<p>今年对投资者来说已经证明是一次过山车般的经历。在短短几周内，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 下跌近 19%，但随后几乎同样迅速地反弹，现在徘徊在 2 月份的峰值以下。</p>
<p>然而，这种过山车的经历与 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 2.00%）的股票相比显得微不足道。投资者看到该股在去年年底至 4 月期间下滑超过 50%，然后反弹了惊人的 62%，又再次下跌近 20%。</p>
<p>这次反弹主要是由于公司首席执行官埃隆·马斯克的回归，他的缺席被广泛认为是股票急剧下跌的主要原因。然而，现在他与唐纳德·特朗普总统的&#34;美丽大法案&#34;的分歧让投资者感到担忧。因此，在经历了如此多的起伏以及他独特的领导者回归之际，问问自己：特斯拉的股票在五年后会在哪里？</p>
<h2>特斯拉首先是一家汽车公司</h2>
<p>毫无疑问，马斯克对未来有着引人注目的愿景。机器人出租车和个人机器人轻易地吸引了人们的想象力。然而，投资者必须清楚地区分什么是现实，什么是可能。在其核心，特斯拉是一家汽车公司，特别是一家电动车（EV）制造商；大约 90% 的 2024 年收入来自其电动车业务。</p>
<p>从这个角度来看，特斯拉令人印象深刻。随着 <strong>Rivian</strong> 和 <strong>Lucid</strong> 等电动车竞争对手继续出现净亏损，特斯拉自 2020 年以来一直保持盈利。与传统汽车制造巨头相比，特斯拉的盈利能力更为突出：尽管特斯拉的销量约为 <strong>福特</strong> 或 <strong>通用汽车</strong> 的一半，但其利润却更高。下面的图表清楚地显示了这种明显的差异。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/03354a3f66da3fc69b805fe8dc48edc1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="575" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/03354a3f66da3fc69b805fe8dc48edc1.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA 收入（TTM）数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<h2>特斯拉的销售面临压力</h2>
<p>现在，尽管这令人印象深刻，但你可能会注意到特斯拉过去一年的净收入方向。在过去两个季度中，特斯拉的净收入同比下降了至少 70%。</p>
<p>这种下滑趋势在公司的销售中也有所反映，尽管由于规模原因在图表中很难看出。特斯拉的总收入在过去五个季度中的两个季度同比下降了大约 9%。在另外两个季度中，仅增长了略超过 2%，这个增长率可以说是微弱的。这不是你希望看到的来自一家如此高估值公司的增长。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA5NDMvdGVzbGEtMjAyNi5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="393" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA5NDMvdGVzbGEtMjAyNi5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>虽然这些趋势总是有多种因素驱动，但显然主要驱动因素是竞争加剧，以及最近品牌形象严重受损。作为早期的先驱，特斯拉的先发优势使其迅速占据了电动车市场的大部分份额。随着竞争对手在质量和成本上赶上甚至超越特斯拉，这一领先地位正在迅速消失。</p>
<p>事实上，市场现在充满了来自优质公司的先进电动车，这些电动车的价格往往更具竞争力。这在中国尤其如此，中国是特斯拉的一个关键市场，国内公司如 <strong>比亚迪</strong> 正在超越特斯拉。</p>
<h2>马斯克效应</h2>
<p>最近，埃隆·马斯克涉足政治无疑对特斯拉的品牌造成了损害。品牌研究公司的一项分析发现，马斯克最近在政治聚光灯下的争议性表现使特斯拉的品牌价值下降了 26%。</p>
<p>马斯克在政府效率部（DOGE）任职期间，他对德国极右翼政治的支持，以及他在网上的政治对抗，导致全球销售急剧下降。4 月份，特斯拉在欧盟的销售同比下降近 50%。同月，欧盟整体电动车销售增长了 34%。</p>
<p>一度似乎马斯克已经吸取了教训。当他宣布重返特斯拉并开始退出特朗普政府时，似乎他想修复自己的形象，远离&#34;搅局&#34;。</p>
<p>但这种情况并没有持续多久。上周，马斯克在 X 平台上批评特朗普的法案。总统对此并不满意，两人很快在各自的社交媒体平台上展开了一场极为公开的争吵，迅速变得个人化。事态升级到特朗普建议取消 SpaceX 与政府的合同。</p>
<p>显然，马斯克在这一届政府中享有的内部关系可能已经消失，或者至少受到严重损害。</p>
<h2>通往 2030 年的道路</h2>
<p>那么，特斯拉的股票在五年后会在哪里？借用体育界的一句话：这取决于哪个特斯拉出现——以及哪个埃隆·马斯克。如果是那个极具创新性、开创性并且引领潮流的公司，帮助将电动车市场发展到今天的样子，那么前景将会光明。在这种情况下，特斯拉将实现完全自动驾驶技术，推出成功的机器人出租车业务，并在其机器人技术上取得重大进展。</p>
<p>如果是过去几年停滞不前的特斯拉，那家过度承诺而未能兑现的特斯拉，那么接下来的五年对投资者来说可能会很艰难。虽然我认为，像大多数事情一样，真相在中间，但我更倾向于后者。考虑到特斯拉股票中已经包含的巨额未来增长——在收入停滞和盈利下降的情况下，市盈率超过 160 并不是常态——我不推荐这只股票。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方两倍做多特斯拉

南方两倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>特斯拉的股票经历了显著的波动，先是下跌超过 50%，随后反弹 62%，这在很大程度上受到首席执行官埃隆·马斯克回归的影响。尽管特斯拉是领先的电动汽车制造商，但其净收入在最近几个季度同比下降了 70%，销售受到日益激烈的竞争和受损的品牌形象的压力。马斯克的政治参与进一步影响了特斯拉的品牌价值，导致销售显著下降，尤其是在欧盟市场。特斯拉股票的未来仍然不确定，因为它面临来自竞争对手和品牌认知问题的挑战</p>

