<p>在我 18 岁生日不久后，我开设了我的第一个经纪账户，选择了 E*TRADE。再过几个月，我将庆祝我作为投资者的第 27 个年头，以及我总共的第 28 个年头，回顾股票和市场的运作。</p>
<p>我可以毫无疑问地说，总有新的东西可以学习，总有一只股票可以让人感到意外。</p>
<p>例如，我对人工智能（AI）革命的代表，<strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 0.87%），一直持怀疑态度。自 2023 年开始，Nvidia 不仅打破了反对者的评论，还增加了超过 3 万亿美元的市值。Nvidia 的 Hopper（H100）和 Blackwell 图形处理单元（GPU）无疑是运营 AI 加速数据中心的企业的首选。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjE4NDcvcmVkLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtZmluYW5jaWFsLWRhdGEtaW52ZXN0LWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjE4NDcvcmVkLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtZmluYW5jaWFsLWRhdGEtaW52ZXN0LWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>但我也见过像 Nvidia 这样的故事在之前上演。尽管围绕颠覆性创新的炒作似乎难以抵挡，但有确凿的历史和统计原因表明，Nvidia 确实是有缺陷的。</p>
<p>接下来是来自一位在 27 年中见证了许多下一个大趋势的投资者的 10 个理由，建议放弃 Nvidia 股票。</p>
<h2>1. 下一个大趋势往往伴随着早期泡沫</h2>
<p>历史提供了一个最有说服力的理由，让人远离 Nvidia 股票。自 1990 年代中期互联网出现以来，每一次重大的技术飞跃都导致了一个早期泡沫的形成并最终破裂。虽然无法提前知道这个泡沫何时会破裂，但下一个大趋势和泡沫已经伴随了超过三十年。</p>
<p>简单的事实是，大多数企业尚未优化其 AI 解决方案，也未能从其 AI 投资中获利，这强烈表明投资者再次高估了颠覆性创新的采用率和早期效用。这对 Nvidia 来说是个坏消息。</p>
<h2>2. 外部竞争者正在加大生产</h2>
<p>尽管 Nvidia 在当前部署于 AI 加速数据中心的 GPU 中占据近乎垄断的份额，但这种情况不太可能长期维持。Nvidia 已经售出了 2025 年能销售的所有 GPU，这意味着对硬件需求旺盛的企业将寻求其他途径以获得竞争优势。</p>
<p>像 <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>（AMD -0.20%）这样的外部供应商正在迅速扩大生产，并推出新的 AI 加速芯片。AMD 的 Instinct 系列芯片显著便宜且更易获得，这表明它应该能够轻松削弱 Nvidia 在数据中心市场的领先地位。</p>
<h2>3. 内部竞争将占用宝贵的数据中心空间</h2>
<p>然而，可以说内部竞争对 Nvidia 未来的威胁更大，也是放弃其股票的主要原因之一。</p>
<p>Nvidia 的一些主要客户正在内部开发 AI-GPU 和解决方案，以在其数据中心中使用。虽然这些芯片不会在外部与 Hopper 和 Blackwell 竞争，但它们将占用 Nvidia 无法赢得的宝贵数据中心空间。此外，Nvidia 主要客户内部开发的硬件比 Hopper 和 Blackwell 便宜得多。</p>
<h2>4. 首席执行官黄仁勋的创新周期可能会对公司造成干扰</h2>
<p>通常，创新对科技公司至关重要。Nvidia 首席执行官黄仁勋不遗余力地确保公司保持计算优势。黄仁勋试图每年推出一款新的先进 AI-GPU，Blackwell Ultra 将在今年晚些时候首次亮相，随后是 2026 年和 2027 年的 Vera Rubin 和 Vera Rubin Ultra。</p>
<p>令人担忧的是，黄仁勋加速的创新周期可能会迅速贬值前一代芯片，并迫使企业转向成本更低的选择。每年推出一款新芯片也可能会让关键客户感到不满，从而选择推迟升级周期。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0202b62f37dd3b75f16dbb11f9131b6f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0202b62f37dd3b75f16dbb11f9131b6f.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 毛利率（季度）数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<h2>5. 其毛利率已经在下降</h2>
<p>Nvidia 在 AI 领域最大的竞争优势是其能够利用 AI-GPU 的稀缺性。只要 GPU 需求超过供应，Nvidia 就可以显著提高价格，增加生产，并从中受益。</p>
<p>但我们已经观察到 AI-GPU 稀缺性正在减弱的迹象。尽管全球领先的芯片制造公司 <strong>台湾半导体制造</strong> 仍无法满足需求，尽管其正在迅速扩大其芯片在基板上的生产能力，Nvidia 已经连续四个季度报告了公认会计原则（GAAP）毛利率的下降。虽然公司预计当前季度 GAAP 毛利率会有所反弹，但这四个季度的下降表明外部和内部竞争正在减少 Nvidia 所珍视的 AI-GPU 稀缺性。</p>
<h2>6. 出口限制正在扼杀一个关键市场</h2>
<p>另一个考虑放弃 Nvidia 股票的原因是对中国的出口限制持续存在，而中国是该公司最重要的单一市场之一，每季度产生数十亿美元的销售额。</p>
<p>对高性能 AI 芯片的出口限制之所以独特，是因为这是乔·拜登政府和唐纳德·特朗普政府少数几项意见一致的政策之一。在过去三年中，联邦政府一直阻碍 Nvidia 顶级 AI 硬件向世界第二大经济体的出口。考虑到特朗普总统专注于国家安全和使美国成为人工智能领导者，这些限制似乎在短期内不太可能放松。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjE4NDcvdGFyaWZmcy1lY29ub215LXRyYWRlLXdhci11cy1jaGluYS1vbmUtaHVuZHJlZC1kb2xsYXItY2FzaC10YXgtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjE4NDcvdGFyaWZmcy1lY29ub215LXRyYWRlLXdhci11cy1jaGluYS1vbmUtaHVuZHJlZC1kb2xsYXItY2FzaC10YXgtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>7. 关税对利润的威胁是次要的</h2>
<p>除了英伟达的关键产品被限制出口到中国外，特朗普总统的关税和贸易政策还威胁到公司的扩张计划。</p>
<p>实施全面的全球关税，以及对与美国历史上存在不利贸易失衡的特定国家提高 “对等关税率”，有可能加剧与关键合作伙伴的贸易关系，并可能引发对某些商品的反美情绪。此外，可能会对半导体和/或人工智能供应链的各个方面征收关税，这最终可能削弱英伟达的毛利率。</p>
<h2>8. 内部人士在 54 个月内没有进行购买</h2>
<p>如果你需要另一个明确的理由来放弃英伟达的股票，不妨看看公司的内部交易活动，这些活动需要向证券交易委员会备案。</p>
