<p>三十多年前，互联网的出现和普及开启了商业技术创新的最大飞跃。尽管自互联网革命以来，许多下一个大事件的创新相继出现，改变了企业与消费者的互动方式以及销售产品和服务的方式，但没有任何创新能够接近其长期可寻址的潜力……直到现在。</p>
<p>人工智能（AI）的崛起代表了下一个伟大的技术进步，能够改变美国企业的长期增长轨迹。通过赋予软件和系统 AI 解决方案，使其能够在没有人类干预的情况下做出决策，这项技术拥有令人瞩目的可寻址市场，普华永道的分析师预计到 2030 年这一市场将达到 15.7 万亿美元（全球）。</p>
<p>尽管许多公司从华尔街的热门趋势中受益，但半导体巨头 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 0.86%）已成为 AI 革命的代名词。正如在改变游戏规则的创新前沿的企业常常出现的情况一样，预测各不相同。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA5OTYvc2lsdmVyLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtdm9sdW1lLWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="525" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA5OTYvc2lsdmVyLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtdm9sdW1lLWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>一位华尔街分析师预测，所有科技股中最关键的股票将飙升至每股 220 美元，而另一位则认为它将暴跌至每股仅 100 美元。然而，最有趣的是，华尔街的高低价目标完全忽视了可以说是 Nvidia 最大催化剂的因素。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 是一个 5 万亿美元的企业吗？</h2>
<p>毫无疑问，绝大多数华尔街分析师和投资者认为 Nvidia 股票将会上涨。但没有任何价格预测比 Tigress Financial 的分析师 Ivan Feinseth 的预测更具说服力，他预计 Nvidia 的股票将上涨 55%，达到 220 美元。如果 Feinseth 的预测准确，Nvidia 的市值将接近 5.4 万亿美元。作为参考，2023 年初 Nvidia 的市值为 3600 亿美元。</p>
<p>Feinseth 的华尔街最高价格目标是基于对 Nvidia 图形处理单元（GPU）持续强劲需求的预期。Hopper（H100）及其后续产品 Blackwell GPU 占据了目前在 AI 加速数据中心中部署的 GPU 的绝大部分，而对这一硬件的需求没有显示出减缓的迹象。</p>
<p>一般来说，当某种商品或服务的需求超过其供应时，该商品或服务的价格将会上涨，直到需求减弱。在 Nvidia 的情况下，其 GPU 订单积压，这使得公司能够相对于直接竞争对手收取健康的溢价。最终结果是，与 AI 革命形成之前相比，公司毛利率显著上升。</p>
<p>Feinseth 在 1 月底发布的 220 美元价格目标是在 Nvidia 股票因中国 DeepSeek 推出 R1 大型语言模型（LLM）聊天机器人而短暂下跌后提出的。DeepSeek 被指控使用 Nvidia 的较慢且成本较低的硬件来开发其 LLM。Feinseth 的高价目标显示出对 Nvidia 能够保持其优越定价能力的信心。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 的股票会暴跌 30% 吗？</h2>
<p>另一方面，Seaport Global Investors 的分析师 Jay Goldberg 在 4 月底成为唯一一位将 Nvidia 股票评级为 “卖出” 的分析师，并设定了 100 美元的价格目标。根据 Nvidia 股票在 6 月 6 日结束时的价格，Goldberg 的价格目标暗示着近 30% 的下跌。</p>
<p>Goldberg 并不认为华尔街的 AI 宠儿会失去作为 AI 加速数据中心首选公司的领先地位。但他确实认为，AI 的乐观情绪已经完全反映在 Nvidia 的股票中，考虑到一些变量。</p>
<p>首先，Goldberg 指出，Nvidia 的一些主要客户正在内部开发自己的 AI-GPU 和解决方案。尽管这些芯片不会对 Hopper、Blackwell 或任何后续 GPU 构成外部竞争，但它们将显著便宜且更易于获取，这可能会对 Nvidia 从当前主要客户那里获得新订单造成问题。</p>
<p>Goldberg 还认为，企业客户将会扩展并从其他硬件供应商处采购。例如，<strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 的成本较低的 Instinct MI300X 系列 GPU，以及 <strong>Broadcom</strong> 的定制 AI 加速芯片，可能会随着时间的推移逐渐蚕食 Nvidia 在数据中心市场的垄断地位。</p>
<p>根据 Goldberg 的说法，预计到 2026 年，企业在 AI 数据中心基础设施上的支出将放缓，因此 Nvidia 的股票目前价格较高。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA5OTYvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtaW52ZXN0LWJyb2tlci10YWJsZXQtY3J5cHRvLXBsdW5nZS1idWJibGUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="464" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA5OTYvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtaW52ZXN0LWJyb2tlci10YWJsZXQtY3J5cHRvLXBsdW5nZS1idWJibGUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>华尔街的高低价目标完全忽视了这一关键催化剂</h2>
<p>尽管 Feinseth 和 Goldberg 都提出了令人信服的论点，但他们的论点——以及其他数十位分析师和机构对 Nvidia 股票设定的价格目标——完全忽视了与下一个大事件趋势和创新相关的历史催化剂。</p>
<p>尽管互联网被证明是一项改变游戏规则的技术，但它并不是一开始就普遍获胜。企业花了几年时间才弄清楚如何优化他们对消费者和其他企业的营销和销售。换句话说，互联网成熟为主流创新需要时间。</p>
<p>自互联网出现以来，我们见证了一系列其他高调的趋势、技术和创新，它们也经历了早期阶段的泡沫破裂事件。这包括（但不限于）基因解码、企业对企业的商业、纳米技术、3D 打印、大麻、区块链技术和元宇宙。</p>
