<p>自 2022 年底以来，华尔街上没有哪个趋势比人工智能（AI）的发展更受重视。能够在没有人类监督的情况下做出瞬间决策的软件和系统，代表着一种在全球几乎每个行业都有广泛潜力的技术。</p>
<p>与大多数下一个重大技术一样，人工智能的可寻址市场预测各不相同。但根据普华永道分析师的一项预测，生产力提升和消费侧效应的结合可以在 2030 年前使全球国内生产总值增加 15.7 万亿美元。</p>
<p>在如此庞大的可寻址市场面前，毫无疑问，许多公司，无论是硬件/基础设施还是实际应用，都有可能成为巨大的赢家。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjE3NTgvc2lsdmVyLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtdm9sdW1lLWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="525" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjE3NTgvc2lsdmVyLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtdm9sdW1lLWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>然而，华尔街最聪明、最成功的亿万富翁基金经理似乎对华尔街的人工智能宠儿 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 1.71%）的未来回报潜力持有不同的看法。尽管 Nvidia 是 Millennium Management 套利专家以色列·英格兰德最大的个股持仓，但亿万富翁成长投资者菲利普·拉丰特（Philippe Laffont）在 Coatue Management 中已经连续八个季度出售该股票。</p>
<h2>英格兰德的 Millennium Management 在人工智能革命中大举下注</h2>
<p>在讨论之前，英格兰德管理着一个真正_庞大的_投资组合，其特点是通过许多个股头寸进行基于期权的对冲。尽管 Nvidia 不是其最大的纯持仓，但根据已执行的期权合约的名义价值，它_是_英格兰德基金中按市值计算的最大个股，排除期权合约和交易所交易基金（ETF）。Millennium 的 13F 文件显示，截至 3 月底，该基金持有 9,233,791 股。</p>
<p>亿万富翁以色列·英格兰德对 Nvidia 的明显乐观可能归结为以下四个因素之一或多个。</p>
<p>首先，Nvidia 在企业在人工智能加速的数据中心中部署的图形处理单元（GPU）方面享有垄断般的市场份额。自推出 Hopper（H100）并推出继任者 Blackwell GPU 以来，企业对 Nvidia 硬件的订单一直无法满足。</p>
<p>其次，基于前一点，AI-GPU 的需求持续超过可用供应。即使直接竞争对手（例如 <strong>超微半导体</strong> 的 Instinct 系列 GPU）正在加大生产，领先的芯片制造公司 <strong>台积电</strong> 也无法快速增加其芯片在晶圆上的产能以满足需求。只要 AI-GPU 短缺存在，Nvidia 就有理由对其销售的 GPU 收取溢价。Nvidia 的最终结果是其毛利率大幅上升。</p>
<p>像亿万富翁以色列·英格兰德这样的乐观者通常也对 Nvidia 的创新能力印象深刻。首席执行官黄仁勋（Jensen Huang）一直致力于积极投资先进芯片，并每年推出更快/更节能的 AI-GPU。今年晚些时候，Blackwell Ultra 预计将首次亮相，随后是 2026 年和 2027 年下半年推出的 Vera Rubin 和 Vera Rubin Ultra。这两款芯片将基于全新的 Vera 处理器，应该能够轻松维持 Nvidia 的计算优势。</p>
<p>最后，Nvidia 的运营表现在某种程度上也赶上了其飙升的估值。由于关税相关问题和中国 DeepSeek 的大型语言模型聊天机器人的揭示，该公司的股票在第一季度大幅下跌，Nvidia 的前瞻市盈率一度跌破 20。一些投资者显然看到了价值，即使在 Nvidia 自 2023 年初以来增加了超过 3 万亿美元的市值之后。</p>
<p>但这个故事还有另一面，菲利普·拉丰特持续出售 Nvidia 股票的行为揭示了这一点。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjE3NTgvZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItZW5naW5lZXItZ3B1LWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWFpLWNsb3VkLXNlcnZlci1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjE3NTgvZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItZW5naW5lZXItZ3B1LWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWFpLWNsb3VkLXNlcnZlci1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>拉丰特的 Coatue Management 连续两个季度出售 Nvidia 股票</h2>
<p>虽然 Coatue Management 的亿万富翁首席并不完全看空 Nvidia——它仍然是他基金中的一项可观持仓——但他已经连续八个季度出售华尔街最受欢迎的人工智能股票。考虑到 Nvidia 在 2024 年 6 月的历史性 10 比 1 前分拆，以下是自 2023 年 3 月 31 日以来 Coatue 在 Nvidia 的季度末持股变化：</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>2023 年第一季度</strong>：49,802,020 股 Nvidia</li>
<li><strong>2023 年第二季度</strong>：46,449,700 股</li>
<li><strong>2023 年第三季度</strong>：45,410,400 股</li>
<li><strong>2023 年第四季度</strong>：43,222,010 股</li>
<li><strong>2024 年第一季度</strong>：13,851,410 股</li>
<li><strong>2024 年第二季度</strong>：13,754,447 股</li>
<li><strong>2024 年第三季度</strong>：10,138,161 股</li>
