<p>回顾过去十年及更久，我认为没有多少人会否认 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 的成功是多么令人印象深刻。这家由颇具争议的首席执行官埃隆·马斯克领导的创新企业，以其电动汽车（EV）颠覆了全球汽车行业。</p>
<p>尽管截至 6 月 10 日，电动车股票的交易价格比峰值低 32%，但在过去十年中仍然上涨了 1,810%。这种长期表现使其成为全球最大的科技公司之一，这也是为什么美国银行分析师迈克尔·哈特内特在 2023 年提出 “七大奇迹” 时将其纳入其中。然而，我认为是时候将这家电动车制造商从这个非正式的分组中移除，并用更有资格的 <strong>奈飞</strong>（NFLX -0.35%）替代。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjEzMTIvbGVmdC1oYW5kLWhvbGRpbmctcmVtb3RlLXdhdGNoaW5nLXN0cmVhbWluZy10di5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjEzMTIvbGVmdC1oYW5kLWhvbGRpbmctcmVtb3RlLXdhdGNoaW5nLXN0cmVhbWluZy10di5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>特斯拉的挣扎难以忽视</h2>
<p>多年来，特斯拉的股东习惯于看到公司注册令人瞩目的销售增长。然而，情况现在并不那么乐观。在第一季度，其汽车收入同比下降了 20%。在 2024 年，它报告了首次出现的交付量同比下降。而且，由于利率上升和竞争环境加剧，公司盈利能力持续下滑，给其汽车需求带来了下行压力。</p>
<p>马斯克在政治领域的推动最初可能被一些投资者视为积极，因为他正在为自己在华盛顿特区获得更多影响力而努力，这可能从监管角度使特斯拉受益。但他在唐纳德·特朗普总统内圈的时间以及他最近退出政治的举动，以及他与特朗普之间的公开争执，都是巨大的干扰，确实损害了特斯拉的品牌。</p>
<p>可以肯定地说，这家曾经在快车道上的公司现在正陷入交通堵塞。特斯拉需要做大量工作才能恢复往日的辉煌。</p>
<h2>奈飞持续获胜</h2>
<p>尽管特斯拉面临重回正轨的挑战，奈飞却继续蓬勃发展。这家流媒体股票在过去十年中上涨了 1,200%。该公司在 2024 年新增了 4100 万净客户，使其总数在年底接近 3.02 亿。虽然奈飞选择从今年开始停止公开报告其订阅用户数量，但在第一季度，其收入同比增长了 12.5%。</p>
<p>这家流媒体平台似乎已经饱和。然而，联合首席执行官格雷格·彼得斯认为，仍然有 “数亿人可以注册”。通过继续专注于在全球范围内创造引人入胜的内容，奈飞有能力继续扩展。华尔街的共识分析师预计，其收入在 2024 年至 2027 年间将以 12.3% 的复合年增长率上升。</p>
<p>流媒体行业与汽车市场一样，竞争非常激烈。奈飞的联合创始人和前首席执行官里德·哈斯廷斯曾表示，他将睡眠视为公司的主要竞争对手。我认为这并不夸张。奈飞面临着消费者在放松和休息时可以进行的所有其他活动的竞争。</p>
<p>但更具体地说，今天人们几乎可以随时随地选择无限的观看选项。尽管如此，奈飞仍处于领先地位。尼尔森的数据表明，奈飞在美国 4 月份占据了 7.5% 的视频观看时间，仅次于 YouTube，由于后者主要以用户生成内容为主，因此并不完全可比。</p>
<p>凭借其庞大的订阅用户基础和过去 12 个月的 400 亿美元收入，奈飞在内容和营销方面有很强的财务实力。它每年仍能带来数十亿美元的自由现金流。</p>
<p>值得强调的是，“七大奇迹” 并不是像 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 那样的官方指数。然而，随着每个季度的过去，奈飞继续证明自己值得与该组中的科技巨头提及。鉴于这家流媒体先驱的持续成功，它应该在那个独特的俱乐部中，而不是特斯拉。</p>

