<p>来自 Johann M Cherian 对欧洲和全球市场的前瞻</p><p>欧洲投资者将面临一种不安的情绪，因为中东地区迅速上升的紧张局势以及美国总统唐纳德·特朗普又一次的关税攻击引发了新一轮的抛售美元和规避风险的举动。</p><p>备受关注的美中谈判以脆弱的停火告终，暂时缓解了世界两大经济体之间的贸易紧张局势，但缺乏细节让投资者感到不安。</p><p>首先，中国国家主席习近平尚未对 “协议” 表示批准。而新关税的实施细节尚未敲定，美国对高端人工智能芯片的出口限制仍然存在。</p><p>随着 7 月 8 日全球关税截止日期的临近，特朗普再次回归单边政策风格，他表示将在一到两周内向其他几十个国家发送信函，概述贸易条款，供他们选择接受或拒绝。</p><p>市场希望能再现 TACO 时刻。</p><p>尽管滞后性的通胀报告尚未反映出价格压力，但公司开始发出警报。Zara 母公司 Inditex (ITX.MC) 是最新一家发布令人失望的季度报告并指出贸易不确定性带来的逆风的公司。</p><p>而且，似乎投资者已经面临了足够的挑战，中东地区的地缘政治紧张局势加剧，增加了原油价格上涨引发通胀压力的风险。</p><p>来自这个石油富裕地区的供应担忧将布伦特原油 (LCOc1) 和西德克萨斯中质原油 (CLc1) 期货推升至近 70 美元/桶的两个月高点。</p><p>在这一切中，正如我的同事 Jamie McGeever 所指出的，股票和股市的估值开始显得过高，增加了市场抛售时对投资者的风险。</p><p>欧洲期货 (STXEc1) 下跌 0.7%，而美国期货 (EScv1) 则指向周四低开，但该地区的基准指数距离各自的历史高点仅约 2%。</p><p>此外，投资者继续质疑美元的避险地位。周四，欧元 (EUR=EBS) 触及七周高点，今年上涨 11%，有望实现自 2017 年以来最大的年度涨幅。</p><p>下周的央行盛会或许能为全球经济前景提供更多线索。美国联邦储备委员会、日本银行和英格兰银行将宣布其政策决定。</p><p>与此同时，投资者将关注一系列英国经济数据，包括当天晚些时候的国内生产总值和制造业产出报告。预计这两者都将反映出月度活动的下降，受到英格兰银行对货币政策宽松的谨慎态度的制约。</p><p>可能为周四市场提供更多方向的关键发展：</p><ul><li>英国：国内生产总值、工业产出、制造业产出和贸易数据</li><li>美国：生产者通胀数据、初请失业金人数报告以及价值 220 亿美元的 30 年期国债拍卖</li></ul><p>预计发言的政策制定者包括欧洲央行的 Jose Luis Escriva 和澳大利亚储备银行的 David Jacobs</p><ul><li>UniCredit (CRDI.MI) 首席执行官对 BPM (BAMI.MI) 交易的希望渺茫，称德意志银行 (Commerzbank) 成本过高</li><li>Oracle (ORCL.N) 因强劲的云服务需求上调年度预测</li><li>华纳兄弟 (WBD.O) 的信用评级被 Fitch 下调至垃圾级，原因是拆分问题</li></ul><p>股票估值：美国、欧洲和亚太地区</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/24f0dcd8b121de913b358572d6ad68d2?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="948" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/24f0dcd8b121de913b358572d6ad68d2"/></figure><p>美元对其他货币的走势</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/bd06a921237bd33f58780ee2efd386d3?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="1398" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/bd06a921237bd33f58780ee2efd386d3"/></figure><p>（作者：Johann M Cherian；编辑：Muralikumar Anantharaman）</p>

<p>欧洲市场面临挑战的一天，因中东紧张局势升级以及美国新关税引发抛售美元。最近的美中贸易休战仍然脆弱，未得到中国国家主席习近平的批准，关税细节也不明确。像 Inditex 这样的公司在贸易不确定性中报告了令人失望的业绩。由于供应担忧，油价飙升，而欧洲和美国的期货则显示出低开趋势。预计下周将发布来自英国和美国的关键经济数据，以及中央银行的政策公告</p>

