在其他两家公司中脱颖而出</h2>
<p>从收入的角度来看，苹果是最大的公司，但当考虑到利润时，这一差距会缩小。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/56a70cbd733a7e95b268980f88c33b8c.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="575" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/56a70cbd733a7e95b268980f88c33b8c.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 收入（TTM）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>然而，有一点值得注意的是，尽管英伟达目前是全球最大的公司，但其规模仍显著小于其他两家公司。这是因为英伟达拥有其他公司所没有的一个优势：增长。</p>
<p>尽管英伟达的增长开始略有放缓，但仍然非常迅猛。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4ab3603270cab14f787bafead419828e.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="473" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4ab3603270cab14f787bafead419828e.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 营业收入（季度同比增长）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>下个季度对英伟达来说也看起来很有前景，预计收入将同比增长 50%。这种放缓部分归因于美国政府禁止向中国出口其专为满足旧法规设计的 H20 芯片。尽管如此，50% 的增长仍然不值得担忧，因为这显示出对英伟达产品的强劲需求。</p>
<p>对英伟达产品的需求预计将持续。第三方估计显示，数据中心的建设在去年达到了 4000 亿美元，但到 2028 年将上升至 1 万亿美元。如果这一情况发生，英伟达的增长将继续迅猛，远超微软和苹果。</p>
<p>这使得英伟达成为我未来的首选，但微软也不是一个糟糕的选择，因为由于人工智能的推动，其云计算服务器的需求也在激增。</p>
<p>在这三家公司中，苹果是我唯一担心持有的股票。它几乎没有增长，并且在一段时间内没有展示出推出创新产品的能力。尽管如此，从前瞻市盈率（P/E）来看，它的交易价格与其他两家公司相比并没有太大折扣。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f28d3b9fd0c10b5f2a024dd128e0865d.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="473" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f28d3b9fd0c10b5f2a024dd128e0865d.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 市盈率（前瞻）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>考虑到苹果预计的增长缓慢（华尔街分析师预计 2025 财年的收入增长为 4.1%，2026 财年的收入增长为 5.9%），我认为苹果不应享有超过市场平均水平的溢价。考虑到 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 的前瞻市盈率为 22.4 倍，苹果的股价可能还有很大的下跌空间。</p>
<p>在未来五年中，我预计英伟达将大幅跑赢市场，微软将略微超越市场，而苹果将表现不佳。英伟达的增长是前所未有的，它可能会推动其成为首个市值达到 5 万亿美元的公司。</p>

<p>这篇文章讨论了价值 3 万亿美元的股票俱乐部中的三大公司：英伟达、微软和苹果。虽然英伟达目前是最大的公司，但它因其快速增长而受到关注，特别是在人工智能领域，预计下个季度收入将增长 50%。微软也因其强劲的云计算需求而受到强调。相比之下，苹果由于增长缓慢和缺乏创新，被视为一个不太吸引的投资。作者预测，英伟达将在市场中表现优于大盘，微软将略微超越大盘，而苹果在未来五年内将表现不佳</p>