<li><strong>2024 年第四季度</strong>：10,006,488 股</li>
<li><strong>2025 年第一季度</strong>：8,545,835 股</li>
</ul>
<p>重申一下，持有超过 850 万股并不是小数目——但拉丰特在过去两年中出售其基金在该公司的 83% 股份是有原因的（或四个原因）。</p>
<p>获利了结绝对是 Coatue Management 的老板以及其他减少对 Nvidia 敞口的亿万富翁们的一个可能原因。我们从未见过一家巨头公司如此迅速地增加 3 万亿美元的市值，因此兑现利润可能被视为明智之举。</p>
<p>然而，还有一个合理的预期，即未来几年 Nvidia 的竞争将会大幅加剧。尽管它在计算排行榜上没有失去领先地位的危险，但需要考虑的变量比单纯的 AI-GPU 速度要多。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2d6b75b19d03b79645e1d61322fae767.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2d6b75b19d03b79645e1d61322fae767.png"/></p>
<p>竞争压力似乎正在侵蚀英伟达的高毛利率。根据 YCharts 的数据，英伟达的毛利率（季度）。</p>
<p>例如，许多英伟达的主要客户（即 “七大巨头” 中的大多数）正在内部开发用于其数据中心的 AI 芯片。尽管这些硬件在外部并不威胁英伟达，但这些内部开发的芯片比 Hopper 和 Blackwell 便宜得多，并且更容易获得。使用内部硬件意味着英伟达未来赢得的潜在市场空间减少。这也对推动其毛利率上升的 AI-GPU 稀缺性造成了拖累。</p>
<p>拉丰特可能也对唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税和贸易政策感到担忧。在前总统乔·拜登任内开始的三年里，特朗普继续限制向中国出口高性能 AI 芯片及相关设备。特朗普总统强调国家安全以及 AI 创新需要保持在国内边界内，英伟达可能会失去来自其最大单一市场之一的数十亿美元季度销售额。</p>
<p>最后，亿万富翁菲利普·拉丰特可能意识到 AI 革命的历史先例的重要性。在过去三十多年中，每一项颠覆性技术或创新都经历了一个最终破裂的泡沫。尽管企业正在积极投资于 AI 基础设施，但大多数企业并未从其 AI 投资中获得正回报，也未优化其 AI 解决方案。人工智能作为一项技术成熟需要时间，这意味着形成、破裂并大幅拖低英伟达股价的 AI 泡沫的可能性很大。</p>
<p>尽管英伟达拥有在 AI 成熟后成为长期赢家的工具，但它具备了在不完美的早期趋势中被定价为完美公司的所有特征。</p>

英伟达

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

<p>亿万富翁投资者对英伟达（Nvidia）这一领先的人工智能股票有不同的看法。Millennium Management 的以色列·英格兰德（Israel Englander）将英伟达视为其最大股票持仓，理由是其在 GPU 市场的主导地位和强劲的需求。相反，Coatue Management 的菲利普·拉丰（Philippe Laffont）已连续八个季度出售英伟达的股票，显著减少了他的持股比例。尽管英伟达的增长和市值增加令人印象深刻，但拉丰的抛售表明谨慎，可能是由于获利了结或对估值的担忧。这些截然不同的策略突显了市场对英伟达在人工智能领域未来的复杂情绪</p>

<p>Since late 2022, no trend has been held in higher regard on Wall Street than the evolution of artificial intelligence (AI). Software and systems having the ability to make split-second decisions without human oversight represents a technology with broad-reaching potential in virtually every industry around the globe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2022 年底以来，华尔街上没有哪个趋势比人工智能（AI）的发展更受重视。能够在没有人类监督的情况下做出瞬间决策的软件和系统，代表着一种在全球几乎每个行业都有广泛潜力的技术。</p>
</div><p>As with most next-big-thing technologies, addressable market projections for AI are all over the map. But based on one prognostication from the analysts at PwC, the combination of productivity improvements and consumption-side effects can boost worldwide gross domestic product $15.7 trillion come 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与大多数下一个重大技术一样，人工智能的可寻址市场预测各不相同。但根据普华永道分析师的一项预测，生产力提升和消费侧效应的结合可以在 2030 年前使全球国内生产总值增加 15.7 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>With an addressable market this vast, there's little question that a long list of companies, both hardware/infrastructure and practical application, can be big-time winners.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在如此庞大的可寻址市场面前，毫无疑问，许多公司，无论是硬件/基础设施还是实际应用，都有可能成为巨大的赢家。