奈飞

<p>文章认为奈飞应该取代特斯拉在 “七大巨头” 中的位置，原因是特斯拉的汽车收入下降和盈利能力面临挑战，包括第一季度同比下降 20% 的收入和首次出现交付量下降。相比之下，奈飞在过去十年中股价上涨了 1200%，在 2024 年新增了 4100 万客户，并在第一季度实现了 12.5% 的收入增长。凭借强劲的财务状况和对内容的关注，奈飞有望继续取得成功，这为其在科技巨头中占有一席之地提供了有力的支持</p>

<p>Looking back over the past decade and beyond, I don't think there are many folks out there who would deny just how impressive <strong>Tesla</strong>'s success has been. This innovative business, led by polarizing CEO Elon Musk, disrupted the global auto industry with its electric vehicles (EVs).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>回顾过去十年及更久，我认为没有多少人会否认 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 的成功是多么令人印象深刻。这家由颇具争议的首席执行官埃隆·马斯克领导的创新企业，以其电动汽车（EV）颠覆了全球汽车行业。</p>
</div><p>While the EV stock trades 32% below its peak (as of June 10), that's still a gain of 1,810% in the past 10 years. That long-term performance made it one of the world's largest tech companies, which is why Bank of America analyst Michael Hartnett gave it a spot in the &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; when he introduced the idea of the group in 2023. However, I think it's time to swap the EV maker out of this unofficial grouping and replace it with the more-deserving <strong>Netflix</strong>(NFLX -0.35%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管截至 6 月 10 日，电动车股票的交易价格比峰值低 32%，但在过去十年中仍然上涨了 1,810%。这种长期表现使其成为全球最大的科技公司之一，这也是为什么美国银行分析师迈克尔·哈特内特在 2023 年提出 “七大奇迹” 时将其纳入其中。然而，我认为是时候将这家电动车制造商从这个非正式的分组中移除，并用更有资格的 <strong>奈飞</strong>（NFLX -0.35%）替代。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjEzMTIvbGVmdC1oYW5kLWhvbGRpbmctcmVtb3RlLXdhdGNoaW5nLXN0cmVhbWluZy10di5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F821312%2Fleft-hand-holding-remote-watching-streaming-tv.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla's struggles are hard to ignore</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉的挣扎难以忽视</h2>
</div><p>Over the years, Tesla shareholders grew used to seeing the company register jaw-dropping sales growth. The picture isn't so rosy anymore, though. Its automotive revenue declined 20% year over year in Q1. In 2024, it reported its first-ever year-over-year drop in deliveries. And the company's profitability has continued to slide as higher interest rates and a more competitive environment have put downward pressure on demand for its vehicles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多年来，特斯拉的股东习惯于看到公司注册令人瞩目的销售增长。然而，情况现在并不那么乐观。在第一季度，其汽车收入同比下降了 20%。在 2024 年，它报告了首次出现的交付量同比下降。而且，由于利率上升和竞争环境加剧，公司盈利能力持续下滑，给其汽车需求带来了下行压力。</p>
</div><p>Musk's push in the political arena might at first have been viewed positively by some investors, as he was positioning himself to have more influence in Washington, D.C., which could have benefited Tesla from a regulatory perspective. But both his time in President Donald Trump's inner circle and his more recent exit from politics, as well as his highly public spat with Trump, have been huge distractions that have certainly damaged Tesla's brand instead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马斯克在政治领域的推动最初可能被一些投资者视为积极，因为他正在为自己在华盛顿特区获得更多影响力而努力，这可能从监管角度使特斯拉受益。但他在唐纳德·特朗普总统内圈的时间以及他最近退出政治的举动，以及他与特朗普之间的公开争执，都是巨大的干扰，确实损害了特斯拉的品牌。</p>
</div><p>It's safe to say that a company that was once in the fast lane is now stuck in traffic. Tesla will have a lot of work to do in order to get back to its prior glory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可以肯定地说，这家曾经在快车道上的公司现在正陷入交通堵塞。特斯拉需要做大量工作才能恢复往日的辉煌。</p>
</div><h2>Netflix just keeps winning</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>奈飞持续获胜</h2>