<p>在 2020 年 12 月，首席财务官科莱特·克雷斯的两个儿子各购买了 100 股英伟达的股票。这次购买发生在 54 个月前，是最后一次有高管、董事会成员或直系亲属购买股票。相比之下，自克雷斯在 2020 年提交的 Form 4 以来，内部人士进行了 172 次独立的股票出售。</p>
<p>虽然有很多理由可以出售股票（并非所有理由都令人担忧），但购买股票的理由只有一个：你相信股票会升值。如果英伟达的内部人士不在买入，你为什么要买呢？</p>
<h2>9. 亿万富翁持续出售英伟达股票</h2>
<p>除了亿万富翁查斯·科尔曼（Chase Coleman）外，华尔街最聪明的亿万富翁投资经理在过去一年中一直在持续出售英伟达股票。这包括杜肯家族办公室的斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒和孤松资本的斯蒂芬·曼德尔，他们都完全退出了曾经相当可观的在这家人工智能巨头的持股。</p>
<p>尽管亿万富翁投资者完全有可能犯错，但值得注意的是，绝大多数大型对冲基金已经兑现了他们的筹码或大幅减少了他们的持仓，正如阿帕卢萨的戴维·泰珀、科图管理的菲利普·拉丰和千禧管理的以色列·英格兰德所示。上述一些因素可能在他们决定出售或减少持仓时发挥了作用。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1ed36e9eefb920771bcf1979a5951eea.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1ed36e9eefb920771bcf1979a5951eea.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PS 比率数据来自 YCharts。PS 比率=市销率。</p>
<h2>10. 英伟达估值的一个关键方面仍然没有意义</h2>
<p>最后但同样重要的是，英伟达的估值并没有它所声称的那么好。尽管其前瞻性市盈率为 25 并不算过高，但其过去 12 个月（TTM）的市销率为 24，相对于其他在下一波趋势中处于领先地位的巨头股票来说，仍然处于高位。</p>
<p>例如，互联网发展的关键参与者，如 <strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>微软</strong> 和 <strong>思科系统</strong>，在互联网泡沫破裂之前，其 TTM 市销率均达到了 30 到 43 的高点。或许并非巧合，英伟达的 TTM 市销率在去年夏天达到了 42。然而，基于历史数据，24 的市销率仍然过高，难以持续。</p>

英伟达

<p>一位经验丰富的投资者分享了避免投资英伟达股票的 10 个理由，提到了科技泡沫的历史趋势、来自 AMD 等公司的竞争加剧，以及客户开发自有 AI 芯片带来的内部竞争。还有一些担忧，包括首席执行官黄仁勋的快速创新周期可能会对公司造成干扰、毛利率下降，以及出口限制影响关键市场。投资者警告称，尽管英伟达在 AI 领域表现出色，但市场格局正在变化，使其成为一项风险投资</p>

<p>Not long after my 18th birthday, I opened my first brokerage account with E*TRADE. In just a few months, I'll be celebrating my 27th year as an investor, and my 28th, in total, following what makes stocks and the market tick.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我 18 岁生日不久后，我开设了我的第一个经纪账户，选择了 E*TRADE。再过几个月，我将庆祝我作为投资者的第 27 个年头，以及我总共的第 28 个年头，回顾股票和市场的运作。</p>
</div><p>I can say, without question, there's always something new to learn and a stock that can prove a person wrong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我可以毫无疑问地说，总有新的东西可以学习，总有一只股票可以让人感到意外。</p>
</div><p>For example, I've been decisively skeptical of the face of the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution, <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 0.87%). All Nvidia has done is blow naysayer commentary out of the water and tack on more than $3 trillion in market cap since 2023 began. Nvidia's Hopper (H100) and Blackwell graphics processing units (GPUs) have been the undeniable top options by businesses operating AI-accelerated data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，我对人工智能（AI）革命的代表，<strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 0.87%），一直持怀疑态度。自 2023 年开始，Nvidia 不仅打破了反对者的评论，还增加了超过 3 万亿美元的市值。Nvidia 的 Hopper（H100）和 Blackwell 图形处理单元（GPU）无疑是运营 AI 加速数据中心的企业的首选。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjE4NDcvcmVkLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtZmluYW5jaWFsLWRhdGEtaW52ZXN0LWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F821847%2Fred-dice-buy-sell-stock-chart-financial-data-invest-billionaire-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>But I've also seen stories like Nvidia's play out before. While the hype surrounding game-changing innovations can appear insurmountable, there are tangible, historical, and statistical reasons to believe Nvidia is, indeed, fallible.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但我也见过像 Nvidia 这样的故事在之前上演。尽管围绕颠覆性创新的炒作似乎难以抵挡，但有确凿的历史和统计原因表明，Nvidia 确实是有缺陷的。</p>
