<p>马来西亚债券在 5 月份录得自 2014 年以来最大的外资流入</p><p>资金管理者对亚洲固定收益的兴趣日益增加</p><p>投资者被降息前景和货币升值所吸引</p><p>作者：Johann M Cherian, Gaurav Dogra 和 Rae Wee</p><p>新加坡/班加罗尔，6 月 18 日（路透社）- 逃离美国的债券投资者正在稳定且盈利的亚洲债务市场中寻找避风港，马来西亚成为外资的主要目的地。</p><p>从印度尼西亚到印度的政府债券外资持有量激增，成为传统上由国内投资者主导的市场的助力。</p><p>“我们正处于一个非常适合亚洲投资的环境，” Invesco 亚太区全球市场策略师 David Chao 表示。“亚洲和新兴市场具备超越的条件。”</p><p>最大的吸引力在于货币宽松和货币升值的结合，这是四年来首次出现，这一切都是由于美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的政策和美元走弱所致。</p><p>马来西亚债券上个月录得自 2014 年以来最大的月度外资流入，约为 31.5 亿美元。印度和印度尼西亚也获得了显著的资金流入。</p><p>在整个亚洲，低通胀和政策利率处于高位，与美国、欧洲或日本形成鲜明对比，后者的财政过度支出削弱了长期债务的价值。</p><p>温和的增长和预期的降息进一步增强了锁定高峰利率的吸引力，随着收益率下降，债券的资本增值潜力也随之增加。美元走弱也为投资者提供了从货币升值中获利的空间。</p><p>“当美国利率下降、美元走弱时，新兴市场资产从根本上会表现良好，” 美国银行东南亚全球市场负责人 Shah Jahan Abu Thahir 表示。</p><p>“过去几年，情况正好相反……所以现在，显然有一些潜在的兴趣正在回归。”</p><h3 id="xca0ldvhw">债券魅力</h3><p>来自地区监管机构和债券市场协会的数据表明，今年迄今为止，外国投资者购买了价值 340 亿美元的亚洲债务证券——这是自 2016 年以来前五个月中最大的金额。</p><p>分析师表示，这只是流入这些被低估市场的开始，只要这一地区的经济和货币环境保持隔离且比发达市场更稳定，这种趋势可能会持续。</p><p>“我们在大大小小的新兴市场国家中看到这种固定收益的兴趣——泰国、菲律宾、印度尼西亚和印度，” 花旗集团亚南市场负责人 Sue Lee 表示。</p><p>她表示，印度由于一系列降息而成为客户较为活跃的市场之一。</p><p>投资者正在为预期的降息做好准备，锁定收益率，期待随着利率下降债券价格上涨。</p><p>马来西亚的市场在降息前景上仍然存在分歧，相较于泰国，马来西亚具有优势，投资者认为泰国的周期几乎结束。</p><p>泰国在 5 月份流出约 5360 万美元，投资者避开了该市场，该市场的回报率在该地区最低，并受到特朗普贸易关税的重创。中央银行暗示其降息空间有限，而政府则表示希望货币贬值。一年期债券收益率（TH1YT=RR）低于 1.75% 的政策利率。</p><p>印尼政府债券（IndoGBs）提供有吸引力的收益率，10 年期 IndoGBs（ID10YT=RR）比美国国债高出两个百分点的溢价。然而，政府支出和政治不确定性的问题抑制了投资者的热情。</p><p>投资者表示，马来西亚债券提供更高的价值，尽管增长放缓，但其中央银行尚未开始降息，且马来西亚林吉特相对强劲（MYR=）。</p><p>Abu Tahir 表示，印尼的债券被视为昂贵，而泰国的降息已被市场定价，且已经处于合理价值。</p><p>“这关乎预期和市场定价，” 他说，预测马来西亚将在 7 月降息，尽管市场意见分歧较大。</p><p>“所以这就是价值所在，因为如果每个人都在期待降息，这已经被定价了。”</p><p>亚洲债券市场长期以来流动性不足一直是投资者的一个制约因素，快速的外资流动可能引发价格波动。</p><p>上个月，资本涌入香港导致其通常稳定的货币出现剧烈波动。</p><p>但分析师表示，考虑到温和的通胀环境和低外资持有量，担忧较少。</p><p>“在过去五年中，区域内的投资组合流入几乎为零，因此实际上看到更多资金流入该地区并不是坏事，” 美国银行策略师 Claudio Piron 表示。</p><p>“在某种程度上，如果以一种有序、自然的方式进行，这可能并不是坏事。这是一个好问题。”</p><p>新兴市场债券的投资者流入在经历长期干旱后开始回升</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/36f28accb7c3d44aca4a649bd47b7413?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="970" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/36f28accb7c3d44aca4a649bd47b7413"/></figure><p>新兴市场本币债务以美元计的回报</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/e0c8e4ba55cb8b23ab3d7912f9befcdf?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="766" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/e0c8e4ba55cb8b23ab3d7912f9befcdf"/></figure><p>每月外资投资流入：亚洲债券</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/e8b25b8360d8e483c922ef8a0df6166c?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1600" height="908" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/e8b25b8360d8e483c922ef8a0df6166c"/></figure>

<p>马来西亚在政府债券方面录得自 2014 年以来最大的外资流入，5 月份吸引了约 31.5 亿美元。这一激增是债券投资者将关注点转向稳定的亚洲市场的更广泛趋势的一部分，背后是对降息和货币升值的预期。分析师指出，亚洲有利的货币环境，加上美元走弱，使新兴市场有潜在的超越表现。印度和印度尼西亚等国也在经历显著的资金流入，表明对亚洲固定收益投资的兴趣重新回升</p>

<p>Malaysian bonds record largest foreign inflows since 2014 in May</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马来西亚债券在 5 月份录得自 2014 年以来最大的外资流入</p>
</div><p>Money managers see increasing interest in Asian fixed income</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>资金管理者对亚洲固定收益的兴趣日益增加</p>