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjE3NTgvc2lsdmVyLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtdm9sdW1lLWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F821758%2Fsilver-dice-buy-sell-stock-chart-volume-billionaire-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>However, Wall Street's brightest and most-successful billionaire money managers appear to have mixed feelings about the future return potential of Wall Street's AI darling, <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 1.71%). Whereas Nvidia is the largest individual stock holding for Millennium Management's arbitrage specialist Israel Englander, it's a stock that's been sold for eight consecutive quarters by billionaire growth investor extraordinaire Philippe Laffont of Coatue Management.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，华尔街最聪明、最成功的亿万富翁基金经理似乎对华尔街的人工智能宠儿 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 1.71%）的未来回报潜力持有不同的看法。尽管 Nvidia 是 Millennium Management 套利专家以色列·英格兰德最大的个股持仓，但亿万富翁成长投资者菲利普·拉丰特（Philippe Laffont）在 Coatue Management 中已经连续八个季度出售该股票。</p>
</div><h2>Englander's Millennium Management bets big on the AI revolution</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英格兰德的 Millennium Management 在人工智能革命中大举下注</h2>
</div><p>To preface this discussion, Englander oversees a truly <em>massive</em> portfolio that's highlighted by option-based hedging with many of its individual stock positions. Though Nvidia isn't its largest pure holding, based on the nominal value of fully executed options contracts, it <em>is</em> the biggest individual stock by market cap for Englander's fund, excluding options contracts and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Millennium's Form 13 filing shows the fund held 9,233,791 shares, as of the end of March.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在讨论之前，英格兰德管理着一个真正_庞大的_投资组合，其特点是通过许多个股头寸进行基于期权的对冲。尽管 Nvidia 不是其最大的纯持仓，但根据已执行的期权合约的名义价值，它_是_英格兰德基金中按市值计算的最大个股，排除期权合约和交易所交易基金（ETF）。Millennium 的 13F 文件显示，截至 3 月底，该基金持有 9,233,791 股。</p>
</div><p>Billionaire Israel Englander's apparent optimism for Nvidia can likely be boiled down to one or more of the following four factors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亿万富翁以色列·英格兰德对 Nvidia 的明显乐观可能归结为以下四个因素之一或多个。</p>
</div><p>First, Nvidia is enjoying a monopoly like market share of the graphics processing units (GPUs) being deployed by businesses in AI-accelerated data centers. Since introducing the Hopper (H100) and rolling out the successor Blackwell GPU, businesses haven't been able to order Nvidia's hardware fast enough.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，Nvidia 在企业在人工智能加速的数据中心中部署的图形处理单元（GPU）方面享有垄断般的市场份额。自推出 Hopper（H100）并推出继任者 Blackwell GPU 以来，企业对 Nvidia 硬件的订单一直无法满足。</p>
</div><p>Secondly, but building on this previous point, demand for AI-GPUs has persistently overwhelmed the available supply. Even with direct competitors ramping up their production (e.g., <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> with its Instinct series GPUs), leading chip fabrication company <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong> can't increase its chip-on-wafer-on-substrate capacity fast enough to satisfy demand. As long as AI-GPU scarcity exists, Nvidia has a reason to charge a premium for the GPUs it's selling. The end result for Nvidia has been a big uptick in its gross margin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，基于前一点，AI-GPU 的需求持续超过可用供应。即使直接竞争对手（例如 <strong>超微半导体</strong> 的 Instinct 系列 GPU）正在加大生产，领先的芯片制造公司 <strong>台积电</strong> 也无法快速增加其芯片在晶圆上的产能以满足需求。只要 AI-GPU 短缺存在，Nvidia 就有理由对其销售的 GPU 收取溢价。Nvidia 的最终结果是其毛利率大幅上升。</p>