</div><p>What follows are 10 reasons to pass on Nvidia stock from an investor who's seen a lot of next-big-thing trends come and go over 27 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>接下来是来自一位在 27 年中见证了许多下一个大趋势的投资者的 10 个理由，建议放弃 Nvidia 股票。</p>
</div><h2>1. Next-big-thing trends go hand in hand with early stage bubbles</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 下一个大趋势往往伴随着早期泡沫</h2>
</div><p>History offers one the most compelling reasons to keep your distance from Nvidia stock. Since (and including) the advent of the internet in the mid-1990s, every major technological leap forward has resulted in an early stage bubble <em>eventually</em> (keyword!) forming and bursting. Although it's impossible to know when this bubble will burst ahead of time, next-big-thing trends and bubbles have gone hand-in-hand for more than three decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史提供了一个最有说服力的理由，让人远离 Nvidia 股票。自 1990 年代中期互联网出现以来，每一次重大的技术飞跃都导致了一个早期泡沫的形成并最终破裂。虽然无法提前知道这个泡沫何时会破裂，但下一个大趋势和泡沫已经伴随了超过三十年。</p>
</div><p>The simple fact that most businesses haven't yet optimized their AI solutions and aren't generating a profit on their AI investments strongly suggests that investors have, once again, overestimated the adoption rate and early innings utility of a game-changing innovation. That's bad news for Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>简单的事实是，大多数企业尚未优化其 AI 解决方案，也未能从其 AI 投资中获利，这强烈表明投资者再次高估了颠覆性创新的采用率和早期效用。这对 Nvidia 来说是个坏消息。</p>
</div><h2>2. External competitors are ramping up production</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 外部竞争者正在加大生产</h2>
</div><p>Though Nvidia accounts for a near-monopoly like share of the GPUs currently deployed in AI accelerated data centers, it's unlikely to stay that way for long. Nvidia's has sold all the GPUs it can for 2025, which means hardware-hungry businesses will look elsewhere to gain an edge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 Nvidia 在当前部署于 AI 加速数据中心的 GPU 中占据近乎垄断的份额，但这种情况不太可能长期维持。Nvidia 已经售出了 2025 年能销售的所有 GPU，这意味着对硬件需求旺盛的企业将寻求其他途径以获得竞争优势。</p>
</div><p>External providers like <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>(AMD -0.20%) are rapidly ramping up production and introducing new AI-accelerating chips. AMD's Instinct series chips are notably cheaper and more readily accessible than Nvidia's hardware, which suggests it should have no issue chipping away (pun fully intended) at Nvidia's leading data center market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>像 <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>（AMD -0.20%）这样的外部供应商正在迅速扩大生产，并推出新的 AI 加速芯片。AMD 的 Instinct 系列芯片显著便宜且更易获得，这表明它应该能够轻松削弱 Nvidia 在数据中心市场的领先地位。</p>
</div><h2>3. Internal competition will remove valuable data center real estate</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 内部竞争将占用宝贵的数据中心空间</h2>
</div><p>However, the argument can be made that internal competition is an even bigger threat to Nvidia's future -- and one of the top reasons to pass on its stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，可以说内部竞争对 Nvidia 未来的威胁更大，也是放弃其股票的主要原因之一。</p>
</div><p>Many of Nvidia's top clients by net sales are internally developing AI-GPUs and solutions to use in their data centers. While these chips won't be competing against Hopper and Blackwell externally, they will be taking up valuable data center real estate that Nvidia won't be able to win. Further, the internally developed hardware by Nvidia's leading customers is considerably cheaper than Hopper and Blackwell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 的一些主要客户正在内部开发 AI-GPU 和解决方案，以在其数据中心中使用。虽然这些芯片不会在外部与 Hopper 和 Blackwell 竞争，但它们将占用 Nvidia 无法赢得的宝贵数据中心空间。此外，Nvidia 主要客户内部开发的硬件比 Hopper 和 Blackwell 便宜得多。</p>