</div><p>Investors attracted by prospect of rate cuts, currency appreciation</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者被降息前景和货币升值所吸引</p>
</div><p>By Johann M Cherian, Gaurav Dogra and Rae Wee</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Johann M Cherian, Gaurav Dogra 和 Rae Wee</p>
</div><p>SINGAPORE/BENGALURU, June 18 (Reuters) - Bond investors fleeing the United States are finding a haven in stable and lucrative Asian debt markets, with Malaysia leading the pack as the destination for foreign money.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新加坡/班加罗尔，6 月 18 日（路透社）- 逃离美国的债券投资者正在稳定且盈利的亚洲债务市场中寻找避风港，马来西亚成为外资的主要目的地。</p>
</div><p>Foreign ownership of government bonds from Indonesia to India is soaring, becoming a tailwind for markets that have traditionally been dominated by domestic players.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从印度尼西亚到印度的政府债券外资持有量激增，成为传统上由国内投资者主导的市场的助力。</p>
</div><p>“We’re in a very good environment for Asian investments,” said David Chao, global market strategist for Asia Pacific at Invesco. “The ingredients are in place for Asia, for emerging markets to outperform.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们正处于一个非常适合亚洲投资的环境，” Invesco 亚太区全球市场策略师 David Chao 表示。“亚洲和新兴市场具备超越的条件。”</p>
</div><p>The biggest appeal is the combination of monetary easing and currency appreciation they are offering for the first time in four years, precipitated by U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies and a weakening dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最大的吸引力在于货币宽松和货币升值的结合，这是四年来首次出现，这一切都是由于美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的政策和美元走弱所致。</p>
</div><p>Malaysian bonds recorded their biggest monthly foreign inflows since 2014 last month, around $3.15 billion. India and Indonesia also got significant inflows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马来西亚债券上个月录得自 2014 年以来最大的月度外资流入，约为 31.5 亿美元。印度和印度尼西亚也获得了显著的资金流入。</p>
</div><p>Across Asia, low inflation and policy rates at their peak contrast with the United States, Europe or Japan, where fiscal profligacy has undermined the value of long-term debt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在整个亚洲，低通胀和政策利率处于高位，与美国、欧洲或日本形成鲜明对比，后者的财政过度支出削弱了长期债务的价值。</p>
</div><p>Subdued growth and expected rate cuts further enhance the appeal of locking in peak rates, with the potential for capital appreciation on bonds as yields decline. A weaker dollar also gives investors scope to profit from currency appreciation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>温和的增长和预期的降息进一步增强了锁定高峰利率的吸引力，随着收益率下降，债券的资本增值潜力也随之增加。美元走弱也为投资者提供了从货币升值中获利的空间。</p>
</div><p>“Emerging market assets fundamentally will do well when U.S. rates are dropping, and U.S. dollar is weakening,” said Shah Jahan Abu Thahir, head of global markets for Southeast Asia at Bank of America.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“当美国利率下降、美元走弱时，新兴市场资产从根本上会表现良好，” 美国银行东南亚全球市场负责人 Shah Jahan Abu Thahir 表示。</p>
