<p>亿万富翁埃隆·马斯克正在努力确保联邦电动车（EV）税收激励措施——这一使购买电动车更为实惠的关键补贴——得以保留。唐纳德·特朗普总统的新法案试图取消这些税收激励措施，否则这些激励措施将持续到 2032 年。</p>
<p>马斯克的公司 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 2.00%）已经在多个关键市场的销售增长上遇到了困难。上个季度的交付量环比下降了 32%，同比下降了 13%。取消电动车税收抵免是否会对这家挣扎中的汽车制造商造成致命打击？你可能会对答案感到惊讶。</p>
<h2>特斯拉拥有巨大的资本优势</h2>
<p>在潜在的监管可能 “扼杀” 像特斯拉这样的运营企业时，投资者首先必须考虑的是对销售增长的影响。特斯拉的需求增长已经停滞。尽管公司曾暗示过像机器人出租车这样的新潜在收入来源，但在未来一两年内并没有很多高可见度的里程碑能够显著提升收入。分析师预计公司将更新现有产品线，但关于 2025 年或 2026 年推出全新车型的细节仍然稀缺。即使推出新车型，在接下来的 12 到 24 个月内，生产规模也不太可能显著扩大。</p>
<p>这使得特斯拉在短期内处于何种境地？仍然处于今天的状态，试图刺激对日益乏味的产品线的需求。将公司的车辆价格提高 4000 到 7500 美元——特朗普提议取消的联邦激励范围——最终可能会_加速_特斯拉的销售下降。与此同时，推出更实惠的 Model Y 或 Model 3 所带来的任何潜在需求提升，可能会被取消的税收抵免完全抵消，从而导致客户的净节省微乎其微。作为回报，特斯拉可能需要压缩其利润率，以保持需求增长的轨迹。</p>
<p>幸运的是，特斯拉拥有足够的资本来承受多年的销售增长停滞。它的现金及现金等价物达到 160 亿美元，超过所有其他竞争对手。其利润率也是正值——在电动车行业中极为罕见——这意味着它可以在不亏损的情况下稍微降低利润。尽管需要提到的是，特斯拉还依赖于销售汽车监管信用——通过销售无碳车辆获得——来维持盈利能力。上个季度，公司通过销售这些信用获得了 5.95 亿美元的收入，而净收入为 4.09 亿美元。但大部分来自销售信用的 “免费” 收入来自加利福尼亚州和纽约州，以及欧盟的激励计划，因此如果美国联邦激励措施发生变化，这些收入不太可能被削减。</p>
<p>尽管如此，特斯拉最大的优势在于其 1 万亿美元的市值。特斯拉可以轻松将其资产负债表上的现金水平翻倍，同时稀释股东仅 1% 到 2%。这使得公司在短期内不太可能破产。事实上，取消电动车税收抵免可能对特斯拉来说是一个秘密的胜利。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjExNjUvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQyODYwNjE2Mi0xMjAweDg1Ny1lYjk3NTkxLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="499" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjExNjUvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQyODYwNjE2Mi0xMjAweDg1Ny1lYjk3NTkxLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>取消电动车税收抵免实际上可能有利于特斯拉</h2>
<p>许多投资者可能会惊讶地发现，<strong>埃克森美孚</strong> 希望实施碳税。碳税将使其产出对买家来说更为昂贵，可能限制需求。但如果生产成本上升，许多小竞争对手可能无法竞争，从而为像埃克森这样的资本雄厚的巨头留出更多市场。</p>
<p>同样的情况也可能适用于特斯拉。它的大部分电动车竞争对手来自于盈利能力微薄、容错空间极小的公司，如 <strong>Rivian</strong> 和 <strong>Lucid Group</strong>。这些电动车制造商的规模大约是特斯拉的 1%，在随意获取更多资本的能力上有限。取消电动车税收抵免将对它们造成更大的伤害，可能为马斯克及其投资者留下更多长期市场份额。</p>
<p>当然，立即的影响对特斯拉和整个行业来说都是负面的。但需要强调的是，法案并不等同于法律。电动车税收抵免可能会像之前计划的那样持续到 2032 年。但取消这些补贴肯定不会 “扼杀” 特斯拉。事实上，有一种观点认为，这可能由于竞争减少而成为长期优势。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方两倍做多特斯拉