</div><h2>4. CEO Jensen Huang's innovation cycle could be disruptive to his own company</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>4. 首席执行官黄仁勋的创新周期可能会对公司造成干扰</h2>
</div><p>Normally, innovation is everything for tech companies. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is sparing no expense to ensure that his company maintains its compute advantages. Huang is attempting to bring a new advanced AI-GPU to market annually, with Blackwell Ultra debuting later this year, followed by Vera Rubin and Vera Rubin Ultra in 2026 and 2027, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通常，创新对科技公司至关重要。Nvidia 首席执行官黄仁勋不遗余力地确保公司保持计算优势。黄仁勋试图每年推出一款新的先进 AI-GPU，Blackwell Ultra 将在今年晚些时候首次亮相，随后是 2026 年和 2027 年的 Vera Rubin 和 Vera Rubin Ultra。</p>
</div><p>The concern is that Huang's accelerated innovation cycle will quickly depreciate prior-generation chips and coerce businesses to trade down to less-costly options. Bringing a new chip to market annually might also irritate key customers, which may choose to delay their upgrade cycles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>令人担忧的是，黄仁勋加速的创新周期可能会迅速贬值前一代芯片，并迫使企业转向成本更低的选择。每年推出一款新芯片也可能会让关键客户感到不满，从而选择推迟升级周期。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0202b62f37dd3b75f16dbb11f9131b6f.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0202b62f37dd3b75f16dbb11f9131b6f.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA Gross Profit Margin (Quarterly) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 毛利率（季度）数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>5. Its gross margin is already eroding</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>5. 其毛利率已经在下降</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia's biggest competitive edge in AI has been its ability to exploit AI-GPU scarcity. As long as GPU demand overwhelms supply, Nvidia can notably increase its prices, boost its production, and benefit from both ends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 在 AI 领域最大的竞争优势是其能够利用 AI-GPU 的稀缺性。只要 GPU 需求超过供应，Nvidia 就可以显著提高价格，增加生产，并从中受益。</p>
</div><p>But we're already observing evidence that AI-GPU scarcity is waning. Although world-leading chip fabrication company <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong> still can't satiate demand despite rapidly expanding its chip-on-wafer-on-substrate capacity, Nvidia has delivered four consecutive quarters of declining generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) gross margin. While the company expects a modest rebound in GAAP gross margin for the current quarter, this four-quarter decline points to external and internal competition reducing the AI-GPU scarcity Nvidia holds so dear.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但我们已经观察到 AI-GPU 稀缺性正在减弱的迹象。尽管全球领先的芯片制造公司 <strong>台湾半导体制造</strong> 仍无法满足需求，尽管其正在迅速扩大其芯片在基板上的生产能力，Nvidia 已经连续四个季度报告了公认会计原则（GAAP）毛利率的下降。虽然公司预计当前季度 GAAP 毛利率会有所反弹，但这四个季度的下降表明外部和内部竞争正在减少 Nvidia 所珍视的 AI-GPU 稀缺性。</p>
</div><h2>6. Export restrictions are choking off a key market</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>6. 出口限制正在扼杀一个关键市场</h2>
</div><p>Another reason to consider passing on Nvidia stock is because of ongoing export restrictions to China, which is one of the company's most important individual markets and generates billions of dollars in quarterly sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个考虑放弃 Nvidia 股票的原因是对中国的出口限制持续存在，而中国是该公司最重要的单一市场之一，每季度产生数十亿美元的销售额。</p>
