<p>本月早些时候，市场见证了历史的诞生，唐纳德·特朗普总统与 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 0.07%) 首席执行官埃隆·马斯克在社交媒体上就公共政策发生了争执，整个世界都在关注。因此，特斯拉的股票在一天内损失了约 1500 亿美元的市值（创下公司新纪录）。该股票已经恢复了 15% 下跌的一部分，但自 5 月底以来仍然下跌了约 6%。看起来投资者对特斯拉的未来越来越悲观。其财务状况和领先趋势目前看起来不容乐观。</p>
<p>如果你是一位对拥有电动车（EV）股票感兴趣的投资者，特斯拉最近的下跌是否意味着是时候转向购买竞争对手如 <strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>(RIVN -1.49%) 的股票呢？让我们仔细看看这家较小的电动车新兴企业，看看是否能找到答案。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjExODIvZWxlY3RyaWMtdmVoaWNsZS1jaGFyZ2luZy5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjExODIvZWxlY3RyaWMtdmVoaWNsZS1jaGFyZ2luZy5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>特斯拉的市场份额损失</h2>
<p>自 2022 年达到峰值以来，特斯拉在美国的电动车销售市场份额开始下降。根据 Car Edge 的数据，特斯拉在美国电动车销售中的市场份额从 2022 年初的 75% 下降到 2025 年第一季度的不到 45%。这种市场份额的挣扎在欧洲和中国等其他大型电动车市场也有所体现，尽管 Rivian 并未在这些国家销售。</p>
<p>市场份额的损失恰逢 Rivian 终于将其电动车产品推向市场。这些产品包括一款高端卡车、一款 SUV 和一款商业电动面包车（主要销售给 <strong>亚马逊</strong>）。然而，如果我们查看美国的市场份额估计，Rivian 在 2025 年第一季度的电动车总销售中仅占 2.9%。这实际上是从 2023 年第三季度的 5% 的峰值下降的。特斯拉的市场份额损失并没有转向 Rivian，而是转向了提升电动车业务的传统汽车制造商，如 <strong>通用汽车</strong>。</p>
<p>为什么 Rivian 仍然如此小？首先，整个电动车市场在美国停滞不前。此外，Rivian 销售的车辆价格昂贵，包含全面升级时的价格约为 10 万美元。这些车辆的评价很好，但对于美国人口中的一小部分人来说才是负担得起的。</p>
<h2>Rivian 即将发布的产品</h2>
<p>为了增加电动车销售的市场份额，Rivian 正在快速投资以打造更实惠的电动车。它正在研发一款名为 R2 的产品，这是一款 SUV，售价约为 45,000 美元（不包括升级），计划在 2026 年开始向客户交付。投资者目前正押注于这一产品线。</p>
<p>R2 是 Rivian 在美国市场上获得更大市场份额的重大赌注。该公司的客户交付已经停滞并开始下降，预计 2025 年仅交付 40,000 至 46,000 辆汽车，而 2024 年为 51,000 辆。当 R2 推出时，投资者应该期待 Rivian 的整体交付量达到每年数十万辆，以达到足够的规模以产生正现金流。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b09c9eda1fe9b91c924a6282e7f0ccdd.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b09c9eda1fe9b91c924a6282e7f0ccdd.png"/></p>
<p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
<h2>你应该购买 Rivian 股票吗？</h2>
<p>Rivian 在明年 R2 发布时应该会获得增长动力。特斯拉的品牌形象受损，市场份额持续下降，这将使许多电动车需求留给其他品牌，尤其是售价在 35,000 到 50,000 美元范围内的汽车。电动车在美国的新车销售中仍占不到 20%（不包括混合动力车），我仍然相信未来大多数新车销售将最终是电动车。这可能是一个上升的潮流，将帮助 R2 的交付在未来几年飙升。</p>
<p>投资者最好希望 R2 能够成功，因为 Rivian 需要帮助来改善其业务基本面。该公司每年烧掉约 20 亿美元的自由现金流，且历史上毛利率为负。尽管其毛利率在上个季度改善至正 17%，但这仅是该指标第二次为正。其中一些提升得益于该公司与 <strong>大众汽车</strong> 的合作，这对 Rivian 试图将财务状况调整到正轨是个好兆头。</p>
<p>随着 Rivian 致力于扩大 R2 车型的生产，现金消耗可能会继续。然而，它的资产负债表上有充足的现金，并且还有更多资金即将到来。上个季度末的流动性为 85 亿美元，其中 35 亿美元来自与大众汽车的合作，可能还有 66 亿美元来自能源部的贷款。这使得公司在耗尽资金之前还有很多年的时间。</p>
<p>但 Rivian 股票值得购买吗？我不太确定。这是一项高风险的投资，如果 R2 取得重大成功，股票可能表现良好。然而，即使在 166 亿美元的市值和低股价下，Rivian 股票仍然是一项高风险投资，因为如果公司无法执行并实现正的自由现金流，可能面临重大下行风险。考虑到这一点，聪明的投资者应该避免今天购买该股票。</p>

