<p><strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 2.00%）是过去 10 年表现最好的股票之一，股东收益接近 2000%，远超大盘平均水平。然而，过去三年则更加痛苦。尽管仍上涨 40%，特斯拉在过去三年中落后于纳斯达克 100 指数的 88% 累计回报，因市场份额损失、利润缩减以及近期产品失利，电动车（EV）领头羊的地位受到冲击。</p><p>今年股价下跌约 14%，投资者开始再次怀疑埃隆·马斯克和特斯拉股票。这应该让逆向投资者对潜在的买入机会感到兴奋，因为大多数人都在回避这只曾经的赢家股票。购买特斯拉股票会是你今年做出的最明智的决定，以对抗这些怀疑者吗？让我们深入数字，进一步调查。</p><h2 id="mu9g3jz9n">下降的汽车销量</h2><p>特斯拉过去股票表现的主要来源于其电动车部门的增长。作为行业的先锋，特斯拉在几年前凭借其 Model 3 和 Y 车型主导了新的电动车销售，使收入接近 1000 亿美元，营业收入超过 100 亿美元。现在，这些数字都在朝着错误的方向发展。</p><p>上个季度，特斯拉的电动车交付量同比下降 13%，降至 337,000 辆，这一趋势已经持续了多个季度。加上售价下跌，特斯拉的汽车销售下降了 20%，上个季度的总营业收入同比下降了 66%，抹去了特斯拉之前的盈利能力。</p><p>在过去 12 个月中，特斯拉的营业收入为 70 亿美元，比历史最高点下降了 50%。中国、欧洲和美国的需求趋势似乎也指向持续下降，交付预估下滑，二手特斯拉价格下跌，而平均二手车价格上涨，这都是汽车品牌需求的前瞻性指标。总体而言，特斯拉的电动车业务在 2025 年处于糟糕的境地，这就是投资者开始再次怀疑该股票的原因。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/edac4d7c34eb6babce7308425a064dcb?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/edac4d7c34eb6babce7308425a064dcb"/></figure><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p><h2 id="rtdi4bk8l">机器人出租车能拯救公司吗？</h2><p>不过，特斯拉不仅仅依赖电动车销售。至少，首席执行官埃隆·马斯克是这么说的。这位特斯拉的挑衅性和表演性领导者一直在宣传特斯拉在自动驾驶出租车方面的进展，这意味着利用部署在特斯拉车辆上的摄像头/传感器为客户自动驾驶。长期来看，特斯拉希望建立一个类似于 Waymo 的自动驾驶出租车网络，尽管目前细节尚不明确。</p><p>首先，特斯拉需要证明这项自动驾驶技术确实有效。埃隆·马斯克最初表示将在 6 月 12 日在奥斯汀推出特斯拉机器人出租车，但后来将其修订为 6 月 22 日，并声称特斯拉机器人出租车将从奥斯汀一路开到洛杉矶。</p><p>虽然自动驾驶汽车听起来令人兴奋，但埃隆·马斯克已经声称特斯拉的技术接近准备好整整十年了。2017 年，他表示一辆特斯拉将从纽约市自动驾驶到洛杉矶，但这从未发生。许多批评特斯拉自动驾驶方法的人指出其使用摄像头而非激光雷达技术。摄像头在恶劣天气下操作起来很棘手。</p><p>机器人出租车网络具有巨大的经济潜力，更不用说为社会提供更安全的道路和自动化一项乏味且耗时的任务的巨大价值主张。我愿意参与。然而，我们已经有一家领先的自动驾驶公司：Waymo。该出租车网络每周为客户提供 250,000 次出行，并以惊人的速度增长。特斯拉要赶上 Waymo 将需要付出巨大的努力。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/059340974689aba86125b9d324b952c6?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/059340974689aba86125b9d324b952c6"/></figure><p>TSLA 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts。</p><h2 id="ucniofczd">关于特斯拉股票的真相</h2><p>埃隆·马斯克可能会谈论特斯拉即将推出的产品将使股票达到新高的事情。然而，现实情况却大相径庭。Cybertruck 是一场失败，正在为公司烧钱，Optimus 机器人距离部署还有数年，而自动驾驶技术近十年来一直是一个虚假的承诺。</p><p>目前，特斯拉是一家销量下滑、利润下降、全球竞争加剧的电动车制造商。其股票也并不便宜。在万亿美元的市值下，特斯拉的市盈率为 178，这意味着市场对该公司的盈利增长寄予了厚望，而其盈利目前正朝着完全错误的方向发展。这给今天的股东带来了更大的风险。</p><p>购买特斯拉股票对于今年的投资者来说并不是明智的决定。其股票被高估，并且面临重大下行风险。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方两倍做多特斯拉