</div><p>While Tesla faces a battle to get itself back on track, Netflix continues to flourish. The streaming stock is up 1,200% in the last decade. The company added 41 million net new customers in 2024, bringing its total to nearly 302 million at year's end. While Netflix chose to stop publicly reporting the number of subscribers it has starting this year, it did increase revenue by 12.5% year over year in the first quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管特斯拉面临重回正轨的挑战，奈飞却继续蓬勃发展。这家流媒体股票在过去十年中上涨了 1,200%。该公司在 2024 年新增了 4100 万净客户，使其总数在年底接近 3.02 亿。虽然奈飞选择从今年开始停止公开报告其订阅用户数量，但在第一季度，其收入同比增长了 12.5%。</p>
</div><p>It might seem like this streaming platform has saturated its market. However, co-CEO Greg Peters believes there are still &#34;hundreds of millions of folks to sign up.&#34; By continuing to focus on creating compelling content offerings all over the world, Netflix is in a position to keep its expansion going. Wall Street's consensus analyst estimates are for its revenue to rise at a compound annual rate of 12.3% between 2024 and 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家流媒体平台似乎已经饱和。然而，联合首席执行官格雷格·彼得斯认为，仍然有 “数亿人可以注册”。通过继续专注于在全球范围内创造引人入胜的内容，奈飞有能力继续扩展。华尔街的共识分析师预计，其收入在 2024 年至 2027 年间将以 12.3% 的复合年增长率上升。</p>
</div><p>The streaming industry, like the automotive market, is extremely competitive. Netflix co-founder and former CEO Reed Hastings previously said that he counts sleep among the company's key competitors. I don't believe this was a stretch. Netflix goes up against all the other activities consumers can do when it's time to wind down and relax.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>流媒体行业与汽车市场一样，竞争非常激烈。奈飞的联合创始人和前首席执行官里德·哈斯廷斯曾表示，他将睡眠视为公司的主要竞争对手。我认为这并不夸张。奈飞面临着消费者在放松和休息时可以进行的所有其他活动的竞争。</p>
</div><p>But to be more specific, people have an almost unlimited number of viewing options at their fingertips today. Netflix is in the lead, though. Data from Nielsen shows that Netflix commanded 7.5% of video viewing time in the U.S. in April, only behind YouTube, which isn't necessarily an apples-to-apples comparison due to the latter largely featuring user-generated content.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但更具体地说，今天人们几乎可以随时随地选择无限的观看选项。尽管如此，奈飞仍处于领先地位。尼尔森的数据表明，奈飞在美国 4 月份占据了 7.5% 的视频观看时间，仅次于 YouTube，由于后者主要以用户生成内容为主，因此并不完全可比。</p>
</div><p>With its massive subscriber base, and trailing 12-month revenue of $40 billion, Netflix has the financial strength to spend a lot on content and marketing. And it's still able to bring in billions in free cash flow each year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>凭借其庞大的订阅用户基础和过去 12 个月的 400 亿美元收入，奈飞在内容和营销方面有很强的财务实力。它每年仍能带来数十亿美元的自由现金流。</p>
</div><p>It's important to highlight that the &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; is not an official index like the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> is. However, with each passing quarter, Netflix continues to make the case that it deserves to be mentioned with the tech giants in that group. Given the streaming pioneer's ongoing success, it belongs in that exclusive club instead of Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得强调的是，“七大奇迹” 并不是像 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 那样的官方指数。然而，随着每个季度的过去，奈飞继续证明自己值得与该组中的科技巨头提及。鉴于这家流媒体先驱的持续成功，它应该在那个独特的俱乐部中，而不是特斯拉。</p>
</div>

Why Netflix Should Replace Tesla in the "Magnificent Seven"

- 特斯拉在过去十年取得了 1,810% 的增长，但近期面临销售和盈利下滑。  
- Netflix 在 2024 年新增 4100 万用户，收入同比增长 12.5%。  
- 分析师认为 Netflix 应取代特斯拉，成为 “七大巨头” 之一。  

为什么奈飞应该取代特斯拉，成为 “七大巨头” 之一