</div><p>“The last few years, it was the reverse…so now, anecdotally, there’s definitely some interest potentially coming back.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“过去几年，情况正好相反……所以现在，显然有一些潜在的兴趣正在回归。”</p>
</div><h3>BOND ALLURE</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>债券魅力</h3>
</div><p>Data from regional regulatory authorities and bond market associations showed foreign investors bought $34 billion worth of Asian debt securities so far this year - the largest amount in the first five months of a year since at least 2016.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来自地区监管机构和债券市场协会的数据表明，今年迄今为止，外国投资者购买了价值 340 亿美元的亚洲债务证券——这是自 2016 年以来前五个月中最大的金额。</p>
</div><p>That’s just the beginning of flows into these under-owned markets, analysts said, and likely to continue so long as economies and monetary settings in this part of the world remain insulated and more stable than developed markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师表示，这只是流入这些被低估市场的开始，只要这一地区的经济和货币环境保持隔离且比发达市场更稳定，这种趋势可能会持续。</p>
</div><p>“We’re seeing this fixed income interest across the board in the bigger and small EM countries - Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia and India,” Sue Lee, head of markets for Asia South at Citi Group, said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们在大大小小的新兴市场国家中看到这种固定收益的兴趣——泰国、菲律宾、印度尼西亚和印度，” 花旗集团亚南市场负责人 Sue Lee 表示。</p>
</div><p>India has been one of the more active markets for clients, due to the string of rate cuts, she said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>她表示，印度由于一系列降息而成为客户较为活跃的市场之一。</p>
</div><p>Investors are positioning themselves ahead of expected rate cuts, locking in yields with the anticipation of bond prices rising as rates decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者正在为预期的降息做好准备，锁定收益率，期待随着利率下降债券价格上涨。</p>
</div><p>Malaysia, where the market remains divided on rate-cut prospects, has an edge over Thailand, where investors reckon the cycle is almost over.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马来西亚的市场在降息前景上仍然存在分歧，相较于泰国，马来西亚具有优势，投资者认为泰国的周期几乎结束。</p>
</div><p>Thailand had outflows of about $53.6 million in May, as investors shunned a market with one of the lowest returns in the region and hit hardest by Trump’s trade tariffs. The central bank has hinted it has limited room to cut rates further, while the government has said it wants a weaker currency. One-year bond yields (TH1YT=RR) are below the 1.75% policy rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>泰国在 5 月份流出约 5360 万美元，投资者避开了该市场，该市场的回报率在该地区最低，并受到特朗普贸易关税的重创。中央银行暗示其降息空间有限，而政府则表示希望货币贬值。一年期债券收益率（TH1YT=RR）低于 1.75% 的政策利率。</p>
</div><p>Indonesian government bonds (IndoGBs) offer attractive yields, with a two-percentage point premium over U.S. Treasuries on 10-year IndoGBs (ID10YT=RR) . However, concerns over government spending and political uncertainty have tempered investor enthusiasm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印尼政府债券（IndoGBs）提供有吸引力的收益率，10 年期 IndoGBs（ID10YT=RR）比美国国债高出两个百分点的溢价。然而，政府支出和政治不确定性的问题抑制了投资者的热情。</p>