南方两倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>特斯拉的股票在过去十年中经历了显著增长，但最近表现不佳，落后于纳斯达克 100 指数。今年股价下跌 14%，电动车交付量下降，投资者对公司的未来产生了质疑。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克对无人驾驶出租车的雄心勃勃计划面临怀疑，而股票的高市盈率则暗示其被高估。总体来看，特斯拉股票的前景似乎风险较大，因此对于投资者来说，今年买入可能并不明智</p>

<p><strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 2.00%) is one of the best-performing stocks of the last 10 years, up close to 2,000% for shareholders and crushing the broad market averages. The last three years have been more painful. Still up 40%, Tesla has trailed the Nasdaq 100 Index's 88% cumulative return in the last three years, with struggles hitting the leader in electric vehicles (EVs) because of market share losses, shrinking margins, and recent product flops.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 2.00%）是过去 10 年表现最好的股票之一，股东收益接近 2000%，远超大盘平均水平。然而，过去三年则更加痛苦。尽管仍上涨 40%，特斯拉在过去三年中落后于纳斯达克 100 指数的 88% 累计回报，因市场份额损失、利润缩减以及近期产品失利，电动车（EV）领头羊的地位受到冲击。</p>
</div><p>Down around 14% this year, investors are beginning to doubt Elon Musk and Tesla stock again. This should have contrarian investors perked up at a potential buying opportunity as most shy away from the once winning stock. Would buying Tesla stock be the smartest decision you make this year to bet against these doubters? Let's dig into the numbers and investigate further.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年股价下跌约 14%，投资者开始再次怀疑埃隆·马斯克和特斯拉股票。这应该让逆向投资者对潜在的买入机会感到兴奋，因为大多数人都在回避这只曾经的赢家股票。购买特斯拉股票会是你今年做出的最明智的决定，以对抗这些怀疑者吗？让我们深入数字，进一步调查。</p>
</div><h2>Declining car volumes</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>下降的汽车销量</h2>
</div><p>The bulk of Tesla's past stock performance has come from the growth of its EV division. Pioneering the industry, Tesla dominated new EV sales for a few years with its Model 3 and Y concepts, leading revenue to come close to $100 billion and operating income to soar past $10 billion. Now, these figures are all moving in the wrong direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉过去股票表现的主要来源于其电动车部门的增长。作为行业的先锋，特斯拉在几年前凭借其 Model 3 和 Y 车型主导了新的电动车销售，使收入接近 1000 亿美元，营业收入超过 100 亿美元。现在，这些数字都在朝着错误的方向发展。</p>
</div><p>Last quarter, Tesla's total EV deliveries fell 13% year over year to 337,000, a trend that has occurred for many quarters now. Combined with falling selling prices, Tesla's automotive sales fell 20%, and total income from operations fell 66% year over year last quarter, wiping out a ton of Tesla's prior profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上个季度，特斯拉的电动车交付量同比下降 13%，降至 337,000 辆，这一趋势已经持续了多个季度。加上售价下跌，特斯拉的汽车销售下降了 20%，上个季度的总营业收入同比下降了 66%，抹去了特斯拉之前的盈利能力。</p>
</div><p>Over the last 12 months, Tesla posted $7 billion in operating income, down 50% from all-time highs. Trends in demand across China, Europe, and the United States seem to point to continued declines as well, with delivery estimates falling and used Tesla prices dipping while average used car prices rise, a forward indicator of demand for an automotive brand. Overall, Tesla's EV business is in a terrible spot in 2025, which is why investors are beginning to doubt the stock again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去 12 个月中，特斯拉的营业收入为 70 亿美元，比历史最高点下降了 50%。中国、欧洲和美国的需求趋势似乎也指向持续下降，交付预估下滑，二手特斯拉价格下跌，而平均二手车价格上涨，这都是汽车品牌需求的前瞻性指标。总体而言，特斯拉的电动车业务在 2025 年处于糟糕的境地，这就是投资者开始再次怀疑该股票的原因。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjE1ODYvZWxlY3RyaWMtdmVoaWNsZXMtMi5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F821586%2Felectric-vehicles-2.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Will robotaxis save the company?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>机器人出租车能拯救公司吗？</h2>
</div><p>Tesla is more than just EV sales, though. At least, that is what CEO Elon Musk claims. The provocative and showman leader of Tesla has been hyping Tesla's developments in self-driving taxis, which means utilizing the cameras/sensors deployed on Tesla vehicles to autonomously drive cars for its customers. In the long run, Tesla hopes to build a self-driving taxi network similar to Waymo, although details are not clear today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，特斯拉不仅仅依赖电动车销售。至少，首席执行官埃隆·马斯克是这么说的。这位特斯拉的挑衅性和表演性领导者一直在宣传特斯拉在自动驾驶出租车方面的进展，这意味着利用部署在特斯拉车辆上的摄像头/传感器为客户自动驾驶。长期来看，特斯拉希望建立一个类似于 Waymo 的自动驾驶出租车网络，尽管目前细节尚不明确。</p>
