<p>今天，<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 2.00%）面临着诸多不确定性。其电动车（EV）销量正在下降，首席执行官曾是美国总统的顾问，但现在关系变得更加冷淡，同时公司正在投资于多项新技术，以推动未来的增长。我们目前正目睹一家处于十字路口的公司；接下来的几年对特斯拉及其股票的长期走势至关重要，目前其市值为 1 万亿美元。</p><p>这是我对特斯拉未来发展的预测，以及这对股票的意义。</p><h2 id="8fqfwjc5">增加的电动车竞争，尤其是在海外</h2><p>在过去几年中，电动车竞争对特斯拉的主导市场地位构成了威胁。在美国，特斯拉的新电动车销量市场份额已降至 43.5%，而 2022 年初为 75%，这一趋势可能会随着传统汽车制造商及其他公司的电动车产品日益增多而持续。</p><p>在美国以外，情况更为严峻。在中国——特斯拉最大的市场之一——该公司正遭受来自 <strong>比亚迪</strong> 等本土竞争者的猛烈冲击，比亚迪现在在全球的汽车销量上远超特斯拉。特斯拉的交付数字正朝着错误的方向发展。</p><p>所有这些因素导致特斯拉不得不大幅降低新车售价，以激发更多客户需求，尽管这并没有对局势产生太大影响。特斯拉的汽车收入在上个季度同比下降了 20%。其 70 亿美元的营业收入已经连续多年走低，显示出电动车业务在销量和售价下降的压力下所面临的困境。</p><p>我预测在未来几年，特斯拉的电动车销量将面临更多困境，尤其是来自全球竞争对手，特别是中国的汽车供应不断增加。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/feef4f8f6b79d7509026f4986406e191?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="700" height="403" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/feef4f8f6b79d7509026f4986406e191"/></figure><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p><h2 id="yaob0z4it">一如既往的延迟新举措</h2><p>特斯拉多年来承诺将扩展业务，不仅限于电动车销售。这包括可再生能源、机器人技术、人工智能（AI）和无人驾驶机器人出租车，以帮助股票达到下一个水平。虽然公司的电池组业务在上个季度取得了 27 亿美元的收入，同比增长 67%，但其他这些举措却不断被炒作后又延迟。</p><p>最重要的是机器人出租车和无人驾驶汽车的计划。埃隆·马斯克声称，特斯拉的无人驾驶汽车距离向公众发布仅一步之遥。他再次表示，特斯拉的机器人出租车将在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出，原定于 6 月 12 日发布。现在，推迟到本月晚些时候发布，尽管我不抱太大希望。特斯拉在历史上曾多次声称推出此类产品，最著名的是 2019 年 “年底前路上有一百万辆机器人出租车” 的宣言。</p><p>虽然特斯拉最终实现其机器人出租车目标并非不可能，但考虑到过去多次承诺未能实现，这次成功的可能性应该不大。为什么这次会有所不同呢？</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/f20007ccbf90e29e7830eef4278dd367?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/f20007ccbf90e29e7830eef4278dd367"/></figure><p>TSLA 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p><h2 id="hqaas12sb">这对特斯拉股票价格的意义</h2><p>特斯拉的股票价格在很大程度上押注于公司在传统电动车销售之外的未来潜力。最近，埃隆·马斯克声称，机器人技术可以帮助特斯拉的市值达到 30 万亿美元，使其成为全球最有价值的公司。</p><p>这个想法与其当前的 1 万亿美元市值相比，似乎有些不切实际，但投资者需要放弃这种乐观情绪，回归现实。类人机器人仍处于非常早期的开发阶段，目前尚不清楚特斯拉是否是这一领域的领导者。机器人出租车一次又一次未能推出。Cybertruck 是一个重大失败，可能让公司损失了数十亿美元。</p><p>我们剩下的只有一个小型的低利润能源存储业务和一个正在衰退的电动车业务。在 175 的市盈率下，特斯拉股票今天看起来对投资者来说是一个糟糕的选择。我的预测是，未来几年股东将面临更多痛苦。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方两倍做多特斯拉