</div><p>Optimists like billionaire Israel Englander are also typically impressed by Nvidia's innovative prowess. CEO Jensen Huang has made it a point to invest aggressively in advanced chips and bring a faster/more energy-efficient AI-GPU to market on annual basis. Later this year, Blackwell Ultra is expected to make its debut, which will be followed by Vera Rubin and Vera Rubin Ultra in the second halves of 2026 and 2027, respectively. These latter two chips will run on the brand-new Vera processor and should have no trouble sustaining Nvidia's compute advantages.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>像亿万富翁以色列·英格兰德这样的乐观者通常也对 Nvidia 的创新能力印象深刻。首席执行官黄仁勋（Jensen Huang）一直致力于积极投资先进芯片，并每年推出更快/更节能的 AI-GPU。今年晚些时候，Blackwell Ultra 预计将首次亮相，随后是 2026 年和 2027 年下半年推出的 Vera Rubin 和 Vera Rubin Ultra。这两款芯片将基于全新的 Vera 处理器，应该能够轻松维持 Nvidia 的计算优势。</p>
</div><p>Lastly, Nvidia's operating performance has somewhat caught up to its skyrocketing valuation. With shares of the company swooning during the first quarter due to tariff-related concerns and China-based DeepSeek's large language model chatbot reveal, Nvidia's forward price-to-earnings ratio briefly dipped below 20. Some investors clearly see value, even in the wake of Nvidia adding more than $3 trillion in market cap since 2023 began.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，Nvidia 的运营表现在某种程度上也赶上了其飙升的估值。由于关税相关问题和中国 DeepSeek 的大型语言模型聊天机器人的揭示，该公司的股票在第一季度大幅下跌，Nvidia 的前瞻市盈率一度跌破 20。一些投资者显然看到了价值，即使在 Nvidia 自 2023 年初以来增加了超过 3 万亿美元的市值之后。</p>
</div><p>But there's another side to this story that Philippe Laffont's persistent selling of Nvidia stock brings to light.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这个故事还有另一面，菲利普·拉丰特持续出售 Nvidia 股票的行为揭示了这一点。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjE3NTgvZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItZW5naW5lZXItZ3B1LWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWFpLWNsb3VkLXNlcnZlci1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F821758%2Fdata-center-engineer-gpu-artificial-intelligence-ai-cloud-server-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Laffont's Coatue Management has been selling Nvidia stock every quarter for two years</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>拉丰特的 Coatue Management 连续两个季度出售 Nvidia 股票</h2>