<p>This year has already proven to be quite a roller coaster for investors. After falling nearly 19% in the span of just a few weeks, the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> recovered almost as quickly as it fell, now hovering just below its peak in February.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年对投资者来说已经证明是一次过山车般的经历。在短短几周内，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 下跌近 19%，但随后几乎同样迅速地反弹，现在徘徊在 2 月份的峰值以下。</p>
</div><p>Still, that rollercoaster ride pales in comparison to that of <strong>Tesla</strong>'s (TSLA 2.00%) stock. Investors watched shares slide more than 50% from their high near the end of last year through April, before rebounding a whopping 62% and again falling nearly 20%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这种过山车的经历与 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 2.00%）的股票相比显得微不足道。投资者看到该股在去年年底至 4 月期间下滑超过 50%，然后反弹了惊人的 62%，又再次下跌近 20%。</p>
</div><p>This recovery has been primarily driven by the return of the company's CEO, Elon Musk, whose absence has been widely considered as a major driver of the stock's precipitous decline. Now, however, his disagreement with President Donald Trump's &#34;Big Beautiful Bill&#34; is worrying investors. So, with all of this up and down and its inimitable leader back at the helm, it's a good time to ask: Where will Tesla stock be in five years?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这次反弹主要是由于公司首席执行官埃隆·马斯克的回归，他的缺席被广泛认为是股票急剧下跌的主要原因。然而，现在他与唐纳德·特朗普总统的&#34;美丽大法案&#34;的分歧让投资者感到担忧。因此，在经历了如此多的起伏以及他独特的领导者回归之际，问问自己：特斯拉的股票在五年后会在哪里？</p>
</div><h2>Tesla is a car company first and foremost</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉首先是一家汽车公司</h2>
</div><p>There's no denying that Musk has a compelling vision of the future. Robotaxis and personal robots easily capture the imagination. However, it's critical for investors to delineate between what <em>is</em> and what <em>could be</em>. At its core, Tesla is a car company, specifically an electric vehicle (EV) maker; roughly 90% of the company's 2024 revenue came from its EV business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫无疑问，马斯克对未来有着引人注目的愿景。机器人出租车和个人机器人轻易地吸引了人们的想象力。然而，投资者必须清楚地区分什么是现实，什么是可能。在其核心，特斯拉是一家汽车公司，特别是一家电动车（EV）制造商；大约 90% 的 2024 年收入来自其电动车业务。</p>
</div><p>And from this perspective, Tesla is impressive. As EV competitors like <strong>Rivian</strong> and <strong>Lucid</strong> continue to deliver net losses, Tesla has operated in the black since 2020. And when compared to legacy carmaking giants, Tesla's profitability stands out: Despite having about half the sales of <strong>Ford</strong> or <strong>General Motors</strong>, Tesla makes more in profit. The stark difference is clear in the chart below.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从这个角度来看，特斯拉令人印象深刻。随着 <strong>Rivian</strong> 和 <strong>Lucid</strong> 等电动车竞争对手继续出现净亏损，特斯拉自 2020 年以来一直保持盈利。与传统汽车制造巨头相比，特斯拉的盈利能力更为突出：尽管特斯拉的销量约为 <strong>福特</strong> 或 <strong>通用汽车</strong> 的一半，但其利润却更高。下面的图表清楚地显示了这种明显的差异。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/03354a3f66da3fc69b805fe8dc48edc1.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/03354a3f66da3fc69b805fe8dc48edc1.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSLA 收入（TTM）数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla is seeing its sales pressured</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉的销售面临压力</h2>