</div><p>What makes export restrictions on high-powered AI chips so unique is that it's one of the few policies the Joe Biden administration and Donald Trump administration have seen eye-to-eye on. For three years, the federal government has stymied exports of Nvidia's top AI hardware to the world's No. 2 economy. With President Trump focused on national security and making the U.S. an artificial intelligence leader, it seems highly unlikely that these restrictions will be eased anytime soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对高性能 AI 芯片的出口限制之所以独特，是因为这是乔·拜登政府和唐纳德·特朗普政府少数几项意见一致的政策之一。在过去三年中，联邦政府一直阻碍 Nvidia 顶级 AI 硬件向世界第二大经济体的出口。考虑到特朗普总统专注于国家安全和使美国成为人工智能领导者，这些限制似乎在短期内不太可能放松。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjE4NDcvdGFyaWZmcy1lY29ub215LXRyYWRlLXdhci11cy1jaGluYS1vbmUtaHVuZHJlZC1kb2xsYXItY2FzaC10YXgtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F821847%2Ftariffs-economy-trade-war-us-china-one-hundred-dollar-cash-tax-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>7. Tariffs are a secondary threat to margins</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>7. 关税对利润的威胁是次要的</h2>
</div><p>In addition to Nvidia having key products restricted for export to China, President Trump's tariff and trade policy threatens to throw a monkey wrench into the company's expansion plans.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了英伟达的关键产品被限制出口到中国外，特朗普总统的关税和贸易政策还威胁到公司的扩张计划。</p>
</div><p>Implementing a sweeping global tariff, along with higher &#34;reciprocal tariff rates&#34; for select countries that have historically had adverse trade imbalances with America, runs the risk of worsening trade relations with key partners, and may incite anti-American sentiment toward certain goods. To boot, tariffs may be placed on semiconductors and/or various aspects of the AI supply chain, which can ultimately weaken Nvidia's gross margin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>实施全面的全球关税，以及对与美国历史上存在不利贸易失衡的特定国家提高 “对等关税率”，有可能加剧与关键合作伙伴的贸易关系，并可能引发对某些商品的反美情绪。此外，可能会对半导体和/或人工智能供应链的各个方面征收关税，这最终可能削弱英伟达的毛利率。</p>
</div><h2>8. Insiders haven't made a purchase in over 54 months</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>8. 内部人士在 54 个月内没有进行购买</h2>
</div><p>If you need another tangible excuse to pass on Nvidia stock, look no further than the company's insider trading activity, which is required to be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你需要另一个明确的理由来放弃英伟达的股票，不妨看看公司的内部交易活动，这些活动需要向证券交易委员会备案。</p>
</div><p>In December 2020, two sons of Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress each purchased 100 shares of Nvidia. This purchase, which occurred more than 54 months ago, is the last time an executive, board member, or direct family member, bought shares. In comparison, there have been 172 separate sales by insiders since Kress's Form 4 was filed in 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2020 年 12 月，首席财务官科莱特·克雷斯的两个儿子各购买了 100 股英伟达的股票。这次购买发生在 54 个月前，是最后一次有高管、董事会成员或直系亲属购买股票。相比之下，自克雷斯在 2020 年提交的 Form 4 以来，内部人士进行了 172 次独立的股票出售。</p>
</div><p>While there are plenty of reasons to sell a stock (not all of which are worrisome), there's only one reason to buy: you believe shares will head higher. If Nvidia's insiders aren't buying, why should you?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然有很多理由可以出售股票（并非所有理由都令人担忧），但购买股票的理由只有一个：你相信股票会升值。如果英伟达的内部人士不在买入，你为什么要买呢？</p>