南方两倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>特斯拉面临重大挑战，因为其电动车销量下降，竞争加剧，尤其是来自中国制造商的竞争。该公司在美国的市场份额已从 75% 降至 43.5%，汽车收入同比下降 20%。承诺的机器人和自动驾驶技术扩展一再推迟，令未来增长的前景充满疑虑。由于市盈率高达 175，股票似乎是一个不佳的投资，预测显示未来几年股东将面临持续困难</p>

<p>Uncertainty abounds for <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 2.00%) today. Its electric vehicle (EV) sales are now declining, its CEO was an advisor to the President of the United States but how has a frostier relationship, and it is investing in numerous new technologies to try to drive future growth. We are currently witnessing a company at a crossroads; the next few years are crucial for Tesla and the long-term trajectory of its stock price, currently at a current market value of $1 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天，<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 2.00%）面临着诸多不确定性。其电动车（EV）销量正在下降，首席执行官曾是美国总统的顾问，但现在关系变得更加冷淡，同时公司正在投资于多项新技术，以推动未来的增长。我们目前正目睹一家处于十字路口的公司；接下来的几年对特斯拉及其股票的长期走势至关重要，目前其市值为 1 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Here's my prediction on what comes next for Tesla, and what it means for the stock going forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是我对特斯拉未来发展的预测，以及这对股票的意义。</p>
</div><h2>More EV competition, especially abroad</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>增加的电动车竞争，尤其是在海外</h2>
</div><p>In the last few years, EV competition has come for Tesla's dominant market position. In the United States, Tesla's market share of new EV sales has dropped to 43.5% compared to 75% at the start of 2022, a trend that may continue with the growing presence of EV products from legacy car manufacturers and others.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去几年中，电动车竞争对特斯拉的主导市场地位构成了威胁。在美国，特斯拉的新电动车销量市场份额已降至 43.5%，而 2022 年初为 75%，这一趋势可能会随着传统汽车制造商及其他公司的电动车产品日益增多而持续。</p>
</div><p>Outside of the United States, the numbers look even worse. In China -- one of Tesla's largest markets -- the company is getting pummeled by local players like <strong>BYD</strong>, which now sells more cars globally than Tesla by a wide margin. Tesla's delivery numbers are moving in the wrong direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美国以外，情况更为严峻。在中国——特斯拉最大的市场之一——该公司正遭受来自 <strong>比亚迪</strong> 等本土竞争者的猛烈冲击，比亚迪现在在全球的汽车销量上远超特斯拉。特斯拉的交付数字正朝着错误的方向发展。</p>
</div><p>All this has led Tesla to aggressively drop its selling prices for new vehicles to try to inspire more customer demand, although this has not done much to turn the tide. Tesla's automotive revenue sank 20% year over year last quarter. Its operating income of $7 billion has been moving in the wrong direction for multiple years now, showing the pressure the EV business is facing with declining volumes and selling prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有这些因素导致特斯拉不得不大幅降低新车售价，以激发更多客户需求，尽管这并没有对局势产生太大影响。特斯拉的汽车收入在上个季度同比下降了 20%。其 70 亿美元的营业收入已经连续多年走低，显示出电动车业务在销量和售价下降的压力下所面临的困境。</p>
</div><p>I predict more pain for Tesla's EV sales over the next few years with the rising supply of cars available from competitors around the globe, especially from China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我预测在未来几年，特斯拉的电动车销量将面临更多困境，尤其是来自全球竞争对手，特别是中国的汽车供应不断增加。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjE1OTgvaHVtYW5vaWQtcm9ib3QuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F821598%2Fhumanoid-robot.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Delayed new initiatives, as usual</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一如既往的延迟新举措</h2>