<p>在过去的 30 多年里，投资者始终高估了颠覆性创新的主流采用和/或实用性的时间表。简而言之，投资者没有给予这些被炒作的趋势足够的时间或渠道来成熟。</p>
<p>尽管英伟达的销售额在 2023 财年到 2025 财年之间从 270 亿美元飙升至超过 1300 亿美元（其财年在 1 月底结束），但大多数企业目前仍远未优化其人工智能解决方案，甚至没有从其人工智能基础设施投资中获得正回报。这表明人工智能泡沫形成并在某个时刻破裂的可能性正在增加。</p>
<p>客观地说，这并不意味着英伟达不会成为长期赢家。互联网的普及最终推动了股市的飙升。虽然 Feinseth 的目标价格在短期内可能无法实现，但随着企业学习如何正确利用人工智能解决方案并从其激进的人工智能投资中获利，这无疑在可能性范围之内。</p>
<p>但这种下一件大事趋势与泡沫破裂事件之间的历史关联也表明，Goldberg 在未来几个季度更有可能是正确的——尽管并不是基于他在四月末研究报告中提出的理由。</p>

英伟达

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

<p>英伟达的股票预测在分析师之间差异很大，一位预测将上涨至 220 美元，另一位则预测将下跌至 100 美元。Tigress Financial 的 Ivan Feinseth 的乐观展望基于对英伟达 GPU 的强劲需求，这些 GPU 对人工智能数据中心至关重要。相反，Seaport Global 的 Jay Goldberg 警告称，由于竞争和市场饱和，可能会出现下滑，暗示人工智能的乐观情绪已经反映在价格中。这两位分析师都忽视了一个可能影响英伟达未来表现的重要催化因素</p>

<p>More than 30 years ago, the advent and proliferation of the internet kicked off the greatest leap forward in technological innovation for businesses in a <em>long</em> time. Though a number of next-big-thing innovations have come along since the internet revolutionized how businesses interact with consumers and sell their products and services, none have come close to matching its long-term addressable potential... until now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>三十多年前，互联网的出现和普及开启了商业技术创新的最大飞跃。尽管自互联网革命以来，许多下一个大事件的创新相继出现，改变了企业与消费者的互动方式以及销售产品和服务的方式，但没有任何创新能够接近其长期可寻址的潜力……直到现在。</p>
</div><p>The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) represents the next great tech advancement that has the ability to alter the long-term growth trajectory for corporate America. Empowering software and systems with AI solutions to make decisions without human intervention gives this technology a jaw-dropping addressable market, which the analysts at PwC have pegged at $15.7 trillion (globally) by 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能（AI）的崛起代表了下一个伟大的技术进步，能够改变美国企业的长期增长轨迹。通过赋予软件和系统 AI 解决方案，使其能够在没有人类干预的情况下做出决策，这项技术拥有令人瞩目的可寻址市场，普华永道的分析师预计到 2030 年这一市场将达到 15.7 万亿美元（全球）。</p>
</div><p>Although a long list of companies has benefited from Wall Street's hottest trend, it's semiconductor titan <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 0.86%) that's become the face of the AI revolution. As is often the case with businesses on the leading edge of a game-changing innovation, predictions are all over the map.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管许多公司从华尔街的热门趋势中受益，但半导体巨头 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 0.86%）已成为 AI 革命的代名词。正如在改变游戏规则的创新前沿的企业常常出现的情况一样，预测各不相同。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA5OTYvc2lsdmVyLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtdm9sdW1lLWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F820996%2Fsilver-dice-buy-sell-stock-chart-volume-billionaire-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Whereas one Wall Street analyst foresees the most pivotal of all tech stocks soaring to $220 per share, another believes it'll plummet to just $100 per share. Yet what's most interesting is that Wall Street's high- and low-water price targets both completely overlook what can arguably be described as the biggest catalyst for Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一位华尔街分析师预测，所有科技股中最关键的股票将飙升至每股 220 美元，而另一位则认为它将暴跌至每股仅 100 美元。然而，最有趣的是，华尔街的高低价目标完全忽视了可以说是 Nvidia 最大催化剂的因素。</p>