</div><p>Now, as impressive as this is, you may notice the direction of Tesla's net income over the last year. In both of the last two quarters, Tesla's net income fell by at least 70% year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，尽管这令人印象深刻，但你可能会注意到特斯拉过去一年的净收入方向。在过去两个季度中，特斯拉的净收入同比下降了至少 70%。</p>
</div><p>This downward trend is reflected in the company's sales as well, although that's hard to make out in the chart because of the scale. Tesla's top-line revenue fell by roughly 9% year over year in two of the last five quarters. In two others, it grew by just over 2%, a rate you might call anemic. That is not the kind of growth you want to see from a company as highly valued as Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种下滑趋势在公司的销售中也有所反映，尽管由于规模原因在图表中很难看出。特斯拉的总收入在过去五个季度中的两个季度同比下降了大约 9%。在另外两个季度中，仅增长了略超过 2%，这个增长率可以说是微弱的。这不是你希望看到的来自一家如此高估值公司的增长。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA5NDMvdGVzbGEtMjAyNi5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F820943%2Ftesla-2026.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>While these kinds of trends always have multiple factors driving them, it seems clear that the primary drivers are increasing competition and, more recently, a severely damaged brand. As an early pioneer, Tesla's head start allowed it to quickly capture the bulk of the EV market. That lead is quickly eroding as competitors catch up to -- and in some cases surpass -- Tesla in quality and cost.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这些趋势总是有多种因素驱动，但显然主要驱动因素是竞争加剧，以及最近品牌形象严重受损。作为早期的先驱，特斯拉的先发优势使其迅速占据了电动车市场的大部分份额。随着竞争对手在质量和成本上赶上甚至超越特斯拉，这一领先地位正在迅速消失。</p>
</div><p>The fact is, the market is now filled with advanced EVs from quality companies that are often priced more competitively. This is especially true in China, a crucial market for Tesla, where domestic companies like <strong>BYD</strong> are outpacing Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，市场现在充满了来自优质公司的先进电动车，这些电动车的价格往往更具竞争力。这在中国尤其如此，中国是特斯拉的一个关键市场，国内公司如 <strong>比亚迪</strong> 正在超越特斯拉。</p>
</div><h2>The Musk effect</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>马斯克效应</h2>
</div><p>More recently, Elon Musk's foray into politics has arguably done damage to Tesla's brand. An analysis by Brand Research, which actually quantifies the value of a brand, found that Elon's recent and often controversial time in the political spotlight reduced Tesla's brand value by 26%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，埃隆·马斯克涉足政治无疑对特斯拉的品牌造成了损害。品牌研究公司的一项分析发现，马斯克最近在政治聚光灯下的争议性表现使特斯拉的品牌价值下降了 26%。</p>