<p>The $3 trillion stock club isn't a big list; it's just <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 0.72%), <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT 0.48%), and <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -1.09%). <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 1.75%) is the fourth-largest company in the world, but it is currently valued at around $2.2 trillion, which showcases how large a gap there is between third and fourth place.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个价值 3 万亿美元的股票俱乐部并不大；它仅包括 <strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 0.72%)、<strong>微软</strong>(MSFT 0.48%) 和 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -1.09%)。<strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN 1.75%) 是全球第四大公司，但其当前市值约为 2.2 万亿美元，这显示出第三和第四名之间的巨大差距。</p>
</div><p>Of this $3 trillion trio, is there any worth owning right now? After all, they're already quite large; could they get even bigger?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这三家价值 3 万亿美元的公司中，现在是否值得投资？毕竟，它们已经相当庞大；它们还能变得更大吗？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA2NjEvcGVyc29uLXdpdGgtY2FsY3VhbHRvci1leGFtaW5pbmctZmluYW5jaWFsLWRhdGEuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F820661%2Fperson-with-calcualtor-examining-financial-data.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia may be the world's largest company, but its products aren't as familiar as Apple's or Microsoft's</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达可能是全球最大的公司，但其产品并不像苹果或微软的产品那样为人所熟知</h2>
</div><p>Apple and Microsoft are easily the most recognizable companies of this trio. Many people use Apple products daily, whether it's an iPhone or some other hardware Apple creates. Microsoft is similar, as many people utilize one of the Microsoft Office products at work. However, Microsoft is a much broader company than that, as its various cloud computing products make up a significant amount of the company's revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果和微软无疑是这三家公司中最具知名度的。许多人每天都在使用苹果的产品，无论是 iPhone 还是其他苹果制造的硬件。微软也是如此，许多人在工作中使用微软办公软件的某个产品。然而，微软的业务范围远不止于此，其各种云计算产品占据了公司收入的相当大一部分。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia is even more obscure, as few people interact with the bulk of Nvidia's products. You may have an Nvidia graphics card in your laptop or PC, but the bulk of Nvidia's revenue comes from its data center graphics processing units (GPUs), which have been widely deployed to train and run AI models. Nvidia has a dominant hold on this market, with most estimates stating that Nvidia's market share is greater than 90%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达则更加冷门，因为很少有人直接接触到英伟达的大部分产品。你可能在笔记本电脑或 PC 中使用了英伟达的显卡，但英伟达的大部分收入来自其数据中心的图形处理单元（GPU），这些 GPU 被广泛用于训练和运行人工智能模型。英伟达在这个市场上占据主导地位，大多数估计认为英伟达的市场份额超过 90%。</p>
</div><p>These three businesses have dominated their respective industries, which makes sense, as only the best rise to the top. However, I think these three companies will take very different paths over the next five years, with one company clearly being the best buy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这三家公司在各自的行业中占据主导地位，这很有道理，因为只有最优秀的公司才能脱颖而出。然而，我认为这三家公司在未来五年将走上截然不同的道路，其中一家公司显然是最佳投资选择。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia's growth makes it stand out from the other two</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达的增长使其在其他两家公司中脱颖而出</h2>
</div><p>From a revenue standpoint, Apple is the largest company, but that gap closes when profits are considered.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从收入的角度来看，苹果是最大的公司，但当考虑到利润时，这一差距会缩小。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/56a70cbd733a7e95b268980f88c33b8c.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/56a70cbd733a7e95b268980f88c33b8c.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 收入（TTM）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>However, one notable thing is that Nvidia is still significantly smaller than the other two, despite being the largest company in the world currently. That's because Nvidia has one thing that the others don't: growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，有一点值得注意的是，尽管英伟达目前是全球最大的公司，但其规模仍显著小于其他两家公司。这是因为英伟达拥有其他公司所没有的一个优势：增长。</p>
</div><p>Although Nvidia's growth has started to slow a bit, it's still incredibly rapid.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管英伟达的增长开始略有放缓，但仍然非常迅猛。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4ab3603270cab14f787bafead419828e.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4ab3603270cab14f787bafead419828e.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL Operating Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 营业收入（季度同比增长）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Next quarter also looks promising for Nvidia, with revenue expected to rise 50% year over year. Part of this slowdown can be attributed to the U.S. government banning exports to China of its H20 chip, which was specially designed to meet old regulations. Still, 50% growth is nothing to be worried about, as it showcases the strong demand for Nvidia's products.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下个季度对英伟达来说也看起来很有前景，预计收入将同比增长 50%。这种放缓部分归因于美国政府禁止向中国出口其专为满足旧法规设计的 H20 芯片。尽管如此，50% 的增长仍然不值得担忧，因为这显示出对英伟达产品的强劲需求。</p>
</div><p>Demand for Nvidia's products is expected to persist. Third-party estimates stated that data center buildouts reached $400 billion last year but will rise to $1 trillion by 2028. Should that occur, Nvidia's growth will continue to be rapid and far outpace Microsoft and Apple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对英伟达产品的需求预计将持续。第三方估计显示，数据中心的建设在去年达到了 4000 亿美元，但到 2028 年将上升至 1 万亿美元。如果这一情况发生，英伟达的增长将继续迅猛，远超微软和苹果。</p>
</div><p>This makes Nvidia my top pick moving forward, but Microsoft isn't a bad option either, as the demand for its cloud computing servers, thanks to AI, is also booming.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这使得英伟达成为我未来的首选，但微软也不是一个糟糕的选择，因为由于人工智能的推动，其云计算服务器的需求也在激增。</p>
</div><p>Apple is the only stock I'd be worried about owning from this trio. It is barely growing and hasn't showcased the ability to release an innovative product for some time. Despite this, it still doesn't trade at much of a discount to the other two from a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio standpoint.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这三家公司中，苹果是我唯一担心持有的股票。它几乎没有增长，并且在一段时间内没有展示出推出创新产品的能力。尽管如此，从前瞻市盈率（P/E）来看，它的交易价格与其他两家公司相比并没有太大折扣。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f28d3b9fd0c10b5f2a024dd128e0865d.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f28d3b9fd0c10b5f2a024dd128e0865d.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 市盈率（前瞻）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>With how slow Apple is expected to grow (Wall Street analysts estimate 4.1% revenue growth in fiscal year 2025 and 5.9% in fiscal year 2026), I'd argue that Apple deserves no more than a market-average premium. With the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> trading at 22.4 times forward earnings, Apple could have a long way to fall before trading at that level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到苹果预计的增长缓慢（华尔街分析师预计 2025 财年的收入增长为 4.1%，2026 财年的收入增长为 5.9%），我认为苹果不应享有超过市场平均水平的溢价。考虑到 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 的前瞻市盈率为 22.4 倍，苹果的股价可能还有很大的下跌空间。</p>
</div><p>Over the next five years, I project that Nvidia will massively outperform the market, Microsoft will slightly beat it, and Apple will underperform. Nvidia's growth is unprecedented, and it could propel it to become the first $5 trillion company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在未来五年中，我预计英伟达将大幅跑赢市场，微软将略微超越市场，而苹果将表现不佳。英伟达的增长是前所未有的，它可能会推动其成为首个市值达到 5 万亿美元的公司。</p>
</div>

Best $3 Trillion Stock to Buy Right Now: Apple, Microsoft, or Nvidia?

- 三家市值超过 3 万亿美元的公司为 Nvidia、Microsoft 和 Apple。  
- Nvidia 的增长潜力显著，预计未来五年将大幅超越市场。  
- Apple 增长缓慢，可能会低于市场平均水平。  

Motley Fool

苹果

英伟达

微软

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做多 MSFT ETF - GraniteShares

YieldMax MSFT Option Income Strategy ETF

微软每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

微软每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

T-Rex 2X Long Microsoft Daily Target ETF

Kurv Yield Premium Strategy Microsoft MSFT ETF

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

苹果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

苹果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

T-Rex 2X Long Apple Daily Target ETF

Kurv Yield Premium Strategy Apple Aapl ETF

YieldMax AAPL Option Income Strategy ETF

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

现在买入的最佳 3 万亿美元市值股票：苹果、微软还是英伟达？