</div><h2>Is Nvidia a $5 trillion dollar business?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 是一个 5 万亿美元的企业吗？</h2>
</div><p>Make no mistake about it, the overwhelming majority of Wall Street analysts and investors believe Nvidia stock is headed higher. But none of these price projections speaks louder than analyst Ivan Feinseth at Tigress Financial, who foresees Nvidia shares adding 55% and heading to $220. If Feinseth is accurate, Nvidia's market cap would near $5.4 trillion. For context, Nvidia had a market valuation of $360 billion when 2023 began.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫无疑问，绝大多数华尔街分析师和投资者认为 Nvidia 股票将会上涨。但没有任何价格预测比 Tigress Financial 的分析师 Ivan Feinseth 的预测更具说服力，他预计 Nvidia 的股票将上涨 55%，达到 220 美元。如果 Feinseth 的预测准确，Nvidia 的市值将接近 5.4 万亿美元。作为参考，2023 年初 Nvidia 的市值为 3600 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Feinseth's Street-high price target is predicated on sustained strong demand for Nvidia's graphics processing units (GPUs). The Hopper (H100) and successor Blackwell GPUs account for the lion's share of the GPUs currently deployed in AI-accelerated data centers, and demand for this hardware hasn't shown any signs of slowing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Feinseth 的华尔街最高价格目标是基于对 Nvidia 图形处理单元（GPU）持续强劲需求的预期。Hopper（H100）及其后续产品 Blackwell GPU 占据了目前在 AI 加速数据中心中部署的 GPU 的绝大部分，而对这一硬件的需求没有显示出减缓的迹象。</p>
</div><p>As a general rule, when the demand for a good or service outstrips its supply, the price of said good or service is going to climb until demand tapers off. In Nvidia's case, its GPU orders are backlogged, which has allowed the company to charge a healthy premium for its hardware, relative to its direct external competitors. The end result has been a significant uptick in the company's gross margin, compared to prior to the AI revolution taking shape.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一般来说，当某种商品或服务的需求超过其供应时，该商品或服务的价格将会上涨，直到需求减弱。在 Nvidia 的情况下，其 GPU 订单积压，这使得公司能够相对于直接竞争对手收取健康的溢价。最终结果是，与 AI 革命形成之前相比，公司毛利率显著上升。</p>
</div><p>Feinseth's $220 price target, which was issued in late January, came after a short-lived plunge in Nvidia stock caused by the debut of China-based DeepSeek's R1 large language model (LLM) chatbot. DeepSeek is alleged to have used slower and less-costly hardware from Nvidia to develop its LLM. Feinseth's lofty price target demonstrates confidence that Nvidia will be able to maintain its superior pricing power.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Feinseth 在 1 月底发布的 220 美元价格目标是在 Nvidia 股票因中国 DeepSeek 推出 R1 大型语言模型（LLM）聊天机器人而短暂下跌后提出的。DeepSeek 被指控使用 Nvidia 的较慢且成本较低的硬件来开发其 LLM。Feinseth 的高价目标显示出对 Nvidia 能够保持其优越定价能力的信心。</p>
</div><h2>Will Nvidia shares plunge 30%?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 的股票会暴跌 30% 吗？</h2>
</div><p>On the other end of the spectrum is Seaport Global Investors analyst Jay Goldberg. In late April, Goldberg became the only analyst covering Nvidia to rate its stock as a &#34;sell,&#34; and initiated a $100 price target. Based on where Nvidia shares ended the session on June 6, Goldberg's price target intimates a decline of almost 30%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，Seaport Global Investors 的分析师 Jay Goldberg 在 4 月底成为唯一一位将 Nvidia 股票评级为 “卖出” 的分析师，并设定了 100 美元的价格目标。根据 Nvidia 股票在 6 月 6 日结束时的价格，Goldberg 的价格目标暗示着近 30% 的下跌。</p>