</div><p>While Coatue Management's billionaire chief isn't exactly bearish on Nvidia -- it still represents a sizable holding for his fund -- he has sold shares of Wall Street's favorite AI stock for eight consecutive quarters. Taking into account Nvidia's historic 10-for-1 forward split in June 2024, here's the progression of Coatue's quarter-end share count in Nvidia since March 31, 2023:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然 Coatue Management 的亿万富翁首席并不完全看空 Nvidia——它仍然是他基金中的一项可观持仓——但他已经连续八个季度出售华尔街最受欢迎的人工智能股票。考虑到 Nvidia 在 2024 年 6 月的历史性 10 比 1 前分拆，以下是自 2023 年 3 月 31 日以来 Coatue 在 Nvidia 的季度末持股变化：</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Q1 2023</strong>: 49,802,020 shares of Nvidia</li>
<li><strong>Q2 2023</strong>: 46,449,700 shares</li>
<li><strong>Q3 2023</strong>: 45,410,400 shares</li>
<li><strong>Q4 2023</strong>: 43,222,010 shares</li>
<li><strong>Q1 2024</strong>: 13,851,410 shares</li>
<li><strong>Q2 2024</strong>: 13,754,447 shares</li>
<li><strong>Q3 2024</strong>: 10,138,161 shares</li>
<li><strong>Q4 2024</strong>: 10,006,488 shares</li>
<li><strong>Q1 2025</strong>: 8,545,835 shares</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>2023 年第一季度</strong>：49,802,020 股 Nvidia</li>
<li><strong>2023 年第二季度</strong>：46,449,700 股</li>
<li><strong>2023 年第三季度</strong>：45,410,400 股</li>
<li><strong>2023 年第四季度</strong>：43,222,010 股</li>
<li><strong>2024 年第一季度</strong>：13,851,410 股</li>
<li><strong>2024 年第二季度</strong>：13,754,447 股</li>
<li><strong>2024 年第三季度</strong>：10,138,161 股</li>
<li><strong>2024 年第四季度</strong>：10,006,488 股</li>
<li><strong>2025 年第一季度</strong>：8,545,835 股</li>
</ul>
</div><p>To reiterate, more than 8.5 million shares held isn't chump change -- but there's a reason (or four) why Laffont has sold 83% of his fund's stake in the company over the last two years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重申一下，持有超过 850 万股并不是小数目——但拉丰特在过去两年中出售其基金在该公司的 83% 股份是有原因的（或四个原因）。</p>
</div><p>Profit-taking is absolutely a possibility for Coatue Management's boss, as well as other billionaires who've reduced their exposure to Nvidia. We've never witnessed a megacap stock gain $3 trillion in market cap so quickly before, so ringing the register might be viewed as a wise move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>获利了结绝对是 Coatue Management 的老板以及其他减少对 Nvidia 敞口的亿万富翁们的一个可能原因。我们从未见过一家巨头公司如此迅速地增加 3 万亿美元的市值，因此兑现利润可能被视为明智之举。</p>
</div><p>However, there's also the logical expectation that competition is going to pick up in a big way for Nvidia in the coming years. Even though it's in no danger of losing its spot atop the compute leaderboard, there are more variables to consider than just how fast an AI-GPU can be.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，还有一个合理的预期，即未来几年 Nvidia 的竞争将会大幅加剧。尽管它在计算排行榜上没有失去领先地位的危险，但需要考虑的变量比单纯的 AI-GPU 速度要多。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2d6b75b19d03b79645e1d61322fae767.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2d6b75b19d03b79645e1d61322fae767.png"/></p>
<p>Competitive pressures appear to be chipping away at Nvidia's high gross margin. NVDA Gross Profit Margin (Quarterly) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>竞争压力似乎正在侵蚀英伟达的高毛利率。根据 YCharts 的数据，英伟达的毛利率（季度）。</p>