</div><p>First, Tesla needs to prove that this self-driving technology actually works. Elon Musk originally said it would debut a Tesla robotaxi in Austin on June 12 but has since revised this to June 22 while also claiming that a Tesla robotaxi will take a trip all the way from Austin to Los Angeles as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，特斯拉需要证明这项自动驾驶技术确实有效。埃隆·马斯克最初表示将在 6 月 12 日在奥斯汀推出特斯拉机器人出租车，但后来将其修订为 6 月 22 日，并声称特斯拉机器人出租车将从奥斯汀一路开到洛杉矶。</p>
</div><p>While self-driving cars sounds exciting, Elon Musk has been claiming Tesla's technology is close to ready for a decade now. In 2017, he said a Tesla would drive itself from New York City to Los Angeles, and it never happened. Many critics of Tesla's approach to autonomous driving point to its use of cameras instead of LIDAR technology. Cameras are tricky to operate when there is bad weather.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然自动驾驶汽车听起来令人兴奋，但埃隆·马斯克已经声称特斯拉的技术接近准备好整整十年了。2017 年，他表示一辆特斯拉将从纽约市自动驾驶到洛杉矶，但这从未发生。许多批评特斯拉自动驾驶方法的人指出其使用摄像头而非激光雷达技术。摄像头在恶劣天气下操作起来很棘手。</p>
</div><p>A robotaxi network has huge economic promise, not to mention a giant value proposition for society in the way of safer roads and automating a boring and time-consuming task. Sign me up. However, we already have a leading, self-driving company: Waymo. The taxi network does 250,000 weekly trips for customers and is growing at a blistering pace. It will take a herculean feat for Tesla to catch up to Waymo.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>机器人出租车网络具有巨大的经济潜力，更不用说为社会提供更安全的道路和自动化一项乏味且耗时的任务的巨大价值主张。我愿意参与。然而，我们已经有一家领先的自动驾驶公司：Waymo。该出租车网络每周为客户提供 250,000 次出行，并以惊人的速度增长。特斯拉要赶上 Waymo 将需要付出巨大的努力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/979e4b210676669fb48f781fbf213b2c.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/979e4b210676669fb48f781fbf213b2c.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA PE Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSLA 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>The truth about Tesla stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>关于特斯拉股票的真相</h2>
</div><p>Elon Musk may talk to the moon and back about Tesla's upcoming products that will take the stock to new heights. The reality on the ground is much different. The Cybertruck is a flop and burning money for the company, Optimus robots are years away from deployment, and self-driving technology has been a false promise for close to a decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>埃隆·马斯克可能会谈论特斯拉即将推出的产品将使股票达到新高的事情。然而，现实情况却大相径庭。Cybertruck 是一场失败，正在为公司烧钱，Optimus 机器人距离部署还有数年，而自动驾驶技术近十年来一直是一个虚假的承诺。</p>
</div><p>At the moment, Tesla is an EV manufacturer with falling sales, declining margins, and increasing competition globally. Its stock is not cheap either. At a trillion-dollar market cap, Tesla has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 178, which is pricing in huge earnings growth for the company when its earnings are currently moving in the completely wrong direction. This presents even more risk for shareholders today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，特斯拉是一家销量下滑、利润下降、全球竞争加剧的电动车制造商。其股票也并不便宜。在万亿美元的市值下，特斯拉的市盈率为 178，这意味着市场对该公司的盈利增长寄予了厚望，而其盈利目前正朝着完全错误的方向发展。这给今天的股东带来了更大的风险。</p>
</div><p>Buying Tesla stock would not be a smart decision for investors this year. Its shares are overvalued and have major downside risk from here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>购买特斯拉股票对于今年的投资者来说并不是明智的决定。其股票被高估，并且面临重大下行风险。</p>
</div>

Could Buying Tesla Stock Today Be the Smartest Decision You Make This Year?

- 特斯拉股价在过去十年上涨近 2,000%，但近三年表现不佳，仅上涨 40%。  
- 最近季度，特斯拉电动车交付量同比下降 13%，运营收入下降 66%。  
- 特斯拉面临销售下滑、利润下降及竞争加剧，股票被认为高估，风险加大。  

今年购买特斯拉股票可能是你做出的最明智的决定吗？