</div><p>Goldberg doesn't foresee Wall Street's AI darling losing its leading position as the preferred company powering AI-accelerated data centers. But he does believe that AI optimism is fully priced into Nvidia stock given a few variables.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Goldberg 并不认为华尔街的 AI 宠儿会失去作为 AI 加速数据中心首选公司的领先地位。但他确实认为，AI 的乐观情绪已经完全反映在 Nvidia 的股票中，考虑到一些变量。</p>
</div><p>To begin with, Goldberg notes that many of Nvidia's top customers by net sales are internally developing AI-GPUs and solutions of their own. Even though these chips won't represent external competition for Hopper, Blackwell, or any successor GPUs, they're going to be notably cheaper and more readily accessible than Nvidia's premium-priced and backlogged hardware. This is potentially problematic to Nvidia landing new orders from its current top customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，Goldberg 指出，Nvidia 的一些主要客户正在内部开发自己的 AI-GPU 和解决方案。尽管这些芯片不会对 Hopper、Blackwell 或任何后续 GPU 构成外部竞争，但它们将显著便宜且更易于获取，这可能会对 Nvidia 从当前主要客户那里获得新订单造成问题。</p>
</div><p>Goldberg also believes that enterprise customers will branch out and purchase from other hardware providers. For instance, <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>' less-costly Instinct MI300X series GPUs, as well as <strong>Broadcom</strong>'s custom AI-accelerating chips, could siphon away some of Nvidia's monopoly like data center market share over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Goldberg 还认为，企业客户将会扩展并从其他硬件供应商处采购。例如，<strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 的成本较低的 Instinct MI300X 系列 GPU，以及 <strong>Broadcom</strong> 的定制 AI 加速芯片，可能会随着时间的推移逐渐蚕食 Nvidia 在数据中心市场的垄断地位。</p>
</div><p>With enterprise spending on AI-data center infrastructure expected to slow in 2026, per Goldberg, Nvidia stock is currently pricey.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Goldberg 的说法，预计到 2026 年，企业在 AI 数据中心基础设施上的支出将放缓，因此 Nvidia 的股票目前价格较高。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA5OTYvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtaW52ZXN0LWJyb2tlci10YWJsZXQtY3J5cHRvLXBsdW5nZS1idWJibGUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F820996%2Fstock-chart-crash-invest-broker-tablet-crypto-plunge-bubble-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Wall Street's high- and low-water price targets are completely missing this key catalyst</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>华尔街的高低价目标完全忽视了这一关键催化剂</h2>
</div><p>While Feinseth and Goldberg both make compelling cases, their arguments -- along with the dozens of other analysts and institutions that have placed a price target on shares of Nvidia stock -- completely overlook a historical catalyst associated with next-big-thing trends and innovations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 Feinseth 和 Goldberg 都提出了令人信服的论点，但他们的论点——以及其他数十位分析师和机构对 Nvidia 股票设定的价格目标——完全忽视了与下一个大事件趋势和创新相关的历史催化剂。</p>