南方两倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>埃隆·马斯克正在倡导继续联邦电动车（EV）的税收激励，因为特朗普总统的新法案提议取消这些激励。这可能对特斯拉产生负面影响，特斯拉的销量已经出现下降。然而，特斯拉强大的资本状况，拥有 160 亿美元的现金和 1 万亿美元的市值，可能使其能够承受潜在的停滞。有趣的是，取消电动车税收抵免可能会使较小的竞争对手处于不利地位，尽管初期会有负面影响，但从长远来看可能会使特斯拉受益</p>

<p>Billionaire Elon Musk is fighting to make sure federal tax incentives for electric vehicles (EVs) -- a key subsidy that makes buying EVs more affordable -- remain in place. President Donald Trump's new bill seeks to eliminate these tax incentives, which would otherwise be in place until 2032.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亿万富翁埃隆·马斯克正在努力确保联邦电动车（EV）税收激励措施——这一使购买电动车更为实惠的关键补贴——得以保留。唐纳德·特朗普总统的新法案试图取消这些税收激励措施，否则这些激励措施将持续到 2032 年。</p>
</div><p>Musk's company <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 2.00%) has already seen sales struggle to grow across many key geographies. Deliveries last quarter fell by 32% quarter over quarter, and by 13% year over year. Could the elimination of EV tax credits be a lethal blow to the struggling automaker? You might be surprised by the answer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马斯克的公司 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 2.00%）已经在多个关键市场的销售增长上遇到了困难。上个季度的交付量环比下降了 32%，同比下降了 13%。取消电动车税收抵免是否会对这家挣扎中的汽车制造商造成致命打击？你可能会对答案感到惊讶。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla has a massive capital advantage</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉拥有巨大的资本优势</h2>
</div><p>When it comes to potential regulation &#34;killing&#34; an operating business like Tesla, the first thing investors must consider is the effect on sales growth. Already, demand growth has been stagnating for Tesla. And while the company has teased new potential revenue sources like its robotaxi venture, there aren't many high-visibility milestones ahead that will meaningfully boost revenue over the next year or two. Analysts expect the company to refresh its existing lineup, but details are scarce on releasing any brand new models in 2025 or 2026. Even if a new model is released, it's unlikely that production will scale meaningfully over the next 12 to 24 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在潜在的监管可能 “扼杀” 像特斯拉这样的运营企业时，投资者首先必须考虑的是对销售增长的影响。特斯拉的需求增长已经停滞。尽管公司曾暗示过像机器人出租车这样的新潜在收入来源，但在未来一两年内并没有很多高可见度的里程碑能够显著提升收入。分析师预计公司将更新现有产品线，但关于 2025 年或 2026 年推出全新车型的细节仍然稀缺。即使推出新车型，在接下来的 12 到 24 个月内，生产规模也不太可能显著扩大。</p>
</div><p>Where does this leave Tesla over the near term? In the same position it is in today, attempting to stoke demand for an increasingly stale lineup. Making the company's vehicles $4,000 to $7,500 more expensive -- the range of Federal incentives that Trump is proposing to eliminate -- could ultimately <em>accelerate</em> sales declines for Tesla. Any potential demand boost from releasing a more affordable Model Y or Model 3, meanwhile, could be completely offset by eliminated tax credits, resulting in minimal net savings for customers. In return, Tesla may need to compress its profit margins in order to keep demand growth on track.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这使得特斯拉在短期内处于何种境地？仍然处于今天的状态，试图刺激对日益乏味的产品线的需求。将公司的车辆价格提高 4000 到 7500 美元——特朗普提议取消的联邦激励范围——最终可能会_加速_特斯拉的销售下降。与此同时，推出更实惠的 Model Y 或 Model 3 所带来的任何潜在需求提升，可能会被取消的税收抵免完全抵消，从而导致客户的净节省微乎其微。作为回报，特斯拉可能需要压缩其利润率，以保持需求增长的轨迹。</p>