</div><p>Tesla has promised for years an expansion away from just EV sales. This includes into renewable energy, robotics, artificial intelligence (AI), and self-driving robotaxis to help take the stock to the next level. While the company's battery pack business has had some semblance of success -- generating $2.7 billion in revenue last quarter and growing 67% year over year -- the rest of these initiatives keep getting hyped and then delayed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉多年来承诺将扩展业务，不仅限于电动车销售。这包括可再生能源、机器人技术、人工智能（AI）和无人驾驶机器人出租车，以帮助股票达到下一个水平。虽然公司的电池组业务在上个季度取得了 27 亿美元的收入，同比增长 67%，但其他这些举措却不断被炒作后又延迟。</p>
</div><p>Most important is the robotaxi and self-driving car initiative. Elon Musk has claimed for a decade that self-driving Tesla vehicles are just around the corner from being released to the public. He is saying so again with the potential launch of Tesla robotaxis with no humans at the wheel in Austin, Texas, which was supposed to happen on June 12. Now, the delay is for a release later this month, although I wouldn't cross your fingers. Tesla has claimed launches such as these repeatedly in its history, most famously with the &#34;one million robotaxis on the road by the end of the year&#34; proclamation in 2019.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最重要的是机器人出租车和无人驾驶汽车的计划。埃隆·马斯克声称，特斯拉的无人驾驶汽车距离向公众发布仅一步之遥。他再次表示，特斯拉的机器人出租车将在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出，原定于 6 月 12 日发布。现在，推迟到本月晚些时候发布，尽管我不抱太大希望。特斯拉在历史上曾多次声称推出此类产品，最著名的是 2019 年 “年底前路上有一百万辆机器人出租车” 的宣言。</p>
</div><p>While it isn't impossible for Tesla to finally accomplish its robotaxi goal, the odds should be against this occurring given how many times it has been promised and then failed to happen. Why would this time be any different?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然特斯拉最终实现其机器人出租车目标并非不可能，但考虑到过去多次承诺未能实现，这次成功的可能性应该不大。为什么这次会有所不同呢？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0b9feeafc441c9495fe68814cb2cf094.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0b9feeafc441c9495fe68814cb2cf094.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSLA 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>What it all means for Tesla's stock price</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这对特斯拉股票价格的意义</h2>
</div><p>A lot of Tesla's stock price is betting on the future potential of the company's initiatives outside of traditional EV sales. Most recently, Elon Musk claimed that robotics could help Tesla's market cap get to $30 trillion, making it by far the most valuable company in the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的股票价格在很大程度上押注于公司在传统电动车销售之外的未来潜力。最近，埃隆·马斯克声称，机器人技术可以帮助特斯拉的市值达到 30 万亿美元，使其成为全球最有价值的公司。</p>
</div><p>That idea may seem fanciful compared to its current market cap of $1 trillion, but investors need to back off this optimism and return to reality. Humanoid robots are still in the very early stages of development, and it is unclear whether Tesla is the leader here. Robotaxis have failed to launch time and time again. The Cybertruck was a major flop and likely lost the company billions of dollars.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个想法与其当前的 1 万亿美元市值相比，似乎有些不切实际，但投资者需要放弃这种乐观情绪，回归现实。类人机器人仍处于非常早期的开发阶段，目前尚不清楚特斯拉是否是这一领域的领导者。机器人出租车一次又一次未能推出。Cybertruck 是一个重大失败，可能让公司损失了数十亿美元。</p>
</div><p>All we have left is a small energy storage business with low margins and a declining EV business. At a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 175, Tesla stock looks like a poor bet for investors today. My prediction is more pain for shareholders in the years to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们剩下的只有一个小型的低利润能源存储业务和一个正在衰退的电动车业务。在 175 的市盈率下，特斯拉股票今天看起来对投资者来说是一个糟糕的选择。我的预测是，未来几年股东将面临更多痛苦。</p>
</div>

Prediction: Here's What Comes Next for Tesla, and What It Could Mean for Its Stock Price

- 特斯拉面临电动车销量下降和竞争加剧的挑战。  
- 在美国市场，特斯拉的市场份额已降至 43.5%。  
- 未来几年，特斯拉股价可能继续承压。  

预测：特斯拉接下来会发生什么，以及这可能对其股价产生什么影响