</div><p>Though the internet proved to be a game-changing technology, it wasn't a universal winner from the get-go. It took years for businesses to figure out how to optimize their marketing and sales to consumers and other businesses. In other words, it took time for the internet to mature as a mainstream innovation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管互联网被证明是一项改变游戏规则的技术，但它并不是一开始就普遍获胜。企业花了几年时间才弄清楚如何优化他们对消费者和其他企业的营销和销售。换句话说，互联网成熟为主流创新需要时间。</p>
</div><p>Since the advent of the internet, we've witnessed a number of other high-profile trends, technologies, and innovations come along that have also endured an early stage bubble-bursting event. This includes (but isn't limited to) genome decoding, business-to-business commerce, nanotechnology, 3D printing, cannabis, blockchain technology, and the metaverse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自互联网出现以来，我们见证了一系列其他高调的趋势、技术和创新，它们也经历了早期阶段的泡沫破裂事件。这包括（但不限于）基因解码、企业对企业的商业、纳米技术、3D 打印、大麻、区块链技术和元宇宙。</p>
</div><p>For more than 30 years, investors have consistently overestimated the timeline to mainstream adoption and/or utility for game-changing innovations. In short, investors aren't giving these hyped trends the proper time or channels to mature.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去的 30 多年里，投资者始终高估了颠覆性创新的主流采用和/或实用性的时间表。简而言之，投资者没有给予这些被炒作的趋势足够的时间或渠道来成熟。</p>
</div><p>Although Nvidia's sales have skyrocketed from $27 billion to more than $130 billion between fiscal 2023 and fiscal 2025 (its fiscal year ends in late January), most businesses are nowhere close to optimizing their AI solutions as of yet, or even generating a positive return on their AI infrastructure investments. This points to the growing likelihood of an AI bubble forming and, at some point, bursting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管英伟达的销售额在 2023 财年到 2025 财年之间从 270 亿美元飙升至超过 1300 亿美元（其财年在 1 月底结束），但大多数企业目前仍远未优化其人工智能解决方案，甚至没有从其人工智能基础设施投资中获得正回报。这表明人工智能泡沫形成并在某个时刻破裂的可能性正在增加。</p>
</div><p>To be objective, this doesn't mean Nvidia won't be a long-term winner. The proliferation of the internet eventually sent the stock market soaring. While Feinseth's price target may not be achievable in the near-term, it's certainly within the realm of possibilities as businesses learn how to properly utilize AI solutions and generate a profit from their aggressive AI investments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>客观地说，这并不意味着英伟达不会成为长期赢家。互联网的普及最终推动了股市的飙升。虽然 Feinseth 的目标价格在短期内可能无法实现，但随着企业学习如何正确利用人工智能解决方案并从其激进的人工智能投资中获利，这无疑在可能性范围之内。</p>
</div><p>But this historical correlation between next-big-thing trends and bubble-bursting events also suggests Goldberg is likelier to be right in the coming quarters -- albeit not for the reasons put forth in his research note in late April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这种下一件大事趋势与泡沫破裂事件之间的历史关联也表明，Goldberg 在未来几个季度更有可能是正确的——尽管并不是基于他在四月末研究报告中提出的理由。</p>
</div>

Nvidia Stock Can Vault to $220 or Plunge to $100, Based on Select Wall Street Analysts -- but Both Price Targets Completely Overlook a Key Catalyst

- 人工智能的崛起被视为改变美国企业长期增长轨迹的技术进步。  
- 分析师预测，Nvidia 股价可能在$100 到$220 之间波动，市场估值接近$5.4 万亿。  
- 投资者需警惕 AI 泡沫形成的可能性，企业尚未优化 AI 解决方案。  

根据部分华尔街分析师的预测，英伟达的股票可能会涨到 220 美元或跌到 100 美元——然而，这两个价格目标都完全忽视了一个关键的催化因素