</div><p>Investors say Malaysian bonds offer more value, with its central bank yet to start cutting rates despite weaker growth, and a relatively robust ringgit (MYR=) .</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者表示，马来西亚债券提供更高的价值，尽管增长放缓，但其中央银行尚未开始降息，且马来西亚林吉特相对强劲（MYR=）。</p>
</div><p>Abu Tahir said bonds in Indonesia are regarded as expensive while Thailand has rate cuts priced in and is already at fair value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Abu Tahir 表示，印尼的债券被视为昂贵，而泰国的降息已被市场定价，且已经处于合理价值。</p>
</div><p>“It’s about what’s the expectation and what’s the market pricing,” he said, predicting Malaysia will cut rates in July, though the market is more divided.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这关乎预期和市场定价，” 他说，预测马来西亚将在 7 月降息，尽管市场意见分歧较大。</p>
</div><p>“So that’s like where the value is because if everybody is expecting a cut, it’s already been priced in,” he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“所以这就是价值所在，因为如果每个人都在期待降息，这已经被定价了。”</p>
</div><p>The lack of liquidity in Asian bond markets has long been a constraint for investors, with rapid foreign capital flows capable of triggering price volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚洲债券市场长期以来流动性不足一直是投资者的一个制约因素，快速的外资流动可能引发价格波动。</p>
</div><p>Last month, a rush of capital into Hong Kong caused a spike in its usually stable currency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上个月，资本涌入香港导致其通常稳定的货币出现剧烈波动。</p>
</div><p>But analysts say there is less cause for concern, given a benign inflation environment and low foreign ownership.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但分析师表示，考虑到温和的通胀环境和低外资持有量，担忧较少。</p>
</div><p>“For the past five years, it’s been tumbleweed in terms of portfolio inflows into the region, so actually it wouldn’t be bad to see more inflows back into the region,” said Claudio Piron, a strategist at Bank of America.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在过去五年中，区域内的投资组合流入几乎为零，因此实际上看到更多资金流入该地区并不是坏事，” 美国银行策略师 Claudio Piron 表示。</p>
</div><p>“In a way, if it’s done in a calibrated, natural way, it may not be bad. A good problem to have.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在某种程度上，如果以一种有序、自然的方式进行，这可能并不是坏事。这是一个好问题。”</p>
</div><p>Investor flows into emerging market bonds pick up after long drought</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新兴市场债券的投资者流入在经历长期干旱后开始回升</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/3TkmNYq" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/3TkmNYq"/></p>
<p>EM local currency debt returns in dollars</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新兴市场本币债务以美元计的回报</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/3HFx3bh" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/3HFx3bh"/></p>
<p>Monthly foreign investment flows: Asian bonds</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每月外资投资流入：亚洲债券</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3LnM7dv" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/3LnM7dv"/></p>

ANALYSIS-Malaysia scores record flows as bond investors favour Asia

- 马来西亚债券在 5 月录得自 2014 年以来最大外资流入，约 31.5 亿美元。  
- 外国投资者对亚洲固定收益的兴趣上升，因预期降息和货币升值。  
- 今年前五个月，外资购买亚洲债务证券达 340 亿美元，为 2016 年以来最高。  

分析 - 马来西亚创下资金流入纪录，债券投资者更倾向于亚洲市场