RIVN

特斯拉

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方两倍做多特斯拉

南方两倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>特斯拉的市值在首席执行官埃隆·马斯克与总统特朗普之间的公开争执后暴跌了 1500 亿美元，导致股价下跌 15%。尽管略有回升，特斯拉在美国电动车销售中的市场份额已从 2022 年初的 75% 降至不足 45%。Rivian 的市场份额仅为 2.9%，正在研发一款更实惠的 SUV——R2，预计将在 2026 年推出。投资者对 Rivian 的增长抱有希望，但该公司面临现金消耗和负利润的挑战，尽管拥有相当的流动性</p>

<p>The markets saw history made earlier this month after President Donald Trump and <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 0.07%) CEO Elon Musk had a disagreement over public policy via social media in front of the whole world. As a result, Tesla's stock lost about $150 billion in market capitalization in a single day (a new company record). The stock has recovered a bit of that 15% drop, but it is still down about 6% just since the end of May. It would seem that investors are getting increasingly pessimistic about Tesla's future. Its financials and leading trends look ugly right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本月早些时候，市场见证了历史的诞生，唐纳德·特朗普总统与 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 0.07%) 首席执行官埃隆·马斯克在社交媒体上就公共政策发生了争执，整个世界都在关注。因此，特斯拉的股票在一天内损失了约 1500 亿美元的市值（创下公司新纪录）。该股票已经恢复了 15% 下跌的一部分，但自 5 月底以来仍然下跌了约 6%。看起来投资者对特斯拉的未来越来越悲观。其财务状况和领先趋势目前看起来不容乐观。</p>
</div><p>If you are an investor interested in owning electric vehicle (EV) stocks, does the recent fall by Tesla mean it's time to move to buy competitors such as <strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>(RIVN -1.49%) instead for your portfolio? Let's take a closer look at this smaller EV upstart and see if an answer presents itself.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你是一位对拥有电动车（EV）股票感兴趣的投资者，特斯拉最近的下跌是否意味着是时候转向购买竞争对手如 <strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>(RIVN -1.49%) 的股票呢？让我们仔细看看这家较小的电动车新兴企业，看看是否能找到答案。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjExODIvZWxlY3RyaWMtdmVoaWNsZS1jaGFyZ2luZy5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F821182%2Felectric-vehicle-charging.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla's market share losses</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉的市场份额损失</h2>
</div><p>Since its peak in 2022, Tesla has begun to lose market share of EV sales in the United States. According to Car Edge, Tesla's estimated market share of U.S. EV sales fell from 75% in early 2022 to under 45% in the first quarter of 2025. These market share struggles are being seen in other large EV regions like Europe and China as well, although Rivian does not sell in those countries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2022 年达到峰值以来，特斯拉在美国的电动车销售市场份额开始下降。根据 Car Edge 的数据，特斯拉在美国电动车销售中的市场份额从 2022 年初的 75% 下降到 2025 年第一季度的不到 45%。这种市场份额的挣扎在欧洲和中国等其他大型电动车市场也有所体现，尽管 Rivian 并未在这些国家销售。</p>
</div><p>The market share losses come at a time when Rivian has finally brought its EV products to market. These include a premium truck, SUV, and a commercial electric van (mainly sold to <strong>Amazon</strong>). However, if we look at market share estimates in the United States, Rivian is only at 2.9% of total EV sales in Q1 2025. This is actually <em>down</em> from a peak of 5% in Q3 2023. Tesla's market share losses have not gone to Rivian. Rather, they are going to legacy players upping their EV game, such as <strong>General Motors</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场份额的损失恰逢 Rivian 终于将其电动车产品推向市场。这些产品包括一款高端卡车、一款 SUV 和一款商业电动面包车（主要销售给 <strong>亚马逊</strong>）。然而，如果我们查看美国的市场份额估计，Rivian 在 2025 年第一季度的电动车总销售中仅占 2.9%。这实际上是从 2023 年第三季度的 5% 的峰值下降的。特斯拉的市场份额损失并没有转向 Rivian，而是转向了提升电动车业务的传统汽车制造商，如 <strong>通用汽车</strong>。</p>
</div><p>Why is Rivian still so small? For one, the entire EV market has stalled in the United States. Plus, Rivian sells expensive vehicles with price points around $100,000 when including full upgrades. The vehicles have great reviews, but they are only affordable for a small segment of the United States population.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为什么 Rivian 仍然如此小？首先，整个电动车市场在美国停滞不前。此外，Rivian 销售的车辆价格昂贵，包含全面升级时的价格约为 10 万美元。这些车辆的评价很好，但对于美国人口中的一小部分人来说才是负担得起的。</p>
</div><h2>Rivian's upcoming product release</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Rivian 即将发布的产品</h2>