</div><p>Musk's time at the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), his support of German far-right politics, and his general online political antagonism have led to a precipitous sales decline across the globe. April saw a nearly 50% drop in Tesla's E.U. sales year over year. The same month saw a 34% increase in overall EV sales in the E.U.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马斯克在政府效率部（DOGE）任职期间，他对德国极右翼政治的支持，以及他在网上的政治对抗，导致全球销售急剧下降。4 月份，特斯拉在欧盟的销售同比下降近 50%。同月，欧盟整体电动车销售增长了 34%。</p>
</div><p>It seemed for a moment that Musk had learned his lesson. As he announced his return to Tesla and began his exit from the Trump administration, it seemed he wanted to repair his image and step away from &#34;stirring the pot,&#34; so to speak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一度似乎马斯克已经吸取了教训。当他宣布重返特斯拉并开始退出特朗普政府时，似乎他想修复自己的形象，远离&#34;搅局&#34;。</p>
</div><p>That was short-lived. Last week, Musk took to X to criticize Trump's bill. The president was not pleased, and the two soon fell into an extremely public spat on their respective social media platforms that quickly turned personal. It escalated to the point that Trump suggested SpaceX's contracts with the government be canceled.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这种情况并没有持续多久。上周，马斯克在 X 平台上批评特朗普的法案。总统对此并不满意，两人很快在各自的社交媒体平台上展开了一场极为公开的争吵，迅速变得个人化。事态升级到特朗普建议取消 SpaceX 与政府的合同。</p>
</div><p>It's clear that the inside track Musk enjoyed with this administration could very well be gone, or at the very least, severely damaged.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>显然，马斯克在这一届政府中享有的内部关系可能已经消失，或者至少受到严重损害。</p>
</div><h2>The road to 2030</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>通往 2030 年的道路</h2>
</div><p>So, where will Tesla stock be in five years? To borrow a phrase from the sports world: That depends on which Tesla shows up -- and for that matter, which Elon Musk. If it is the incredibly innovative, groundbreaking, and pioneering company that helped build the EV market to what it is today, then things will look bright. In this case, Tesla will have achieved full self-driving technology, launched a successful robotaxi enterprise, and made major advancements in its robotics technology.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，特斯拉的股票在五年后会在哪里？借用体育界的一句话：这取决于哪个特斯拉出现——以及哪个埃隆·马斯克。如果是那个极具创新性、开创性并且引领潮流的公司，帮助将电动车市场发展到今天的样子，那么前景将会光明。在这种情况下，特斯拉将实现完全自动驾驶技术，推出成功的机器人出租车业务，并在其机器人技术上取得重大进展。</p>
</div><p>If it is the stagnant Tesla of the last few years, the Tesla that overpromises and underdelivers, the next five years could be rough for investors. While I think, like most things, the truth is somewhere in the middle, my money is on things leaning heavily toward the latter case. And given the enormous amount of future growth already baked into Tesla stock -- a price-to-earnings ratio of more than 160 while revenue stagnates and earnings fall is not the norm -- I would not recommend this stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果是过去几年停滞不前的特斯拉，那家过度承诺而未能兑现的特斯拉，那么接下来的五年对投资者来说可能会很艰难。虽然我认为，像大多数事情一样，真相在中间，但我更倾向于后者。考虑到特斯拉股票中已经包含的巨额未来增长——在收入停滞和盈利下降的情况下，市盈率超过 160 并不是常态——我不推荐这只股票。</p>
</div>

Where Will Tesla Stock Be in 5 Years?

- 特斯拉股价经历剧烈波动，CEO 马斯克的回归引发关注。  
- 竞争加剧和品牌受损导致特斯拉净收入和销售下滑。  
- 投资者需警惕未来五年特斯拉的增长潜力。  

五年后特斯拉的股票会处于什么位置？