<p>A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Johann M Cherian</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来自 Johann M Cherian 对欧洲和全球市场的前瞻</p>
</div><p>European investors are set to wake up to a souring mood as rapidly rising tensions in the Middle East and yet another tariff salvo from U.S. President Donald Trump triggered a new wave of dollar-selling and risk-off moves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲投资者将面临一种不安的情绪，因为中东地区迅速上升的紧张局势以及美国总统唐纳德·特朗普又一次的关税攻击引发了新一轮的抛售美元和规避风险的举动。</p>
</div><p>The much-hyped U.S.-China talks culminated in a fragile truce that may have put a lid on simmering trade tensions between the world’s top two economies for now but the lack of details has left investors unnerved.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>备受关注的美中谈判以脆弱的停火告终，暂时缓解了世界两大经济体之间的贸易紧张局势，但缺乏细节让投资者感到不安。</p>
</div><p>For starters, China President Xi Jinping is yet to give his approval on the ‘deal’. And details on how the new tariffs will be implemented are yet to be ironed out and U.S. export restrictions on high-end artificial intelligence chips are still in place.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，中国国家主席习近平尚未对 “协议” 表示批准。而新关税的实施细节尚未敲定，美国对高端人工智能芯片的出口限制仍然存在。</p>
</div><p>And with the July 8 deadline on worldwide tariffs fast approaching, Trump is back to his unilateral style of policymaking as he said he would send out letters in one to two weeks outlining terms of trade to dozens of other countries, which they could embrace or reject.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着 7 月 8 日全球关税截止日期的临近，特朗普再次回归单边政策风格，他表示将在一到两周内向其他几十个国家发送信函，概述贸易条款，供他们选择接受或拒绝。</p>
</div><p>Markets will be hoping for another TACO moment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场希望能再现 TACO 时刻。</p>
</div><p>While backward looking inflation reports are yet to reflect the price pressures, companies are starting to sound the alarm. Zara-owner Inditex (ITX.MC) was the latest to issue a disappointing quarterly report and flag headwinds from trade uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管滞后性的通胀报告尚未反映出价格压力，但公司开始发出警报。Zara 母公司 Inditex (ITX.MC) 是最新一家发布令人失望的季度报告并指出贸易不确定性带来的逆风的公司。</p>
</div><p>And as if investors did not have enough to juggle with already, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are flaring, adding to the risks of rising crude prices fuelling inflation pressures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且，似乎投资者已经面临了足够的挑战，中东地区的地缘政治紧张局势加剧，增加了原油价格上涨引发通胀压力的风险。</p>
</div><p>Supply concerns out of the oil-rich region pushed Brent (LCOc1) and West Texas Intermediate (CLc1) futures to two-month highs of nearly $70 a barrel each.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来自这个石油富裕地区的供应担忧将布伦特原油 (LCOc1) 和西德克萨斯中质原油 (CLc1) 期货推升至近 70 美元/桶的两个月高点。</p>
</div><p>In all of this, as my colleague Jamie McGeever points out, valuations in equities and stocks are beginning to appear stretched, compounding the risks to investors in the event of a market selloff.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这一切中，正如我的同事 Jamie McGeever 所指出的，股票和股市的估值开始显得过高，增加了市场抛售时对投资者的风险。</p>
</div><p>European futures (STXEc1) were down 0.7%, while futures in the U.S. (EScv1) are pointing to a lower open on Thursday, but the benchmark indexes in the regions are just about 2% away from their respective record highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲期货 (STXEc1) 下跌 0.7%，而美国期货 (EScv1) 则指向周四低开，但该地区的基准指数距离各自的历史高点仅约 2%。</p>
</div><p>Further, investors continue to question the dollar’s safe-haven status. On Thursday, the euro (EUR=EBS) hit a seven-week high and is up 11% this year, poised for its biggest yearly advance since 2017.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，投资者继续质疑美元的避险地位。周四，欧元 (EUR=EBS) 触及七周高点，今年上涨 11%，有望实现自 2017 年以来最大的年度涨幅。</p>
</div><p>The central bank bonanza next week could perhaps throw more light on the global economy’s outlook. The U.S. Federal Reserve along with the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England are due to announce their policy decisions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下周的央行盛会或许能为全球经济前景提供更多线索。美国联邦储备委员会、日本银行和英格兰银行将宣布其政策决定。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, investors will look for a string of UK economic data including reports on gross domestic product and manufacturing output later in the day. Both are expected to reflect a decline in activity on a monthly basis, reigned in by the BoE’s cautious approach to monetary policy easing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，投资者将关注一系列英国经济数据，包括当天晚些时候的国内生产总值和制造业产出报告。预计这两者都将反映出月度活动的下降，受到英格兰银行对货币政策宽松的谨慎态度的制约。</p>
</div><p>Key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可能为周四市场提供更多方向的关键发展：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>In the UK: GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output and trade data</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>英国：国内生产总值、工业产出、制造业产出和贸易数据</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>In the U.S.: Producer inflation data, initial weekly jobless claims report and an auction of 30-year bonds worth $22 billion</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美国：生产者通胀数据、初请失业金人数报告以及价值 220 亿美元的 30 年期国债拍卖</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Policymakers expected to speak include ECB’s Jose Luis Escriva, Reserve Bank of Australia’s David Jacobs</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计发言的政策制定者包括欧洲央行的 Jose Luis Escriva 和澳大利亚储备银行的 David Jacobs</p>
</div><ul>
<li>UniCredit (CRDI.MI) CEO sees slim hopes of BPM (BAMI.MI) deal, says Commerzbank (CBKG.DE) too costly</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>UniCredit (CRDI.MI) 首席执行官对 BPM (BAMI.MI) 交易的希望渺茫，称德意志银行 (Commerzbank) 成本过高</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Oracle (ORCL.N) raises annual forecast on robust cloud services demand</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>Oracle (ORCL.N) 因强劲的云服务需求上调年度预测</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Warner Bros’ (WBD.O) credit rating downgraded to junk by Fitch on split-up</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>华纳兄弟 (WBD.O) 的信用评级被 Fitch 下调至垃圾级，原因是拆分问题</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Equity Valuations: U.S., Europe and Asia Pacific</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票估值：美国、欧洲和亚太地区</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/3FQigdc" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/3FQigdc"/></p>
<p>Currency moves against the US dollar</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元对其他货币的走势</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/44da3cj" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/44da3cj"/></p>
<p>(By Johann M Cherian; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（作者：Johann M Cherian；编辑：Muralikumar Anantharaman）</p>
</div>

No relief from US-China trade truce

- 欧洲投资者面临中东紧张局势和美国新关税的影响。  
- 中国与美国的贸易谈判虽达成脆弱停火，但缺乏细节令投资者不安。  
- 投资者关注即将发布的经济数据和央行政策决定。  

美中贸易休战未能带来任何缓解