</div><p>In order to grow its market share of EV sales, Rivian is investing quickly to build a more affordable EV for shoppers. It is working on a product called the R2, which is an SUV that will cost around $45,000 before upgrades, with plans to start deliveries to customers in 2026. This product pipeline is what investors are betting on when buying Rivian stock right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了增加电动车销售的市场份额，Rivian 正在快速投资以打造更实惠的电动车。它正在研发一款名为 R2 的产品，这是一款 SUV，售价约为 45,000 美元（不包括升级），计划在 2026 年开始向客户交付。投资者目前正押注于这一产品线。</p>
</div><p>The R2 is Rivian's big bet to help it gain market share with a wider set of customers in the United States. The company's deliveries to customers have stalled out and begun to fall, with guidance to deliver just 40,000 to 46,000 vehicles in 2025 compared to 51,000 in 2024. When the R2 comes out, investors should expect Rivian to grow its overall deliveries to hundreds of thousands a year in order to reach a large enough scale to generate positive cash flow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>R2 是 Rivian 在美国市场上获得更大市场份额的重大赌注。该公司的客户交付已经停滞并开始下降，预计 2025 年仅交付 40,000 至 46,000 辆汽车，而 2024 年为 51,000 辆。当 R2 推出时，投资者应该期待 Rivian 的整体交付量达到每年数十万辆，以达到足够的规模以产生正现金流。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b09c9eda1fe9b91c924a6282e7f0ccdd.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b09c9eda1fe9b91c924a6282e7f0ccdd.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy Rivian stock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你应该购买 Rivian 股票吗？</h2>
</div><p>Rivian should get a growth boost when the R2 releases next year. Tesla's brand looks damaged and keeps losing market share, which will leave a lot of EV demand up for grabs for other brands selling cars in the $35,000 to $50,000 range. EVs still account for less than 20% of new car sales in the United States (when excluding hybrids), and I still believe the majority of new car sales will eventually be EVs in the future. This can be a rising tide that will help R2 deliveries soar in the years to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Rivian 在明年 R2 发布时应该会获得增长动力。特斯拉的品牌形象受损，市场份额持续下降，这将使许多电动车需求留给其他品牌，尤其是售价在 35,000 到 50,000 美元范围内的汽车。电动车在美国的新车销售中仍占不到 20%（不包括混合动力车），我仍然相信未来大多数新车销售将最终是电动车。这可能是一个上升的潮流，将帮助 R2 的交付在未来几年飙升。</p>
</div><p>Investors better hope the R2 is successful, because Rivian needs help to improve its business fundamentals. The company is burning around $2 billion in free cash flow a year, with a history of negative gross margins. Its gross margin did improve to positive 17% last quarter, but this was only the second quarter the margin figure was positive. Some of this boost was due to the company's partnership with <strong>Volkswagen</strong>, which is a good sign as Rivian tries to get its financials on the right track.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者最好希望 R2 能够成功，因为 Rivian 需要帮助来改善其业务基本面。该公司每年烧掉约 20 亿美元的自由现金流，且历史上毛利率为负。尽管其毛利率在上个季度改善至正 17%，但这仅是该指标第二次为正。其中一些提升得益于该公司与 <strong>大众汽车</strong> 的合作，这对 Rivian 试图将财务状况调整到正轨是个好兆头。</p>
</div><p>Cash burn will likely continue as Rivian aims to scale up the R2 vehicle. However, it does have plenty of cash on the balance sheet and more funding on the way. There was $8.5 billion in liquidity at the end of last quarter, up to $3.5 billion coming from its Volkswagen partnership, and potentially $6.6 billion coming from a Department of Energy loan. This gives the company plenty of years left before running out of money.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着 Rivian 致力于扩大 R2 车型的生产，现金消耗可能会继续。然而，它的资产负债表上有充足的现金，并且还有更多资金即将到来。上个季度末的流动性为 85 亿美元，其中 35 亿美元来自与大众汽车的合作，可能还有 66 亿美元来自能源部的贷款。这使得公司在耗尽资金之前还有很多年的时间。</p>
</div><p>But is Rivian stock a buy? I'm not so sure. It is a high-risk bet, and shares may do well if the R2 is a major success. However, even at a market cap of $16.6 billion and a low stock price, Rivian stock is a high-risk investment to make because of the major downside risk if the company cannot execute and achieve positive free cash flow. With this in mind, smart investors should avoid buying the stock today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但 Rivian 股票值得购买吗？我不太确定。这是一项高风险的投资，如果 R2 取得重大成功，股票可能表现良好。然而，即使在 166 亿美元的市值和低股价下，Rivian 股票仍然是一项高风险投资，因为如果公司无法执行并实现正的自由现金流，可能面临重大下行风险。考虑到这一点，聪明的投资者应该避免今天购买该股票。</p>
</div>

Tesla Stock Crash: Time to Rotate and Buy Rivian Instead?

- 特斯拉因特朗普与马斯克的争议，市值单日损失约 1500 亿美元。  
- 特斯拉在美国电动车市场份额从 2022 年的 75% 降至 2025 年第一季度的 45%。  
- Rivian 计划推出售价约 45000 美元的 R2 SUV，以扩大市场份额。  

特斯拉股票暴跌：是否应该轮换投资并购买 Rivian 汽车的股票？