</div><h2>9. Billionaires have been persistent sellers of Nvidia stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>9. 亿万富翁持续出售英伟达股票</h2>
</div><p>With one exception -- billionaire Chase Coleman of Tiger Global Management -- Wall Street's brightest billionaire money managers have been persistent sellers of Nvidia stock for more than a year. This includes Stanley Druckenmiller of Duquesne Family Office and Stephen Mandel of Lone Pine Capital, both of which completely exited their once sizable positions in this AI kingpin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了亿万富翁查斯·科尔曼（Chase Coleman）外，华尔街最聪明的亿万富翁投资经理在过去一年中一直在持续出售英伟达股票。这包括杜肯家族办公室的斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒和孤松资本的斯蒂芬·曼德尔，他们都完全退出了曾经相当可观的在这家人工智能巨头的持股。</p>
</div><p>Though billionaire investors are fully capable of being wrong, it's noteworthy that an overwhelming majority of big-money hedge funds have cashed in their chips or meaningfully reduced their positions, as is the case with David Tepper of Appaloosa, Philippe Laffont of Coatue Management, and Israel Englander of Millennium Management. Some of the above factors may have played a role in their decisions to sell or reduce their exposure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管亿万富翁投资者完全有可能犯错，但值得注意的是，绝大多数大型对冲基金已经兑现了他们的筹码或大幅减少了他们的持仓，正如阿帕卢萨的戴维·泰珀、科图管理的菲利普·拉丰和千禧管理的以色列·英格兰德所示。上述一些因素可能在他们决定出售或减少持仓时发挥了作用。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1ed36e9eefb920771bcf1979a5951eea.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1ed36e9eefb920771bcf1979a5951eea.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PS Ratio data by YCharts. PS Ratio = price-to-sales ratio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA PS 比率数据来自 YCharts。PS 比率=市销率。</p>
</div><h2>10. A key aspect of Nvidia's valuation still makes no sense</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>10. 英伟达估值的一个关键方面仍然没有意义</h2>
</div><p>Last but certainly not least, Nvidia's valuation isn't all it's cracked up to be. While its forward price-to-earnings ratio of 25 isn't egregiously high, its trailing-12-month (TTM) price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 24 remains in nosebleed territory, relative to other megacap stocks that have been on the leading edge of next-big-thing trends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后但同样重要的是，英伟达的估值并没有它所声称的那么好。尽管其前瞻性市盈率为 25 并不算过高，但其过去 12 个月（TTM）的市销率为 24，相对于其他在下一波趋势中处于领先地位的巨头股票来说，仍然处于高位。</p>
</div><p>For instance, key players in the evolution of the internet, such as <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Microsoft</strong>, and <strong>Cisco Systems</strong>, all topped out with TTM P/S ratios ranging from 30 to 43 before the dot-com bubble burst. Perhaps not coincidentally, Nvidia's TTM P/S ratio peaked at 42 last summer. Nevertheless, a P/S ratio of 24 is still far too high, based on historical data, to be sustainable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，互联网发展的关键参与者，如 <strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>微软</strong> 和 <strong>思科系统</strong>，在互联网泡沫破裂之前，其 TTM 市销率均达到了 30 到 43 的高点。或许并非巧合，英伟达的 TTM 市销率在去年夏天达到了 42。然而，基于历史数据，24 的市销率仍然过高，难以持续。</p>
</div>

10 Reasons to Pass on Nvidia Stock From an Investor of 27 Years Who's Seen This Story Play Out Before

- Nvidia 在 2023 年以来市值增加超过 3 万亿美元。  
- 文章列出 10 个理由，建议投资者放弃 Nvidia 股票。  
- 主要原因包括市场竞争加剧和内部创新周期影响。  

来自一位拥有 27 年经验的投资者的 10 个放弃英伟达股票的理由，他曾见过类似的故事如何发展