</div><p>Fortunately, Tesla has the capital to withstand a multiyear stagnation in sales growth. It has $16 billion in cash and equivalents on the books, more than every other competitor. Its profit margins are also positive -- a rarity in the EV world -- meaning it can afford to cut profits a bit without going into the red. Though it should be mentioned that Tesla has also relied on selling automotive regulator credits -- earned by selling carbon-free vehicles -- to maintain profitability. The company earned $595 million last quarter by selling these credits versus a net income of $409 million. But most of this &#34;free&#34; income from selling credits comes from states like California and New York, as well as incentive programs in the E.U., making them unlikely to be cut should U.S. federal incentives change.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>幸运的是，特斯拉拥有足够的资本来承受多年的销售增长停滞。它的现金及现金等价物达到 160 亿美元，超过所有其他竞争对手。其利润率也是正值——在电动车行业中极为罕见——这意味着它可以在不亏损的情况下稍微降低利润。尽管需要提到的是，特斯拉还依赖于销售汽车监管信用——通过销售无碳车辆获得——来维持盈利能力。上个季度，公司通过销售这些信用获得了 5.95 亿美元的收入，而净收入为 4.09 亿美元。但大部分来自销售信用的 “免费” 收入来自加利福尼亚州和纽约州，以及欧盟的激励计划，因此如果美国联邦激励措施发生变化，这些收入不太可能被削减。</p>
</div><p>Still, Tesla's biggest advantage is its $1 trillion market cap. Tesla could easily double the cash levels on its balance sheet while diluting shareholders by just 1% to 2%. This makes it very unlikely for the company to go under anytime soon. In fact, the elimination of EV tax credits could be a secret win for Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，特斯拉最大的优势在于其 1 万亿美元的市值。特斯拉可以轻松将其资产负债表上的现金水平翻倍，同时稀释股东仅 1% 到 2%。这使得公司在短期内不太可能破产。事实上，取消电动车税收抵免可能对特斯拉来说是一个秘密的胜利。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjExNjUvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQyODYwNjE2Mi0xMjAweDg1Ny1lYjk3NTkxLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F821165%2Fgettyimages-1428606162-1200x857-eb97591.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Eliminating EV tax credits could actually help Tesla</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>取消电动车税收抵免实际上可能有利于特斯拉</h2>
</div><p>Many investors might be surprised to learn that <strong>ExxonMobil</strong> wishes for a carbon tax to be implemented. A carbon tax would make its output more expensive to buyers, potentially limiting demand. But if production costs rise, it's possible that many small competitors can't compete, leaving more of the market for well-capitalized behemoths like Exxon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多投资者可能会惊讶地发现，<strong>埃克森美孚</strong> 希望实施碳税。碳税将使其产出对买家来说更为昂贵，可能限制需求。但如果生产成本上升，许多小竞争对手可能无法竞争，从而为像埃克森这样的资本雄厚的巨头留出更多市场。</p>
</div><p>The same may prove true for Tesla. Most of its EV competition comes from unprofitable companies with minimal room for error like <strong>Rivian</strong> and <strong>Lucid Group</strong>. These EV makers are roughly 99% smaller than Tesla, with limited ability to tap the market for more capital at will. The elimination of EV tax credits would hurt them more than Tesla, potentially leaving more long-term market share for Musk and his investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同样的情况也可能适用于特斯拉。它的大部分电动车竞争对手来自于盈利能力微薄、容错空间极小的公司，如 <strong>Rivian</strong> 和 <strong>Lucid Group</strong>。这些电动车制造商的规模大约是特斯拉的 1%，在随意获取更多资本的能力上有限。取消电动车税收抵免将对它们造成更大的伤害，可能为马斯克及其投资者留下更多长期市场份额。</p>
</div><p>Of course, the immediate effect will be negative for Tesla and the rest of the industry. But it should be stressed that bills are not laws. The EV tax credit may end up in place until 2032 like previously planned. But the elimination of these subsidies certainly won't &#34;kill&#34; Tesla. In fact, there's an argument that it could be a long-term advantage due to lessened competition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，立即的影响对特斯拉和整个行业来说都是负面的。但需要强调的是，法案并不等同于法律。电动车税收抵免可能会像之前计划的那样持续到 2032 年。但取消这些补贴肯定不会 “扼杀” 特斯拉。事实上，有一种观点认为，这可能由于竞争减少而成为长期优势。</p>
</div>

Trump's Bill Would End EV Subsidies: Could This Kill Tesla?

- 特斯拉面临联邦电动车税收激励被取消的风险，销售增长停滞。  
- 特斯拉拥有 160 亿美元现金，能够承受销售增长停滞的压力。  
- 取消税收激励可能对小型竞争对手造成更大影响，反而利好特斯拉。

特朗普的法案将终止电动汽车补贴：这会对特斯拉造成致命打击吗？