</div><p>For instance, many of Nvidia's top customers by net sales (i.e., most members of the &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34;) are internally developing AI chips to use in their data centers. Though this hardware is no threat to Nvidia on an external basis, these internally developed chips are considerably cheaper than Hopper and Blackwell, as well as more readily accessible. The use of internal hardware means less prospective real estate for Nvidia to win in the future. It's also a drag on the AI-GPU scarcity that's powered its gross margin higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，许多英伟达的主要客户（即 “七大巨头” 中的大多数）正在内部开发用于其数据中心的 AI 芯片。尽管这些硬件在外部并不威胁英伟达，但这些内部开发的芯片比 Hopper 和 Blackwell 便宜得多，并且更容易获得。使用内部硬件意味着英伟达未来赢得的潜在市场空间减少。这也对推动其毛利率上升的 AI-GPU 稀缺性造成了拖累。</p>
</div><p>Laffont might also be rightly concerned about President Donald Trump's tariff and trade policy. For three years, beginning under former President Joe Biden and continuing under Trump, exports of high-powered AI chips and related equipment to China have been restricted. With President Trump emphasizing national security and the need for AI innovation to remain within domestic borders, Nvidia could lose out on billions of dollars in quarterly sales from one of its largest individual markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>拉丰特可能也对唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税和贸易政策感到担忧。在前总统乔·拜登任内开始的三年里，特朗普继续限制向中国出口高性能 AI 芯片及相关设备。特朗普总统强调国家安全以及 AI 创新需要保持在国内边界内，英伟达可能会失去来自其最大单一市场之一的数十亿美元季度销售额。</p>
</div><p>Finally, billionaire Philippe Laffont might recognize the gravity of historical precedent when it comes to the AI revolution. For more than three decades, every game-changing technology or innovation has worked its way through a bubble that eventually burst. While businesses are aggressively investing in AI infrastructure, most aren't generating a positive return on their AI investments, nor are they optimizing their AI solutions. It's going to take time for artificial intelligence to mature as a technology, which means there's a strong likelihood of an AI bubble forming, bursting, and dragging Nvidia's share price considerably lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，亿万富翁菲利普·拉丰特可能意识到 AI 革命的历史先例的重要性。在过去三十多年中，每一项颠覆性技术或创新都经历了一个最终破裂的泡沫。尽管企业正在积极投资于 AI 基础设施，但大多数企业并未从其 AI 投资中获得正回报，也未优化其 AI 解决方案。人工智能作为一项技术成熟需要时间，这意味着形成、破裂并大幅拖低英伟达股价的 AI 泡沫的可能性很大。</p>
</div><p>Though Nvidia has the tools to be a long-term winner once AI matures, it has all the hallmarks of a company priced for perfection in an imperfect early stage trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管英伟达拥有在 AI 成熟后成为长期赢家的工具，但它具备了在不完美的早期趋势中被定价为完美公司的所有特征。</p>
</div>

Dueling Billionaires: Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Nvidia Is Israel Englander's Largest Stock Holding, but Philippe Laffont Has Sold Shares for 8 Consecutive Quarters

- 自 2022 年底以来，人工智能在华尔街备受关注。  
- 根据 PwC 的预测，到 2030 年，全球 GDP 可增加 15.7 万亿美元。  
- 投资者对 Nvidia 的未来回报存在分歧，部分人持续减持其股票。  

亿万富翁对决：人工智能（AI）股票英伟达是以色列·英格兰德最大的持股，而菲利普·拉丰特则连续 8 个季度出售其股票